Another. They do require a complex policy response that allows us to advocate for muchneeded democratic reforms while also ensuring our own security needs. At the end of the day, our policy and our laws must be nuanced enough to allow for a response that reflects our interests. It is my view that terminating u. S. Assistance at this time could provoke a further crisis in egypt that would not be to our benefit. Having said that, the future of our relationship with egypt will be determined by our actions in the coming weeks. Whether we will have a stable and willing partner in crucial matters of security, combating terrorism, trafficking of weapons and people, support for peace in the middle east. Lternatively, we can stand aside during this crisis and ust hope for the best. While our choices are difficult t this time, it is my view abandoning egypt would be a particularly poor policy choice. Whatever policy we ultimately choose during this time of upheaval in egypt, it is critical all parties exercise restraint, let protests remain peaceful, and that violence is rejected. The interim government should take those concerns to heart and above all in short the restoration of democracy bs transparent and inclusive as possible. Steps that exacerbated the divide in Egyptian Society, including the use of support and protesters the only way orward to a vibrant and stable democracy lies in the inclusion of all Political Parties and groups. Let me be clear our support is not unconditional and unending. T the end of the day, egyptian leaders and the Egyptian Military must show they are committed to a political process, credible democratic elections, and governors who protect the rights of religious minorities and women. On that subject, i am concerned about the treatment of christians, women, and refugees in a stabilized egypt. It means preventing the beating and killing of christians and exual assaults on women. Also, egypt turning its back. Egypts military an interim government should provide safe haven for innocent the billions fleeing the brutality of the asad regime. I hope Security Forces will be vigilant in the increasingly violent finite where innocent victims have been killed and terrorist groups have lost launched attacks. The egypt government must quickly overturn the recent convictions of 43 ngo workers. Must not stand. Their work to support the americans in a strong pluralistic democracy the choices that lie before us. With that, let me recognize our Ranking Member. Thank you. I want to welcome our witnesses. Ue to the dramatic changes that occurred in egypt, it is critical we take a look and take time to discuss our relationship. Sometimes, we forget we have Critical National security interest is in egypt. The most populous come get country in the middle east. It provides u. S. Military vessel, preferred access to the canal. Our two countries cooperate on counterterrorism. So, our policy right now is in a bit of a quandary. We are trying to decide how to move ahead with egypt, how the issue of the two affects what it was or was not, how it affects our policies going forward. I really do appreciate the witnesses coming in and giving us time to think with you as to how we move ahead with our policy in the quandaries we face. At the same time, understanding the importance of egypt as a strategic ally and, candidly, very important entity in the region we want to see stability prevailing. Mr. Chairman, i thank you for having this hearing. I thank you to the witnesses, and i look forward to your testimony. Thank you. With that, let me turn to our witnesses. I am pleased to introduce ambassador dennis ross. Created one of the nations most respected Foreign Policy lines. Welcome, ambassador, back to the committee. We also have with us dr. Michele dunne. She has served on the National SecurityCouncil Staff and policy and planning in the bureau of intelligence and Research State department. And ambassador daniel kurtzer, professor in middle east policies and studies. A Great Institution in the state of new jersey. Served in the Foreign Service for almost three decades and retired in 2005 and has been an ambassador in both israel and egypt. Thank you all for being here. Your full statement will be entered into the record without objection. We ask you to summarize your statement in about five minutes or so so we can have a dialogue with you. With that, ambassador ross, if you will start. Thank you. Last time i was here, i was here to talk about serious and the civil war there. It is no question that both our morals and Strategic Interests are engaged there. The response is very different, the stakes are very high. I find myself in agreement with hat you are saying in your statement. When we look at egypt, we know that egypt is perhaps the most important arab country. It is always one that affects the rest of the region. Politically, culturally it has been a trendsetter. When we look at the events of the arab awakening, they might have begun in tunisia but it was the events of Tahrir Square which captured the imagination of the world. It is an unsettling situation, to say the least. At a minimum, we have seen unelected leader removed, but i think when we look at the selected leader that was removed, we have to understand that the intervention by the military is an intervention that was very much backed by a very large segment of the egyptian population. A Critical Mass of egyptians feel that this leadership under president morsi and the Muslim Brotherhood was a leadership that was not addressing egypts problems. It was more concerned with control than it was with governance. While one can dispute the actual numbers that were on the petitions and one can question how many will be on the street, there is no question that a significant percentage of egyptians responded. What took place was a popular uprising. The military used that uprising to remove president morsi, but the reality is that today there is a good day of support for what the military has done. There are those within egypt, within the rest of the region hich would view what has taken place as a course correction and that helps to explain why ou look at the saudis and the kuwaitis having provided assistance and beginning to act on that. There is one narrative that describes this very much as a course correction, a popular uprising. Theres also a different narrative which comes from the the Muslim Brotherhood and the backers of president morsi who see a legitimately elected government replaced in an illegitimate way. They demand the reinstatement of president morsi. They make it clear that they will not allow things to remain as they are and they will ontinue to try to disrupt life within egypt unless he is reinstated. We have what can only be described as a deep polarization. There are efforts to mediate the differences, but it is difficult to see how these are likely to be mediated. We are bound to see this polarization continue for some ime. It will confront us. There will be difficult dilemmas. I think that we can look at the interim government which has many figures on it who are credible. We look at malawi and a number of others. They are certainly very credible figures, but at the same time, we have to recognize that the arbiter today is the military. The first deputy prime minister, you look at the speech he made yesterday in terms of calling on egyptians to come out and support their effort against terrorism which another way of talking about their efforts against the Muslim Brotherhood. Which will be we are in for what will be a long period of instability. The real question for us becomes what do we do now and it is not as simple an answer. There are some who say that we should cut off assistance. I am not one of those. It is not because i dont understand the rationale behind doing that or the arguments that are made, the notion that it was a coup, that we have laws, that we have its bulls. I take all of those very seriously. I take seriously the reality that the militarys actions ere supported by the ignificant percentage of the egyptian population. I take seriously the need for us to maintain influence in the current situation. If we were to cut off our assistance at this point, the effect of that would be that we would lose the link we have with the military, but wed also find a backlash among the egyptian public. The egyptian public would look at this as an american effort to dictate to them against the popular will. They would not take seriously our calls or statements that this is simply our law and hese are our principles. We would also find we would not have much influence in the rest of the region. Much is influenced by what is going on in syria. We would also see the saudis and others and will take the lace and assistance. Am concerned that the net effect would be that we dont have influence at a time when e should be able to affect hat will happen. I would not overstate the degree of our leverage but i think it is critical for us to be prepared to use the leverage that we have. A military clearly wants us to maintain the relationship for practical reasons. They also want it for symbolic reasons. If we cut off the assistance, it reinforces the narrative that them Muslim Brotherhood has put out there and it will make it difficult for the interim government and the military to get assistance. The key for me is to use our leverage, not to be reluctant to use our leverage, and to use it for a variety of purposes. We should be using it to ensure that the military really does go back to the barracks, to ensure that the interim government is empowered to make real decisions. Along those lines, they should be working with the imf. I think that there should be inclusiveness, there should be a transparent political process, i think there should be an international monitors who would be invited in to observe the election, to demonstrate that these will be free and fair. Even if it means that the timing should be, should reflect the need for preparation. As well, there should be the point you made about pardoning he 43 ngos that were arrested for violating egyptian laws. One of the most important things we could do and the signal that we would send about egypts posture with regards to building a Civil Society which is the key to having a level playing field. We should use our leverage for hose purposes and for allowing the Muslim Brotherhood to be included within an election. If they choose not to take part, that would be their decision. The bottom line is that without having delusions about how much leverage that we have, recognizing the limits, we should not take ourselves out of the game right now. We should not simply make a statement for the sake of making a statement. We should try to shape the direction that each of takes. We have a huge stake in how egypt evolves. Ultimately, we should exercise that leverage and understand the following. If in fact we find that we are not listened to, we can always cut off the assistance later. I dont object to the use of assistance or the idea that we should be prepared to cut it off if we find that there is not responsiveness to the point and the principles that we are pushing. If we were to do it at this point, unfortunately we would no longer have an effect on what happens in egypt. I dont think we should cut ourselves off. Thank you. Thank you, chairman menendez, Ranking Member corker, members of the committee. Thanks for the honor of testified about the crisis in egypt. As we look at the political turmoil and try to sort out u. S. Policy options, i would like to raise four points. The first point is that the july 3 removal of the Muslim Brotherhood president morsi by military to following enormous demonstrations should not the understood primarily as a triumph of secularism over islamism. Along with secularists and islamists in egypt, there is another major player which is the Egyptian State itself. This was left largely intact after the removal of former president mubarak. The military, which is the most powerful player within the state worked with the islamists nd against the secularists. Now, the military as well as other state institutions has been on the defensive. This new alignment may not be any more stable or lasting. It is also important to say the Current Alliance with the secular opposition is antibrotherhood. It is not antiislamist. The party supported the removal of morsi and has exerted its nfluence in the new transition by vetoing the cabinet choices. My second point is that we should really reserve judgment. This will put egypt on the path towards democracy or not. On the Positive Side of the ledger, the military is not exerting control directly but has put civilians out front. They put in place a cabinet. In addition to that, i would say another positive sign is hat the new transition roadmap puts the rewriting of the constitution before the holding of new parliamentary and president ial elections and this does correct a flaw in the first transition. The fact that they held this before the first time. They are dominating the process and is quitting others. On the negative side of the ledger, the way in which the democratic process was set aside on july 3 is troubling. He was a failure as a president and he behaved as though winning 52 gave him a mandate o rule as a pharaoh. The broad public opposition to his leadership was real. But it would have been much more powerful and salutary for egypts young democracy if he had been defeated in the early election or a referendum. There were some efforts made to persuade him to accept this, but they were very very brief. Then, very quickly, the military moved to remove him in this way. In a way, which sets a dangerous precedent. In addition to this, the new transition going on in egypt is in danger of repeating the single most important mistake of the first transition which was the failure to build a broad consensus and a tendency to exclude critical players. The secularists were saluted before, the brotherhood is excluded now. While they are speaking the language of inclusion, reconciliation, there actions are saying the option. Some of the Senior Leaders are detained without charge. There are rumors surfacing daily that they might be charged a very serious offenses such as treason or terrorism. There are lots of other signs that the intention is to exclude the brotherhood, perhaps out law it again. There is a real contradiction here between the talk about inclusion and the actions that the government is taking. My third point is despite the militarys argument that it took this action to remove morsi in order to spare the country a civil war, egypt seems to be headed into a time of greater instability and perhaps a cycle of instability. There has already been a troubling spike in violence. More than 160 People Killed and 1400 injured in the past couple of weeks. Daily clashes between proand antimorsi groups. Egypt is a much more heavily armed country than it was a couple of years ago. A spike in attacks against the military and Police Officers in the sinai. Egypt in the situation could see a return to the type of insurgency and domestic errorism it experienced in the 1990s when jihad these targeted government officials come christians, taurus, and liberals. If there is this kind of ongoing violence, it will not be possible to attract forests and investment back to egypt. There is money coming into the central bank from gulf donors nd so forth. The call yesterday by the deputy prime minister, the defense minister for massive demonstrations tomorrow. In order to provide him, he said a mandate to crack down on terrorism. Risks to escalate in the iolence further. In light of all of these many dangers, the United States should proceed with caution and be guided by some basic principles. Egypt can only be a reliable Security Partner for the u. S. And a reliable peace partner for israel if it is reasonably stable. It will only become stable once it develops a governing system that answers strong and persistent popular demand for responsiveness from accountability for my fairness, and respect for citizens rights. We will have to look at the signs in the coming weeks about whether there will be inclusive and this or whether this campaign of excluding the brotherhood will escalate. Will there be things like Media Freedom . Civil society freedom . It is very important, the case against 43 workers, including 16 americans who have been convicted and sentenced to prison for ngos working in egypt. The u. S. Should take the time to pause. Suspend military deliveries and assistance in accordance with our law and review our policy towards egypt and our assistance to egypt including special privileges that egypt receives such as cash flow financing for Foreign Military financing. The u. S. Should carry out its own internal review as well as a dialogue with egyptians the u. S. Should carry out its own internal review as well as a dialogue with egyptians inside and outside the Egyptian Government with the stated intention of resuming assistance as soon as the country is clearly back on a democratic path. In the meantime, we should do a review of the kind of military and economic assistance we offer egypt, which should not be kept on autopilot. Rather, it should be updated in order to provide the kind of assistance when it is rescinded that is truly suitable to promoting a stable, prosperous, democratic egypt that plays a vital and responsible role in the middle east. The u. S. Understandably is wary of damaging its longstanding relationship with the Egyptian Government but it should avoid pursuing a policy that appears to be cynical and unprincipled. We should not make the mistake of concluding that the u. S. No longer has any influence in egypt. In fact, the fact that egyptians pay such close attention to what our Officials Say and have been very critical of our policy means that we still have quite a lot of influence to exert. Thank you. Thank you, ambassador. Thank you very much for the invitation to be here today and to you, senator menendez, thank you for your service on behalf of all of us and for our nation. Having spent years living in egypt while serving our country in Foreign Service, i cannot tell you how excited i have been to see a people long under the yoke of authoritarianism and dictatorship striving to define who it is they are and what it is they want to be come a how they want to shape their society. This has been largely a revolution to define egypts identity and to establish a constitutional basis, a legal basis, for egypt to pursue its own form of democracy. We are looking for a Second Chance for this revolution. This revolution is likely to continue to go through phases as the egyptians wrestle with these pressing large issues on their agenda. I would offer three comments in addition to the written testimony that i submitted for the record. First of all, we need to understand that this is an ongoing dynamic process. We are in round three or four of what might be termed a heavyweight bout. There are forces in egypt that will continue to contest for political power. The egyptian public is as we know family divided, almost evenly divided among these various forces, including those who look to the military and Security Services for stability and law and order him including those who would like to see egypt to find by an islamist agenda. For those who were not that unhappy with the previous regime and since we want to return to some form of stability while enjoying some liberty and freedom. What we need to do is be patient. The revolution is only in his third year. As revolutions go, they normally take a long time to unfold. As we take a look at the last few weeks in egypt, we should instruct by the way in which the form of popular will was expressed both in the petition that added many millions of signatures as well as a demonstrations on june 30 and afterwards that persuaded the military to oust the former president. I know we are debating the question of whether this fits the definition of a coup according to our law and we should be debating that is the lawyers look at legal issues. We need to be mindful that millions of egyptians took to the streets from all classes, all sectors of society, not just cairo, but upper egypt as well, alexandra, and the delta to say they did not like what resident Mohamed Morsi was doing to the country. He fired judges and basically a certain powers and accrued powers only to himself. Having turned the other cheek and eye when it came to the massacres of Coptic Christians and others. The egyptian people basically said that we were ready to go to the streets to push Hosni Mubarak out of office and we were ready to go to the streets to push Mohamed Morsi out of office. We need to understand that the egyptu. S. Relationship that we have enjoyed now for more than three decades is changing. It is changing rather rapidly. The degree to which our assistance of the late 1970s, 80s, and 90s contributed to major changes in egypt. We helped to transform the Egyptian Military from a military alliance on the soviet doctrine, training, and weapons, to a military that is basically interoperable with hours. That military provides significant should egypt assistance to whatever we do in the middle east and beyond the middle east. We have created a partnership with egyptian agencies, intelligence, counterterrorism agencies, that has been of direct benefit to the u. S. In our own efforts to Counter Terrorism against us and against our interests. We have helped to change the egyptian economy from a statist economy that Hosni Mubarak inherited to an economy which is largely dominated by the private sector. There are still changes that need to be affected to make this economy providing its benefits fairly to all people. The investment we have made has paid off and it is investment that we need to consider as we think about what we want to do in the future. Our leverage with respect to egypt today is reduced and we need to understand that. The degree to which we do can help us see egypt through what some are calling a Second Chance in its own revolution. A Second Chance also for us to redefine this important strategic relationship. In that respect, i think it would be shortsighted to cut aid to the Egyptian Military at this time. In fact, as i say in my testimony, we should have considered doing this years ago. Egypts needs have largely been economic. To cut that aid off now would lose us the one partner that has proven to be stable and reliable in pursuit of our own strategic objectives. We should see egypt through this crisis. We should provide advice quietly. We tend to say too much publicly and we tend to react too much to daily events. Quiet advice may be the order of the day. Secondly, i think our own actions in this respect need to be tempered as well. Understanding that the egyptian people, a proud people, are going to defy their own future. We can help them do it but we cannot make demands of them and expect them to follow our demands simply because we are providing assistance. Thank you, mr. Chairman. Thank you all for your testimony. It is very insightful. As both diplomats and academics, we need more than five minutes to do, but it was all very worthwhile. Let me start off i am concerned, and i would like to hear your views. I think that Egyptian Society believes that the u. S. Sided with the brotherhood in a way that was against their will. I sense that from conversations, from Civil Society, from reading. If we were to cut off the aid now, would that not in that Civil Society, reinforce the view . That that is in fact the position of the u. S. What would you say to that . I think that that would be the effect. Whether the perception was correct or not is immaterial. It would be seen as being a statement that we were siding with the brotherhood against anything. I am not saying it is wide majority but i think it is the majority of the public. I think it would produce a backlash. It would not yield us any benefits. That is one of the reasons i dont favor it. Does anyone else want to comment . Senator menendez, youre quite correct that a lot of egyptians say the u. S. Sided with the brotherhood and before that they thought that we sided with the Supreme Council of the armed forces. Egyptians, of all kinds, whether they are secular or islamists, take a different view because they have looked at it as having no principle and being self serving. We stuck close to mubarak when he was in power, and then morsi he was in power. There has not been any principles motivating our policy. That is one issue. The other issue is how would egyptians react to a suspension of our aid. What the ambassador said is a danger, but this will depend on how the military will play this. They can drum up antiu. S. Sentiment if they like to. Or, they could choose to say, the u. S. Is suspending the assistance temporarily. That is their law, but we will see through a democratic transition. And so, it is not a problem. The assistance will be resumed because we fully intend to come through on the transition to democracy. First of all, to underscore what dr. Dunne said, the fact is that egyptian public perceives american policy only in line with its own views. When the Supreme Council of the armed forces was in power, we were seen to be holding them together. When the Muslim Brotherhood came to power, we were seen as supporting them. Now, we are supporting this interim government. It is trying to play to the sentiment of a public that is trying to sort out its own political views will be quite difficult. One of the problems in terms of this cut off question is, as you suggested, the implications. It is not just an implication defined by how the public would absorb this, or, even as dr. Dunn suggested, how the military might react, but whether or not it serves our interests. They are trying to calm the situation in the peninsula, which is extraordinarily dangerous, and which jihadists only from gaza but elsewhere, have fought to use that peninsula as a launching pad for attacks against ejections and israel. They are also closing tunnels used for smuggling between sinai and gaza for the first time in decades. Those tunnels are now in debt in jeopardy. The military continues to provide the support we have a needed to our personnel and our equipment where they have to be. As long as we have deployments use of egypt, we will require support and assistance from the military to do so. In the short term, it may be that the military could live with a temporary cut off. We would be cutting off our own noses to spite our face. It would not serve american interests to do that. It seems to me the question is, some leverage versus no leverage, at the end of the day. Personally, i believe using the leverage is an inappropriate use is an appropriate use. I also think about cutting off aid totally at this time, as some have suggested. At a time in which egypts economy is in a downward spiral. The potential effect of that, there may be others we will try to replace. It would mean we would have no influence. They would replace, to some degree, the resistance. It would still be a significant blow to the economy. Is that an additional concern . Secondly, some of the language in the appropriation bills that are beginning to move our citing three conditions for the disbursement of u. S. Military assistance to egypt. One is a political process, to is credible democratic electives and governments that protect the rights of religious minorities and women. Do you think those are the appropriate conditions and precisely what steps should the military and the interim government take to satisfactory check those . First, i do think it has the potential on the economy, not just in terms of the objective realities, but psychologically, it has some potential impact. I would worry less about the economy and more about our ability to affect the Egyptian Military exercise. I am worried about what the general said yesterday, that if we have little influence in the situation and they turn more to the gulf, understand one thing. For the wrong reasons, they want a very tough suppression of the Muslim Brotherhood. They see it as a mortal threat to them. If we will put the military close in the arms, any prospect of restraint goes out the window. If part of our aim is to try to enhance the prospect of egypt evolving over time in a much more favorable direction, if we take ourselves out of this equation right now, the prospect of restraint disappears. I agree with something dan said earlier. We are more likely to have an effect if we try to do it quietly. The more it appears in the eyes of egyptians, it seems we are telling him what to do, the more we trigger a nationalist backlash. It does not mean we take away the potential to say things quietly or publicly. They should understand what we say in private is not going to remain in private. They should understand they do lose the connection to us and they want it. If we do it in a way that they see as too heavyhanded, it will be used against us. There is a long history here of the United States saying certain things in public that trigger an impulse. I go back to the 1960s. He said we could go drink all the water from the mediterranean to the red sea. Do either one of you want . Yes. If i could comment on the economic crisis egypt is facing, you are exactly right. Our focus on military assistance has to do with the legislation and the definition of what happened. Egypt has been in economic crisis for two years since the revolution began, which is quite ironic, because if you look at the numbers before the revolution, egypt was on a significant upward return with respect to its Manufacturing Sector and its Tourism Sector and exchange earnings. They are now at a point where the gap in financing is approaching 3 million a month. In a situation where Foreign Exchange has been depleting rapidly, this represents a very significant crisis. As i suggested my written testimony, there may be a neat if egypt can reach an agreement with the International Monetary fund, to think about Emergency Assistance for egypt in order to get egypt over the economic pump hump. The conditionality that is written into legislation, as one who lived in egypt for seven years, and worked with egyptians for a very long time, when i hear of what when they hear about conditionality, even if the conditions support and complement what they want to do, theyre back gets up and they become very challenged by it. I hope we can talk about these as goals we and the egyptians share, goals for an inclusive political process in which the rights of women and minorities are protected. To the extent these become the equivalent of dictates from the United States, i think we will see pushback from the egyptians. That will present its own kind of problem for us. Thank you. May i comment on this question . You know, i would like to move to other members. But i appreciate, maybe at the end, if other members have had their opportunity. Let me, before i turn to the senator, recognize and welcome to the committee the senator of massachusetts. He has a long history in the house of representatives, where i had the privilege of serving him. He has cared about International Issues for some time and has been a leader in Climate Change and nuclear issues. We welcome him to the committee and look forward to his service with us. Senator. Thank you. Welcome, senator. Dr. Dunne, since we have this new spirit in the air here, if you want to take 30 seconds of my time to answer, go ahead. Thank you. Senator menendez said there is a question of some leverage versus no leverage. The United States has kept the military assistance going and has never used it as leverage. I think we are reaching the point where, really, there is not much credibility here, of having any leverage with that assistance. Ambassador ross said he would be in favor of using it at a future point if there were no responsiveness. My understanding is the administration reached out assertively to argue against a military coup. There was no responsiveness. We are already at that point. Thank you. Mr. Chairman, again, thank you for having this hearing. For what it is worth, i appreciate the testimony. I do think our agents in egypt right now should be an instrument of confidence. We make these issues about us and what we will do. Unfortunately, it is one of the great diseases we have here in washington. Really, this is about them and it is about an orderly transition and hopefully moving through the democratic process. I appreciate the comments relative to that and think that should be our role as we move forward. I agree much of our advice should be happening privately and not so much divisiveness occurring here. I very much appreciate the comments regarding that. Let me ask you this question. A transition plan put in place by the military, do we view that timeframe as something realistic . I made a reference to the testimony of monitors coming in. The international community, in terms of observing corrections, were to say more time were to prepare, i would favor that. I do agree with what michelle said. Preparing the constitution in advance of elections is the right thing. It was important to pull out a date for elections. I would like it to be guided by the right kind of preparation, above anything else. Do you think it unrealistic . I am a little worried it was not necessarily realistic. The sequence is more appropriate this time than last time. I would still like the ground to be prepared and i would like to create more potential for inclusion, which will be difficult to produce. I agree. I think the sequencing is good but we have the constitution rewritten by a Small Committee and looked at by 50 people appointed by the president. This is all supposed to happen in a couple of months. It is probably unrealistic. If egypt must have an opportunity where there is a broader buyin than last time, it will probably take longer and involved a lot more people. You made the comments of the Muslim Brotherhood was not included. We talked with many people in egypt that said they tried to include them in this process. Which is it . As i said, there are conflicting signals. People are saying the Muslim Brotherhood is included and invited to dialogue. Then they got their entire leadership in prison and so forth. Morsi also kept inviting the opposition to dialogue during his presidency. They knew it was not a real and sincere offer and they had no intention of acting on that. Unfortunately, this is something that is happening again and again in egypt. Are they included or are they not and what about the transition time . On the transition time, we cannot have it both ways. On the one hand, we are pushing very hard for the military to truly go back to the barracks, which we all favor, and i think the military would prefer to do that, as well. We cannot complain about a short transition. We will have to abide by the egyptian will in this case. It is fast, perhaps too fast, a process that they are expecting. The whole thing is supposed to happen in four or five months as the committees go through their work. If we want the military to truly go back to the barracks, we may have to buy into a process moving a little bit faster than we would advise. With respect to the Muslim Brotherhood, the system is not going to stabilize, unless some kind of dialogue is undertaken successfully. Do you think there has been an appropriate reach out to try to reach them in what has happened and have they responded or not . There has been effort so far to reach out. The pushback has been there. One of the preconditions on the Muslim Brotherhood side is the release of former president morsi. That may not happen soon. I would not doubt there is dialogue underway every day behind the scenes, even as they are confronting each other in the streets. The question is whether or not they will find a formula that would allow the Muslim Brotherhood to climb down from the tree and also allow the military to climb down. In this respect, we saw that the european union, with its diplomats, had come quite close to persuading the morsi government to undertake reforms. It may be this also diplomatic activities going on time the scenes. Before stepping back to the bigger picture, if i have time, we read this morning about what is happening at the border crossing. In gaza not long ago. To act as if there is actually Border Control is a joke. Anything you wanted was coming through the tunnels. It was very sophisticated. All the sudden, the military has moved to close that off, a huge change in activity there. Do we have any idea what is driving that abrupt, good change . What is driving that . It is being driven by a couple factors, revolving around the perception of what hamas is doing. There is an area built up in egypt that hamas has been very active with egypt itself. There is a perception also that the movement through the tunnels is a twoway movement and it therefore threatened egypt and you have jihadists in sinai and they are trying to affect the twoway traffic. Also, there is a back story emerging. A piece i saw this morning had suggested the military, some months ago, asked morsi for approval to undertake a major security operation in sinai. Morsis response, according to the article, was that he would not authorize actions by muslims against muslims. The military has been stymied in its effort to restore security in sinai. We are seeing the first effort by the military to do what it wanted to do over the past year. Thank you for your testimony and for being here. I will wait until the next round. Thank you so much, for this opportunity to listen to people who are experts on this. We need to hear you. So much of the situation is nuanced. Cutting through that nuance is sometimes difficult, if you are not familiar with it. I just would like to say, on the issue of whether aid to egypt gives us leverage, i am giving an opinion, which you do not have to share, i think all of our foreign aid, being done for the right reasons, it is still leverage. We would hope that people would appreciate the fact we care enough about them they might listen to us from our stand for about the best way to develop and the best way to reach for democracy. I would say i disagree with you. I think all of our foreign aid should give us leverage in the best of ways. I wonder if any of you would disagree with this, that he was a military dictator. Does anybody disagree with that at the panel . You all agree he was a military he was in power from 1981 to 2011. I really think those of us, all of us, who were stunned by the popular uprising, and if you call it the popular uprising, you are showing a bias. If you call it a coup, you are calling it another, but whatever you call it, it cannot be, when you think about the fact that here, the people for 30 years had a military dictatorship and no rights, they are struggling to figure it out. I want you to help me figure it out, bringing all your thoughts to the table and your biases, as we all have. We try not to, but we might. What i took from all of this is that it was an absolute fear on the part of lets say the majority of the people there. Slim or larger, that morsi was not living up to his commitment to be inclusive. That is why, dr. Dunne, when you explained this temporary government is including islamists, as well as secularists, i think that is what you said, isnt that what he promised was everyone would be brought in. My sense of it is absolute fear that egypt was moving in a direction that was very dangerous and if something was not done, they would lose their chance at true democracy. Am i conflating things . Am i being too simplistic . I would like to know, if you were to analyze why it happened, how would you explain why this happened after an election . I would start with dennis. I would say there are several reasons. I think there was a perception many of the people who voted for morsi felt betrayed. They had expected there would be inclusiveness and there was not. I think also, when all segments of society were involved, there was also looking at what was the near collapse of the egyptian economy. Life was getting dramatically worse on a daily basis and there was a perception this was literally a leadership that almost seemed indifferent. What you had was the perception of a leadership that was authoritarian, exclusive, intolerant, and incompetent. It basically produced what i think was a very broad alienation across different segments of society. There are multiple factors, but it added up to that. Dr. Dunne . Senator, first of all, i do agree with you about our aid being leveraged. A couple of times, the gulf aid has come up, as though, this could just replace our aid if we withdraw it. The military assistance the United States has extended, it means something beyond the dollars only. So it is a kind of relationship, the transfer of technology, training, exercises, and all these things. Money deposited in the central bank from donors cannot replace those things. There are ways in which i appreciate that. If you could now move to my question. Why do you think this happened . You call it a coup. Tell us why you think this happened. I agreed many egyptians felt if something was not done, they would lose their chance at democracy. My concern is about what it was that was done. The petition that was circulated, the enormous demonstrations, were asking for an early president ial election. That is not what they got. My concern is that what was done, the removal of morsi by coup and so forth, has damaging implications. We are seeing that in the streets of egypt right now. That is my concern. Do you have anything to add . Yes. Senator, if you look at the actual voting patterns that brought morsi to office, you would see that his support was much broader than just islamists. Therefore, as you suggested in your question, there was an expectation he was going to reach out beyond his own constituency. He certainly failed these additional voters who had decided, on him, as opposed to the formal general. I have one last question. My time is running out. I want to talk about syria. Have you talk about syria. We know morsi was very very strong, had a strong relationship with the rebel forces, at least a part of them. And they were very committed and took a lot of refugees. What do you think is going to happen now in terms of the relationship in that terribly tragic situation in syria . We will start with dennis. I do think it is, get it now from indigestion standpoint. Morsi was received in a sense supporting the call for jihadis to go to syria. I think the idea was they would go to syria and then come back. Recreate what happened in afghanistan and what happened when those people came back to the countries they had left. So i think that drove some of that. I think there is somewhat of a retrenchment right now in terms of egyptian attitudes. I do think what the chairman was saying is legitimate that we really do not want to see them stop being a place where people who are fleeing should be able to come. This is one of the issues you we should emphasize in dealing with egyptians. Egyptian policy toward syria is in flux. It is unclear. There is a tendency to do the opposite of whatever morsi did. At the same time, the fact that the new Egyptian Government is going to want to have a close relationship with saudi arabia and kuwait will mean that they will want to be within that arab consensus. I think we will see a revival of what has been a dormant egyptian diplomacy. Many of you know quite well. Egypt has always believed that it is a diplomatic leader in this region. There hasnt been a concerted effort to align policies. You might see the leadership role in defining what the arabs can do to affect change in syria. Senator rubio. Thank you for holding this hearing. Lets define what the goal is with egyptian policy. Two of the statements really doesnt good job of crystallizing the issue. Promotes a representative and inclusive and tolerant government that tackles and fulfills its into national obligations, including its peace treaty with israel. It will become stable once it has a system that has responsiveness and accountability and respect for citizens rights. I thought that was well stated. We are trying to figure out what u. S. Policy can move egypt in this direction . The rights of everyone should be respected. I will use an example including the 10 that are christians. The postmorsi Security Apparatus which are the folks who are in charge have not performed their role and failed to intervene and protect citizens, meaning christians and the property, despite prior knowledge. Amnesty International Reports on july 5, there was an attack to kill four questions and injured four more as a mob attacked their homes and businesses the tree branches and hammers while security stood by and watched. The situation has gotten so bad that they have for three straight weeks canceled his weekly prayer for fear that the large gathering of christians would be an easy target for attackers. My first question is, in your opinion as attacks are happening and we are gaining reports not doing anything about it, is this an unwillingness in the part to do anything about it . Is it their inability because theyre not properly trained and equipped to do anything about it . Why are we hearing these reports they are not doing anything . There are instances of it happening after mubarak. Is it because they cant or they wont . I have a suspicion it is a little bit of both. I think there is a restaurant of capability and a question of priority. I think theres a question of which battles they want to fight. All of these things are coming into play right now. This is one of those areas that is a concern for us where i would like us to be able to retain some influence to try to affect their behavior. Go ahead. Senator rubio, this has been a long history in egypt of attacks on christians and so forth. There has been a tendency to sweep them under the rug. To try to quiet down the communities after these things happen and to not really bring people to justice. This was unfortunately during mubarak and during the time of morsi and now. What is the Common Thread . Unreformed Security Sector. The Security Sector that does not a good rule of law seriously at all basically makes its decisions on a political basis. I will tell you what it means beyond the morals aspect. Our Foreign Policy our foreign aid programs should further our National Interest. It is in our National Interest that egypt should be stable. It cannot be stable if 10 feels they are not represented and unsafe it is pretty apparatus does not protect them. With that in mind come insisting on the should be a critical part of moving forward in regards to our assistance. It is not the need for more maybe you can elaborate more on this. Until this issue is resolved, until 10 of the population, which has a long historical presence in egypt and a significant part of Egyptian Society, that other groups feel like they can be safe, you will not have a safe and stable state that we desperately want not just for the security region they should be geared toward giving them the capacity and conditions taking significant steps to ensure that issues undermine the stability are addressed. Senator, i agree fully. Issues that you enumerated in your opening remarks are critical interest of the United States. There are additional critical interests that also have to be taken into account. The intelligence relationship and the military relationship on their counterterrorism relationship and egypts peace treaty with israel. That is where difficulty comes. We have tried for many years and i spent many hours with president mubarak arguing about the need to find ways to deal with these sectarian issues. Some had to do at local problems and others with larger historical problems. The reality was that the regime and the current regime and the previous regime have not done enough in this regard. Our dialogue in egypt has to include that. Im concerned about the conditionality and conditioning our aid on an important issue and only one issue. I apologize. My time is limited. I can only focus on certain aspects. Im sure members will focus on others. The agreement with israel is important. Cooperation is important as far as conditionality as all. Im saying one of the conditions that should the in place should include taking measurable steps to protect religious minorities, in particular, christians. Im worried a lot of our aid is geared toward military capacity that, quite frankly, they do not i am not sure that egypt is in threat of being invaded by any of their neighbors. By doing need to continue to send the fighter jets instead of the Capacity Building they could use so they do not have to stand by and watch christians be beat up with hammers and metal bars or anybody for that matter . Im not saying that is the only condition. It is a significant one. Thank you. Thank you for this hearing. I think it is important that our committee be engaged as the circumstances are unfolding in egypt. The senator from maryland, we have a personal involvement here. A 21yearold College Student from chevy chase, maryland went to egypt to teach english in alexandria. An egyptian youth was killed during a protest. We have felt it personally in our state. Ambassador ross, you got my attention. This could test our patience as we continue to observe changes in egypt. I want to talk about our policies in egypt as to how it affects the region. We have talked about u. S. Aid and the point of our influence in bringing about changes within egypt. Im concerned about the impact it has on the region. The u. S. Aid to egypt was basically part of an agreement reached between israel and egypt. The piece agreement between israel and jordan, circumstances in syria have raised questions about jordan. We have seen the on and off again negotiations with the israelis and palestinians. It has been little hope of progress being made in that direction. Iran has been off the front pages, but that is an area of major concern of stability in the middle east. I would like to get your assessment as to how our involvement in egypt as it relates generally it could affect the region if we were to jeopardize the flow of funds, would it weaken the commitment or the ability to argue for the adherence to the Peace Agreement with israel . Would that be more in jeopardy or not . How does it affect the region . It is easy to say that the Egyptian Military has its own interest and should have its own interest and preserving the Peace Agreement with israel. On one level it is true. We should not underestimate the kind of impulse it would create among the military to demonstrate the cost to us in having done that. I worry about what implications would be for that treaty. I worry what implications would be for behavior. These still reflect what egypt own interest should dictate. I think if you look at the potential consequences anything that those are adverse, you have to weigh whether you think it is worth taking that kind of stuff. I do not think it is worth taking that kind of step at this point. It reduces our influence to the point where i think we will regret that. I do not want to put us in that position. I think it has a potential relationship towards what is going on. Egypt and maybe elsewhere in the region if it becomes a regional focal point for jihadists, it could radiate outward. It does have large consequences. I have listened carefully to your point. The popular sentiment in egypt has never been proisrael. If the u. S. Were to take steps that would challenge egyptians from the point of view of their independence, doesnt that at a greater risk the relationship between israel and egypt . Senator, the Egyptian Military and the rest of the egyptian leadership make these decisions about israel and the peace treaty and so forth based on their own calculations. Theyre talking about the issues of the tunnels and how the Egyptian Military are upset about things they think hamas is doing inside of egypt. Therefore they are cutting the tunnels to punish. Isnt closing the tunnel something the u. S. Has been asking them to do for a long time . I do not challenge that, particularly the military will make assessments based upon their own interest. It is understandable. My point is a popular sentiment in egypt. The popular sentiment within egypt regarding israel, the Positive Side of this is that egyptians have been preoccupied with their own affairs that we have seen a bit less of the antiisrael grandstanding that we have seen in egypt quite a bit over the years. I think that is largely reactive to things that happen. The challenge is that the u. S. The egyptians perceived israel as being a close friend. The u. S. Is interested in israel. Conditioning aid or suspending aid isnt it logical that the risk could be the relationship between israel and the United States . Israel and egypt i do not expect egypt to take any actual aggressive action against israel because of this. In terms of the popular sentiment, it will depend on how the Egyptian Military would decide to play this. If there was a suspension and the Egyptian Military and there was a hope we would resume this aid as soon as we saw 15 seconds. Two brief comments. In large policy terms the constancy of the u. S. Egyptian relationship is critically important to our interest elsewhere in the region. It will impact what we do elsewhere. Number two, it is critically important that we support egypt as a cornerstone of that israeli and egyptian peace treaty. There is a story suggesting israel has been lobbying our administration not to cut aid to egypt as israel understands that would be against its interest with respect to the peace treaty. Thank you. Senator johnson. Thank you for holding the hearing and for your thoughts and testimony. Ive been like to understand a little bit more about the profile the population. It is not necessarily antiislam is. Can you explain that comment . I said that because i think there is a danger of seeing egypt in a way that we would like to see secularism as opposed to islamism. We will continue to see islamist language in the constitution and all of that. In terms of affiliation with the population, probably the best thing to do is to look at the several sets of elections that have been held in egypt and where the voting has gone. In the past, boating has indicated that there is somewhere between 4070 of the population that will tend to vote islamic. They varies from election to election. That might go down with the political fortunes of the Muslim Brotherhood falling. Islamists continue to be a part of the political spectrum. Can you describe that division . We saw the election when morsi was elected. He won with 51 point something percent. That means that 49 point something percent was on the other side. There are polarizing candidates. You have been islamist candidate and a candidate that is associated with the mubarak regime of the other. Those who stood in the first round of the election who might be called more centrist have not made the cut. You do not have a good test case to know how election would play itself out. Can you give me some sort of feel of how the population is leaning towards . There is a Broad National support for the Egyptian Military. It does not necessarily translate into electoral support unless they put forward a candidate which they are unlikely to do. Procivility then. We assume that there is 35 40 of the population that would vote islamist for the brotherhood or the more fundamentalist party. You have that kind of a breakdown. There is a Large Population that is undefined and is able to bring people out of the streets to indicate what they do not want, but they have not told us their political philosophy. These are folks who brought about the many million person protesting. They have broken down into being socialist and liberal and all kinds of strange in between. There is called the National Salvation front. It is kind of like an umbrella for these groups, not yet representative of alternative holocene. In terms of the economy, how much of the economy is driven by tourism . What percentage . In the good days. In the good days, tourism and expatriate workers represented upwards of 7080 of their Foreign Exchange income. A huge amount of egyptian it gets economy would be for sure. When i arrived as ambassador, it was after a major terrorist attack. There was no tourism. There were suffering at that point. The rational thing for the population would be pro stability. Yes. Let me talk about foreign aid. It is complex and incredibly unpopular in the u. S. We have to be quiet and some of our feelings with egypt, but at the same time, if we are to continue foreign aid, we have to be public about conditions and attaching some control. We need to maintain the type of influence most of us would like to be can provide that stability. Dialogue takes place all the time. Presumably it would lead to some understanding as to why conditionality or a set of goals are attached. Pronouncements that come out in the midst of the liberation tends to be magnified when they are reported in egypt. It does not give our Administration Representatives or even congressional delegations a chance to have these quiet conversations. Im sure all of you have visited egypt and has had time to have quite sessions. They can work sometimes rather than a pronouncement coming out of this state department spokesperson. When did that obligation it is not an obligation per se. It is funded by congress. It was an undertaking to support the peace treaty back in 1979. It has been renewed ever since to the tune of up words 70 billion of american assistance both economic and military. There is no longterm commitment that has been written into legislation. Thank you. Thank you, mr. Chairman. Thank you to the panelists for being here today. As we observe how egypt goes forward, what are the risk to the transition if the Muslim Brotherhood is totally excluded and any future coalition that forms to run the government . Who would like to address that . I think the key point to understand is that they represent an important social force within egypt. If you exclude what is an important social force in egypt, this is basically a prescription for trouble. They will express themselves somewhat. But we have right now is a reaction to the ouster of president morsi. The question is whether there can be some vehicle to bring those who are part of the Muslim Brotherhood back into the political process. They should not be excluded. If they choose to take themselves out, that is one thing, but they should not be excluded. It will not be easy to bring them back in. It will be difficult. I do not assume that will remain the case forever. Not only are they a social force, but they have their own interest in turn influence what will happen in egypt. To what extent does it seem like there is some understanding or willingness . Do we think that is something that the military, the current civilian folks in charge are willing to support . I will say that the words we are hearing are the right words. The question is whether the behavior reflects the words. Senator, egypt went through a period where there was a constitution passed and laws and