Transcripts For CSPAN DailyKos Previews 2018 Midterm Elections 20170811

This is our first time during this panel doing this pencil since 2014. We are grateful to our host at net roots nation. We will be taking questions from the folks in the room and folks online. You can tweak us to our twitter account and we will try to get your questions as well. The blogsrit of though, this panel has been about interactivity. Im going to give extreme the quick introductions about who we are and we are going to get to our questions because we think arming progressive with information about the elections they need to be fighting in is what is going to make this the most effective we can be heading into the 2018 midterms. My name is david nir, and i run the part of our website called daily kos elections. We have the morning digest which covers every key race for senate, house, governorships, and the down ballot including state legislatures, mayoral races, and more obscure than that. Obscure than that. We are responsible for daily kos candidate endorsement program. The team here is all involved in helping us choose who we decided to support and who we feel we should ask our community to support. On the panel, starting from my left is david nir. He works for the nfl. His specialty is International Elections and he is one of the main writers on our monthly International Elections digest, which is a great will if you want to know about what is going on. Just to my left is jeff singer. Jeff is our senior elections writer at daily kos elections. He has been with the team since 2013. Among other things, jeff is the guy responsible for calculating 2016residential president ial Election Results for every Congressional District. We are in the process of calculating it for every legislative district. Everywhere you see that Hillary Clinton won 58 in such and such a district, the reason we know that is because of jeff tossed efforts. Our newest member of the team yeah, i think that deserves a round of applause. [applause] david and it was member of our fiddler. Carolyn jarman once described it as the indie label of Democratic Party committees because there are so many thousands of legislative radiu races that knowing who to support and which seeks to target and which chambers to target, that is all very difficult information for normal civilians to come by, and that is what they are focused on. Those legislative races are so important. The legislators who create the the Congressional District that affect the house, and those gerrymandered, are part of why republicans are in charge for now. Yn, and sherol writes her own newsletter which covers exactly that. Goingson in the legislature and state governments throughout the country. Donner. Ight is Daniel Daniel is from portland, oregon. s focus is maps and charts and graphs of all kinds. He loves to visualize the data we pull together. In particular, he has been working on a lot of data visualizations about the special elections we have seen since trump was elected where trump has been far outperforming all manner of historical trends. Im sure he will want to talk about that later today. Last but not least, david jarman from seattle, washington. David has been working with the Daily Kos Elections Team since 2008. Among his many specialties, he loves to take deep dives into the demographic big pictures and in particular, he has been looking at the role that education played in defining the electorate in 2016 and what that will mean Going Forward. That is enough from us. We are going to turn it over to it looks like we have a microphone here. Just speak loudly. I will repeat the questions for the audience on livestream. Go ahead. Ok . I wanted to ask a question about a topic i am ashamed to say i do not know a lot about the background but omaha. What happened in omaha . What was the situation there . David the question is about the election in omaha. I presume youre talking about the omaha mayoral race that happened earlier this year. This was a difficult situation that daily kos found itself in. We endorsed a candidate, hes ath, who was running for the mayoral race in omaha. I will be very forthright. We did not do the Due Diligence on him that we should have. It turned out that he had a record on abortion rights that a felt was not acceptable for Progressive Community like daily kos to support him. I want to be very clear. We did not say that we thought that democrats should not support him and we should kick him out of the party. For daily kos, we have to be selective about the endorsements that we make. We were not as selective as we should have been. When we learned about his record on abortion, we chose to withdraw endorsement, but we did not attack him publicly, and we stated our reasons for the withdrawal, and we moved on. Heath mello wound up losing to the republican incumbent. There are folks that they mello lost because of what happened with the endorsement. Other organizations and folks were unhappy about mellos abortion stance. Others were unhappy about people making issue with his abortion stance. The math seems to be fairly simple. In the first round, the incumbent mayor was the republican. Ory were separated by two three points. The problem was, there was a third candidate running in the race who was also a republican. Mello andf between the republican mayor, the third candidate the other republican endorsed the incumbent, and ultimately, that was the margin that she prevailed by. So i am sure it did not help mellos campaign. In the end, it turned out the electorate in omaha in 2017 was republican for him to overcome, particularly facing a republican mayor. I actually have two, so feel free to answer the first. Alabamas Senate Special election. Any update on what is happening . So does john has some outside kennedy has some outside shot . That was sort of on the target list this year, but the first anyannouncements slightly more reputable people . David n. that is fine. We will get to both. We appreciate the short and to the point questions. Andspecial election recruitment in new yorks 11th district based in Staten Island. For the Alabama Senate race, the primary is this tuesday. If no one gets 50 takes majority there will be a runoff between the top two candidates. It is alabama. It is a very, very, very tough race. Nobody is going to deny that. We do have a democrat, a former u. S. Attorney, who has connections, some profile. If lightning strikes and then some, maybe he is in the right place at the right time to pull off something. He has a fews, people running against him, including Robert F Kennedy junior. He is not related to the kennedy family. There is nothing against the law saying you cannot run for office if you are not a real kennedy. [laughter] but the issue is, it is a pretty low energy race. The worry is that democratic voters will vote for the name they recognize even if he is not the Robert F Kennedy junior or anything like that. We have seen some democratic luminaries endorsed the jones jones. Doug no one is spending much money here. We are going to have to see on to say how things look, and maybe we will have a runoff. Hopefully, kennedy will not win outright, but we will have to see how that goes. Democrats are aware this is a problem. We are some effort into it. Can we turn off all cell phones, please . Thanks. District ons 11th Staten Island is the only part of new york city that trump won, and trump did very well in Staten Island. He went from a district that mccain had narrowly won, and went to trump by double digits. Republican incumbent is the former set mylan the district attorney. He did not indict the police ,fficer who killed eric garner and that was a big controversy. He won very easily. It is a very tough district. That mylan is for typical prototypical trump Staten Island is prototypical trump territory. He is an army veteran. His name escapes me at the moment, but he is a purple heart veteran. Profile,have fit the but it is a really tough district. New york city is the most tv adsve place to air then, except for parts of new jersey. It is one of those district where we should compete there, and if a year from now, we are talking about thank you. Hello, my name is Kathleen Allen and i am running for the house of representatives in georgias district. Seventh[applause] i am a progressive and my platform is prohealth. Four parts. We need to move to single payer. I would lose my job and i am ok with that. Trial lives, and i not, i mean respecting the life of the mother as well as the baby. And men, women, and children from before birth to old age. , in myeer, which is district, majority minority. And we need to make progress on issues in our nation. More that needs to be done before they vote on issues. They need to be more willing to do the hard work. My question to you is, how early in the process do you and yours a progressive endorse a progressive candidate . Do you wait until after qualifying . Do you wait until after the primary . Do you do first come, first serve . The question to us is how we go to our endorsement process. That is a terrific question. I am in the works of a lengthier post explaining it. I will try to answer in brief. Generally speaking, dailykos avoids endorsing in the primaries. It is not a hard and fast rule. But we usually do. The reason why is we dont want to be perceived as the big national group, big footing into a local race, telling people who to vote for when local folks can , do an excellent job of picking candidates. Typically, we wait until after primaries or until after a filing deadline if there is only one candidate running. , we probably will wait on our 2018 endorsements until 2018. That gets to the question of timing. I could go on for far too long on this question. There are so many criteria and so many factors. The one that i will mention is that generally speaking, we try to get involved in races we are not going to get huge amount of attention from organizations. The reason we do that is because if you are a toptier candidate running in a multimillion dollar race, they will come in with money for you. Even if we could raise 100,000 in small donations, which is a lot of money the bang for the , buck in a multimillion dollar race is going to be smaller than a lower tier race are there is less money involved. In the event there is a big wave we have a chance to capitalize on, we can help expand the playing field. If the deterrent policy hypothetically if the deed triple c hypothetically if dccc hypothetically is claiming seats, we want to claim the next. We can afford to take the risks. Our community is very open to backing candidates who are longer shots. I have always been very proud of it. Sometimes, the longer shots win. Thank you. I do work with the dmo. I am looking anyone on any hot cake on any big races. Most seats are mostly nonpartisan. We have about 22,000 municipal in november of this year. Anything that is not big city stuff that we are not aware of that we should get progressive in . [applause] the question is about which municipal races that are below the radar since there are so many of them, that progressives can or should get involved in this year. Past thatt was in the i think was a positive sign was in san antonio, where there were a number of democratic victories. In the spring, they included the most republican part of san antonio, the democrats were able to win. That certainly points towards positive results Going Forward in those places that are urban or suburban and historically republican. In terms of the 22,000 municipal races, it is difficult for us to cover those races, just as a reality of the number people in the races involved. I think there are some great blogs. Bleeding heartland in iowa. It does really great work at the state level and can drill down to a lower level than those of us looking federally and nationally can do. Chip in. One specific race is the detroit city clerks race that has come across the radar. Did he get through yesterday . Yes. In detroit, there have been voting problems from a number of years. The clerk there is being challenged by a young rising star, a guy named garlin gilchrist. That has come across the radar because of the importance of election administration. These races tend to get ignored. On a bigger level , secretary of state races are also important. On the municipal level, we times as many10 people on the panel to hit those, but we really try to Pay Attention to the nuts and bolts races, attorneys general, secretaries of state, the kinds of things that really matter and affect peoples daily lives but that we dont really think about. Thank you. Actually i would like to add the , level of excitement i have seen on the state legislative level, under most peoples radar, already does not this year a Record Number of , candidates are running. Candidates are stepping up to run all over the country. We will see the level of excitement manifest itself. I am really excited. Im jesse. It sounds like im just trying to stop you, but i really dont know whats going on in these races. [laughter] there is a state election in mississippi, but candidates dont run with party labels in special elections in mississippi, so i have not been certaintytermine with with the democrat is. Less obscurely, i have been heartened by the virginia races. I see that one dropped out. I was wondering if you had any insight if there is a replacement in the race . The question is there is a virginia legislative race for democrat a democrat who recently dropped out and do we have an insight to a replacement . The answer is yes. On tuesday, there is a local caucus to replace the seat. A woman who ran last cycle or the one before is setting up to run. It brings the total of women running in seats Hillary Clinton won in the Virginia House of to she won 17 10 11. Of the current seats. That is taken care of. , experience. Es excited about virginia this year. Mississippi, you make a good point in terms of the special elections and nonpartisan nature. Mississippi is a really special animal when it comes to state legislative elections. Do you know the state legislator can overturn the results, like they did a couple years ago . They are difficult to track because of the nonpartisan nature in terms of who is what down there, but its a really unique system. We are keeping an eye on it. For the folks watching on the livestream, you can tweet us. Next question. A question on dana rohrabacher. Because we have the top two primary system, would that change your mind to endorse . Talk thatn time with mark walker, multiple democrats could screw us over and have republicans advance. The question is about dana rohrabacher, very provladimir putin republican in california. The 39th district . 48, excuse me. That district is where arrested development is set. [laughter] so the question is whether democrats are concerned about not being able to get to the november general election past the top two primary, and would daily kos endorse in that race early as a result . It would require remarkable circumstances of the second republican candidate whose name is eluding me. We have no idea whether he has anything going for him, other than the ability to self fund. We would need a replay of the San Bernardino seat, where the republicans managed to split the republican share down the middle, and four democrats split the democratic share almost equally as well, so you have 25, 181818 situation. Its possible, but i wouldnt overly sweat it. I cannot talk about the endorsement process. I do not think we will endorse until after the primary, which may be too late. Theres also a chance that through the natural sorting process that one of the democrats develops a stronger profile, whether through beating the other one through fundraising or just natural campaign talents. We will wait and see. Unfortunately. The next question . Good morning. Im jim. I am running for congress in new jerseys fourth district. [applause] thank you. You may be called twoandahalf years ago when governor christie screamed at that guide to sit down that guy to sit down and shut up. That was me. [laughter] [applause] that is my political calling card in new jersey. Most people know me as the sit down and shut up guy. I am running on a very progressive campaign. I was a delegate for bernie sanders. Full,unning on a very bold progressive campaign. I appreciate the fact you hold on not endorsing until primaries are over. I understand the difficult nature of it. I have 11 months until that happens, what would be your top three suggestions for someone like myself to engage the Daily Kos Community . I write somewhat regularly. Are there things you would say to do to help raise my profile within the community and get the support im going to need to win the race . That is an excellent question. What should a candidate who is interested in an endorsement to from daily kos do to raise the profile on the website . You mentioned you had been writing on the website. Thats the number one way to get people excited. Campaigns reach out was very often. I say if you do not already, create an account. I recommend you say for congress in the username so that they know you are running for congress. Post regularly. The thing that people are familiar with, it is a very big site. Theres a lot of content churning through. Not everything you write is going to get attention. Its not possible. That is true even for the stuff that we write. The rest of the time, its all right, but it moves on. Try to not get discouraged. Keep posting. Also, responding comments to users. People have questions. Even if they dont have questions, just remarks, engage with them. That is how you will find supporters in your district or state. They will want to volunteer. Those are the best ways. Also, share the stuff you write on social media, possibly with your supporters directly on your email list. Having your supporters come to daily kos is a good thing. Not all of them will be familiar with it. You do not want to say, everyone, sign up and say how awesome i am. You dont want that to look like sock puppetry. You want it to be organic. Those are things i would emphasize. When the Community Gets excited about someone, we take notice. That factors into our opinions. I would also suggest using the comment section, just not on your own posts. Try and draw the connection between way you are doing and what the topic of the post is. Is the way to build yourself as a member of the community in Good Standing and not just being that guy who is sort of there to raise attention for himself. Like david said, everything will flow organically from that. Plug,i may do a shameless i would like to have all you read my stuff on daily kos. Thank you. [applause] Josh Berenson with analyst institute. I am not running for congress. [laughter] i have a question about democratic over performance in some of the special elections. We are in a moment where democratic enthusiasm is high. Democratic turnout is high. My concern is that that effect is larger when overall turnout is low. I am wondering if you guys have looked at democratic over performance versus turnout . As you have been telling the special elections and looking at it . The question is we have seen democratic over performance in the special elections, but how much of it has to do with turnout in general for the special elections is lower . Have we been analyzing it . I have taken a look at special elections going back to 2004. Just trying to answer that question among others. I believe the answer is the special elections in a midterm year or a president ial year are pretty good guides for what is going to happen during the general election. It is a row concern. Real concern. Is it just low turnout when the other side is not bothering to come out . We do well, but they will all, anyways. The answer is they may all come out anyways in the general election, but even more democratic leaders, out. For instance, democrats had really good years in special elections in 2006 and 2008, and really good years in the general elections in 2006 and 2008. To 2017, far better than 2006 two dozen eight as far as special elections go. One measure i have been working on. If we had a general election this year, id be pretty excited. A lot can happen in the next year. Especially given the sort of leader we have in this country now. Keep your fingers and toes crossed. We will see what comes next year. Were going to take a question here from online. Its from joe. He asks what are the key states , for flipping legislatures in 2018 . Well. So glad you asked. Democrats have a lot ground to make up in state legislation. We have a target rich environment in what is shaping up to be a very good year. Mostly special elections that we spoke of, state special elections. Majority have been further down the ballot. Those indicators are very good. We flipped two seats in oklahoma. [applause] top targets for 2018, lets not get ahead of 2017. There are elections happening this year as well. The Virginia House of delegates, democrats are in a pretty severe minority there. 17 seats down. Theres a chance to make inroads there. That impacts things Like Committee make up. Democrats will have a lot more power if they can pick up more seats. In term of 2018, include places like minnesota house. Both chambers in New Hampshire, the maine senate. This november we have a chance to pick up in Washington State senate with a special election there. If for some reason we dont, thats a top target for 2018. If we do, it will be a narrow one seat majority. We want to pick up more to solidify that. The Colorado State senate has a one seat republican majority. We need to flip that. 2018 is shaping up to be good year to do that. In light of which seats on the ballot, about exactly half the chamber is up in 2018. How about thoughts on two cycle targets . Two cycle targets includes the michigan house. It is one of the most heavily gerrymandered chambers in the country. But democrats keep winning more votes for the statewide house over there. It is a prime multicycle opportunity if we can keep up , the Democratic Energy were seeing for 2018 and 2020. Other multicycle targets include places like the Florida State senate. Those are not great, but not terrible. Given that florida is pretty evenly 5050 state statewide they have a real chance there. , that will be huge in terms of redistricting. There are many house seats in florida. Virginia is a multicycle target. Always an Election Year in virginia. Literally always. Wisconsin state senate is another possible multicycle opportunity. Dont sleep on iowa either. It seems to be turning more republican. People said that a decade or so as well. See if we can flip that back. One for 2018, you mentioned North Carolina . North carolina state house. Forgot the i would never forget the new york state senate. Funny situation. Its not funny hah hah in North Carolina. Its never funny like that in North Carolina. There will be new elections on new state legislative maps in North Carolina. We dont know what the maps look like yet. They might not be much better than now. They cant be much worse. We have a chance to break the republican supermajority at least in the state house. Not in both chambers. If not in both chambers. That would help the democratic governor a lot. Dont sleep on North Carolina either. Next question. Nancy jones. I got to tell you that im little overwhelmed at the depth and breadth of analytics expertise on this panel. I appreciate you. You read you a lot. Most of what i know about elections outside of where i live comes from you guys. Thanks a lot for that. I have a kind of metaquestion that ive been wondering about. I wonder if you all about in about it. In following your work, im aware that some of the races that are going on have been nationalized. Instance, ossoff, and others. Others are not Getting National attention. From what i see, i dont dig into it that deep. Democrats are winning where they are nationalized. Im wondering if you have any numbers or if you thought about that. The question is, whether democrats are faring better in 2017 elections and races that do not appear to have been nationalized versus races that have been but gotten nationalize the jon ossoff race. I think there is a degree of. Ifference you can see i think georgia sixth is a great example of that. Where the incredible enthusiasm and activism among democrats created a response among the vote voters in the district, causing them to probably turn out higher than they would have had. At the same time, theres only so much to control it. Its not something we can dwell on too much. At the same time, theres only so much a we can do to control it. Its not something we should dwell on too much. For example, kansas was another situation it was very under the radar. The Republican Party came in spent money, did robocalls, ran ads at the end. May have had helped to save that seat. Ended up around six points. Because of increased republican turn out. That was something they did because they needed to do to win the seat. Thats beyond our control. We cant i dont think we want to advance any activities to keep republican turnout down. Our goal is to get voters out and get the voters who believe the same as we do out and hope there are more of them. I think there are. I think we have to leave Republican Voters to republican. If they dont turn out, thats great for us in terms of winning the election. If the republicans spend a lot of money to turn out voters we have to deal with that. Other thing i would say, particularly the congressional high turnout viewing. People have been very interested in them. Theyve been extremely republican areas. Fact it was six points in kansas , and four in the georgia six, and in montana, very close. Even though if feels not great to lose them because republicans do turn out at high levels. Theres still really good news. One last time. If you are watching the live stream and you want to send a question, tweet to us dk elections. If you are sitting in the room and shy, you can also tweet at us. [laughter] next question. As somebody who work in the crazy New Hampshire Speakers Office and Legislature Im , looking ahead, were seeing more talk about redistricting and how these folks are elected. New hampshire has these wonderful districts that help make the elections very swingy. 10 seats flip one way or the other. They also as weve seen over the last six or eight years, produced Sexual Assault winners that they win seats and hold seats. The boston bombing defender that held a seat. She was a state rep. Seriously. And one of trumps go to veterans advocates. I we doing anything to educate people are we doing anything to educate people to do the data, to look at what a legislative body should be looking like electorally before we get there . That law is going to have to get through that chamber if its going to be changed. So the question is about New Hampshires state house which is one of the craziest state legislative chamber in the country. Just to put it in context, it has 400 members based on New Hampshires population, if the u. S. Congress had the same ratio of population to members, we would have 96,000 members of congress. [laughter] that get paid 100 a year. Actually i like that idea. ,[laughter] general topic i think, how do we educate people for such small races, and how do we avoid electing all these truly awful people . Anyway, New Hampshire is a laboratory for that. Any takers . Thatthink its fair to say well, i dont just think it is definitely fair to say that you New Hampshire New Hampshire is unique. With so few voters in each district and such a sort of low rate of return for your Office Holder in term of building career in politics and being member of the New Hampshire , it is not the springboard that it might be elsewhere. Its partially about education. Its partially about the folks who step up to run year after year or also high rate of turnover in the house in New Hampshire. Having to find new folks to step forward and make that Time Commitment and making the commitment to run. Even in small districts running , for office is not easy. Its not just about voter education. It is also about recruitment. Having good democrats in these districts against these crazy republicans, is going to help keep crazy republicans out of office. Im glad that New Hampshire is special. One thing i want to add about New Hampshire, this is a place where the districts are small. The candidates can meet pretty much all the voters. It might seem easy to say you should really try hard to win these seats. Heres something that is crazy. In 2006, we had democratic wave, the New Hampshire legislature, the democrats took control of both houses First Time Since 1870s. All republican incumbents that night they were on vacation. You cant take your election for granted more than going on vacation on election night. When i say you should really try hard, some of these people win and they dont try hard. One other thing i would add. As youaid, its said, if they get paid 100 a year. You get the quality of the legislature that you pay for. I think thats something weve seen in state legislatures and beyond that, when officials are paid not like other officials , you dont get quality people who do it fulltime, because you can afford to. You end up with people who are independently wealthy. People who can afford to take the opportunity to put in time and effort into running for and winning and doing legislative work, because theyre not getting any income for it. When you have 400 people in a small state and not paying them anything, youll end up with bad apples. Theres only so much to be about that without changing how much you value your state legislature. Its not a popular stand to take. Nobody like the idea of elected officials going out making whole bunch of money being elected official. They need to if its a serious job, they need to be paid like a serious person. 100 a year is not one. Well take a question from the internet here. From bill. What is your take on maine s second Congressional District . Is that weasel bruce vulnerable . [laughter] yes, bill, if you run. I think he is vulnerable by virtue being a very close swing district. Also, i think in special Election Results especially the , legislative special Election Results, we are seeing a lot of snap back from whiter or lower educated districts like maine second. Not in maine specifically that throughout the midwest. I think the special Election Results are showing us that the voters are not permanently lost to the trumpish version of the gop. They are having second thoughts. That would be my main concern with maine second. Whether we can get these voters back. I think we can based on the legislative results we have seen. Maine second, its an odd district. It includes rural portions of maine, bangor, north of portland. It was in democratic hands for a long time until 2014 wave. Debonair,e, the crazy governor, won that also. Trump was carrying the district by ten points. Obama also. It by nine points. It seems special but some rural areas shifted are shifting back. Thething with paulson is, first two terms, he put his head down. This time hes getting his head into trump things. Handlingt been questions about his vote for trumpcare very well at all. We have good bases in the rural part of the district. I think this is one of the areas where in a good year, it can ship back. Maine does tend to like reelect republican incumbents if theyre moderate enough. I think some of it its going to come home. Some of the disguise is coming off on him. I think this is a winnable district definitely. Next question. This is a chance for you to talk a little bit about turnout. My name is doug, im with the flip the 14, the California Organization to flip all 14 republican congressional seats. Our primary strategy, if you will, is turn out. Difference between president ial turn out and midterm turn out is as much as 25 to 35 . If we could achieve closer to a president ial turn out and get closer to the surge we have seen in special elections, we think at least 12 to 14 of the seats are within reach. I would be interested in your thoughts on that formulation. Is, what is the role of turnout in shrinking the turnout gap between midterms and general elections, and what kind of focus or importance that plays in Going Forward into 2018 . I would add one more thing. In california, because of the top two primaries, its possible at the top of the ticket, the gubernatorial race, theres only two democrats. Relative to republicans, we have an opportunity in turnout. Turnout is a very broad topic. I guess its a little bit difficult to address. Ill look at it through specific lens of the georgia six race. Which im sure everyone paid lot of attention to and watching at home. In that race, jon ossoff set a record for democratic turnout in a special election. The problem was, republicans also set a record. This sort of touches on some other questions that weve answered before. I think david beard was talking about this in particular. That race did not work out for us precisely because it was such a republican district. The rest of us, the thing that i think got lost in the western wednesday morning quarterbacking and the blame game was that there are so many feeds that are then thatuer district, including the california district. Have the same surge, even if republicans also have a big surge, hours is bigger. Our surge is bigger. The trump results in georgia six were very close. There are a lot of slinky districts out there. I think if the enthusiasm and intensity keeps up, and donald trump keeps being donald trump, then we can kind of keep lee leapfrogging republicans. That will mean good things, especially in the house. I would add that it is important to think about three different buckets. Democratic voters who may or may not turnout, swing voters who might vote for either side, or republicans might vote either side. Turnout. Its true that you could see some problems with republican turn out. Given trumps unpopularity, the senate races, you could see a problem with republican turnout, but it is outside of our control. If that happens, ok. Not, we should in general focus on getting our turnout is best as it can be. Probably not going to be all the way to president ial level. But the closer we can get to that thats better. ,obviously going after swing , voters in the district. The republican vote will be republican vote is. Its outside our control. Theres a question here from online. The question is, what are your models telling you about 2018 for the house and senate . Last year and also in 2014, we ran polling based models to try to forecast the outcome of the elections on the president ial side, we along with everyone else were incorrect in our predictions. But on the senate side, the polls turned out to be quite accurate. There werent really upsets in the senate races. Theres not enough data on the house side for us not enough polling data to monitor house races. Its also too early in the cycle. We havent had all the retirements well have. I do think that we can sort of answer more broadly what we see happening in 2018. One thing you can do is look at the generic house ballot , which by itself is vague. It just asks people who do you want to see in charge of the house. We dont have our own model through daily kos yet, but a poly site professor has one to use this direct data. If you plug ten point generic ballot were seeing, at least 30 point gain in the house, which you probably know is enough to flip it. 30 seat gain, right. Yes, 30 seat gain. The question is, are historic precedents really applicable here . This is probably the most gerrymandered map weve seen with the democratic wave. Its question how high is the levy that theyve built against the wave . We dont really cant really say with certainty because theres not much historical precedence for that. We may not have a model but we have been noticing numbers coming in that are extremely favorable as far as a number of candidates who already declared house races and amount of money theyre raising. These house races arent set yet. We will take a look at these numbers later on, the third or fourth quarter, when you have a better idea of who is running where. That together with the special election, economy mentioned before, just off the charts compared to anything weve seen in the century. Since 2004, 2002. Its looking good right now. If we had the Midterm Election this year, id be really excited. A lot can happen in the next year. I think its even more than luck. We always say that a lot could happen in the next year, but with this guy in the white house, much more than a lot can happen in the next year. Worse foret a lot them, or there are scenarios we could figure out. The volatility is much higher i thinkthe volatility is much higher than we encountered before. Probably since the 1860s. Next question. My name is peter here from boston with my family, including my teenage son. [applause] we are not political, but we do hold resistance meetings once a month just to keep our sanity. I have a question about the special elections and hoping to tap on your expertise. We watch them in montana, South Carolina and georgia. Disappointed but understanding that the trends were favorable. Whats your opinion about whether these candidates that came close but didnt win, should they run again as rematches during the general election or do you have data to suggest that probably its time for a different candidate to compete . I dont know the answer but id be interested to hear your responses. The question is, the candidates who ran in the various congressional special elections this year, do we have opinions on whether they should run again or whether democrats should look to new options . I think its not clear. On the one hand, theres not a lot of great history on special election winners losing at the next general election. Once somebody wins a special election, they tend to get the benefit of the doubt for their first general election. I think memories of the special election are still in peoples head. They tend to just they voted in the special. I think we separate them. Kansas four and South Carolina race, those are really tough districts. I think both candidates ran incredible campaigns as incredible you can do in such a tough, deep red district. I think they would probably get a benefit of the doubt. Theres probably not a lot of candidates rearing to go in districts that are pretty deep red. With montana and georgia six, i think i dont think theres anything inherent against a candidate running again. If they raise money, ran reasonably close, its got something they decide to do. I dont think theres anything wrong with it. I think they are potentially winnable races. If there are other candidates who are also strong, i dont think theres anything wrong with that happening in the primary and seeing who is coming out on top. [inaudible] one of the oklahoma special elections a candidate lost in , the 2016 regular election, won the 2017 special election. I think that is a reflection of the changing political thing times were in. You can look at how poorly democrats doing in all the special elections previously leading up to and on election day in 2016. You seen a big shift as trump got one office and entered into office towards democrats. I think thats a reflection of shifting the political winds. I think thats something its a little different going from general to a special which is lot more volatile from a special to a general. Next question. Im heather. I missed the first 15 minutes so i apologize if this has come up already. I wanted to talk about the midwest and get youre thoughts specifically on the senate that we have in wisconsin and ohio and michigan and pennsylvania what happened last year, and where you think the races stand. Also given that most of those senators are pretty well liked and have varying degrees of competition, we can debate about that for a while. And theyre all key governors race states as well. Just love your thoughts on those. The question is, what we see happening in the Key Senate Races where Democratic Senators in midwestern states, many of which won by trump, how we think they will be fairing in 2018 . These are states that trump narrowly won. In a midterm year, we should be ok. That said, things can go wrong in these races. The republicans dont seem to have really top tier candidates in any of them in michigan, we might get kid rock as republican candidate. [laughter] its absurd and it might not happen. But we said that two years ago and look where we are now. That said, hes probably not the type of person that republicans are dreaming of. In pennsylvania, bob casey, the democratic incumbent, is pretty well liked. Hes won twice. But that got trump, was still narrow. The Top Republican candidates, he hasnt declared yet. Representative lou bartletta. He is basically the pretrump pennsylvania. Small town and a passed antiimmigrant measures. It was pretty bad. Hes basically volunteering to test whether the trump model can work in pennsylvania for people who arent trump in 2016. I doubt it will. Well see. Hes at least someone the white house likes. He can probably raise a lot of money. But if trumps Approval Ratings are looking remotely like they are now, people are not going to want a minitrump. As for other races, wisconsin, republicans do have potentially interesting candidate, kevin nichols. Hes a veteran. He has rich money backers. He was head of the College Democrats of america in 2000. There are speeches of him praising al gore. At the Democratic Convention i hear ,[laughter] he did come out ahead of that saying, i was a democratic. I experienced reality look how , smart i am now. Well see what happens there. [laughter] theres some other republicans talking about running there. But nobody is really there. I love your impersonation of a republican meat head. [laughter] show of hands, does north dakota count as the midwest or is that great plains . Midwest, raise your hand. Great plains . Ok. Lets get Heidi Heitkamp then. [laughter] next question. Lala, imname is cofounder of the district project. We are super excited to be playing in a bunch of virginia races this year. Aside from the surgeon excitement and national interest, which is obviously super awesome in state legislatives, are there any other trends that youre seeing where we are now that are pretty promising as we look forward to 2018, and or are there any sort of trends or things that you are looking at aligning and dashed down the line and concerned about . What earth trends were looking at in 2017 and 2018 . You mentioned the excitement in virginia. That is a real thing. I touched on this before. Its not just excitement among the electorate that weve seen manifest in down ballot special elections across the country, but also just in folks stepping up to run. Running for office is hard. You have to raise money, you have to knock on doors. It is not a cake walk. Its not fun. It is a rude awakening for some folks who want to run for office. They hung in there and they kept running for office. This dramatic up tick in folks stepping up to run in virginia, is already happening in congressional races all across the country. That is another really positive indicator that shocked me this year in virginia. Its sort of a sub issue of that. The number of women stepping forward to run this year is historic in virginia. I think well continue to see that. More than half of the challengers taking on republicans in state delegates in virginia this year are women. Its truly remarkable. I look forward to that trend continuing. I think it will. Nothing this administration has done, nothing republicans have done since theyve held all the reins of power in federal government has helped women. State legislatures attack women attacks on women have been longstanding and ongoing since republicans have gotten power in i think that women who already 2010. Active in their communities are stepping up and taking that next crucial in difficult step of running for office. I think that will continue. Also point to fundraising is really good indicator of where we are now. Just in the last quarter, we saw a lot of people who havent run for office before are in the suburban districts pulling in 400,000 and 500,000 a quarter. Despite not having held office before and they dont have preexisting networks, so that is a good indicator. Money we all want to get out of politics, but we are playing on existing rules right now. That is important to raise early money. It is just good to see a lot of candidates running in these districts that we havent fielded as a serious democrat in a long time. The georgia seven, just north of us here, that district has barely been getting any attention for a long time. That said, there are some districts that are suing districts swing districts where we dont have any notable candidates yet. Im seeing pennsylvania eighth in the philly suburbs. Thats one that is really close to romney and trump. I dont want to say its all sunshine and rainbows. But it is a good trend to see people who are running incredible campaigns in these ignore districts. On that note, two sets of numbers i will throw up quickly from a new website called project435. Com. 435 is the number of seats in the house. They have looked at how Many Democrats and how many republicans have filed with the fec to run for the house. Filing paperwork doesnt nestle necessarily mean youll run. Its a necessary first step. There are 241 republican held seats in the house. Of those, we have Democratic Candidates who filed 191 of them. Thats 79 of all republican held seats, 50 left where we still need candidates. Its only august 2017. Democrats only have 194 seats if the house and republicans by contrast, have only filed in 62 of those districts. Thats just 32 . I think in aggregate it shows where the enthusiasm lies. Its not just the perceptions that recruitment is not, but the hard numbers really back it up. To the gerrymandering question. Do you know which states we can get a ballot measure on to do like what tell if i had it and get an independent commission to decide the lines . And which do we have to vote out the governor to get that kind of change . Thats a great question. In which states can citizens put a ballot measure on the ballot to require independent redistricting verses which states where you actually have to vote out the republicans and vote in democrats . The latter group is much bigger than the former. Stephen wolf, also a member of our team, has done a lot of work to answer this question. The number of states where we can do ballot measures is small. Ohio would be an example. I think michigan is heavily gerrymandered where the initial process is allowed. An important point to make in terms of ballot measures, most of the states, especially gerrymandered states ballot , measures have been attempted. Sometimes multiple times. Regardless of whether or not the remedy is available, i think its not something to be relied on. Voting out republicans in the state legislature and governor s office is much more reliable way of ensuring fair redistricting. And with a host of other issues too, like voting rights. Sometimes you will have to vote out democratic incumbents because some democrats would rather have safe seats in the minority forever than risk their seats to get a majority. We have seen in ohio where during 2011 and 2012, democrats did sabotage attempts to put this on the ballot. In pennsylvania, you did have some Democratic Party leaders who worked with republicans to do this to the district. They went to safe districts. This is worthwhile endeavor. You need to work around the democratic establishment. Or at least not rely on them. Fast something we definitely need to be aware of. I pulled up stevens map. He had a good map of states where this is possible. Total number of states where this could happen is eight states where you could get a ballot measure on to create independent redistricting commissions. The problem is most of them are very small. They might be good governance. Putting a ballot measure on, thats not a good use of resources. Big two is michigan and ohio where thats possible. Theres a group in ohio trying this now. Florida is a possibility there. They did pass call Fair Districts amendment a number of years ago. The problem is, the Legislature Still has the power to draw the districts and they just creates it just creates restrictions on what they are allowed to do. The problem is, this is what republicans do when theyre told they cant do something. They do it anyway, they wait to get sued. This happened over and over again, particularly in North Carolina, but texas as well. They have had all kinds of maps thrown out this year. The problem is we spend years and years with republicans winning elections under these illegally gerrymandered line. In florida, it would be great if we have a proper redistricting commission. There probably isnt an appetite anymore over there. Also you need to 60 for a measured pass, not just 50 . I think probably, focusing on elections, individual elections is the better place to focus. We only have a couple of minutes left. Going to take questions real quick. Would it be all right if we took the question behind you . You guys built some great tools. In previous versions of daily kos, they were much more accessible to get to. Is there any work being done to make them much more accessible for people who want details . The question is about the tools daily kos options make available, being more visible and prominent on the site. The answer is yes. We are working hard to try to bring those back last year. The day after the election. We had a big graph saying to win, wenton, 88 got, we have to take that down. [laughter] unfortunately, that meant all the links to all our data tools and stuff, jeff has worked on and others worked on, everyone, well be bringing those back just as soon as we can. Last question. Thank you. Jim again, running for the United States house of representative, new jersey fourth district. I am running against congressman noshow smith. The jerseyning in congress, he has not lived in the state since 1983. Virginiaget tuition in schools because they lived there for so long. They get instate tuition. He has not held townhall meeting in our district for 25 years. Its time for us to retire this 37 year incumbent. Im curious to know, the district leans republican with the pbi reading of r plus 7. We have 126,000 democrats and 148,000 republicans. 220,000 plus unaffiliated voters, where i think theres a room for organizing and winning this district. Have you done any analysis on new jerseys fighting fourth, and if you have can you please , share it with me . [laughter] the question is, have we done analysis on specifically on new jerseys fourth Congressional District . And the answer is, we probably already have shared the maine weve done, which would be the president ial results by Congressional Districts. In that district, donald trump 44 Hillary Clinton. It was a little bit closer four years earlier when mitt romney won it 54 to 45 for barack obama back in 2012. What we will also be doing once jeff is finished with this beast of project calculating the president ial results for these thousands and thousands of legislative districts, were going to go back and were going to look at the other statewide in 2016 and break those down along lines or congressional or legislative district could districts. 2017 newlso do the jersey gubernatorial election. Expect to have it before election day. [laughter] it is time, thank you everyone for coming. For live all the staff streaming us. Thanks to the w other candidates respond could make a difference. Advance to a runoff. President trumps remarks are next. Writer talks, a about the use of Artificial Intelligence anin the workpl yo and youe. And later at 4 30 p. M. , former Vice President al gore of forward that u. S. Join us for live coverage of the net roots nation governments conference on cspan. President trump talking about north korea, the opioid epidemic. The remarks came before the jersey. Ee new President Trump hello,