Transcripts For CSPAN Scottish Attitudes Toward The Independence Referendum 20140907

Modifying them to treat vitamin a deficiency throughout the world. If we can get them the food they need, i say why not. Both the safety and nutritional value is inconclusive and highly disputed. There is no difference between a few eight oral if you ate organic and regular food. Who is determining responsible for determining whether the foods should be labeled or ignored . Join us during washington journal for the theme of the cody 15 two mccammond of thetary come 2015 student cam documentary competition. Onthey hosted a discussion Scottish Independence and recent survey data about the our about the issue. This is about one hour 30 minutes. Good afternoon. Welcome to the Wilson Center. I am a senior scholar at the center. I would like to ask that everyone turn off their cell phones. The Wilson Center is a nonpartisan place for tackling policy issues. The whole is forming actionable. Deas for policymakers the program on global europe addresses vital issues affecting the relationship through scholars in residence who. Rrived yesterday seminars, International Conferences and publications. These activities cover topics like European Energy security and europes role in setting Global Standards with governments and human rights. Today, we are focusing on a problem that has not existed in an active sense in europe for some years but is heating up again. Thats the issue of secession, notably scotland on the eve of the referendum for independence. This referendum will occur on september 18 and will decide whether the country will be the First Western european state in recent history to secede. After two years of campaigning, it would seem many of the issues are sorted out and the public has a good understanding of them and the media has shared that understanding with us. But our speaker today, using very recent data and the only large scale representative, comprehensive survey research in scotland will show where this general list of about scotts attitude toward that may be empirically wrong. After showing where the polls stand and what we may expect as polling day approaches, this will focus on how the attitudes of scottish people in International Affairs have often been misrepresented, in particular with relation to the European Union, scotlands role in the world and Nuclear Weapons in scotland. The talk will identify issues that will still move the in either direction before casting their votes will stop those of you who see the financial times, there are three stories today, provoked in part by a poll released on tuesday. It shows the race as closed and the polls at least to a 57 to a to 43 vote in favor of no that is the continuance of the u. K. This poll has a margin of error ofs or minus three, so if correct, it has closed quite a bit from the polls of at least three weeks ago which were showing an average of 18 to 20 gap. It is our privilege today to have the doctor with us to discuss this issue. He is a specialist on survey research and is currently the social and policy chair at the adversity of Edinburgh School of political science. Hes the Principal Investigator on to economic and social Research Council funded projects on the future of the u. K. And scotland. It is investigating the attitude of scots in relation to this referendum. It is a pleasure to welcome you here and we look forward to your comments. He has a powerpoint and we will go through some interesting slides which we can discuss in greater detail. Thank you and thank you for the opportunity to speak about the referendum. Its a great opportunity to speak about outside of scotland because the discussion becomes a more dispassionate and political at times, especially in the more heated context that we have right now. I want to give you a very brief background to the study. If you have more questions, feel free to ask. I want to outline the situation right now taste on our data and the data based on the polls we have conducted. Then i want to discuss what counts for voters because what has been said and certain topics have dominated the discourse, but what is crucial is what voters think and what differentiates yes from no voters. Specifically, looking at attitude towards the eu and scotlands role in the world. Finally, i close with two short bits the issue of referendum turnout which is crucial for the result, but for anyone interested in democracy, crucial because we may see items that go beyond the referendum and a specific item saw the voting age lowered to 16. The question might be whether that is a good idea or not . I will speak at most four 40 minutes so that we have time to speak afterwards. I will rush through the slides quite a bit but they will be made available if you want to study them in more detail. The idea is to give you a broad overview so that you can pick your topics for discussion afterward. The background, it is now 15 days away. In scotland, people are noticing, even people who have been researching this for two years, this is actually happening. We have been working on it for years and we have to Campaign Groups come a that you might know, the yes scotland focused her on the Scotland National party in government at the moment and have the majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament and could ask for this referendum to take place. It takes place in agreement with the u. K. Government, so it is not one directional. Both sides will accept the outcome of this referendum. If it is a yes vote, scotland will likely become independent. On the other side, theres a campaign advocating for a no vote and scotland staying in the union. That is largely made up of three unionist parties conservatives, labor and the liberal democrats and by alastair darling, former chancellor of the exchequer. The background is to projects. It is public funding that fund this research which means i am entirely politically neutral. We have been accused of both sides by favoring the other, so that shows we are neutral come i think. I have no particular view one way or the other. Two bases here the cottage the Scottish Social Attitude survey that has been conducted we are partners in this together from the university of edinburgh. It is a highquality, face to face survey and the most comprehensive on Political Attitudes in scotland that goes through stringent design processes and with the funding we receive, we could develop large modules for specific questions on the referendum. We have a time dating back to 1999 that allows us to check how some of these things have developed since the establishment of the Scottish Parliament. There is a website where you can access all the data on constitutional change from the survey. The aim is to create Research Output during the debate and it is run by the scottish social research. There is a specific survey of 19yearolds because when the voting age was lowered, young people are not engaged and will not vote, but we have been data because they are not usually part of the electorate. We are also one of the parents of the young person who was interviewed. We produced Research Results but have developed a set of teaching research. As i said, i want to keep this brief and Start Talking about the actual results. What is the situation right now . The first simply shows you a plot of all the polls that have then conducted since the referendum has been agreed. Should scotland be an independent country . I already got my voting ballot. What you see here is the nose, the bottom in blue, yes. What you see is there is no single opinion poll apart from the one commissioned that had leading questions and all other polls show no was in the lead and that has been consistent. We also see its a bit narrower toward the end. It also looks as if theres a lot of volatility. Why there is so much difference is the different polling institutes have come up with very different results and very different baselines. Some consistently polled at the higherend and some at the lower end. The reason it is so difficult to poll here is the turnout is expected to be very high. A lot of people who dont usually vote will be taking part. That is the reason polling institutes have come up with different results. It is hard to say which ones are right. It is very hard to assess, so what we usually do is use the averages. It doesnt mean the averages right, but a gives us the best view. If a lot of holes move in the same direction, we understand probably what is happening. We can do this for the time for which the question was agreed. What you can see first of all is in 2013, nothing happened. At the beginning of 2014, we saw the biggest shift in the polls. In the subsequent months, there was very little movement, so april, may, not much happened. In july and august, we saw a bit of an increase. But this is a view of all the polls that have been conducted in august. It looks like there is a lot of volatility but thats the difference between the polling institutes. Some are closer to 40 . But polls that have been conducted saw an increase in the yes vote. Most crucially, the poll mentioned yesterday is the most interesting. The single pull doesnt say much but it was close to a 40 yes vote and is now polling close to 47 . We have clearly seen a narrowing of the gap so they are looking on average of that east 45 to 55. The most recent polls, polling 47 to 53. This race is definitely a close race at this stage. This debate has been going on for some say at least 300 years. This focus on the process since scotland saw a vote in parliament. People could say it should be part of the United Kingdom, but i will summarize that as evolution. That is not evolution. This is a trend since 1999. You see in the middle, independents, at the bottom, those who say no to evolution. Independence was never the favorite option. Some of the people say we would like more devolution than we have had at the moment. What is clear is its somewhere between a quarter and a third. Lower levels were measured since 2007, which is when the s p became part of the Scottish Government. It seems at first slightly strange. Will stop we can show this that people evaluate it better since the snp is in power. Before 2007, it was always the case that people said it is less than its fair share of spending. Since 2007, the portion that says fair share is equal. People have a more positive evaluation, but people have a more positive evaluation that may convince them of independence. Who benefits more from the union, scotland or england . If you ask in england, you get the opposite view. But a larger group always used to say england benefits more than scotland. Since 2007, that has become much more even. But since 2011, we have seen a separation and more people saying england benefits from the union. Might not be surprising since 2010, we have a conservative government and the conservative party is not particularly strong. That is the big picture. What is happening now . Crucially, what counts for the voters. Im going to start by using an overused quotation, but it is the economy. It is very clear that nearly everyone who thinks scotlands economy would be better scotland became independent indicates they vote yes and nearly everyone who says it would do worse indicates they would vote no. I teach statistics classes and i will be using that as a reallife example as a nearperfect correlation. We can see this clear crystallization has increased throughout the referendum, so this has become the dominant issue that relates to peoples evaluation. Even in 2012, those who said scotlands economy would be a little better, only half supported independence at that point. They are nearly all voting yes. Its a clear crystallization of this process and we see the same for those who have a more negative outlook. The economy differentiates the yes and no vote better than any other variable. If we dont use the word independence, we ask what is your ideal for how scotland should be governed, the Scottish Parliament should decide rethink stop or we could ask an offer that has maximum evolution. That is the most strong proponents are suggesting. What is crucial here is those who say the Scottish Parliament should decide everything for scotland, i. E. That people for whom their ideal would the, that number has increased substantially from 31 in 2013 to 41 in 2014. Thats a big jump of people who say my ideal is scotland governs itself. I call this group independence sympathizers. We are not only analyzing those people who say the Scottish Parliment should decide ridding themselves. Only 56 indicate they would vote yes in this survey. A small group says, about 10 no, and this is data from may to july, that they were still undecided. There is a sizable group and some of those undecideds are leaning towards yes or no votes. That is not a small group. The people who have as an ideal that they should apply everything, they are not indicating they would if only vote yes. Thats still 13 or 14 of respondents now. Thats a sizable group not acting on their ideal. Why is that should mark you might not be surprised, but its because of the economy. Those sympathizers indicate a would vote yes and nearly all of them think scotlands economy would be better after independence. They indicate they would either vote no or are not fully decided yet. That is a much more mixed picture. Crucially, what this says to us is when people have the idea of scottish selfgovernance, if they are not invent scotlands economy would do well, the may not act upon the ideal that its superimposed on other issues. There are a few other issues not as strongly related, but also very strongly related. One is the issue of social inequality. Scotland is a much more left leaning society, they are more likely to vote labor, but if you analyze peoples views, the Public Attitude towards benefits, then scottish views are only a few percentages more left than english people. They are always coming together in the same way. In 2012, only half of those who thought scotland would be more it will society indicated they support independence, but now were looking at 80 . This is the issue the yes campaign has been focused on and it is an issue that polarizes voters much more than it did before. So that is a success. Another issue people care about is scotlands role in the world. People who think scotlands voice in the world would be a lot stronger, by and large tend to vote yes. It matters, clearly, but it does not matter as strongly. Those who think its only going to be a little stronger there is something going on. People care about scotlands role in the world and i will come to issues of Nuclear Weapons in a little while. Its not a strongly related as the valuations related to the economy. This is what you get when you put different factors into regression modeling. All of the factors are related to each other, of course. Then we can look at what has the strongest effect. The top four issues that are and she yes and no voting are all issues that reflect on what people expect what happened to scotland after independence. What they think would happen the number one issue is the economy, scotlands voice in the world, the pride of scots, then the then there is a substantial gap and we get National Identity. National identity is correlated, but much less strongly than the economy, inequality expectations and what is scotlands role in the world. What is also less strongly correlated are the graphic issues. Men are more likely to vote yes but thats less strong than the pragmatic evaluations. Lets talk for a moment about National Identity, because that is a crucial issue. I did some work this week in berlin and german journalists tend to be disappointed when they come to scotland and report about it because they expect people with blue face paint shouting freedom out but thats not how the debate goes will that has to do with National Identity. Most scots have always reported that to some extent they are scottish and to some extent, they are british. Most people report multiple national identification. Only about 10 that has hardly increased. Scotland has not become less scottish. However, the group that says they are equally scottish and british has gone up and conversely, the group that says they are only scottish at the bottom in blue has gone down to only about a quarter. The scots are less likely to emphasize their scottish identity over their british identity, but they are much more scottish than british. That is how this relates to the referendum, to support scotland becoming an independent country. Even in 2014, only 60 of those who said they are scottish and not british at all indicated they supported independence all this relationship for a while there is a correlation, is much less pronounced than the previous correlations i have shown you. National identity matters but less to an extent of what actually will happen to scotland. Now, the European Union, obviously related to those issues, it dominated the media debate and political debate in january and february in scotland very much. The Better Together site emphasized the issue of the European Union affairs very much. There was a statement by the commission residence at the time about saying scotland would have to reapply and there had been implications about spain and belgium are going to veto scottish membership. Although, while a lot of spanish politicians have commented they would not make this an automated process, the Spanish Foreign minister has stated there would not be an automatic veto. The Scottish Parliment had a long hearing process and consultation on this issue with experts and the key thing is experts dont really agree. Most people agree there would not even an automated rss. Most would agree scotland would not be out partially because as we know, decisions from the European Unions are not just legal decisions, but political decision. As a country have an interest in scotland being outside the European Union considering the strong movements of students, considering scotland has the largest fishery grounds in the European Union, which the spanish fleet are accessing. What is clear amongst most academics is there seems to be agreement that neither the extreme side on either part of the spectrum is as rigid in reality as it is. There would probably have quite lengthy negotiations but theres also highlighting that scotland would become part of the European Union. Its a very interesting legal debate and political debate, but the question was why didnt the polls go up for the no side when scotland not being part of the European Union were made. The majority of scots clearly would like to be in the European Union. Over 70 say scotland, just around there say scotland should be part of the European Union if it were independent. But its not a decisive issue, some people are moved on this issue because yes supporters and no supporters have the same position on the role in the European Union. Both groups would want to be in the union. It doesnt move people because scotland, and despite being more euros than english, it is much lower in scotland than in england. There is not a passion about europe in scotland either. Over 50 of scots, either scotland sorry, britain should leave the eu or should remain in the eu but we want to transfer powers back to the member states. Over 50 want a reduction of the eu powers. The majority of scots want to be in the European Union. But they want to do it for pragmatic reasons. Sometimes, especially continental media try to portray scotland, but that is clearly not the case. A similar issue that has gotten traction is the Better Together strategy in the tv no said we would not be able to use the pound. Those two things are about as far away from each other as possible. What currency do you think scotland would use if it became independent . 80 say they would like the pound. 15 think they would get to use the pound. You think they would like it and cannot get it would more likely to vote no but a are not. People are not moving on this issue very much. The core reason is they simply do not believe either side. The majority of people think that George Osburn and the no side want the negotiations are her words they also do not believe alex hammond. People are not acting on things that they think are completely uncertain. That is why this has not moved people when the interventions were made. Nuclear weapons, the other big issue that would have to be negotiated with the United Kingdom it is the Nuclear Weapons are based near glasgow where Nuclear Submarines are based and were several of them always are. The yes campaign has been advocating strongly for the removal of Nuclear Weapons from scottish soil. Public opinion again is not as clearly divided on this. 40 would be quite comfortable with the Nuclear Weapons staying if the u. K. Government paid a fee. Thats not exactly how we asked the question but thats how i felt we could read it. Here is the split on whether people agree that britains Nuclear Weapons submarines should continue to stay. There are more who say it should stay. The 35 on the other side but that is far from a perfect relationship. Even among the yes voters, its a substantial group. 50 say they do not oppose Nuclear Weapons so this is far from a perfect relationship. It is an issue that matters and there are some parts that really complain about this more than anything else but it is not decisive for the majority of the electorate. Thats the big overview. Looking at democracy and local participation be on the referendum itself, who was going to vote in this referendum . The simple answer is a lot of people. Voting turnout is not particularly high. In the last westminster day election, the last Scottish Parliament election it was just over 50 . We know that the polls report higher levels but the Attitude Survey only predicted about 60 . The scottish attitude is pretty close to these results. In the survey conducted may to july, we had three quarters he basically said 87 who were likely to vote. There is no precedent in u. K. Politics that would indicate any such turnout. Some of the recent polls are indicating up to 80 turnout. That is among all groups, yes, no, undecided. The undecideds are not those who have no interest in voting. There is a slight preponderance to yes. They have a slightly higher likelihood of voting. If were looking at a 4750 split, you know what that means. I just want to say, the actual vote results is not just a function of the polls but the views and voter turnout. It matters but its not massive. What is really crucial is this referendum has activated voters that usually do not take part. I use this as an example to illustrate this. Voting turnout by age. The youngest age group had 30 in the oldest had 80 turnout. That is a massive gap. That is what we get from the survey for the likelihood of turning out by age group. We hardly have any gradient. All. It is much narrower than it was before. We find this range of socioeconomic variables. The gaps are not completely closed in turnout but there narrowed substantially. People of lower socioeconomic class are more likely to turn up than usual. People who are generally less politically interested are more likely to turn out. The gap is much lower. In people not associated with any Political Party more likely to turn out. We have a lot of people participating are usually dont are dissipated. We estimate it might be between half a Million People who do not vote who suddenly vote and it makes it hard to predict what theyre going to do. These are the groups that are traditionally underrepresented. How do you wait about a political population whose behavior you do not really understand . Its very hard to say which of the polling institutes are getting it right. Its really difficult to assess that. This is from the survey. We still had 33 undecided. That sounds like a lot but it depends how you ask the question. A lot of polls only get 10 undecided. What would you do right now . And then you only get 10 undecided back in april or may because people would say that is where they are leading right now. Havent you made your mind up completely . You still get up to 25 . Then about half of the people have a leanings to either yes or no. On the survey a few months ago it was evenly split. The most recent polls have showed that the movement from undecided a stronger and that is how it is explained. Many undecideds have moved to yes over the last few months. Theres a group that does not indicate any particularly leaning. Genuinely undecided people who or those who do not want to disclose what they will do. That is now about 10 . You may say thats the group thats not going to vote. Again, about 70 of that group indicated that they will vote. We still have 67 of the electorate of home we do not know what they will do. Even with all the information in the narrowing of the polls, is a small group of people where we do not know what they will do. If they all go yes, we are clearly over 50 . It is very unlikely they will all go in the same direction. There is a degree of uncertainty that we cannot yet rid of. Polls are never predictions. If it is 40 60 , were the polls wrong . It could be the group went into it. Its not very probable. Would they be wrong if we got 55 . Its not very probable given what we have right now. These are the outcome margins but if we narrow that looking at a range between 44 and 52 , that seems quite probable based on the current results. I dont want to make a guess on what happens referendum day because there is a degree of uncertainty. There is a degree of uncertainty that we simply cannot get rid of and that is normal. Just briefly to say men are more likely to have made up their mind on the referendum and the Party Affiliates least likely to have made up their mind our labor and Scottish Party identifiers. There is a huge margin of error so take that with a note of caution because there are very few liberal democrat identifiers in scotland at the moment in people with my political interest to have more knowledge of the referendum and think it influences their life more are more likely to have made up their minds more. Please note. There are very few people who say this will not affect their life. While the percentage is quite high, very few people fall into that group. What does not matter is age, occupation, or class. It is not higher from semiroutine occupations. The final five minutes and i will have stuck to 40 minutes. We have been able to do the survey in 2013 in april and may. First of all, the youngest voters are not particularly swayed by the notion of independence. In 2014, we only had 28 yes many undecideds were taken out of the age group which was lower than the lowest yes poll. It could have been up to 31 obviously. I completely agree knowledge the error margin. In 2014, we had 36 yes votes so it has gone up. It is lower than the average population for the youngest voters. The political interest is not lower than the interest for adults. Political interests and Scottish Social Attitudes you know what we see is the distribution looks fairly similar. Young people at least have the political interest. As a small group with no interest at all but a Similar Group with adults, there are some young people who really dont care. Yes, it is very small group that you also have a small group of adults who do not care. Voting turnout, remember the low levels i showed you earlier for the lowest age group. Amongst those under 18 eligible to vote come a 72 with a further 15 that indicate they do not know yet. Only 12 said they are unlikely to vote. If you had asked before any previous election you would have had the majority in the unlikely to vote group. Gosh, yes. I will correct it before we upload this. Thank you for spotting that. Slightly embarrassing but i will correct it before we move on. We have 72 thats a rather likely or very likely. Thank you. The most decisive factor, and i will sound like a broken record here, is the economy. Nearly all the young people says the economy will do better in nearly all think it will do worse who will be voting no. How do we then explain that they are somewhat less likely than the adults to vote yes . Why is the vote higher among them if it is actually fairly similar . National identity is not the top priority but it does matter to some extent. Very few young people favor britishness over scottishand. Scottishness. They are less likely to prioritize their identity. That translates further to this trend of the beyond borders, last prioritization within one set of borders translating also to the European Union. 55 of adults say we should either leave the eu or reduce their power. For the young people thats only 27 . Theyre already very different of those with a higher likelihood of saying to reduce their powers. That makes sense. This makes sense generationally. They are the first generation and i will talk about this theyre the first to grow up growing up not knowing nonnetworked computers. Their parents probably order things online and they use the internet to buy airline tickets. The first time they went to a computer that now was connected to an internet, first on the open a web browser was a moment. This is a generation shift where National Identity Still Matters but those last reorganizing one over the other. Im scottish, british, and the number who actually identify as european has gone up as well. It is still in relatively small percentage but larger than the adults. That is just the overview. Thank you very much for listening, 40 minutes for a lot of figures, but i hope it gives you a lot of starting points for interesting questions and discussions. [applause] you demonstrated that the economy matters. [laughter] let me just clarify one thing on methodology. You indicated that the polls, the Scottish Social Attitudes of the face to face, among the other polls, were some of them conducted by telephone . There are six main polling institutes. Four of them use large internet polling and do border sampling within. We have one institute that does random digit dialing which i have to be fair, a pretty good method because we still have 80 landline penetration in scotland. We do telephone sampling. We waited for parental education as a proxy and got a quite good distribution there. It works relatively well but online polling has strong biases. And people are only half as likely to take part. They do not like taking part of any survey. There is one that uses a method that the others abandoned over the 1992 westminster election because so many of them got it so wrong with that method. That is a quarter face to face sampling. Interesting. Thank you for that further proof of clarification. We can move now moved to our economist so i think hes a bit torn where he would stand if he had a vote. I would lead to thank you for some very stimulating discussion and how they surprised with where their intentions seemed to be. Number one is thinking about the eu more broadly thinking about the collapse of so many empires yet there are still bits of the empire left. You see the basques, catelans, should the eu think about a paneu policy to allow for greater autonomy while still staying within the eu . The second has to do with the pound. Couldnt scottland decide to dollarize as panama has done . This goes to americanstyle politics and its an enormous pleasure to hear this that had been more thoroughly polled than the americans are used to. The get out the vote, is there a sophisticated system with each party identifying likely voters going to get them to the polls . Great questions. I will start with the first one. The issue, i simplified the european issue. You could do a talk just on the european question, obviously, and the political views and so on. Thats a strong interest. We do a lot of briefings in scotland on this. The spanish consulate is always there and a lot of catalan groups are always there surprisingly. There are the reemphasis and that is probably the other direction that would give people the feeling that the eu would secure the regional interest at the moment area you are absolutely right. If the eu would like to make itself relevant in this context, that is where they could be a moderator. I do also want to say in relation to the scottish context , there is a strong difference between different nationalist and separatist movements. The scottish one has not been emphasized in terms of cultural differences. When you talk about cultural autonomy, it is not unimportant. It is very much about selfgovernance and economic resources, inequality should it come up. It is much about this than National Identity or language. Clearly there was a language element that comes into it which is less important. If you poll in catalonia, youll see a stronger correlation. I do think the scottish case is somewhat different. It is one where the process has been agreed with the u. K. Government. There are things for the u. K. To do to invoke itself in terms of moderation function, i would say. I do think we have to be careful to not conclude too much from the scottish to the other context because there are some differences. The Scottish Government had commissioned an independent commission with several people. With commissions, you always ask who they picked. He critiqued u. K. Government policy in previous years. An independent commission that looked at the different options and they suggested the Currency Union is the best option. That is also the favored option in the polls, obviously. I will leave others to comment on that. They also came up with other options. Sterlingization is evaluated as a higher risk of not having control because not having a central bank. There are others who say how would that do on the markets . It is very clear if after independence the u. K. Government, where they would be, did not negotiate which would have to, with another option. The Scottish First minister has been saying they consider it to simply continue using the pound, sterlingization, but scotland would not take his share of the debt of the u. K. Which is one of those fights. He said it will not come to this. This is one of those issues that well know its colin becomes independent afterwards. It will be on top of the negotiation process. The interesting thing about this referendum is that it is not much about Political Party. Some of the debate is. They are not voting for a Political Party. This is one of the reasons why its easier to mobilize people. You can go to town Hall Meetings basically every day and villages, towns. The concept had pretty much died before. You have civic events, school events, everything. They are very good at mobilizing. The yes campaign is a bit better. There has been a lot of doortodoor campaigning. It has a tremendous impact on young people. Firsttime Voter Registration is close to 80 . Normally you would never get that. We are expecting what the exact figure is i do not know. We can be confident that it will be higher because there has been such a strong emphasis. The gentleman in the back. Could you identify yourself and wait for the microphone . Thank you. John, chief local correspondent Political Correspondent for newsmax. You mentioned earlier, catalonia, the flemish, other breakups that could the in the works and fueled by a vote for independence. Is there any evidence Vladimir Putin is looking closely at the results of scotland and could use it as a justification for crimea leaving ukraine or for the new state that he talks about . Second question, what would happen to the members of the house of commons and the house of lords who come from scotland . Would this have any impact on the British Elections scheduled for 2015 . I dont remember whether it was putin and or another populist but someone said, look, scotland is doing it, why cant we . I have not heard much. I dont think what scotland does would stop what russia is doing at the moment. There is obviously a fundamental difference in that the Scottish Independence referendum happens on an agreement between the elected government of scotland and the elected government of the United Kingdom. Its a mutually agreed system clearly by democratically elected governments. Even if the argument were invoked, it would be fairly easy to say why. The second question is really interesting. Since the polls narrowed, this has been discussed more and more in english newspapers. If scotland became independent it would not just be strong for scotland but the rest of the u. K. The Scottish Government said it would take about 18 months to negotiate independence that includes negotiating entering the European Union and nato. The most sympathetic academic commentators say it is very ambitious. Most people say its probably not. Others can comment on the feasibility. Thats not my area of expertise. Technically, scotland will remain part of the United Kingdom. Around may there would be elections to the house of commons that would see elections. They have to as long as scotland as part of the u. K. That causes the first issue. All of the government parties in westminster have promised further devolution. That brings several to say if they have so many things they can decide themselves about, how about the policies that only affect england of that there are are currently voting on in westminster . A lot of people are talking about it. It will have immediate traction on a no vote and it will become an issue. There would be two types of voting in westminster. The other alternative would be an English Parliament but that is barely unlikely very unlikely. The other big thing obviously is what will happen on independence day. What it means is that it will result in an effect that the government loses what they needed for the majority. Wouldnt have to resign . Or would there be a new coalition . Would there be new elections . Very hard to protect very hard to predict. It depends what party is in government and how strong the majority is. Even in the event of a no vote, we will have a lot of debate on constitutional arrangements within the u. K. That will follow. I want to call on william hill. Bill hill, a fellow here. First, a comment. Perhaps the Scottish Referendum could serve as an inspiration to Vladimir Putin and some of his colleagues for similar referendum in chechnya and other units in the northern caucuses. Ukraine is not the only unit or state that has experience. As for scotland, im curious in your data, perhaps you have it or perhaps you do not, on who votes and who does not and whether there are splits. There are presumably a certain number that will work elsewhere in the u. K. But have the right to vote in scotland. Are there geographical divisions . The differences in political preferences between edinburgh and glasgow, Something Like that. Im just wondering if anything shows up within scotland. Whats quite crucial is the franchise used for the vote is the same used for the Scottish Parliament. Otherwise you would have many debates. The franchise has been agreed on political culture in scotland for a long time so its not too contested which is good. Everyone who listed the scotland is a permanent residents, british citizen, qualifying commonwealth citizen gets a vote. Im german and the accent never goes away. [laughter] i have residency in scotland. Ive been living there for five years. You do not have to live there very long, but if you are a scot who has moved to england you dont get a vote. The franchise that is the same for the british parliament. Some people dont like that, but its not majorly contested. It is an agreed franchise. Thats the voting franchise. The only change was moving the voting age to 16 but that is with party consensus. We do see some geographical difference. Glasgow is slightly higher. The crucial thing is most of the geographical things can be explained in differences in the makeup of the population in those particular areas. People who live in more socially deprived circumstances have a higher likelihood of voting yes. The gaps have narrowed a little bit. You have a higher with fashion area with higher deprivation, you have a city or counsel with more socially deprived residents, you will have a higher yes vote. Most of the geographical is explained by differences in these differences in the regions. The gentleman here. Shes coming with the mic. Charlie kern, happily retired. What is the general state of the scottish economy now as contrasted with the state of the english economy . Does one or the other feel they are being pulled down by the other particularly with the scots looking at england and they see, i imagine, a lot more emigration there than has reached scotland yet. Changing demographic inflection of england, scotland, is that a factor here . Obviously, i will talk about the immigration point. There are fewer people born outside the you needed outside of the United Kingdom. Immigration has increased quite tremendously particularly with emigration from central and Eastern Europe with the new eu member states. That is one thing we know. In european migration to the u. K. , it is largely migration of skilled workers. Taking off traditional roles so on and so forth. There were not enough people in scotland. Needs migration because they are more rapidly aging over the next few decades. Thereby it is a demographic problem in terms of pension funding. Therefore the smp clearly states that they have more emigration policy that has currently started to restrict immigration more heavily. At least if it is based on scottish nationalism, although attitudes toward immigration have harshened has more attitude toward it than england. In relation to the economy, a lot of people in england will fight to use a figure that public spending per capita in scotland is higher than in the rest of the u. K. A lot of people in scotland will cite figures to you that show scotlands contribution to the assets of the United Kingdom is greater than its share of the population as well though. Its quite a longstanding debate. Generally speaking, scotland has a relatively healthy economy and its facing certain problems that a lot of other postindustrial countries are facing as well. If scotland becomes independent, there are loads of scenarios. They depend on 15 or 20 variables and its very difficult to say how it pans out. The middle of those scenarios effect of lycee scotland would be able to function as an independent country would not be disastrous but it would not be the land of milk and honey. Some things proposed on giving increasing welfare and reducing taxes that is probably not possible. It is probably somewhere in the middle. It depends on certain things like the oil price but it also depends on, for example, scotland has a very Strong Financial sector. After london, it number oh is the secondlargest, larger than manchester or birmingham, for example. Some of those banks and insurance is have shone operations. Some might consider moving to england if they do that. Others say they might invest more in scotland if it becomes more independent. Its very hard to assess. There are certain risks and opportunities and it depends on external influences, oil price development, the big debate emma how much oil is in the north sea . You have conflict in views. If you take the average on all of these, it basically would be probably a country that would have the same sort of problems that a lot of others have. If you want to increase welfare, you need to either increase taxes or cut Something Else. I sound vague here. I know that. If you read all of the different economic evaluations, you have to be somewhat vague because there are substantial risks and opportunities coming into it. The majority of the oil that is currently contributing to the u. K. , the oil revenues are over 90 in scottish water. The gentleman here in the blue shirt. Gerald chandler. Is this on . Can you tell us if you have data on things you have not talked about . How many scots live in england . Are they in favor of independence . How many britishenglishscottish mixed marriages are there . Another Research Group from wales just did a survey of the english and im sure there is a veritable in there that looks at this but i have not had the time. I only looked of the headline figures. I have not looked at that data yet. Englishborn in scotland, you will not be surprised that the majority intend to vote no. There was a large group there as well. I cannot talk about the english in more detail but if you want i can give you the reference to the team that did the research on my group. Gentleman in the corner, in the back. Perhaps an unfair question my name is ethan. You mentioned unsurprisingly, that what happens in scotland is unlikely to have any great influence in russia. What of the reverse . Through recent events in russia, syria, iraq, the recent spate of, for want of a better term very bad things, is this likely to induce any political conservativism or do we really just not have enough data to say . Its a really good question. Obviously, what you might say is the majority of scots are in favor of either independence or devolution. That is over 60 likely the option and most of those who say independence is their first option him and nearly everyone would then vote for further devolution then surprisingly. The majority of scots if you ask them right now still would say Foreign Affairs and defense are best done by the u. K. I think its a really valid question. Emperically, what we have seen over the last few weeks is obviously that the polls if anything have shown a shift to yes while we have seen an intensification of conflict and you crane but also other conflict that britain has a stake in with iraq, for example. That does not mean, however, that it does not matter for peoples of valuation but it might matter to those people who already have decided to vote no because they thought it was insecure. This is why i think we have quite a lot of people in the middle im sorry, one more jump year, the people who are undecided right now must have accepted there is a degree of uncertainty. If youre undecided you go with the status quo, but that might be true for two quick decision but if youve been thinking about it for two years, most people for whom any uncertainty is a problem, they will have already decided by and large to go to know. A large group of them will already be no. A lot of people will say under no circumstances do i think i want scotland to just defend itself, i want the quite powerful u. K. As my defender. Most of them are already no. They might see their views reaffirmed. The currency issue is a similar thing. They said it made them more likely to vote no or yes although the majority people who said that were those already who indicated they would vote yes or no. What this might do is cause some people to solidify their views on this. It does not seem to be shifting more people to this. Thats as far as i would go from what we can see in the data. The gentleman with the camera in the back. Im a journalist with army television. There is a similar situation in armenia but the conflict has not evolved yet. If people vote yes on september 18, do you think it becomes a Member International community, and the human member, will they pursue a policy of sympathy toward these kind of movements in the caucuses or elsewhere . I will do an exception for ukraine because they seem to be united against russia in terms of the train, but how about other similar conflicts . A quick second question would be about the agreement on independence from the result it will have on september 18. Do you think the agreement in the test will be more negotiable and set up a precedent for other similar conflicts . Now those who want to succeed can point to the agreement and say that they were more negotiable, so why should azerbaijan or georgia not do the same . I will not comment on any particular case just as i do not have enough knowledge on other specific cases. I think it will be a very difficult situation. They dont want to look hypocritical. But they do want to say that the selfdetermination of people is a positive thing and some voices of the scottish nationals think that. At the same time, they will want to join the European Union, nato. In that, i said on several occasions that theyre quite pragmatic. I think scottish politicians are also fairly pragmatic and some of the valuations and there might be some conflict there. I have a distinct feeling that in general rhetoric on the ward in an contentious circumstances they might be very supportive but on things where it would basically hinder their ability to integrate some of those things, that would partially depend on who the government of an independent scotland would be. The Political Landscape is going to change and its very likely you would see a stronger conservative vote or whatever centerright party you would have, it would not he associated with westminster english conservatives. The potential is there if you look at Public Attitudes. There are views that align quite closely with conservative policies. If you get a different government, you might have different policies. Its very different difficult to predict. They use that as an argument in terms because the key thing is they say if everything works out how it looks at the moment in the case that scotland became independent, it would look like a peaceful transition, hopefully. There is a difference that it is not seen as conflict. Very few have said that the political will is oppressed at the moment. The u. K. Government agreed to the referendum. Thats one of those key things that comes into it. I think that will be an argument in terms where they might want to differentiate themselves. Im staying think again because it would depend on context, external influences, and which parties would be forming the Scottish Government. Thats quite a difficult one. The lady here. Thanks very much. Im with policy connections international. I wanted to go back to your issue about the economy being number one. You mentioned that the yes vote is increasing in the most resident issue for people is that the economy would be better after independence. Is there anything in particular that has convinced more people to think that way . I notice businesses have weighed in on both sides of the debate. There seem to be more companies on the yes list than the no letter. Is that a factor . Or is Something Else persuading people that the economy could do better . There were two letters. The yes list has more companies but there are also smaller. Not surprising but mainly different types. Whats really interesting, actually is compared to 2013, overall and the Scottish Social Attitudes survey, we had fewer people that bought the economy would be better. But remember what i showed. There was a much clearer crystallization. I have to quote john curtis here because i did not come up with that word but it is crystallizing those who think of the economy would do better, nearly almost yes. It is within that group that nearly everyone is drawn to the yes side but the group has become slightly smaller compared to 2013. In august, in the polls, it seems to have increased a bit. It showed a big swing to yes and saw a quite substantial increase of people who thought the economy would do better. Overall, not substantially more people than 2015. It might even be a slightly smaller group, but that group has been convinced kind of to the yes vote. It makes it all even more complicated in the attitude information. It is a twoyearlong process with a lot of debate on multiple actors coming into this debate. Peoples attitude formation on this issue is quite surprising. Thank you very much. As you know, the American Government weighed in somewhat diplomatically on the no side. Im wondering if that has had any impact one way or the other or what the attitude is about that. Has there been any discussion about what sort of special relationship with the u. S. Would be in the event of a yes outcome . I remember because it was the day when we had just presented our new Research Results and we thought we were going to be out in the media today. When the statement was made by president obama, it did not influence the polls. Neither in january when commissioner barroso made his statement. The substantial answer i think is the issues about what happens in scotland dominates the decisionmaking. The mark placated answer we have seen from several people who did not move the polls but if you live in scotland, you know probably quite well, if you have ever been there, its never very fruitful to try to tell scots from the outside what to do. There is relatively little response to that. Its not that they dont care or that they did not matter but it is not something that people who are basing their views on because the core issues for people seem to be what happens in scotland in the future. Those issues were discussed but they are not the ones that people really grabbed onto to make the decision. The lady here. Im the next brits who would vote no on the issue if i had the chance. Im an exbrit. If the no vote succeeds, is this the end of the campaign or will it happen again . Some people have already said it will be the end of the scottish National Party as well. I do look to a other referenda but i think it is clear what there would be with internal reorganizations, but they would then campaign for the greatest level of devolution. If you remember before the campaigns really started with the Scottish Government advocated for was a ballot with two questions, one about devolution and independence. They insisted on a simple yesno vote simply because they did not want i think the key thing is if people vote for maximum devolution, very unlikely that would not have worked because of the other parties would have advocated as well, they would have been bound by the vote and now there would be negotiations in the event of a no vote. Snp would be at the forefront for advocating for further devolution in some agreement would be reached in the next few years and i think that it depends on the satisfaction. If you see within the next 10 years people become more satisfied with the settlement and the governments, what we saw earlier the way that people evaluate the relations between scotland and the u. K. Depend on the performance of the people who represent them which makes sense. If they would be confident about that and they like it, another run for independence might not be very successful. If there would be growing dissatisfaction, a feeling of being shortchanged, of course there could be another. Not within the next few years probably. The only thing that could be in the mediumterm and influencing factor would be if there was a referendum on the European Union that would be successful and in that context i can imagine at an earlier point in the future that issue would be brought back up. Otherwise, it would take quite a while, maybe. How long that would be, i dont know. The question down on the end here. This will be our final question. My name is robert. Im a doctoral student at georgetown. Im interested more in the historical reasoning behind some of this. You mentioned a lot of the younger generations are feeling equally british and scottish or less fully scottish and im kind of curious. Has there been policy changes from the english that have influenced that . Or whats going on in scotland perhaps you mentioned generation with the internet but are there other factors leading them to feel that way . We have seen an increase in being slightly more likely to say equally scottish and british. We have seen the increase in 2012 and we thought the london olympics. If it had been Something Like this, you would have seen a drop and we did not see another. It does not seem to just be Something Like the olympic games. Then policy in recent years. Schools are very careful. Weve been involved with a lot of schools here. Weve done a lot of school work and they are very cautious discussing political issues. Based on our research, they are probably too cautious because a lot of young people see schools as a place where they can discuss politics in a neutral setting. Some councils were saying they would prefer they did not discuss the referendum even in a neutral way because they are afraid their parents would accuse them of biasing. If anything, they are quite stubborn and dont like to be told what to do. The political confidence grows when they discuss it. Scottish schools are doing, anytime there is anything about curricula, for example, there seems to be emphasizing scottishness and theres a lot of critical commentary on this. There is now talk in the u. K. About emphasizing British Values and education. What that means in practice is to be seen again, education is a fully devolved matter to scotland so it will have little influence. I think those shifts, i would say they are not so strongly based on political things but more on experience. I would say more Research Needs to be done. Its quite nice to be at the university where some people have been researching National Identity for the last 30 or 40 years so its a very stimulating place to discuss that issue. Our website will have the slides after we make a couple of corrections to get in some likely votes. [laughter] they will be up in a day or so and you can consult them there. Join me in thanking our speaker for a very stimulating presentation. [applause] [captions Copyright National cable satellite corp. 2014] [captioning performed by national captioning institute]