December 7th as the strategic surprise with the expansion of influence even at the expense of the of major power war but the nationalistic and division is china has a larger sphere of influence. The president s is looking to restore to greatness and preserve the Chinese Communist party in addition to a comprehensive reforms challenging existing global rules to push back a preponderant of power. To invest in paramilitary modernization that seeks to establish control with the east and South China Sea. The of whether chinas trajectory with aid to war although experts disagree but with the potential impact to go back on u. S. Forces over 74 years ago many cited between the United States and japan was inevitable. Said to steer down the crucial and also to inform a broader audience. Is the you understand as the micro the sewage and then to tell us more and what that means for the world spirit he by air appreciate the american and also to stake you for this. And we were stranded out beyond the beltway in the torrential and got there two hours late he let us go into office and they redecorated. [laughter] but its he did better than his hospitality. But today is due to talk about an issue that i think is one of the most precious pressing issues of our time to be front and center in the 2016 president ial of a and to put and i discuss these fiends whether survey eric history bears the first three the anniversary of the pearl harbor attack so with that the of the book itself and chinas rise of the historical parallels in Imperial Japan in the 30s and 40s and to show you one key difference. That may be the difference but they make the biggest zero fed reduces to produce. But one of the most important thing is to go out and talk to the expert is preparation to be close to the top experts said in the world but what is interesting about the bucket was such a Broad Spectrum of opinion. And those of the people that im amazed at how willing they are able to do this. With the 70 hours of footage but the wisdom to paint the course of my own alternately but it is an interesting experience. And with serious policy lot and an analyst, when i tried to use due do with the brighter around the world. I have written it but moore of the of your best bet. But today i think it is valuable outside of your expertise to convince them whether it is congress but to think about the problem away that is accessible. And one that is straight out of the international relations. Sova what is the intentions . And there is those intentions looking at the capability question. We dont and aft to and we have some serious issues but also looking at the strategy that china is adopting as what it says says the war and ahead that is very much with japan was all about. So we get through the strategys and then the i. R. A. And to go through the flashpoints South China Sea or north korea or taiwan but the most important part of the whole effort is to cut out how do you prevent. No question about that. As the british to the boards and putin does the same thing today using coercion that still has a lot to this day through that humiliation the germans and french were brutal the u. S. Was right there her. In that interview the attitude was never again. Sosa aid day new need to do that. And then from the fine work with the red star over the pacific basically is a look at china is power through the islands of the father of the American Navy and the counterpart in china through basically saw early on saw the need for a globalized navy. And in order for a global power to prosper you should have some command and control. No question they would build their navy from those purposes and that is okay. But the problem comes about but it is one thing to build the offensive weapons it is another the dent in lies the tale. With those imperial of japan. It is fascinating. Ended is day ps that they seem to take territory from their neighbors there isnt a lot of difference between Imperial Japan and china is a vision. They control tie one and on the eve of pearl harbor to drive the of british ad and singapore out of the philippines. So if you look at china it puzzles me why americans think theyre not upset. To talk bohol preposterous but they claim from the east china sea. And even claims the continental shelf. And theres no question has the intention from its neighbors. But then the other parallel is that in order to do that. To share that fear as it was the barrier he has the barrier to china today. Into a set up a perimeter to keep us out it it just wants to push us out so you can see the parallel. No question on the intention question the chinese have told us so go to capabilities there is a hubris here in the beltway and end nobody can mess with us. Let me count the ways. My interview with him talkedabout cut china has the most aversive theres so they have than Running Water all the way down because we dont know how to go back up but they started missile. That is the comparatively vintage. Pleven he resigned from their. But then you move funds from their. Path i had an interesting talk about mine warfare. That is the grandfathers lie. En to walk me through how all of a lion on the bottom in tour then with this every your Aircraft Carrier to use a new house and hour through the water. Is our serious in to 10 but may be you know, the in english first is the french but then the oilers had to produce them in their own shipyard. There are submarines are in now. Now they try to knock out the weather satellites that but to develop all those capabilities is because they induced demand but it is period destabilizing. If we dont know if youre launching Nuclear Missiles but the chinese dont think like that. China sees that as another front and lastly there is cyberwarfare which with the pentagon the f22 the f35 the Management System you name it and go down the list and that gets back to the hubris of the United States of superiority of their dealing a weapon systems with so there is the three warfares he was kind enough to have me out at his house and the medias psychological and legal better growing very rapidly. So if china never approaches us in terms of technology with asymmetric warfare in with 10 million that is able to hit the Aircraft Carrier and we can build many more but talk about that point that parallel that was a the predecessor essentials a. The japanese new day had to out range the opponents bad intentions and strong capabilities said is aimed to push out. Or one of the fascinating things but this is very relevant the ada is said to put up by hard shield to keep this out but then we have the white house and then with some of flashpoints, start with north korea. And they provide 40 percent of the fuel but they dont do that. But to be a represents most the this is of destruction we have had with that bushs administration was still sitting back then. So if in 2003 so what did number three ahead to . A fatah of the civilian reactor the centrifuge of that with that material to places we can no longer find. That is the day they became a nuclear power. But to get to where they are they will get further but one of the most chilling interviews was john hopkins university. They would get pretty good at seattle. And did is say trigger point that it is 1. Three square miles of territory but it is on the flank of taiwans. To turn that into the ability for japan. We already has seen what happened in 2012 with china and nationalism that is a flashpoint. That is the claim that began in 1947 to 80 percent of the shot glass South China Sea the warships there now as we speak which china tries to turn it into a artificial territory. Then you have the issue of taiwans china calls it a renegade province and islands were there really depressed and afraid. They see china slowly like a price on circling that may no longer have the resolve. I interviewed one professor he proposed a grand bargain for peace everywhere else. And the fact and in the 50s. Is there is a lot of reasons not just about the morality your the efforts but they said it best if youd give that away and it was bottled up. In china claims it devastates of india. Lead when push comes to shove by donau but the Biggest Issue is the actual water if you go to the plateau the entire Southeast Asia their building dams is doing all sorts of things you have indiana and china constraints those are the flash points. Here is where i will finish up. But those of the ones were depending on now. In to talk about how eloquent and why we should not do that with the most vibrant area of the world 70 of Economic Growth although Michael Greene points out correctly the Pacific Ocean is not a barrier. There is the reason why we have bases there with a continental Ballistic Missile those that help us track and beecher that threat. So the isolationism will be very attractive because sheriff smith said you have to be there. That Economic Engagement argument is simply go back to 1914 to see that same rhetoric between kaiser germany and france and all that. And for those of you who know him but he had a great line to underestimate the people to do stupid stuff. But there is a more subtle argument that has to do with the type of trade if you have a country like china dependent on Natural Resources that increases the prospect one of the reasons the jury went to war in a wooded embargo the food then france try to take the iron ore. Now those Nuclear Deterrence this is the artist to think about if you school beyond the stability and stability paradox if you have stability at the Nuclear Level with that second strike reaches have to get one of those places and that deters us should day ago went to taiwans and both make a compelling argument that that Nuclear Strike capability that it opens the door for conventional war in asia. That is something that should give you pause so the last thing is what do we do . The interesting fame is the unifying thought comes from the chinese themselves is shown to me by two people who cannot have two more different outlooks. Intels barry does a lot of work for the pentagon. They brought up the notion of comprehensive National Power. That if youre going to deter china and maintain a presence this country has to have comprehensive National Power it is unjust about building weapons. Sitting here from u. S. China commission but the idea that it all starts of the Strong Economy you have to have a Strong Economy to generate the growth and wage increase to afford your military hardware in defense what kills us now with our economy is the unfair trade practice. Over the 50 years we lost 70,000 taxes. We are growing at 2 instead of 3. 5 . If we were we would not have any of this conversation. That is life on easy street. Not just dealing with the economics that creates the innovation really that is so critical and you need a Business Climate you cannot have a tax system that drives the companys offshore and in to make decisions in realtime and we dont have that now. We have a system in the sense we had elections but were not making any of those tough decisions to be dominated by big money and by the ideological split in the system that gave to congress this is why this president ial election is so important if we dont deal with china as the top issue in dont understand the need so the left that focuses on trade and jobs or military hardware real not have a meeting of the mind. So i would urge you with the American People this is the dialogue added is technological flashpoints and solutions. So then i will turn back to patrick. [applause] the book is full load chapters even though it in 30 minutes or less western to the professor of strategy from Asia Pacific Studies from Newport Island with that maritime studies institute. Thanks for having me here. Excellent book. What we are about to do is to use day jumping off point to make my own observation and interactions. This is the issue of what it is about. That capability is in the interaction between china and United States so with regard to the capabilities it cover is of great deal that has sections to survey all those capabilities but what it underscores that is occurring in chinas military it is befuddled and surprised and then the chinese claim that is perforated in september. And with those of others in to how by a it is all about operational flexibility. And then to a hit glom. With the airfield thank commandandcontrol indeed it is capable to get moving targets with other large surface combatants so it is also of a dual capable this cassette that Nuclear Stability question to use multiple types of conventional warheads and finally that missile can launch it doesnt have to be underprepared site in the advance depending on the operational circumstances but the highlight is an odious china in joining a growing arsenal, i am not saying rivet the attention as it will be the highlight the is an additional tool in the toolbox. I want to spend most of my time of a great power war between china and the United States and im not making a judgment but to highlight what we should be you about with tour more living forces. Each has an agency of its own that they will do their best to outmaneuver the adversary so i could highlight the interaction rethink about extend the perimeter as far as possible even in beijing there recognized china is vulnerable especially with the coastline where they Economic Centers are located and to extend that perimeter to keep the United States at arms length that prevents them from getting in range. And that suggests into the heart of the western pacific as well as the indian ocean but they need to fight effectively as we saw you can imagine that goes out to the Second Island chain. At the same time and passed to develop those capabilities to launch attacks with enemy firepower. That is the competition that disenroll of sanctuaries. It is increasingly clear with the basis of allied so real but what we are recognizing as to lose their value as a sanctuary. At the same time we are confronted with the political dilemma if this is off limits or not. To deprive the United States depending on those strategic circumstances. But that is what was identified in the books here is of mutual quest all sides this is understandable because of of bloody protracted war but i do agree with his judgment budget is of possibility that the historical record but for example, in the stages of of conflict with firepower on both sides. They are searching for their quick defenses to stun each other. And then to impose ones rule of the other. To escalate things with intellectual energy. And it is tragic and what does it mean for the United States . That you need to think asymmetrically. To make sure the chinese cannot repair without Research Says dedicated. Something working on for quite a few years. And to turn the tables on china that day would need for their strategic objectives but those is as i see it that many are high quality friends from what they dont have and they dont have reliable allies for when things go south here is another intangible. In to defend access to the Global Economy is very powerful idea by contrast to make excessive maritime should pay difference to the prerogative. It is too many of chinas smaller neighbors. But those symmetries that they can play up. With the permit conditions that is why the United States needs to maintain your wife in the lead. Thank you very much. Distinguished career includes policy achievements they cute pet tricks and things for having me. Patrick is an excellent book. The book crouching tiger clarifies of the current military trade and Strategic Policy and that perception of the relations with the United States. What is at stake in the u. S. China relationship on this side of the pont american jobs and businesses in friendships with japan and korea and indonesia with the South China Sea. And with that rule of law in a play. With a wide range of policy questions. Said geopolitical and limitations and it is how we might manage this relationship going forward. To exercise accommodation and it turns out a mile diplomacy will not like china like us. With cybertheft to tell a sad story in december 2015 census started to collect trade data in the early 70s. In october with the trade balance and dash 32. 9 billion. With the domestic nationalism to protect values the cutting edge and navarro has identified the three warfares so allow me to expand. It combines psychological and react and bogus lot to form is threedimensional fighting process. But to acquire it territory in project national will the three warfares are by other means. And extending back and fighting 2,000 years ago but when china looks out what does this the . The United States it is used to counter projections with the military strategy in the South China Sea. Of point well developed in peters book. And tinker its trustees strategic position and by setting the terms of putting it is the mechanism to structure the Campaign Environment with the vintage. The objective is to alter regional expectations and preferences of raising the legitimacy and the objective test includes a confrontation before it begins and and we have reached so far and a number of others. It plays the crucial role that they can press ahead to alter the sack on the ground and over the past two years of land Reformation Program dredges the seabed and then builds artificial features and it it gives greater control over the island and has created to thousand acres by the chinese occupied and they have invested heavily in infrastructure with four out of five that it controls. Trying to build a runway designed to enhance the sovereignty claims to set the terms of access would macy with this will connect with hybrid with the defenses and the strengthening of assets into boundary control with the engagement if necessary. The use of though lot is crucial to support the transformation of facts on the ground it manipulates legal conventions like the 1982 convention of which it is of a signatory nation with the freedom of navigation by arguing it has a right to regulate Foreign Military activities in the Economic Zone that is created by the artificial landmass. Article 89 of the treaty no state could have any part of the high seas to its sovereignty. Furthermore with artificial islands may not be accepted to the sovereignty with freedom of navigation. Far more at play is the ownership of the reef and the islands challenging the rule of law these claims and seizures up and the regional order even the treaty commitments and french ships that play. It does not end there. With the appearance of progress. And then when it is far from closed. The of the concerted response in if we are to proceed with that. With a forceful legal action with venues and force china to defend its claims end Public Diplomacy programs. To be published at home and abroad. It is woefully lacking. With the Public Diplomacy program that shows the values it is hard to know ahead with the South China Sea the tactics are needed for commentary to capture the chinese narrative with the continuous publication such as the asia maritime and transparency. In then to read to rise from the South China Sea that must be tested continuously. With a the of public affirmation as was the case with a renewed commitment with the security treaty in the aftermath of the behavior. Ms proceed with targeted investment to decrease the impact of chinas inducements and then have arrangements with the dpp. Finally so exercises in this to traded boost the confidence in the region. The issue is only one of many nuggets but if you talk about offshore control it if there is economic independence to prevent war. A Remarkable Book integrate read. [applause] we have a room full of experts. But dealing with the middle east turmoil no doubt. So that approach to manage chinas low, in context with the Global Policy is and were hoping to explain their own approaches but lets not take up the time now to do that lets talk to the experts around the we are with a question or comment. So wonderful presentation in the videos are terrific. I can try to understand to ascertain where china is in the sea merchants. But yesterday wrote, and article that passed whether not if would day launched a Pearl Harbor Strike in america . It seems to meet you have learned something maybe you brought it to the class have open in your eyes . I dont know but it implies you are far along to think we are in serious trouble so what was it that got you to that point . It is a great question. Also from the time a commission on what terminology has been a great inspiration. By tried to write a book into a film bipartisan in nature across the ideological spectrum that i ate offer and allow them to draw their own conclusion and how we may be able to avoid that. That is the objective landscaper girl that there. If that is our goal is territorial. I have more than convinced that will lead into a point if it is a this every bit as powerful as the u. S. Then those strategies will level the Playing Field and then just going over to the flash points. For china to claim 80 percent of the South China Sea then build forces there, we did not even get into the part of of paramilitary and the Fishing Vessels out there imposing there will on other people. The crisis is a long time in the making i am totally convinced there could be peace with china but ive also totally convinced if we let the events unfold as there are there will be conflict. So has an academic looking at the chessboard and then to turn over the king. My question is on economic leverage. You said we need to do some intervention . There were a few ideas with those diplomacy programs but within the service and growing trade deficit now that the allies have forget it is an avid transatlantic it isnt how we use that leverage that we have . That is a great question. And to propose a policy of balanced trade rather than the 300 billion deficit with china with jobs and are at productive capacity but i would need to bring that back here. But i think i a. M. An economist so why am i looking at military . Once you understand the relationship between a Strong Economy, it is easy i want to put him on the spot because for the shortest Interview Time that were going to go with the inability to defend ourself. In that trade deficit that rayleighs results also in a loss of jobs. But the publicist strategy is a dominant Economic Force in the world. And to do that they feel they have to weaken us economically because that is what they believe systematically to extract the manufacturing jobs over to a china and steal our technology. Deal tonight game plan for the chinese is they see the United States to supply them with Raw Materials and to be the consumer of their products especially hightech in by dominating as economically they can control us. But there were two professors the road this great article and a Harvard Business review. If they say we will be a great innovators but when you are weakening of manufacturing with your capabilities that your ability to innovate fits within the industrial commons is that who will make this stuff . The chinese have a policy and to transfer our technologies to do well in the Chinese Market you have to be a friend of china with those technological transfers was not the way it is supposed to work with the way it is working here. And to focus so solely on shareholder value and though shortterm. We have no strategy in this country to deal with that problem widely have a tax system you are producing jobs and technology hear we should get a low tax rate if you want to make your money to china he is but many of you in this regard military. And i talked to folks if you are military did not want to hear about the economics so what i say to all of you that is why i am opening hoping somebody will evert as an eloquent voice. We have to break them down we dont have time to wait but with that agility is a huge challenge that the questions and comments. You talked about the stability paradox that would result in instability but the etf of followthrough with the idea u. S. Soldier relationship was based on stability but is a Mutual Insurance that you were both in deterred been beneath that level you can see if they have a greater stake. That isnt a new problem but we solved that during the cold war. But on the second point we lost the facts this certainly will not work on these today. But it is a view on china but it isnt like a battle type of approach spirit but the third half in and it involves that we are also obviously changing an hour of program which but when i talk to ashley for example, he said what you do go back that there could be its is a vote instability senate but that long list so to mix the conventional with the nuclear. So think abetted from chinas prospective. In in in your plate is valid are you concerned about public but we need to be thinking about developing programming to be provided to local networks so is it is moving constantly in bangkok and manila to be working together with the bbc is a river that would like to see is develop programming to unfolding events to put our spin on these as they unfold put our values for ruth and concerns you said earlier one of our credit strengths is we project which is very different from china and secretary of defense and i just came back from vietnam in japan and those narratives are out there but the question but here is a question but remember what eisenhower did in the 50s. He actually use that organization to project an entire concept as a way to block from Southeast Asia. We have done that before but not now. I enjoyed that. But what we take for granted in their not quite as aware. By claiming dash standing aside looking at the state department i feel they already saw through the things that were discussed. , theyre very smart people that is only chasing chinese many i dont quite understand your suggestion in that regard. To become more pro west with that emphasis is on a comprehensive National Power i understand youre saying is certainly as well as i do to lay this out there. You dont have the resources that you need. They you may greet agreed with the existence level. Going to this in 35 minutes and but this series deals with what we need to do. But the russian power ended is applying to china. And then wondering if we will be there. But through that history is our technology. Bin since 2008 that is a failure of the u. S. Government. That the chinese believe the next war and to proceed the United States and relative decline. To see that activity in the east. Your book is already sparking the debate. I have a question about sourcing so those that really know what they are talking about . We live then hear anything from them so how do data bases from other parts of the system that say things that are much more radical one of the duties of writing the books said to say you have credit in college they will nuke us the policy is clear but it. However in the ongoing debate but if you read widely idi if the to make commonsense judgment in if the institutional these are very transparent have the effect of cabinet nobody wants to go from professional military officer. But not to be a staff officer or somebody in an operational position. Or to be diligent of the origins. Have you still have complex . Is military officers into will this that they openly have spoken about and if you think the open source literature put it to a knowledge there are all kinds of stuff up there you can dig into that provides interesting insights. I appreciate your interesting comments. Was with its to the pro shop and. With a basic kick in the teeth and put the motion is that what he did she knew larry are more cautious and with vietnams. Eight think that is good. But i think i made a miscalculation. Up until that time it was highly capability by the time of peaceful. Networks with that sort of power diplomacy for some reason i seem to think into shape chance to but what we do in the west to make things happen and if that point which really was not there. So that is one reason. With the special interest and though the chinese work but also through the special interest that gets the same results of more aggression in the South China Sea and so on. I am sorry i will answer elsewhere. By china. You one to one life in talking about vietnams and how they want us back. Bid from the chinese didnt india but we have more friends than wait. [laughter] is a great place to start. I gave you clues today and the sympathetic but just to add to that point in thin tube go to another region is important point. We havent mentioned are the two other points better dash. Chinas gdp is dropping bid is scheduled to drop more. It is projecting in the three and 4 range of 2020 with the World Bank Projections that seems to be what were coming ask but they started to use populations. The whole idea of a comprehensive National Power, china had that 200 years never taken apart. By american and what i see is happening with the China Commission which is bipartisan never publicans and democrats and fiber its because when we give in to north in since he do the ideal but obviously theyll have a job to buy them. This is the nervous on the economy. Each year to push out that is to get to give there. I can say being that 360 fame deficit how did we trade with that company . Issing the cake. But what interesting question for these silos . But heres a question what if we are able to achieve balanced trade with the 60 billion deficit . That means they will not get that capital with 4 trillion of reserves. What is the best estimate for the military systems . They cannot do everything. Also a visiting fellow that is with us. Thank you very much. Wonderful comments. I have a question but with the nature. Im not an expert by any means as the organization of the pla are the military dimensions but some broad observations, they just our relatively economist from the Chinese Government you can see this room anecdotes from the mystery of Foreign Affairs in the era has an upper hand with the internal policy debates over china. And the military dimension is to what extent about the military plans the the chinese are thinking about because i have had access to some operational plans better oriented and destabilizing that makes it potentially disastrous from a political perspective that the rhine is what answers to i have a grip . That is a more autonomous constitution. In times of crisis what will leadership say . Do they have the authority and knowledge you said this is day terrible plan. Or are they pressured to say yes . So that is my concern but it is exactly as mentioned. If there is a familiar way to get into trouble but with space on the table these are cyberliterally could be ending a trust and i wonder what side of the stability curve do you think were on . Was he figured out before . E their profound instability or we have some accommodation. I am an optimist and a jeffersonian. All i am trying to do here is identify the problem and possible solutions for the American People. Said thank for what needs to be done. Heard. Thanks for coming. [applause] [inaudible conversations] as the neck their son get off the track one of the most popular songs became the anthem of the antislavery movement