Transcripts For CSPAN San 20240705

Next time. [applause] our live coverage continues now or three marks from the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President mary daly who as an event hosted by the brooking institution. We joined the slide in progress here on cspan. I think my team calls extreme data dependent where i will be watching and looking at people asked me this question, i think it is an important one, common or public data releases will we get before the meeting . If date adjustment public data releases, probably would could. But that is not what we mean by data. We be talking to firms and households and worker groups and community groups. You can do that all the way up to the meeting and then you have the debates and conversation at the meeting, which help us make the best decisions. Besides looking at all the data that comes in and the economist to work for you parsing the different ways to slice and dice inflation and labor market data, how else to go about getting information about what is going on with the economy . The Regional Reserve banks are very well equipped to do this. It is one of the things if you are president of the reserve bank, take it quite seriously and have teams of people helping you. There are formal ways we do it through the beige book. We have a formal survey the banks do and put together. Another way we do this is through boards of directors. They are for the head offices and the branches. Councils, Economic Advisory council, Community Repository institution council. We are looking at those councils regularly, meeting regularly to understand what the economy is doing and what they see in the economy. I have ceo roundtables and worker group roundtables. We have teams in the field each month doing focus groups to collect this information. As you might imagine, i enjoy talking to people so i am out in my communitys and travel all over my district. I have nine states. I spend a lot of time talking with people. Talk about your sunday afternoon. On sunday afternoons, i like to go to fairly sizable retail outlets. He can be outlets that we buy lots of goods at war one to buy homeimprovement things. I like to go to retail outlets. I like to Wander Around and talk to people. I managed to do this without getting thrown out of the store. I tell them, look, i am an economist and really interested in how your feeling about the tradeoff between jobs and price increases. Interestingly, what i keep hearing i like to go to areas where those margins will be more binding for people. If i go to the wealthiest areas, they say, neither one is affecting me. It is the low and moderate income communities where they will be least able to bear these tradeoffs that i go. I keep hearing the same thing. I have been hearing this for well over a year. Inflation is our number one problem. One young man, this was several months back, he was so striking to me. He has a daughter, wife, and he tells me, i say, what is problematic for you or what do you worry about . He says, i have more Job Opportunities than i can take because theres only 24 hours a day and seven days in a week. I am working already three jobs and i cant do anymore jobs. But every time i come to this store, i can afford less in my cart. He picks up the eggs and milk and says, i cant afford this. So im making more money than i have ever made in my life and i am falling behind. He said it was a treadmill. In my mind, it is a treadmill of indignity. Inflation, you work hard you do everything youre supposed to do and inflation euros. People say, why are you so determined to get inflation down . Because of that young man and all the other americans who tradeoffs might be less severe but still believe in the fed to have price stability. That is how i spend my sunday afternoons. It informs me as a policymaker. Peeing resolute is something we need to do. You have heard the being resolute is something we need to do. Being thoughtful how we carry that out is also important. I dont want to take that young mans job nor do i want him to have to worry about the price of eggs doubling every time he goes to the market. Those are the kinds of things i learned on sunday afternoon. To people not look at you like youre some kind of nut . I have that midwestern personality that i get away with a lot of stuff. I dont think im very threatening. I think one of the things you have to have as a policymaker, i am an economist by trade and some people dont think, you know they dont think you have in a personality emotions, what are they good for mentality . Truthfully, people want to tell their stories about how they are faring in the world. But you have to be willing to listen and not say, well, heres how i think youre feeling, do you agree . It is, how are you feeling . What are your struggles . I dont ask if you care more about employment or inflation, i say, how is the job going for you . Or how are you faring in terms of the basket of goods your purchasing . Those questions tend to invite people to speak without thinking im crazy. I never take a book but if i was Walking Around with the book inside, ok, one, inflation, two, employment, i might get thrown out of the store. How do you make sense of where we are in the economy now . I think most of us thought if you raised Interest Rates by five percentage points, the labor market in particular would be at least, if not screeching to a halt, we have 200,000 jobs last month and people say, wow, we finally got it down. From what you said, that is about twice what we need to keep up. Why do you think the economy has been so resilient given the amount of tightening . I think that is going to be a question many economists and lots of young researchers study post how did this happen . There are many theories. I want to start with things that must be material. First, we put a lot of support into the economy. The fed did. We had Interest Rates moved to zero rapidly with lots of support through the Balance Sheet and for guidance. The fiscal agents also gave lots of support to the economy. We were fighting a pandemic and the desire i think of all policymakers was to not let something that nobody had created, nobody had done this to themselves, do rail lives and livelihoods for long periods of time. There is are pouring and resources to support to get people to the pandemic. But that support, coupled the fact for many people, theyre just stuck at home, cant do anything so you start saving money, saving money accidentally because you cant use the money. The job market for many people remained strong. We know if the people who got laid off enmass that were given support, but if you were a tech worker, were living well. Youre working at home, dont pay commuting. Your salaries are going up. Lots of demand for your services. That is money in peoples pockets. You get stacking up of lots of support for the next part of the puzzle, which is we dont like to be locked down as people. I have learned that. We got locked down good reasons, health reasons, then we came out with a vengeance in spending. We end up with lots of money to spend and a great desire to do so. Supply did not cooperate. National supply chains were not cooperating. Global supply chains were not cooperating. Covid left its wake in different ways at different times across the world. It took a long time Global Supply chains to get to back to where they were. Meanwhile, demand recovered rapidly. It doesnt matter what country youre in. All countries demand recovered rapidly once the restraints and people had income. I think when i look back, three reasons why the economy has not slowed more given what we have done. One, there are longer lives than we assumed. Two, the Monetary Policy record is weaker than it used to be. Three, the economy has more underlying momentum than we have really understood. I think all of those could be true and we should study all of them, but i really do see again and again and again this idea the economy has a lot of momentum. It takes a while. We do have lags so that is why we have to be so datadependent post of just reflecting on your own way of being, we really want to get back out after dissipate. So does everyone else on the globe. What do you look at to know what you say your data dependent, what date are you talking about . I look at oh wide range of data. I think it is useful to remind everybody, we have a lot of data that we a lot you see in the newspapers on inflation, employment. It is not like we look at a single data point and say, ok, now we know what is going on with inflation and employment. We have a labor market dashboard looking at geographics, collection of realtime data, data all of these are publicly available published data. Those are rich. We have our model of things that understand how theyre behaving relative to history. The first thing you learn when you go to school is data is a plural term. Data plural is also qualitative and quantitative data. Systematically collected, both of those pieces of data are important. We learn a lot from our conversation. Not just the sunday conversations, but the colleagues conversations are having when we are out in the communities, talking to firms. We put that together. They are important because the data we get from published sources, there are a few leading indicators but by and large they were telling us what happened last month or the last six months, but even if theyre real time, they are just as uptodate. What we really need to know to make lessee well and reduce the chances we will make over under correction errors is to look forward. We have surveys about what are people planning to do . Are they planning to hire more . Are you planning to quit . Are you planning to raise wages . These are all things that help us fill out the picture. I believe it makes better policy for us. What do those tell you now about what is happening . What i hear, and we just had her Economic Advisory Council Meeting so that is people from people have businesses from all over the nine western states. Very diverse set of states. I have the intermountain states, coastal states, alaska and hawaii. A very Diverse Group of businesses and firms. What im hearing is there are signs the economy is slowing. Here is an example. It is easier to find workers than it was last year. Right after that they say, but it is still hard. Input prices are not rising as fast as they were last year, but they are still rising. It is not as easy for me to pass along Cost Increases to final goods or my sales but i still can. What im hearing is things are Getting Better in terms of the sustainability were trying to get between supply and demand your not there yet. It is too early to declare victory. If you look at the sep projections from the fomc for june, summary of Economic Projections released were it says two additional rate hikes this year, i consider that a reasonable projection with a great deal of data dependence around it. We may end up doing less because we need to do less. We may end up doing more. The data will tell us. I would say when you look back over the last three years how the fed handled the pandemic, how we got this unwelcome burst of inflation, how the economy performed differently than many of us, including those at the fed forecast, what are the two or three lessons youve learned about making monitoring policies in the past three years . Great russian. I will start great question. I will start pricing we will continue to learn these lessons. We are the beginning of learning things we need to learn. What we learn from the last five years that will help us inform the next five years. But when i think back to what i have learned, i have learned this, it is really challenging. It is challenging to just know how long the impact will be of a kind of seismic shock like the pandemic. I had the same experience when we came through the financial crisis. It was a big shock. Economic models are not built to understand exactly how long that tale will be from that shop. What we found in the pandemic, things persisted for longer. It took longer than we could imagine for supply to come back. It has been taking longer than we imagined for people to get past the idea of revenge spending. It has been a learning period that we have to bring a lot of hemolytic went a big shock occurs. Our models dont usually incorporate how that is going to play out in the economy. I think that is a lesson. Another lesson i have learned, and definitely im thinking about it as we go through the next framework, we came out of the financial crisis with a whole suite of tools. We had the palace sheet tool, dell Balance Sheet tool, porter were guidance, funds rate, Balance Sheet. They were all very, very helpful. Essential, i would say. One of the things you learn is there not equally agile. Ford guidance is a fairly easy and agile tool. We can change what we say most of the fed fund rate turns out to be pretty agile tool. The Balance Sheet is not such an agile tool. You get that going and it takes a while to change direction. Abrupt changes could influence or dislocate financial markets. When you think of that, we have to be very thoughtful about how we communicate the stance of policy and how we dont make all of those tools work exactly the same way at exactly the same time. I have learned to have a lot more comfort with raising the funds rate while were still tapering asset purchases and figuring out how to communicate that well so people understand, were normalizing, were starting to normalize but we cant wait to raise the funds rate until the Balance Sheet tapering the asset because it could be then later than we would like. Ford guidance cant solve all of the problems we have. I think that is another lesson. The third lesson is it is true i think of most institutions, whether you are in private sector or Public Sector institutions, we are often fighting the last war. In this case, we could not get inflation up to our target. No matter what we did. Working, working, working over 2019 to get it up. You go into the next saying that features are going to be with us and so the transitory blip in inflation will be pulled down by the Gravitational Force of inflation going back to 1. 8 . That did not turn out to be true. I think this discipline of not always fighting the last war, having an eye on the last war and the lessons we learn and having an eye on the future so you could say were only it just makes us more agile and more able to move forward. The thing you have to learn if your central banker, it is a humbling experience. You do your best work, or as earnest as you can be and tries hard as you can come and you still have to find you did i do every thing as you wish you would do if he had the benefit of hindsight. But we have the benefit of learning. We have to take those lessons and use them going forward. To make sure i understand, lesson one, these big shocks have longer lasting effects than you anticipate. It is true that financial crisis of the pandemic. Secondly, the fed had said were not going to raise Interest Rates until we get done with the tapering of the quantitative easing, quantitative tightening and linking those we would not do that again. I would not do it again. I dont speak for anyone else. The third thing is, a mindset thing. We were so used to having too little inflation it was hard to conceive that we needed to deal with the other. Those are my three things. Again, i think this is ripe for study and im open to whatever you want to point me to. I what to turn to the banking situation. Just to review, we had a couple of bank failures. There are, for historical reasons, we have many Different Bank regulators in the u. S. The Federal Reserve is responsible for the overall Financial Stability and has responsibility assigned by law for the very biggest banks. But the smaller and midsize banks, kind of depends on how they are organized. Some of the banks that failed were not members of the Federal Reserve system so you dont have to take the blame for their failure. But probably the most spectacular one, Silicon Valley bank, was in the San Francisco district. First of all, could you talk a little about exactly how does this Bank Supervision work . What is the responsibility of the board of governors in washington and what is the responsibility of the supervisors who are on your payroll San Francisco San Francisco in . Happy to take that question. Unpack the supervisor efforts of the fed. The vice chair supervision michael barr and the chair of the fed jay powell, jerome powell, have said supervision is a systemwide activity. But different parts of the system have different roles and responsibility. Let me walk through what those rules of responsible vr because they are very welldefined and definitive. Often given to us by congress. At the very top, ill start with regulatory policy, the wrigley torrey framework as we call it. That is the responsibility of the vice chair supervisions. In this case, michael bar. There are different vice chairs of supervision and those individuals hold the decision rights and responsibility to set the Regulatory Framework. They are we have accomplished regulatory system in the u. S. And there is a regulator internationally so the vice chair would work in that ecosystem, not just by himself, but he says the regulatory agenda. He just spoke this morning talking about that. If there was a vote required, that would be a board of governors vote. The reserve banks dont play any role in policy. We dont have a voice and policy. We dont have a vote in policy. This second piece of the supervisory system is once the Regulatory Framework is in place and it evolves and changes, not static framework. But once that is there, there is the second thing which is the supervisory framework. That is how we going to take the wrigley tory policies in place and apply them to the bank, in this case in the feds purview. In this case, michael bar would set the supervisory framework and that is going to be everything from how many exams are formed for banks of different sizes, the stress test, how we do those stress tests. That is all the purview of the vice chair supervision. The third thing, and this is where reserve banks for come in, the execution of supervision. Was the Regulatory Framework and the supervisory framework are sad, then he had to go out and do the day to day work to supervise the institutions in the fed system. That is a joint process, a joint effort. It is the effort of the teams in each of the reserve banks. San francisco as a team and so to the 11 banks in the Federal Reserve system and the board of governors has a team. Those teams Work Together to supervise the institutions across the country. You asked specifically, the team of San Francisco. Some know and some may not, the team in San Francisco, they work for the San Francisco fed. If you working in kansas city, work for the kansas city fed. The supervisor activities that those individuals do our up to the board of governors. The reason you want that to be the case is because you want supervision to be executed homogeneously, similarly, across the country. You want a bank in north dakota that the same experience as a bank in new york as florida as texas or california. You dont want variation depending on regional fed you are at or who is the president. President s play in Important Role in the following way. The most important thing to take a what is the support role. My job is to support the supervision that is the vice chair supervision has set out. How do i do that . How do all regional fed president s do that . We staff the bank with people who can do the job well. We ensure they are being the best in public service, doing what is required of them as supervisors. We are interacting on a regular basis with the board because the board oversees these teams. When gaps are exposed, we were collectively to fix things or if we see gaps, we raise them to the Supervisory Staff so we can get better. The second control the regional Bank President would play, i play, is banks in our system, they dont work in a vacuum but they work in an ecosystem of the company. One of the things i take responsibility for is saying, heres what is going on in the economy in the district and this is what i see happening in the banks about experiences. They can influence the economy and the economy can influence them. And report that back. It is the input for michael bar and supervision as well. I want to make sure you asked me more questions wherever clarification is needed but the thing about what vice chair barr and chair powell said and i want to reinvest size is that supervision in the feds assistant effort. While many of us do not own the decision, those rest only with the board of governors or the vice chair were michael barr, when the outcomes are not what we want them to be, collectively work to make them better going forward. Roughly how many supervisors work for the San Francisco fed . Roughly a little under 400. They work for you in that you are their boss but what they do is dictated or overseen by the board of governors . That is absolutely correct. When the badge they have to get in would be to the San Francisco fed, there would be an employee of the San Francisco fed, participate in all of the aspects of being a San Francisco fed ploy, holding up to the values and things we espouse. But their work would be dictated and overseen by the board of governors. Again, i want to add because this is so important, this is a feature of the system that is built into get continuity. It is also because Congress Gave the board of governors the responsibility of supervising and regulating banks, not the reserve banks. Is often said the Federal Reserve bank in washington is delegated. That is correct. This was not a great example of excellent supervision. I know there are lots of issues with the management of Silicon Valley bank, but barrs report has said that supervisory approach was too deliberative, focused on the accumulation of supporting evidence before you did anything, so im sort of curious what lessons have you learned from this recent experience and how what is changing as result . Sure. One of the reasons we do reviews and i was supportive of the review michael barr did and the gao did report and theres another one coming out in the fall. These reports and reviews are essential to us, learning from people outside the exact system where they think we could have lessons. ss the vice chair report has identified several areas. I want to pull on when you mentioned specifically and that is the deliberative nature of things, which is another piece of language to say there is a slowness between when things are spotted and when there are Enforcement Actions were other things are taken. That pipeline of speed, well, that pipeline is not speedy at any juncture. One of the things we can do exactly at the San Francisco fed with the teams is not make everything perfect before you raise your hand. They are raising their hands. You see clearly in the report, identifying issues. At every juncture if you are identifying issues but theres another level of vetting, sometimes can be slower than you need to be. I think that is one of the things the report has pulled out. That is not just a San Francisco or port of governors thing, that is the way you can improve the supervisor process by just making it we are spotting things, raising her hands. You dont have to be absolutely sure because we are capable people, we can raise this and by we i mean the system not me because again, i dont play an active role in supervision. That raise issues and have deliberations and see. I think the bias has to be to raise issues as opposed to waiting until you have every shred of evidence. That is what being too deliberative i think has made. That is a lesson. The other lesson i got from this, and it is something we can use cash you say, mary, do you not have strength at all there . I would say absolutely not. We have a lot of strength. We know from. The banking stress or from periods where it was all hands on deck moment like the pandemic or we need the banks to mediate, we are good at moving things speedily. Look at the agility with which the fed, the fda back by treasury acted after Silicon Valley bank and Signature Bank failed. It was a weekend. Have a new facility opened. We have banks that were caught up in any spillovers, getting the liquidity they needed. That is a rapidity that is obvious. The question is, how do we bring that same sense of agile news agility, how do we bring that to our everyday work so we continue to do things as well and as studiously and as carefully as were used to and we still move actually threw them so we dont end up with a finding it is too deliberative. I would use a specific example but lessons that can be broader of this example, i mentioned we are always fighting the last war. If you think of the Financial Stability report, all the things we do after the financial crisis, we are very we have lots of study going out with a vulnerabilities and things but we also have to have an eye around the corner post of insured and uninsured deposits. The stickiness factor that we believe we had on uninsured deposits i believe banks believed they had it that we as regulators supervisors, not just in the u. S. But across the globe, thought these were near neighbors. They turned out not to be when people can move quickly move money quickly and people know each other, you can have runs on institutions and when they are not insured past the limit, those runs are easy to think about doing. When you have, i many may not be safe i am moving. My money may not be safe, i am moving. We have to look around the corner and see how things could be occurring work akleh. Ultimately, we wont know everything. We dont have a crystal ball. Have you changed anything at the San Francisco fed as a result of this . Not just San Francisco. This is one aspect of the fed i hope you will all take away, the way we work is as a system. The vice chair is working on how do we think about revising the supervisory framework at large . How do we use all of us to do that . How do we Work Together so it is not just the San Francisco fed, it is supervision in general. Ultimately, it happened in San Francisco but when a bank fails in another district, the thing i have in my mind, what do we learn from that . Ultimately is a system and it can happen anywhere. It happened in San Francisco. The lessons from your are very direct. I am owning them. I am sure my teams i tell my teams all the time, our job is simple. We learn from what happened, we take on the feedback very, very seriously, and we get better right away. One of the ways we do that is we raise our hands. We were always raising our hands, but raise them higher where you say what is the escalation pattern for that . Does your staff feel their concerns were not heard loudly enough from washington . I dont think i can say that, no. Let me be very clear, i cannot say that. This is not a failure of a specific group in the fed system. The vice chairs report details this. This is a step back, look at the process, find the process of deliberation when we think about deliberation, i want to be clear. Why are supervisors deliberative . Because they want to be careful. They want to be right. Private Sector Companies doing jobs and they want to make sure theyre not over correcting an under correcting. You dont want to ratchet down the Financial System out of fear. You want to be careful, but you can easily move yourself one way or the other. This is a delicate balance. My teams are going to work with the teams across the system and do their best work. One final question before i turn to the audience. Each Federal Reserve bank has a ninemember board of directors. Three of the directors are banks, bankers elected by the bankers in the district. Three are not bankers selected by the bankers in the district. Three are appointed by the Federal Reserve bank board of governors in washington. Of the bankers on your board, one of them was the ceo of Silicon Valley bank. That leaves leads to speculation somehow the advisors went easier on izzy because the president was on the board of directors. When people tell you that, no, im not the first person to say that, what you tell them . It is not true. Let me tell you why. When you look at it, you wonder. Let me tell you why that isnt happening. The very first thing to note is supervision in the board of directors are completely separate from one another. We talked about how supervision is done in the u. S. It is done to the board of governors. My teams in San Francisco work for the board of governors on the supervisory role. Those issues are never, ever discussed at the board of directors meetings. The board of directors meetings i got managing the other aspects of the bank and about learning about the economy and getting folks on the discount rate for Monetary Policy. We never talk about Bank Supervision at ford meetings. We focus on the economy at large and also the aspects of running the bank more generally. That ring fence is critical and allows us to have, by statute, bankers on the system. Another fact people dont know is bankers are recused from any decisions around appointing Bank President s. They dont get to choose or be involved or do interviews. They are completely separated. I see all of these checks and balances in place as the right things to do given you what to get information from the baking system, part of collecting information about the economy, but you definitely dont want to blur the lines. While i understand optics would be such to ask the question, i can absolutely say the protections in place preventing those types of things from happening. I believe when new Bank President s are chosen, it is the six members of the board of directors who are not bankers who have that authority to recommend the choice . Correct. I think we have time for some questions. Heres what i recommend, the mic coming over here. Stand up, tell us who you are, try not to get a speech. Or i will cut you off. You mentioned in the beginning your focus on data. Could you talk about the extent to which you feel the fed has access to highquality granular racial ethnic data so you can look at impacts of Monetary Policy on different groups from a disparity perspective . Sure. As many of you in the audience know, there is a lot more Information Available now and a lot more attention paid to disaggregating the data, if you will, so we understand what is happening not only in different geographic areas but also in different ethnicities, racial groups by gender, skill. We do have a lot of information about that. The limits to understanding that were completely are about the data collected, which is why we have to go out and talk to our communities as well to augment that. We cannot just look at the Current Population survey data, do the cuts, and feel like the simple sizes are not sufficient to look in communities like that and get realtime information. Information you can make policy on. It is why we have a Community Advisory council, why we meet with groups regularly to ask how they are expressing the economy, where we have added in San Francisco and many districts a community to the beige book. That was a recent addition where we are going into communitys of color or different ethnicities were we had not as much information. I feel like we are relative to what i started in the fed in 1996, we are eons further along but this is a journey. It is also true you think you have insight into one group, a pretty good handle on it, these are pretty diverse world out there where the aggregates dont really experience reflect the expense of anyones we have to keep digging and find those types of information. Start here. I am sam. I am wondering, spoke a bit about the fsoc. I know there moving away potentially from a required costbenefit analyses for potential nonbanks to be designated as nonbanks under fsoc guidance. Are there other quantitative ways of resonating companies as formal nonbanks to come under increased scrutiny barr barr throughs evaluation . This is an example of where Federal Reserve Bank President doesnt have policy i dont have any input in the policy process so i cant really speak to what youre asking directly. But i can say there are processes in place to designate the different groups banks, nonbanks, etc. Part of the Public Comment and getting the information is understanding how people feel about those distinctions. I cant really comment on the specifics because im the vice chairman. Pedro . Thank you. I was wondering how much credit typing have you seen or heard about since the crisis and is there any concern the rebound in bond yields back to the levels we saw in march could lead to another wave of Regional Bank issues . Let me start with back in march, and this will be just reflecting my views. There is no, as far as i know, precise way to calculate this. Picking about what happened to lone vines, what has happened to lending standards. Is that more or less that we would expect given the slowing of the economy. Back in march, i actually, and i said the sparkly back then, publicly back then, sticking a credit tightening, not just a failure of the Silicon Valley bank, but the signature first republic, the other banks on the risk list of investors, that could in up with maybe 25 to 50 basis point equivalent rate hike. At this point, it seems to be less than that. If you plot aggregate lending, you would see it is not really different than you would expect given the projected slowing of the economy. When you look at this loose, looked senior loan officer survey. This is an acronymfree zone up here. Luckily, i have an interpreter. Sometimes i remember the acronym but forget what it stands for. If you look at all of those indicators, what you see is they were starting to show tightening and slowing loan growth before the bank stresses. That is consistent with what we would expect with raising Interest Rates. You want banks to look at their Balance Sheets, understand the economy is going to slow, and start positioning for Interest Rate risk and other things. This is how we would want them to behave. At this juncture, here is my sense of things. If you look at history, it takes a while credit shocks have a lag. I dont think we can declare there is no credit shot from baking stresses. I think we could still see it coming in the next number of months. I have an open mind about what that is going to be. It is another reason i was very supportive of standing pat in june and waiting for more data to come out. The other thing i will say about them is we are seeing a lot of difference to putting on what size the bank is. The big banks and even the pretty large regionals, they seem to be just inline with the slowing of the economy. I still hear from my Community Banks that there definitely tightening more out of a concern about the larger banking stresses. But how much more is hard to say. The final thing is, ultimately, what i walk away with is the Banking Sector is sound and resilient. That is partly because of the swift and to fight Decisive Action the fed and the board of governors with the fcic and treasury help and the backstop facility we have, the btsp, the Bank Term Lending facility it is really hard to do it when you are on stage. If i was in the office, i would be rattling off should be no acronyms without vowels. That would be helpful. Youre doing this on the weekend so it is hard to come up with a name. That is what gpt is for. You have the swift action, which is calming the stress is quite considerably. Now it is understanding banks are getting their Balance Sheets in order, responding to the fact investors and consumers have a of sight into Balance Sheets at their institutions and managing through that. Our job and my job as a policymaker is to understand that can still have an impact on the economy and be watchful for that as we do the hard job of trying to get to the last part of our rate hiking cycle. The other was bond yields have gone up. Losses on their portfolio. That just recently happened. I try to hold myself not a weeks worth of market data, not a months worth of employment data. We will come back to that if it should stick. I want to the economics profession has a problem with diversity. It is a problem that has been seen as hostile to women and to people of color. It has become very much physicslike on the map. I think that may turn offs people because it seems so unconnected to their lives. If you could think for a minute as if the audience were first and second year students in economics about why you think it has been rewarding for you and how you dealt with the fact you did not look like most of the other people who were getting ph. D. s when you got yours. Absolutely. Here is the thing about economics. In order to do economics well, you have to know a lot about human behavior. You have to be a student of psychology and a student of psychology in the map. Economics, i mean, i love this type of profession. Why do i love it . Because every day i do something. It matters for lots and lots of people. I dont take that responsibility lightly, but i like i get up every morning thinking what i study, what i say, how i think about the world matters for people i will never meet and i better do my job well. And when i dont do it as well as i like, i better do it again and try harder the next time. There are few professions for me that i found that have that kind of rewarding thing that you did deeply understand human behavior. Get to go one side afternoon and ask people what theyre thinking and combined that with the deafness of using models, history, be a great student of history as well. You have to put that together and combine the science of that with the art of understanding the data wont fit together today the same way they fit together just a year ago were two years ago. And figuring out what that picture is so you can get the best policy outcome is extremely rewarding. Like many in people, when i said, not too many people around here look like me or think like me or what to do what i do so is this the right profession to me . One of my early, early mentors said, well, if not you, then who . The world needs you, mary, to do this. My response to each and everyone of you who might get a little wiggly as i, i dont know it is not that welcoming, well, it is our job to make it more welcoming. My job is to make it more welcoming them was welcomed to me and that will pass on to you and then you will come. My bottom line for inviting you to be dedicated to the profession like i am, extremely rewarding and we need you. Look at the world we live in. It needs a lot of support from people who have a great empathy for humans, and great understanding of the data, and a dedication to history and doing better. When you put those together, and every young people every young person i meet, i am an investor for economics. I say, if youre on a dark night and doesnt feel like you belong, just poke me. A lot of people have my text. They text me instead of calling me. Please join me in thanking president daly. [applause] if i can ask a favor for the people the room, stay in your seat until president daly leaves and then youre free to go about the rest of your day. Thank you all for coming. I have been told i can step down and mingle. Is that ok . Close i was told he did not want to. I am a feral cat. They want to be in a box and i want to rome. All right, mingle. Congress returns to legislative busins llowing the fourth of july holiday this afrnnt 3 00 eastern. Laaks are expected to continue more on president bidens judicial nominations, putting former new Mexico Democratic congresswoman to see as deputy agriculture secretary. The number two leadership post at the usda. Also the director of the justice departments olence against women office. The houses back in session tomorrow. Later in the week, members are expected to debate and vote on the annual fence programs and policy bl. Watch live cere of the house on cspan, the senate on cspan2, and you can watch all ofuroverage with our free video app cspan now or online at cspan. Org. Wednesday, fbi director Christopher Wray testifies that an oversight hearing before the house judiciary committee. Watch live on cspan3, cspan now, or online at cspan. Org. If you ever miss any of cspan coverage you can find it anytime online at cspan. Org. Videos of hearings, debates, and other events feature markers that gather you to newsworthy highlights. These markers appear on the righthand side of your screen when you hit play on select videos. This tool makes it easy to get an idea of what was debated and decided in washington. Scroll through and spend a few minutes on cspans points of interest. Cspan is your unfiltered view of government. We are founded by these companies and more, including comcast. You think this is just a Community Center . It is way more than that. Studentsrom low income families can get the tools they need to be ready for anything. Comcast supports cspan as a public service, giving you a front row seat to democracy. President biden traveled to the united