Transcripts For CSPAN Key Capitol Hill Hearings 20140606

Then the announcement about the posts 2014 engagement in afghanistan was somewhat preceded by the other views that came out about the business that took lace. Were going to see all of that in the context of relations in the week forward. We are happy to have a ofmidable panel here individuals who are not only expert but who have worked as petitioners as well to share as their views. There is news from afghanistan that eats popping a, i watched this morning Suicide Attack on one of the brothers. Thankfully, it failed. Are dead andians many injured. I would like to start by panelists first. Then we will have each one of them give their presentation for a few minutes. Afterward we will have an opportunity to have a discussion amongst ourselves if anyone feels the need to do so. We will turn it over to you for questions and answers. Please, turn off your cell phones if you have not already. Live in america and by cspan1 i believe. Everything that you say is on the record. [laughter] let me start here. On the right is chris. Fellow at thenior center for new america security in washington. A few days ago he was here with the department of defense. Had four towards in afghanistan. Coauthor of a book called leadership. Book thes a counterinsurgency challenge which some of you may have heard about. Lockhart. Ve clare she dealt with afghanistan issues for many years. Direct or and cofounder of the state of effectiveness which also works to support the emergence of attentional functions in ways that are accountable. She also works at the Aspen Institute which works to build opportunities to create jobs. Coauthored this wellknown fractureduilding a world. She has written numerous articles on various issues dealing with the development with others. Have ronaldst we neumann, the president of the American Academy of diplomacy. He was former secretary of state. He served as American Ambassador to afghanistan from july 2005 april 2007. Before that he served in baghdad with the coalition for authority. Embassyse u. S. National command. An important job. Not very easy, i am assuming. The author of the other war winning and losing in afghanistan. He has been a follower of the issue for many years as was his father, former ambassador nue eumann. With that i would like to start with chris. With your experience dealing. D. In the recent announcements by president obama that the u. S. Post2014 had a twoyear plan that calls for 9800 forces, a mixture of educators and maybe antiterrorism forces, but will forcesed by some nato and whose job is to help the someans and also do counterterrorism work. Policiyview, this new y is a solid one . Doable . What do you think will be the end result by 2016 . Thank you very much for your kind introduction and questions. I would to think the new america foundation. Ive know for several years clare and ron. Today is the 70th anniversary of dday. We remember the dday veterans today and what they have sacrificed and what they did to make that effort to maket hat that fight for freedom a success. How will all of the act tours in this particular conflict be remembered 70 years later . Then we do other things reasonably possible. Think how we get a peaceful outcome will be an interesting question as we reflect on dday. The 2009 diplomatic clinical and military surge or bite an opportunity for a successful outcome in afghanistan. I would give it to cheers two cheers. Time will tell whether it deserves three cheers or not. On the positive side, it does by time and space for the Afghan National Security Force Maturity Model rtto continue to grow and develop. Aresecurity efforts necessary but not sufficient for success. The security efforts alone will eventually run into a last ceiling of political dysfunction, contest for power, and external or internal neglect or malignment. The key is for this effort to be comecess, you have to online and have to work in concert toward a sustainable solution in afghanistan. Are unlikely to overthrow the Afghan Government anytime soosoon. The Afghan Government is unlikely to force the taliban to the renter anytime within the next couple of years. The biggest threats to the Afghan Government and the stability to afghanistan in the near term are probably not the taliban but probably a political and fiscal crisis that unravels the government and plunges afghanistan into chaos. Is thatrious concern we have postponed the day of reckoning. You get a new perfect storm developing in 20162 thousand 17 20162017 ash strips go down to zero in troops are unwilling to bankroll what they may see as a perpetual conflict without end. That is the very difficult scenario i think coming. Forward. In that downside scenario, al qaeda is the biggest winner. In aare the biggest winner perpetual conflict scenario. It allows the time and space to come back into afghanistan and sanctuary. Al qaedas biggest nightmare is distancesthat themselves from al qaeda and turns toward the International Community. I think the key counterterrorism strategy is certainly pressure all ofnetworks through efforts and of the the political and diplomatic efforts will be the decisive ones in the counterterrorism piece in preventing al qaeda from coming back into afghanistan. Afghanistan right now is the classic is news to limit. Both into ondeck circle to afghanistan recognize the benefits of cooperation for peace and stability but none to cooperate with them. You get this status quo. It could lead to the downside. Said success is entirely possible and i believe that. I think there are five keys to a successful outcome that have come to fruition that will be to a peaceful and stable afghanistan longterm. The first one is the Afghan National Security Force a battlefield performance. Theres no good solution in afghanistan without the Afghan National Security Force being strong, it confident, and able take advantage of the gains. Performance is critical to that aing the taliban resurgence is unlikely in order to avoid perpetual on foot theyll have to come into this. What is the election. Well have a second round tear and over a week that will determine the presidency. The second part of the political position will be the peaceful transition of power. The first peaceful transition of power in afghan history. An ordinary credit to president karzai in the Afghan People. The most difficult will be the political and Economic Reforms that will be necessary to put afghanistan on a better treasure three. Better trajectory. The 13th two success is regional diplomacy. Regional International Actors assist intogether to cooperation on managing competition or creating stability. That is going to have to happen. International actors will replace this as a higher priority than some of their interests that may be trending toward instability. Number four is a Peace Process. I believe there has to be 0152016 timehe 2 frame which will give voters infidence that stability afghanistan is a manageable risk rather than an uncertain gamble. Conflictplus years of and all the Afghan People have gone through, a Peace Process is hard to imagine. We have just gone through this controversy over the bergdahl, a boat bergdahl Prisoner Exchange. Or five guantanamo exchangees multiply that many times over and you can begin to get a sense of the anxieties in the emotions that go with the peace ross says. After the taliban on reaching that was misogynistic and tyrannical. Ofwould be gross violations human rights that happened not only in that aerobic in the other area as well. That will be tremendously difficult. It is very necessary for afghans to come together and determine the peaceful political feature. Not many afghans can do that. Finally is economics selfreliance. Afghanistan relies on significant investment from the International Community. That will have to decline over time so they can become canonically sustainable. That will require infrastructure, Economic Development as well as conditions under which defense spending can reduce substantially. I would say finally afghanistan has a real opportunity to succeed. I was just in afghanistan a couple of weeks ago. I was visit an adult womans literacy center. 1825yearold women who never wouldve had the opportunity under the taliban to finish high school. There they were. All of them have been affected by this conflict. They have lost loved ones, they know people who have been wanted and killed. They are all in class. They all want to complete their education. The teachers had not been paid in 14 months. They do not have any electricity. They do not have the right materials. All of them are passionate about what they are doing. Dreams and aspirations, i want to be an engineer, doc or, lawyer. I want to be a teacher. When you put all of those together, for then those dreams and aspirations are not about making money. It was about fixing what they perceive to be the ills of afghan society. Casetainly hope for their in the case of the Afghan People collectively do what is necessary for a successful and stable outcome in afghanistan. Thank you, chris. The new timetable announced by president obama and also the timetable expected by nato soon and given the numbers and resources per chicago and per tokyo, the two International Conferences that came out with some figures on what it might cost to support afghanistan, you, not only as an expert in state building but the as a member of organization cosponsoring this you go toell, when go tomakers, when you legislators today, what would you tell them in terms of what success andefined what defined failure . What would you tell them today given the new timetable, conditions, and what is happening in afghanistan and what the u. S. Has and will be doing . Thehris has described factors that would contribute to success extremely well. Headlines in the media focus on the risks and threats that are negative. That has obscured a picture of real hope in opportunity. Most of all because of the new generation who are coming of age who want nothing more than peace and stability. They are at the forefront of change and take enormous risks themselves. An organization that is devoted to trying to come up with a much more nuance understanding of support and the opportunities and possibilities in trying to promote a more balanced understanding of what is happening. Theery much agree that concern for many afghanistans insecurity. Earlier, sohn said if i cannot walk to buy bread at the end of the street, if the female orbers cannot go to there walk my children to school, none of these things, even food and education, matter. Shot inafraid of being the back of the head, nothing matters. This is becomi has become something less right. Security matters. Fastert the timetable is than some have understood or more, this is going to put imperative on the continued support that were made in lisbon and chicago for the years to come. It is absolutely foundational. Having said that, if you support security alone, it can lead to others. It cannot be achieved through oppression. We have seen this happen in many countries in africa. The dramatic, the economic, the political functions in that area, this is for afghans to define and determine. Right ands have the responsibility to lead their country. As there will be any president in place in the coming months and their place to determine the right mix of policies to determine the stability, International Assistance is going to continue to be important as a bridge to that time in the future with a country can raise its own revenue. I will spend a little time reflecting on what i think is important. There are four factors. Financial. Portant is the one that does not it as much focus is the economic conditions. Essentially, the sooner that afghanistan can raise its own revenue, its own cost of security and governance in social programs, the sooner that International Tax codes can meet that fiscal cap. Been know, and economy has heavily based on aid as well as illeffect. To auestion of transition productive economy, is absolutely essential. Tremendous does have potential. It is land locked. The assets of the has in terms of this very capable young population know there is not another magic bullet. China is interested but other countries in the region. It has the aspect. It has the capability. A lot of women in the country is not being captured. Pakistan notoriously has one of the lowest tax collection rates in the world. They are continuing to work on closing that back. Want . Hear, what do they job are the engines of the creation . Here are many opportunities the second is the viability of the state. The Afghan Government has put 22 priority programs. I do think there needs to be a sense of priorities in that of oforitization a sense prioritization. Worldns anywhere in the won the basic health care. It is electricity, access to sanitation, really focusing on the things that matter to citizens will be important. Overext area of keeping there in the space of womens rights. Workwe look at what really , keeping vigilant and not letting that space close. It is the young people who lead organizations in the country that is the most important. It is moral support rather than financial support. Regionalhis corporation is political issues. There have has been a lot of work done recently. Work. Important whereare the areas countries can collaborate with each other . A lot of work. The question of south asia to the gas and hydroelectric power in central asia that can help those problems is one really promising area. As friends in germany cooperated, what is the closest . The nextt is up to president to formulate their own policies and the work that International Partners could do. To formulate space them. I think there will be differences. Presidency, the whatever they bring to bear. It is very important in coming decisionmakers and legislators in this space. It is tremendously important that they can work. Commitment the right in the nonsecurity areas to rich that fiscal gap and provide the type of support that the afghans truly wants and needs. We have heard about all the angst that do not work. There are cases of waste and fraud in an efficiency. I think this is the example of what has have thats what has i think this is example of what has worked. There are number of things that have worked. It is impressive to learn what has worked. They know what is important to continue to support him what they can do to come down. Essence, the trust funds, maintaining that budget support is provided. Probably the most important scaleand other large programs that have very large overhead. There are a few other programs like that that have a track record and have been evaluated and has worked very well. They are maintaining a commitment. Ofwe have covered a lot ground. The dramatic side and on the regional and genetic site. Has troubledomats regions. There are recent announcements. Think is the message that is being conveyed . This . Uld you perceive to what extent do you think this is going to make a difference in afghanistan . Knowing that afghanistan is situated in a written pivotal part of the world. The policy to cheers. I think i would give it to cheers twop cheers and one groan. It is contradict truth. Afghanistan is a really complex situation. It has so many moving pieces. You can always go to afghanistan and find the pieces that illustrate your view and come back and write the article that says i have been there and this is the way it is. It is occasionally useful to focus on some of the big picture things. When you look at the election, which was secured by Afghan Forces with 100,000 less troops and their war in afghanistan at the last election, that is a success. It is a success. The election was not just better than the last election. It was about the region that this is taking place. Pakistan has reasonably moved the election. You have russia that is becoming less and less democratic. Stay in thaty region that from the northern border of india to the western border of russia is the most democratic spot in the region. You get a little carried away with that, i agree. It is still an important realization when he think about where afghanistan is situated. Then we come to our policy. It is contradictory. The decision on troops for the next year i believe is a good decision. In peoplereduction are going to deploy new locations with the view to how quickly they have to read a play. The fact that you put such hard on there since the contradictory message that questions whether Performance Matters because youre going to leave anyway, that message is contradictory. It uses the picture quality for the afghans. There is another piece to the decision as well as the timeline. I believe this is clearly a mistake. This is a model that was used. It did not work well in a rock. It is not that it cannot work in theory. You can have a very large military presence under in this each election as we have seen in saudi arabia were you happy to start general in command. Is a game that plays to a bottle that has not worked well in the past. If that model is going to work this time then there needs to be a detailed examination of why it did not work well in a rock and what were are going to do to workhe things that need and i know of no such planning at the moment. It is not happening at the moment. That said, there is time for the afghans. There is time to build on the success they have had. Keeping up the support is going to be hugely important. That is going to be harder when you do not have the u. S. Military presence. Congressionals support but it can be done. I think there is another piece of this. We are talking today with a u. S. Audience. That is the responsibility that is going to have to be carried by the Afghan Government and all. Time, we difficult have to manage our own expectations. The next Afghan Government is going to be a coalition. It is going to take power. Todoes not mean youre going get everything cleaned up quickly. They have to take on the task of more Efficient Government and better government in order to be seen by their own people and more able to rally support. It is for us for the congress and for other foreign donors. It is not just looking to foreigner. It is not just promotion for removing corruption. It is getting out those who are particularly inefficient but politically connected. It is the piece of maintaining it. The next Afghan Government has role in his own salvation. This would seem to be obvious and afghans have mood for so many years in the world that is continually overturned by what foreigners to. What is your vision . What is the vision of the big foreigners . They can really affect our policy. Few would be willing to do this. It is a hard realization for afghans. Ofause of the context out which they come. It is a hard realization when the American Administration sends a mixed message that is very difficult to decipher. Theyre still going through one of the most important pieces. What can they do to support progress . Willingness to play longerterm. I would like to ask all three of you a question that comes up occasionally that does not have a very precise answer. A conflict sort of question. Depending on how you conduct polls and those questions, depending on how you tailor the answers, why is it that the u. S. Public and maybe to some extent some people in congress do not fully grasp what has and is happening in afghanistan and what has and is the u. S. Doing in afghanistan . Do you each want to give me a short answer that might help us . I can give you a long answer. Make it somewhat short. There are several different reasons. Afghan is enormously complex. People want is short, strategic answer. The u. S. Government has done a rotten job of providing a steady. Easure of reporting we give spin as opposed to fact that makes people subject and builds on criticism that has been there since vietnam. Some provide a basis for understanding. The tendency is to the bad reporting. Every country reports primarily when they are involved. This will report almost exclusively. The spanish and Italian Press will focus on the west. The bridges will focus on hellman. You do not have a press that very often likes the comprehensive account. You have lousy american reporting, a complex situation, fragmented press, and people are tired. He put those things together and you get a public recession then it you put those things together and you get the Public Perception that thing is working. I went to a high school that had a problem with gangs. By the time i got there the gangs had been cleaned up. It occurred to me that reputation follows back when aere is a lag of more than year or more. You took a long time to prove to put the troops in battles. Back are waiting behind changes. No afghans, terrible fighting. 25,000 afghan troops in hellman. Business. Lking about find a pressed her about this. How do you resolve this . What do you do . After the two years after 9 11, everything was wonderful. This was a problem. Then the pendulum swung completely the overweight. A very unbalanced picture. I have been talking about some of the other newspapers about this insane you are biased. Youre only reporting on the negative. Some said fair enough, we agree, lets work on this. This was a story. It is hard to find the stories. All section speaking to one of the journalists that had covered the story. He said i cannot find a single project but yet the country has transformed. Part of this is the Political Leadership to tell the story that they are at different stories. Ado think the media does have responsibility to find ways to prevent a more our picture. The site from the media and others in government, as ide from the media and others in government, lets take a look at the telephone. A very savvy group in the 1990s and now a video that came out about the Prisoner Exchange, the felease of her doll o bergdahl, is going viral. How do you manage this . All, i would like to clare saidon and about the narrative. It is hard to boil afghanistan for to bullet points talking points that are easily painting a simple narrative or solution. It is just it just does not lend itself to that. Complex extraordinary environment. When you have had 35 plus years theonflict, whether it was surveyor or what, it is hard for fuel to understand. I have been dealing with afghanistan for seven consecutive years now. Every time i go back to howanistan, you realize much you truly do not understand. , it isiban interesting. On the one hand, and this is part of the complexity, and mentioned to the abhorrence of rule. Six good soldiers of mine killed by the taliban. There is a lot of scar tissue there. By the same token, you look at edicts reaching out to the International Community. Theyre trying to portray themselves as a taliban and 2. 0, were not like the the people that rolled in the 1990s. The 1990s. Theyre starting to give messages about keys and anti about peace and its i corruption. All very much designed to appeal to the International Community. There is a recognition that they cannot turn back the clock. They have got to get more in step with the Afghan People if they are ever going to get any sort of support. Whether any of these messages are credible or this is just cynicism,ism pure we do not know. It is hard to tell. We will not know until it is tested over time. That adds to the complexity of this. The fact that the taliban are not the same as al qaeda. Al qaeda is an International Terrorist group built on the destruction of america and the west. Are anhan taliban Insurgent Group that want to regain power in afghanistan. Two very different organizations that didnt be put together. That some may argue with we will even here. Any points you like to raise lossing to ber . Somewhat on the positive side. Even more so than im. It is there a good. As an afghan you reflect the feelings and thoughts that exist in afghanistan. It is not just afghans talking amongst them amongst each other. Why is it we do not see the Glass Half Full or that life has changed for the better. Those who have a better affinity for this issue, we sometimes are confused. I think afghanistan and the people are going to three little bit of a confucian state. That, i am going to askedo our audience and people to please raise their hands, the recognize and pause and ask a question even though he may have this. Ese questions as simply as possible. Is go to the back so we can capture everybody. For thethe manager women for afghan women. I have a question about the Prisoner Exchange. Watched president obamas speech and then following that the exchange, i was hoping the elections in afghanistan was a Great Success with a great turnout. People offrom the afghanistan that we are progressing to democracy. We do not want the taliban kind of government. Then i was hoping that our president would clearly encourage the message and say the government was going to stand by its values, the progress the afghans have made. I work for a womans organization. Afghans in my organization are working on the ground every day with their lives in danger and they keep going. Would be encouraged and i would notice the United States and International Community would stand by us. When i heard the message of afghanistan will never be a Perfect Place and it is not americas response ability make it one, it was a great disappointment for me, for the young afghan generation, for the women who have been fighting so hard. The president [indiscernible] what was their president thinking saying that . With the Prisoner Exchange, following that, we have five top taliban, some of them very well connected with al qaeda, are exchanged. They will be under monitoring for a year. What will happen after that . The plan to close down guantanamo bay, eventually, what will happen to all the prisoners who are there . Rereleasing 5, 10, 20 of them to go back now . Let me address the first part. The closest thing we had to the government. There is this worry that exist. Has it been less represented . Then i will turn to you. What can you tell tell us about this release of the taliban . It is going to injure or help . This entire event has created so much anxiety and emotion on both sides of the ledger. The narrative, the message that says we are committed to a successful afghanistan, we are committed to supporting the afghan in a peaceful, stable, prosperous future, that is one narrative. A very different narrative is we are committed to getting out of afghanistan. One narrative i think inspires a sense of commitment and a sense of confidence on the part of the people. The other narrative invokes fears of 1989 and abandonment. That is problematic. It has increased the anxiety of afghans to, i then through 35 years of conflict. I want to see these games preserved. I want to see these these gains preserved. I want to see these for afghan women and children. There is a narrative on this that is challenging. Narrativeure that the exchangeecent prisoner is something that is going to be embraced as a model for the future in terms of how you forribe sets conditions them. I think there will be a lot of elections on the administration side on that. Solution to how do i get my how do i get this individual back . There are a variety of solutions with alternatives. Is going to have any bearing on the Peace Process . When the a point Prisoner Exchange was to have been a precursor to a talk. That point has passed. It may come back again but this is not geared to the prisoners. If there is any message in the Prisoner Exchange, it would suggest americans are clearing up the battlefield as they leave it. One that i cease any any particular plus or minus. There is a second around of elections to go. There is a huge story for the future of afghanistan. This is being largely ignored in the feeding frenzy over sergeant bergdahl. I know were going to get his questions we might as well get it out. This is not a story that has covered any extra participants [indiscernible] there is the principle of bringing back our old. It brings about the result they. Itigate the risk her since the white house as not been prepared to speak about that on the record, it leaves arealightly uncomfortable for the conditions. The second issue is how much danger the people oppose and i would say the media has not covered itself with glory in either. There is a good report from the Afghan Analyst Network and who says you do not have five leading telefonicas war leaders. You have at least two that were poorly administrated. Telefonica war leaders. You have at least two that were poorly administrated. Of thee combatants, one midlevel. Only one who is really senior. He does have the potential for the mediaissues which spinning know it today to at all. The portrayal of the people is generally messed up. The suggests hyperventilation of the critics is probably excessive to the actual issues. Ve anld say you had individual and a price for his release but do not merit the self congratulations. You have a threat which is probably not terribly large to which we do not entirely understand and you have a criticism which seems to get ahead of the facts. I do not find much glory in any of that. Comments. Couple of i very much agree with you. The idea that afghanistan, some people were trying to make up an estate into a perfect lace is [indiscernible] nobody ever suggested that. I do not think anything shipper been the citizens of afghanistan to try to create the afghanistan they want. The kind of transformation does take 20 to 30 years. People are realistic. The end goal is for the afghans to determine. Coming back to the thing that all of us have been addressing, there is a lot more complexity. Every afghan that i have spoken to understand the complexity. Not always the media. Paper that a number of afghan media has been , many different members have been talking about it. Thes different parts of process. To look at the Peace Process. There are different elements to this. Then there is the question in many parts feeling excluded from power. The question how does one adjust it, there are people in many different parts of the country. How are they addressed . There are many actions taken that people would say our crimes. There is a much broader sense. This is something that still needs to be worked out. This is different groups within the country. Like, from each of the president candidate platform, that each of them probably look toward a reframing of the roots. Good morning. Im the president of the National Coalition for the tribes of afghanistan. In dealing directly with the transfer the last 12 years all over afghanistan and ive been sitting here and listening to the Honorable Panel here, but i am disappointed that i do not hear the actual problems facing afghanistan as the west is celebrating dday, the afghan tday, whicheading i call the taliban day. My father was a one eyed mullah that was educated in bundy college. And pakistan to the taliban and turn them into a religious the cape oftting mohammed, peace be gone upon him, and therefore giving him the aura of an islamic leader to unite the posturing around him. The problem of afghanistan is not in afghanistan and the sooner the west admits this i know you know it, but you will not admit it. Armies. D has got Pakistans Army has a country. It is the opposite. Pakistans military is running the country. The isi is the one that is supporting these people that are coming into afghanistan and killing our people. The biggest symbol of celebrating the release of the fight was yesterday when they almost annihilated the frontrunner for the elections. Why dont we address the fact rocketsistan is sending and killing our people . And i dont hear a word from the 47 nations that are there to protect us against the enemies of afghanistan. Afghanistan is not at war with pakistan. Afghanistan is not at war with iran. The west is at war with the al qaeda and taliban. And the fight is being fought on the front of afghanistan and we are paying the price for it. These foreign for soldiers who have lost their lives in afghanistan, but lets be comparatively speaking, for every full foreign soldier that has fallen in afghanistan, tens of thousands of that dance of afghans have fallen at the hands of the taliban. Lets makehearing peace with the taliban. Which taliban are you talking about . Afghanistan colleague taliban are affluent. From puranas, if they are from helmand, they belong to another tribe. Go to guitar. To lets go to helmand and talk to them. And ladies, with all due respect, my question is, how is the United States and the 47 nations that have come to stave save afghanistan, or themselves, or the world from the al qaeda taliban, how will hands of isithe into afghanistan you into afghanistan . Thank you. This is a reflection of wider society, regardless of [indiscernible] thank you for reflecting that. Does anyone want to take that question . Please. I was waiting for chris. [indiscernible] [laughter] nofirst of all, there is question that the sanctuaries in pakistan allow the taliban continue to fight. If there were no centuries in pakistan, there would be no important insurgency. It would have been crushed a long time ago. That is very clear. There is a degree of official response ability in pakistan for that. I agree with that as well. The United States has complex interests. Narrative, afghan which says if you would just beat out the pakistanis, they would close this down. Have more could pressure. I think we could have more understanding. I think that narrative is exaggerated. The pakistanis have allowed something to grow which now threatens the pakistani state as well. And which im not even sure they have the capacity to control. And it does affect the pakistanis as well. America has multiple interest. It has the interests of the taliban not succeeding afghanistan. It has an interest in not having the collapse of pakistan. Which is not only a larger nation, but one that has nuclear weapons. It has the interest of not k war. Another indopa and it has the problem of sustaining our forces and Afghan Forces in afghanistan without transferring through pakistan. The world is a contradictory place sometimes. Im sorry. I think we would be better off if we would speak more honestly about the fact that those interests are in conflict and that we need both pressure on pakistan, but we also need the statement of pakistan, because we have huge interests and their interest in their not collapsing. A way ink we have which we could have a onedimensional policy. I think we could have a great deal more clarity about the fact that we are dealing with the tension between side of a policy. I think we would be much redder much better off if we would that we do not have a strategic basis with accident. We have some which some issues on which we have great commonality and some issues on which we are practically enemies. And we have to maintain the relationship that recognizes and deals with both halves of that. Rather than speaking as though we were either friends or enemies in alternate months, which is where we seem to end up. There are various ways in which one could do that. But im not in government, so theres not much point in my delineating those. Chris . I think your question excellent question and onervations sort of build emotionaln of how this conflict is, or the past 35 years of conflict, and how heartrending it has been for the Afghan People to have to live through. We have generations of afghans who have known that thing but violence. Nothing but violence. I think it also builds on the point that you have this idea that some people talk about a peace deal where you get 20 people around the table and you hash out some sort of peace deal. I think the afghans tried that in the islamabad courts, or the accords of 1992, and the obama bottom chords of 1993 islam abroad accords of 1993. And that led to the afghan war. ThePeace Process deals with external dimensions of the conflict, but not the internal dimensions. It has to be dealt with if there is going to be progress in that respect. Do you think the u. S. At mr. Hsu, people at the pentagon, cia, state department the u. S. Administration, he let the pentagon, cia, state department, they will have options . Is the thinking along those lines . Or are they trying their best to disengage gradually, and finally fully . Are we well event to the Peace Process now . We have said we are leaving. What have we to negotiate with, except the betrayal of the Afghan Government. Government . We have to support the government. The government has to prove it can survive. The afghan army has to prove it cannot be defeated. You may then have the conditions under which people may be willing to talk to each other, whether it is in helmand or somewhere else. I dont think we any longer have anything with which to make a peace deal. What is it we are going to offer . Our leverage is pretty much gone. I mean, chris, you have dealt with this. Ultimately, afghans will have to decide the political future of afghans afghanistan. We in the International Community can play a role in helping getting people to the table and keeping them at the table. But i use the term table loosely. To be successful, this would have to be a process that will go on for a very, very long time. You know, just to get to a point where the shooting stops. And then Transitional Justice to grips with 35 years of conflict is going to take even longer. There is something we can do. And we want to be clear about this. Is to be clearo that we will continue to support the Afghan Government through our military and that they will not lose because our support will be there. That begins to create the condition under which insurgent leaders can see that they will not win on the battlefield. Departuremessage of and lack of clarity is a negative for creating the conditions for peace negotiations. The other thing we could do is to shut up. Because our continued talk about how necessary a peace deal is , andsts desperation desperation suggest that youre going to pay very high price for what you want. You create this notion of desperate bargaining and you end up in a situation where you either have to pay very high price, or you have to do a lot more killing to prove that you wont pay it. It is a little like walking into the carpet bazaar and saying, that is the finest carpet ive ever seen and i absolutely must have it, and what is your best price, and i have 15 minutes to bargain. If you bargain that way, first, he will pay a lot for a carpet. Secondly, you should not be allowed to go shopping. I am a consultant to you and agencies, although none having to do with afghanistan. Returned to afghanistan, a private visit during elections. This was the first time i had been in afghanistan since 2002. I have to say that from my eyes and i was only in kabul, partly due to security concerns. But what is happening in afghanistan is nothing short of miraculous. The United States and the International Community deserve a lot of credit and they deserve to be proud for the market will changes that have been brought in kabul, which was largely rubble when i was there before. The election went extremely smoothly with very little disruption. I suggest that it is possible that the taliban may have exercised it to agree a degree of restraint during elections. The afghan Security Forces did equip them selves well, but the level of destruction disruption was much less than it could have been. It is also not clear whether the pakistanis may have suggested some restraint at that time. I think the prospects in afghanistan are extraordinary. Half a generation has been educated. They need another 10 years to educate the second half. And that is going to have a vermont double impact. Also, the other remarkable have a remarkable impact. Also, the other marble thing that you see is the proliferation of private education. Andle are going out there paying to learn skills that could get them jobs. There is a marked remarkable degree of aspiration, a remarkable degree of hard work. People are out there working and building a future, and they see that as the future. As far as the election is concerned, each of the two candidates is supremely qualified, exceptionally qualified to be president of afghanistan. And both candidates have developed fairly extensive platforms. They have been thinking about policies. When they come into office, they face a completely different environment with much stronger preparations then president karzai, in addition to having their own Security Forces. A month or two, we will be seeing a very new and different environment. So this is my question. If the newly elected president of afghanistan again, both of them with extensive Foreign Relations experience and experience with the United States and with the American Government if the new president comes to washington and says, would you be willing to reconsider the zero option in two years . What do you think would be the reaction of the administration . To chris and then to clarify to claire. It is hard to answer a hypothetical. But the way i would answer this is i think there are a lot of Lessons Learned my potential Lessons Learned in our relationship with resident karzai over the last several years. I think we have to be honest that whoever the new afghan president is going to be, it is going to be under a lot of hes going to be under a lot of the same domestic pressures in afghanistan as president karzai. I would encourage the it ministration administration to look inward about the relationship that we have had with president karzai over the past several years, determine what week could do differently to have a more productive relationship with the new afghan president. I would like to ask you what you think. But i will let you know in a second. I have to think about it. I think it is just generally good practice, whether it is a security area, or economic and other sets of relationships that when a new government comes in power, there is a new set of policies. That am a in general, will be a good time to revise the policy from the side of the relationship. I think it would be a good matter of practice to do so. The narrative of the white house is that we are leaving. So there is a lot of inertial force, which will be contrary to changing that policy. I dont know what they would do in this hypothetical. I doubt that they would change rapidly, if at all. Thing ink that the one afghan hands is now unique or performance. We should control our expert patient expectations of how fast any president of afghan can change things, because he will be dealing with a coalition and dealing with a lot of complex forces who do not want him to push things so hard that it causes explosions. But if that question were to be asked in the way that is most likely to get an affirmative answer, it will have to be based on performance rather than promise. I hope that question will be addressed in a year, plus or minus. I think it would be premature to address it now, and unlikely to get a different answer. By the way, on the election violence, it is important to note there was actually a great deal of violence. The afghan press deliberately did not report much of the violence. There were a number of incidents. And that was in part in reaction to the killing of a journalist and his family in the serena hotel a week before the election. It basically produced a reaction in the afghan press of, we are not going to help those people. I dont see a restraint on the part of the taliban, because in fact, we are getting calls from the taliban to journalists and editors saying, wait a minute, we just blew something up. Why arent you reporting . This is not suggest restraint. They were rare effect they were very frustrated by the fact that the journalists have an obligation, but you are partisan and attacking us and we are not going to help you. There was some violence, but not to the point where it disrupted elections, or dissuaded people from going and voting in large numbers. And the hope is that next week, when afghans go to vote again in again, theyonce will be able to do so and turn out in large numbers. To answer craigs question, my personal view is that it would take a while for the new government to really establish itself and show some level of credibility and credit. And knowing that the u. S. Already is making a decision and is announcing a decision for the ,ext two and a half years or so there are elections coming up in the United States in 2016. 2016,k at some point in the new Afghan Government will have to probably raise this issue and see if, depending on what is happening at the time we tend to forget, and this is what bothers afghans to some extent, is that we tend to forget that we are also somewhat the holden beholden to the situation on the ground. We do not know exactly what kind of situation we may be facing down the road at the end of 2015, 2016. If by 2016, things look somewhat reasonably acceptable and normal, then there will be a for there will not be a need to ask for more. But if there is a real danger in the dating from afghanistan or the emanating from afghanistan or these running region, then obviously, the calculations will change. And the government will have to again reviewed this case, and reevaluate the situation. Depending on what is happening, we would have to shape our discussions in accordance to that. In response to the young lady in the back let us move to the young lady in the back. Thank you so much for speaking here today. Andame is Heather Robinson im a phd candidate at the university of Saint Andrews in scotland. I was interested in the discussion we just had about how will rolele will affect how afghanistan was forward. What can we say about the role, that will eckley b quite significant likely be quite significant, that iran will play . Withu know, u. S. Relations competingtrained, and in afghanistan, particularly in 1990s, has led to chaos in the country. Additionally, iran was instrumental in helping the u. S. With the invasion in 2001. What should and can america be doing with iran to make sure that our players are complements in the mission in afghanistan ersus unraveling in . Thank you. We will take one more question first. Right there in front. I name is dan rutherford. Anne rutherford. My question is, we will be leaving the afghans at some point to defend themselves. When we leave, we are taking our toys with us, all of the helicopters and heavy equipment. How do we expect them to do the job weve been doing without all of that equipment . Would you like to take the first one you come sure. The first one . Sure. I think we should be having a dialogue with iran on afghanistan. Probably had the last conversations with iran, and irani represented in afghanistan about the country when i was there. And i was instructed to suspend that, because all pressure was to be concentrated on the nuclear issue. Important when looking at iran to look at the difference between irans interest and afghan it in afghanistan, and irans interest in iraq. Because the two situations are quite different. Iran has always been a strategic a rack has always been a strategic threat to iran. Has an interest of a degree of instability in a rack in iraq to mitigate the threat of power. It does not have that interest in afghanistan. It does have a genuine interest in stability. Lay games and send money to buy positions, but afghanistan is has never in the last 100 years been a strategic threat to iran. Iranians know that. They worry about our presence, the mirkin present. That scares them. The american presence. That scares them. You have the basis on which to have a shared interest in betweening afghanistan afghanistan and iran. It is not clear that we have that shared interest with pakistan at this point. It would make sense in my view to talk to the iranians about afghanistan, if you can keep that conversation contained within the afghan framework. Because when you dont talk to them and i saw this very clearly then everything you do in a country that might be a threat to them, they regard with suspicion. You dont have a channel of comedic asian within which to take away the suspicion of communication within which to take away the suspicion. There has been a big problem with drugs coming in, hashish and poppy, opium and heroin, coming in from afghanistan. They have a big drug population problem. They have a smuggling problem. And a baluchi insurgent problem. Is iranian and pakistan related. There are many things we can talk about with iran where we Share Interests without getting into complexities or Nuclear Issues or other things. I think we would fare better if we did it. Toys, i thinke of it is a great question. And first, to build on rons , yes, thereather are some common plenary interest with iran that we have. Afghanistan lives in an extraordinarily difficult neighborhood. Which i think reinforces the point claire first made that there is no real viable peace deal that anyone can really envision, but there is a Peace Process that regional actors will have to play a constructive role in. Question,ct to your as a matter of fact, the Afghan National Security Forces since june of last summer have been in the league the lead for security and have been the ones taking on these operations. We have been laying an advisory role. But the afghan Security Forces have been defending their country, you know, in the lead, since june of 2014. I have served along the alongside them. I have fought alongside them. There are a lot of highly capable afghan units and very good leaders. I think we can take pride in what we have done in helping the afghans build the afghan. Ational Security Forces but the afghan army, i dont want to oversell them. There are a lot of challenges. But we do have a lot of capable individuals and organizations. The other thing i would like to raj alind i lisa appreciationned for what americans have done in afghanistan. I would personally like to thank the afghanistan people for the sacrifices they have made to allow us to be in afghanistan, whether it is the counterterrorism piece or to help the Afghan People come to a steep a peaceful, stable process for the future. The it ministration does not anchor the Afghan People enough does not thank the Afghan People enough. Im just a private citizen now, but the Afghan People put their lives on the line for me. There is not enough significant appreciation on our part. Right there. We have two hands. Doug brooks with the Afghan American Chamber of commerce. Coming back to basic security, we used to say that security is 90 of the problem, but only 10 of the solution. Really, on a basic level, if there has been any economic element at all, it is going to require some better security on the ground. And the past government, the byzai government was helped private security, but basically the security that would allow International Companies to move into the country. Is there any sort of fix or future for some sort of basic security to address this problem . I think a lot of what we have been talking about today is about the conditions under which the security infrastructure and forces can meet the threat and what can be done to meet the threat as far as capability of security. I do think from an Economic Development perspective, we sometimes look in the wrong place. If we are reliant on International Contractors and ngos from the outside coming in, then they need Security Companies to defend themselves. But a lot of what and where the discussion has been going and needs to go is that it is the afghans themselves and afghan institutions and organizations that will be carrying out the developer and. The type of programs development. The type of programs that i mentioned were actually afghan led and afghan driven programs within a policy framework and by afghan ministries or private companies. It is those that forms affordable platforms for development that have a different way to operate in the environment and address risk. For International Companies to come in and make investment, and i think either candidate is very much looking toward ,nternational partnerships whether the private sector or universities or a number of other organizations, then the security requirements will have to be worked out. But i think knowing from some of the international investors, in a Risk Assessment of afghanistan, they say this a much easier environment to work than the many other environments across africa that they do business in. From many of them, what ive heard is that they are saying this is not a problem for us. To take one last question. One as question. I am a student at johns hopkins. My question is, someone to the toiban had a small rationale negotiate prior to 2013 because there was a calculate it shift in Power Dynamics to be expected. About 2016. Is how much does that hurt the prospects for reconciliation or negotiation Going Forward . And to what extent does that undermine the progress in the next two years because of uncertainty . And again, because of the announced drawdowns. Decreasel be another of troop presence, which could create the impression, lets wait another two years and we would be in a better position to secure more concessions potentially from the Afghan Government, or to increase their own power from the perspective of the regional neighbors and militant groups operating in the country. I think that is a wonderful question. And very important. Mentioned neumann there were some opportunities, perhaps to get a Peace Process initiated. And of course, that did not come to fruition. And in 2014, there was both for the taliban and the Afghan Government, you know, to engage in any sort of Peace Process and i want to emphasize process, not 20 people around a deal trying to hatch a deal, but a real Peace Process. I think they will be in a stronger position in 2015 than they are in 20 urging or 2014. That populist may happen in 2016 as well. I think it will be interesting to see how well the in itself perform on the battle the nsf perform on the battlefield, how well the afghans are beginning to enact a process of reform. And i think the Afghan Government recognizes that this is right now. And the next couple of years will be a position of verbal strikes visavis the taliban visible strikes visavis the taliban. Potential forhe even greater violence beyond 2016. For responsible people to get together on all sides and begin exploring some sort of dignified Peace Process along the lines that claire mentioned. On that note, thank you very much. We have run out of time. You may have time to talk to our guests outside if you dont mind, but i would like to thank newman, clareon lockhart, and Christopher Glenda kolenda for sharing your views with us. Thank you. [applause] [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2014] [captioning performed by national captioning institute] news today that hiring continued for a fourth straight month in may with employers adding 217 thousand jobs. It is down from the amount of hiring in april, though. The Labor Department reports that job gains have now average 234,000 over the past three months. Despite again, the and employment rate remains at 6. 3 . Today marks the 70th anniversary of dday, when 150,000 allied ofdiers stormed the beaches normandy, france, during world war ii. President obama and several members of congress as well are in france today for the ceremonies there that were just wrapping up a short time ago. We would like to get your thoughts on dday. The conversation is going on now at facebook. Com cspan. There youll also find speeches that other u. S. President s have made on various dday celebrations, including president carter, who spoke at the 35th anniversary. And Ronald Reagan who spoke at the 40th. And bill clinton who spoke at the 50th anniversary of dday in normandy. 70sht, we will have the the 70th anniversary of dday in france, if your money including the president s speech including the keynote address i french president Francois Hollande. That is coming up at 8 00 eastern here on cspan. To show you president obamas remarks this morning at the American Cemetery and memorial, which over overlooks omaha beach, one of during then spots normandy invasion. In his speech, the president talks about the allied effort and says that the world had seen nothing like it. He thanked veterans for their service and greeted many of them following his speech. This is about one hour, 20 minutes. Flex presenting french president Francois Hollande and the president of United States of america, barack obama. [speaking french] please remain standing for the posting of the colors and the playing of the National Anthem of the French Republic and the United States of america. French king french] eaking [playing la marseillaise] playsng [band starspangled banner] [applause] flex president president hollande, president obama, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen, please be seated. [speaking french] privilege to welcome all of the distinguished visitors joining us today. We extend a special welcome to the dday and world war ii veterans and their family members in attendance who honor us all with their presence. Today, we commemorate the 70th anniversary of the dday landing [applause] june 6, 1944. On todays ceremony will honor our military men and women who made the ultimate sacrifice for the liberation of europe, including among those we honor the 9000 387 9387 of our fallen veterans interred on the sacred ground, and the 1557 missing in cash and in action inscribed on the walls. [speaking french] , pleases and gentlemen bow your heads for the invocation delivered by the most reverend f richard spencer. [speaking french] clicks may we join our hearts together in prayer . Weighty and eternal god, as gather here on holy ground to remember the Fallen Heroes of ,esterday, everything we see everything we cannot see exists because of you alone. Peace comes from you. It all belongs to you. Eace exists for your glory history is our story. Nottask here today is to fix the blame for the past, but to fix the course for the future. Give to our government and military leaders the wisdom to lead us with humility, the courage to lead us with integrity, the compassion to lead us with generosity. Help us, o, god, to remember , unitedare human beings not by race or religion or blood, but to our comment our common commitment to freedom and justice for all. Help us to share, to serve, and to seek the common good for everyone. And whenever we face difficult , may we have a new birth of clarity in our aim. In ourponsibility actions, humility in our approaches, and civility in our attitudes, even when we differ from one another. May all people of good will fory join together to work a more just, more healthy, and more prosperous world, and a peaceful planet. N your holy name we pray, amen ladies and gentlemen, the president of the French Republic, Francois Hollande. [speaking french] [applause] [speaking french] dear veterans of dday, today wed gentlemen, commemorate on june 6 a memorable date in our history where our two people were joined in the same struggle, the struggle for liberty. Beach to the near the cemetery, a peaceful beach. , it was a 1944 horrible battlefield and this is what we want to remember today, 70 years later. History, there are always challenges to face, things sometimes go wrong. And in the prehours of dawn, everything started to go wrong on omaha beach. Learned landed behind the german defenses. The ladies the artillery had missed it targets, and the tanks that were to support the. Nfantry had sunk the soldiers of the first wave of the assault found themselves withly armed and faced mortars, rifles, heavy artillery, and machine guns. ,hey were mutilated, massacred while the survivors were pinned down on the sand amongst the dead and wounded under deadly while the tide came in. Nazis were sure of themselves. They believed they would repel all assaults, thanks to the bunker they had. Facthad not counted on the that in democracy, a great ideal , and thatt courage men would give their lives to on a continents to continent of liberty. Manhe general said, every affected on omaha beach on june 6, 1944, was a hero. Soldiersyoung regrouped with a few officers with no orders, no plan. And they ran toward the german , these desperate, unexpected, irresistible assault was victorious. Later, they had won the battle. Names utah, all of these ,voke suffering and glory desolation and pride, cruelty and deliverance. More than 20,000 americans gave their lives here in normandy. 20,838, i shall not forget one of them. Relatives, your brothers, and your friends. They were liberators. France will never forget what we men and women, what we owe to the United States of america. France will never forget the between our two nations, the solidarity that prevailed in the last century, and it which and which is based on our shared dream of freedom. America remembers the contribution that france made to the revolution its revolution in 1917, when american independence was at stake. Independence was at stake, america was there to preserve it in 1944 when francis soil was occupy frances soil was occupied. America was there to free it. I know what that cost the United States, a great brother country. So much sacrifice in human losses. Here iners were honored a little normandy village, which in one day in june, 1944, was the most important site in the , and whichthe world in they a sacred place memory of our two countries. Here lie the markers of bloody heroes in the infantry of the battle of the hedgerows. They failed to save europe. Fell tolike they save europe. I would like to share with you a few names. A father and son both killed in july, 1944. One in italy, and the other in normandy. Both of them here to save europe. Here, while all of these brothers were cut down by war, 66 of them are buried to by two, sidebyside. These white crosses we bear thed us, gold, the mark of the metal of honor. Lieutenant ortiz, one of the first men to land at omaha without cover before falling under enemy fire. Without ever seeing the victory. Is Sergeant Frank posttory who captured a defended by 43 germans. He died four days later. In the norman countryside. And last but not least, general roosevelt, son of the 26th president of the usa. On july 12, 1944. He is buried alongside his brother, quentin, who was shot out of the sky over champagne on july 14, 1918. Their crosses stand sidebyside , testifying to the unbroken ties between our two people from one generation to the next. Mr. President , i will reiterate the both of my predecessor predecessor. Y we will never forget. We will never forget the sacrifice of the american servicemaen. Mr. President , we are the children and grandchildren of this great generation. Normandy inere in omaha. In a town that was almost completely destroyed during this battle. Mr. President , you were born in hawaii, in a state that was. Eavily struck by the war our parents, our grandparents, told us the story of these sufferings, of this combat. Our parents, our grandparents raised us telling us that for anything to change, nothing should be forgotten. Nation has built a hope from these common memories, the hope of peace. That is the image projected today by normandy where everyone is gathered today. Normandy, where those who fought each other yesterday stand together here today. Mr. President , over 70 years the United States, in spite of been ages, has always friend we can count on. This is the friendship of two nations who were born into modernity, progress. This is the friendship of two admiration, shared a shared admiration of the and friendship of two nations who stand together in the face of tyranny, and who want to make the world more democratic and peaceful. The french people recognize and into the continual and into the piggy tmobile an idefatigable friend. Admire the americans most because they themselves are the lovers of freedom, and they know that when a critical moment our fundamental principles are in danger, france and the United States always like in thatside, terrible summer of 1944 on the beaches of normandy and on the beaches of provence. Today, we stand together to face other threats climate change, inequality, underdevelopment, poverty, hunger. Togetheray, we stand the face of other perils fundamentalism, extremism, terrorism. The silence of this sacred place expresses the message of the soldiers who lie here. We must be worthy of our past to continue making history. Long live america, longlived france, long live the memory of those who lost their lives here