It is my great pleasure vertu introduce todays speaker David Phillips for director of the Columbia Institute of humanrights to talk about his new book to talk about the erdogan dictatorship who has long experienced through three president s in the state department from United Nations office in with his own scholarship he has written numerous topics on the turkish armenians reconciliation and o course, years of practice as well as for wall diplomacy. But today i will engage in discussion with parts of the book the and open that up to questions from the audience. So tell us david about what inspired you to write this and why the pressing need now concert with your book an uncertain ally . Guest i always get a message from someone in turkey lamenting their circumstances they have been fired from their job, the newspaper column has been taken away from them. I think 30 or 40 times over the years i am so disappointed with the trend that turkey has taken an 33 they always enjoyed a special obligation juppe bollenbach from 1952 from the joint chairmans going shoulder to shoulder that is then Important Role during the of cold war with the eastern flank of nato and during the iraq war and if those refugees that were misplaced but unfortunately with elections in 2002 erdogan assumed a political position the following year turkey has amazingly become antiamerican. Nato is not just security Better Coalition of countries and because Erdogan Turkey is islamists islamists, antiamerican hostage ill to humanrights is an uncertain ally in nato and the allies were in europe. If nato was established to date no way that turkey would qualify for membership these are strong arguments but i want to get the origins of the popularity of erdogan. Doesnt he have accomplishments from Turkish Society . Election of 2002 established the head of government so as the response to the corrupt Political Parties and politicians. Also of response between turkey and the kurds in turkey. Such use those Election Results of 2002 as a breath of fresh air. Host you use that word that seems to be making a resurgence what does that mean blacks. The invisible blab of Security Officials or a bureaucracy or those who have a stake whenever tools are at their disposal and to have the invisible he and. And revealing the reach of the deep state to promise reform with the secular parties who are corrupted and turning to erdogan as the alternative. Were there early sign of erdogan broader ambitions to transform the apparatus . There were Early Warning signs that were antidemocratic as early as 1998 erdogan beside it a poem in the village has said the drones are the helmets and the bayonets the faithful are the soldiers. And went to court for using religion as a tool. So we saw early on the devotion of islam permeating his political approach but questions about his commitment to democracy also surfaced. Famously quoted after the 2002 elections to say democracy is like a streetcar you get off when you reach your destination. After the election they did not immediately move to consolidate his political power is but we saw over time and in the wake of the election that erdogan and the eight kepi to take rigorous steps to crack down to keep their image that is not the turkey u. S. Officials were comfortable with to be compatible with the e. U. For the natal membership. You wrote about 2013 being an important turning point. What happened . As people try to understand with other western capitals at what point does he turn away from the west with those policies . 2013 is an important transition point. This is the year of the vchip morrissey was removed and convicted in the show trial and there was a strong sense of kinship with erdogan in many ways the ideology of the akp and moslem brotherhood. Viewed the rs a zionist plot and was convinced the west was also plotting against him. And then the turks turned out to protest the and demolition of a green area for the sake of building a shopping mall. In the center of in simple in istanbul but it was not that the protesters against us the demolition. Women were told what kind of lipstick advise have many children to have and so these protest spread across turkey. So the police came into the park to crack down to end the protest they were accused of police brutality. A water cannon was used, a teargas those protests elsewhere also became a flash point have. So there was one item in 2013 we could use as a threshold measure. At the end of the year a huge Corruption Scandal europe did. There were taperecorded in the erdogan and his son talking who has the insidious reputation for corruption, told his father Million Dollars in the family home. Then say use the money to buy luxury apartments over the course of the day all of those recordings were made then later released so of the erdogan family in the deeply rooted Corruption Scandal many were forced to resign others were charged and corruption was another element of the problem. We saw a worsening of conditions in syria. Keep in mind they have such a direct impact on turkey as well. To say the u. S. Would not tolerate the use of chemical weapons. But turkey and erdogan against the rebels with the rebel stronghold. Erdogan right the thought that he received assurances from the u. S. But erdogan may the decision to enforce a cool of regime change and then started the groups that became the Islamic State through the gi highway across the border there worms weapons and Logistical SupportWounded Warriors from syria appeared in hospitals and friend explained how a spiders were brought to them through the National Intelligence agency as medical services demanded this was not happening occasionally but the systematic policy decision. With the National Intelligence agency and implicated in the 2013 analysis it to the manhattan corrections that is involved with moving goals those transactions could equal one per week so this is the policy taken and that the same time and believe some the tieins to the pkk 80 was taken by isis and u. S. Officials said iwas noa strategic battle but then we reconsidered it would be used as a propaganda tool so we started to deliver weapons and erdogan strongly objected with the u. S. Air power. But across the region, i should mention 40 were women. Todays International Womens day we should recognize that not only by kurdish men vat kurdish women. Joined by members of the of pkk and Iraqi Kurdistan. When erdogan seals of border to try to isolate their were protest all across turkey. So here again the ceasefire broke down into be besieged by a adversaries so erdogan became increasingly paranoid and delusional and those who witnessed his deranged behavior started to organize against him. So the whole situation in syria with the kurdistan factions and isis how is that comeback on domestic politics . So what is the domestic Political Developments erdogan is facing . But then you can tell us. Guest there is lot of speculation with the attacks against regime changes that were likely done by the freedom falcons also there have been reports of attacks from vice this. Will negative i suspect from the officials whether or not it is the Islamic State with the terrorist attack there is increasing evidence that the National Intelligence agency was engineering those attacks occurring before International Meetings which would gain support for the International Community. But they rallied a Political Base and around the issue accusing isis and the pkk to commit terrorist acts. Turkey has traditionally blamed one foreign powers for its domestic problems such the same time erdogan was bleeding kurds for domestic events turkey also took games into the United States. And to confront uh leading Political Party leading up through 2016 as serious falling out in the turkish relations and with one senior u. S. Official said everything changed when erdogan attacked his own people what theyre not that was systematic if they were organized by the state from a domestic audience or International Community but by 2016 erdogan had a siege mentality and also from his own people. What are the results . Pemex and unsurprisingly that showed a dramatic reduction but that said they still won over 40 percent but erdogan always pursues in agenda and in order to do that needs constitutional reform. When he suffered a defeat in the june 7th election it was greatly diminished. The margin was lower than ey hoped for. And actually they have decreased so look at the missile and in order to rally the base restarted the civil war with of pkk there was election november 1 presenting itself in winning more than 49 percent of the vote now they are moving forward from constitutional reform and a referendum for the people of turkey would have the chance to express their views of the executive presidency. So things have been very fast with these images of erdogan getting him is message out through social media with the location of the plane. Ha day you read the dynamics the speculation that the insider knowledge is the to. What do you know, pricks. I really dont know. But some say that erdogan himself was part of the coup that people and the military were needed to organize then he had already compiled a list and is soon as the coup was suppressed as it would be a started to roundup the turks and crack down. Igo enclave in my book he was the mastermind. But what may have happened is is Intelligence Agency and maybe russia intelligence knew what was on. That was the for the crew actually occurred were they attack the necessary steps from the outcome. The was one hour before the special forces showed up but the first thing youd do you arrester killed the head of state then sees the media. Neater these happened but the coup was surprised, widespread adulation for erdogan and from the mosques across the country to come to the streets to defend erdogan and then they would crack down hard. Today between 120 and 140,000 troops that were dismissed from their jobs. Give a sense of the of backlash who has been targeted . Who are the groups with their role but there are two ways to enter the question. Immediately to allege that the movement that was behind the coup. But it is the islamist teacher to sponsor the movement around the world. It seems pretty benign to me that somehow he was pulling the strings to mastermind the event. So the erdogan regime accused them of behindthescenes make even the United States to organize the coup at the pleasure of the United States and then requested the extradition so these allegations that the u. S. Somehow was also the puppeteer. The second part to your question is so people who had enough time, this included University Professors the independent media more than any other country members of the police, military, Civil Society local government officials there were an uncertain ally members of the Kurdish Party that were arrested that they were conspiring to commit terrorist acts. To vote against the executive president. The local community and civic organizations with prevalent targeting all sectors of the society they were prepared in the advanc with of crackdown and erdogan targeted anyone he could claim that opposed the regime of through the executive presidency. One of those International Dimensions and i am intrigued by Vladimir Putin and this seems like it has been a rollercoaster ride with the attraction down and up, do you view that dynamic take us through this relationship especially in the context with the ties with nato. So that event is the war on syria russia supports and turkey is supportive to the arab groups fighting against the regime but that is the starting point that is Pretty Simple to understand but it gets more complicated especially given the events when they shot down a russian fighter plane it is not clear where a was when it was shot down that precipitated a huge chasm to say it was a stab in the back against travel to turkey of agricultural goods or turkish construction firms. This cut deeply into the turkey economy that was already struggling. Then rather remarkably erdogan issued a letter of apology to the family of the russian pilot and the crew and went to st. Petersburg to meet and as a result there is a list of sanctions to normalize relations and as turkey backed away from its support they sought Common Ground with russia against the United States. Talk about the personality did they are remarkably similar cut from the same cloth they had a falling out but also transactional in their approach and they like to make deals. I would include president does not qualify as a it protagonist. But turkey and russia found Common Ground with the rapprochement was very shallow with some special forces that were killed it was needed at this time with the increasingly dense battlefield you have russian assyrian turkish and kurdish all are competing for the same impact of the battle then the United States with the special forces on the ground and a cavalcade imploring the trumpet ministrations to shift the support to the free syrian army. With that era bands any group in just from the election of trump. Would this the impacter the basis of the relationship and the Sticking Point of the ever approach meant quite. The presecurity advisor had a brief stint of 24 days calling for the extradition to abandon support with the fighters the decision that trump has stated is made by the generals. But there is the big issue that hast to be addressed trump and erdogan have a first phone call february 8. They found Common Ground trump made no statement about the crackdown in erdogan made no statement the travel ban so following day mike pence made statement of u. S. Turkish relations so it has then committed to repairing that bilateral relationship by the end of the obama administration. But it is more than a rhetorical exercise that will require specific steps to address of core concerns of first is to extradite to abandon the support sidee involved but the decision to extradite is not a political decision it is saying the goal decision legal decision with the evidence supplied to make a determination if that is sufficient for extradition made by a u. S. Judge the ruling has the option to present the case if the decision goes against them they can appeal. Were looking at months or years of deliberations until the trump illustration decides about syria in whom the u. S. Should align the u. S. Has cooperated closely in rebound that the 40,000 refugees have then our best allies we supported them when they liberated the Border Crossing and now those forces said include the majority are 5 kilometers out have fast for weapons to essentially destroy the caliphate as President Trump has vowed he would do to destroy a isis. There is the fear from the white p. G. The did is an extension of the pkk that is on the list of Foreign Terrorist Organization from the Iraqi Kurdistan but the Trump Administration said wash his hands because he cannot defeat one by supporting another stall that sounds good but they say this is a meeting about destroying terrorism in all its forms so keep in mind with the u. S. Negotiated with turkey, then they joined the fight by launching almost all of the attacks much to the dismay of the government that had shared platform. Thquestions arcerebral. Did th continue the support for the n. Y. P. D. . And has not been announced i am sure they are intended to nullify but if the pentagon prevails we will continue to expand the cooperation with the white p. G. When youre fighting organization that is the first question of concern the second question is what President Trump is called big unbeatable safe zone on the serious Turkish Border and the ypg has their boots on the ground to create a territory that is a continuous territory of those provinces to look at this says something similar to what happened which is moving toward becoming an independent state with a will in force that . Would take the special forces . A civil war within the civil war. Much more intensively than they are today. And there shooting at the syrian kurds but if we have this a son who will report wetzel we continue the cooperation or find some roll for those special forces . That is a hard needle to threadut theit passed to do with geneva the sustainable Peace Agreement for syria. It is hard to envision what syria looks like as the power is devolved from damascus with powersharing in the region as they read the exclusion of the United States that is rather remarkable they are an observer but then to invite those syrian kurds he presented his vision for the Syrian Government in the future and a parliament with the council of regions see you can imagine all of this so will the u. S. Support this arrangement where we align ourselves with the geneva negotiations that stops the killing to institutionalize the ceasefire . Or succumb to turkish pressure that is unknown or untested . Turkey has offered the armed forces that they have not given us any indication of how reliable they are. And when turkey invaded mitt turk week took weeks and weeks when they were killed as the ypg has shown enormous battlefields so what will we do . Or will we played geopolitical games quicks and think that would be the priority. So with that syrian conflict in the different factions now we will open this up to the audience questions and answers right for the microphone to come your way remind you that you are on the record and tell us who you are. [inaudible] those conditions of the relationship to be the strategic position to be extremely large and with any future scenario to be important player do you see a way that the u. S. Cutoff for incentives with the of approach want rapprochement with russia at . And the strengthening alliance quick. So tricky was an indispensable member of nato. The eastern flank of nato will move from eastern turkey to the air base will be the forward station use by Coalition Forces in the region. The iraqi kurds will hold a referendum on independence and gesht a friendly agreement and u. S. Will be one of the first countrieses to recognize it. Turkey will also find that its in turkeys National Interest to cooperate with iraqi kurds largely because of the large volume of oil and gas which is shift from north to Eastern Mediterranean port of jaharm, and as iraq becomes increasingly radicalized and led by shiite extremists with ties to irans revolutionary guard, turkey might actually look at the iraqi kurds as a welcome bufferrer between the shiite led iraqi and itself. But nato will evolve weve already heard from President Trump a willingness to revisualize nato in my vn it recognizes tkey it is, not for how it was or how we wish it to be. And corresponding steps to extend the eastern flank of nato from the entire surroundings into iraqi kurd. Take another one. In the back. [inaudible conversations] how strong in your view is to deal with the view about the immigration about refugees who might become immigrants especially in the view of the upcoming election to germany and france that can be into turmoil with their huge way of new immigrants. It is a good question. We havent discussed turkish view relations in the revolution so it is an important question. Everyone rightly says that the e. U. Is constantly shifting the goal post. The e. U. Turkey deal on migration had two components. They were 6 billion at the e. U. To pay turkey. I think it has been dribbling out some sums to assist with the refugees in turkey. By the way who were created by conflict supported by turkey through its assistance to jihadi groups. The other component of the deal involved liberalization for turkey with the e. U. So its easy for the e. U. To come up with 6illion euro and pay off turkey it is much harder for e. U. To suddenly throw open its borders, allow liberalization because many of the syrian who is ended up in turkey and who may have extremist backgrounds are actually are actually security threats to e. U. Member state. So in my view theres zero prospect that the e. U. Can provide visa liberalization to turkey. Theres always been a racist tendency among europeans stronger today than ever before. And my question is is, why suddenly two summers ago were there more than a million refugees who took flight from turkey and decided that they wanted to go to denmark or to germany rather than stay where they were . Partly it has because they had a futility about ever being able to go home. I think we have to acknowledge that. But i wonder what conditions were going on in the camp and the treatment of Asylum Seekers denied work permits by turkey that created a desire for them to leave turkey, a great hazard, set sale to greece which turns into a warehouse for refugees and seek a Brighter Future in Northern Europe which has shown itself to be deeply hostile towards immigrants. So there are a lot of Unanswered Questions in my view that fact that the e. U. , turkey deal on my grants has held so far. Is remarkable i dont think it endures mostly because the liberalization side of the deal has no sign of being implemented. Question here in the front and break to the microphone and reted the question i have relates to some requests that ive seen in the service that ive sometimed found useful but other times it is like raw intelligence not accurate that is named intelligence through this israel [inaudible conversations] and they were reporting in the era after the election the u. S. Election and before the inauguration that trump, russia, and turkey it come to an arrangement to divide syrian to three zones and to push out his iranian forces. Then they, all of this up which is not typical of the other reports ive seened or turned out not to be reliable but indications that with the pressure on trump because of the undisclosed contacts with russia that [inaudible conversations] and trump realized he couldnt go along with this anymore and it was u falling apart. Have you heard anything that would confirm that . What do you make of it if you think that it is at all credible . And his recent meeting that you referred to which is sort of characterizes as a means to avoid having those russian, back forces and u. S. Back forces fighting one another, is that just to avoid that on battle field other than raise prospect that there might be future negotiations along those borderlines . So keep in mind there are two multilateral tracks that are going on. One will call the aston track about ceasefire, about deconflicting and russia and turkey did come together and agree to terms of the ceasefire, and in some areas that ceasefire has been implemented much to the benefit of weary syrian. The second track will call the geneva process and those are political negotiations about the future of syria. And we may have seen some small steps on the geneva track is still stalemated. The idea that we would deyvi up syria in three parts sound an awful lot like what great powers have done in the middle east previously. Im not sure that you can replace sights for prudent and air to one, but clearly drawing a map on the the back of an e have they is lope in powers are distributed not an effective peace making or negotiation strategy. And besides, it doesnt address the fate of four to miff million cruse that are American Allies and are proven vest and most reliable friends. So what are we going to do with them . I wouldnt be surprised if kurds in syria got dealt out and actually in 1975 the u. S. Negotiated the cord and dealt out kurds at that point in 1991 we heard to rise up against saddam and refuse to support them. So there is historical precedence to u. S. Abandoning te kurds. But frankly the world has changed. The kurds are no longer just a stateless people who are victim. Kurds in syria are an army with 40,000 men and women under arm working side by side with u. S. Special forces. Check up with a political solution that dev have i up the country in three parts isnt something that you can do on the back of an envelope. It is going to require a serious negotiation about a constitutional arrangement for syria. And in my vision that arrange element look a lot like date and accord did for bosnia. Youre going to be region where is local groups some of those with military capabilities are responsible for security, for governess, for development and humanitarian afathers. There will be some connections to damascus because assad has made it clear that hes not moving any time soon or to tehran any time soon pop so were going to have to figure out what kind of power share is going to work for sear why and you cant have power sharing youre not going to include the syrian kurds as one of the beneficiaries of a dev luges of powers agreement. Thats why u. S. Leadership is so important in these negotiations. Russians and kurds can if they want. But when it comes to viable, durable peace making, the u. S. Needs to have the seat at the table. When it comes to enforcing a Peace Agreement, the u. S. Needs to play a role in tandem with all lum and the u. N. So the u. S. Cant just step back and let russia and turkey take care of it. Thats a formula for continued violent conflict. Right behind that gentleman in the green. Wait for the microphone if you could. Thank you. [inaudible conversations] i have two simple minded questions, first do you have any thoughts on what happens between israel and turkey from here, and the second simple minded question is what happened to turkey after passes from erdogan ssesm the seat from the serious illness . Well remember that turkey is real relations were extremely cooperative up until the incident of 2008. When turkey sponsored a humanitarian convoy to go to gaza and break the embargo. When Israeli Defense forces boarded the convoy and they were attacked by persons oned movi there were scwntly one killed including one u. S. Citizen and breaking off with israel, canceling weapons procurement deals. Israeli tourists coming to turkey took a nose dive. Just recently with sending a letter to netanyahu, weve seen some improvement in the israel turkey relationship. But here again, this is not something that profoundly affects the relationship. Israeli wont forget statements that israelis and netanyahu wont forget statements that erdogan made calling palestinian a genocide but a shallow transactional arrangement and the second part of your question. Turkey coast guard to one, i guess prospect and to build on that, you know, talking stock of the legacy and the changes. What would turkish goth government look like without that as a figure. So i had a conversation with a former u. S. Ambassador to turkey i asked what can we do to help turkey through this transition you know what he told me . Assassinate erdogan i was shocked because i never heard a u. S. Official say anything like that. It shows that deep degree of em distrust between United States and turkey today and frankly i dont think u. S. Will contemplate such a move. But i qowld agree with you that erdogan days are numbered but someone will put a bullet in his brain and put turkey out of his misery under erdogans leadership then what happens . Turkey is a deeply divided country. There are red and there are provinces there there be widespread it is not through acue and it is not true assassination. If turks are serious about restoring their democracy, that starts on april 16th, we have the vote authorizing turkeys new executive authoritarian constitution. And from what had i hear a majority of turks oppose it is there a chance to allow turks to votes down the constitutional change, establishing his great powers . I dont think so. And it reminds me of something that assad said after election in syria he got. 3 of the vote and he was had asked how do you feel about todays election, his response i want to know who was the. 7 hes going to sure he win withs this and cast further doubt on his credibility and further destabilize turkey and further undermine the u. S. Turkey partnership. But also recommendation still the constitution means of have to be probed at all cost. So constitution means being rejecting the constitutional reform, that would institutionalize a dictatorship im not sure thats possible. Im not sure is that erdogan would ally it. As somebody who works on peace building im profoundly opposed to political assassination. So let me just state clearly for the record i dont seat path to democracy in turkey running through that kind of action. But the turkish people are noble. Part of the reason ive been to turkey so many times is because i have so many friends whom i admire greatly and i feel they want to restore turkey prowestern ties and the countrys greatness. That cant happen with erdogan as a chief executive. We have time for one more question. Yes, sir. [inaudible conversations] over 168 [inaudible] so ive never heard of your excellent writing about erdogan and ive read your excellent writing about isis links to erdogan government and m. I. T. But i afraid it is above to speculate why russian generals were ankara before the day. If you connect the dots did looks a lot like they were talking about Security Strategies that therm putting lists together of prowestern generals and Security Officials who would be purged thereafter. But i dont have any authoritative source that would tell me that is fact. I do have in my book anonymous references from senior akp official from a Senior Police and intelligence official about the degree of criminality that exists in the akp and the turkish government. But for all of the obvious reasons as persons wouldnt allow me to attribute the information to them, because they would be dead as would their family members who otherwe be in jail. So i wrote this book because i strongly believe that the u. S. Turkey relationship is critical to the United States. But nato as a Security Partnership has proven itself turkey has shown an indispensable commitment to may toe. Im horrified at the turn of events of impact of u. S. Interest, the affect that it has on turkish citizens full ride scholars who have been here now cant go back to turkey. The emails i get every day from people who are lamenting that crackdown and the impact on their lives. So i hope that we can restore turkey as a Gold Standard of democracy. The turkey new turkey you would takes to step resolve its differences with kurds in turkey that it would acknowledge the Armenian Genocide and work to resolution with other minorities including reopening the seminary. Theres a lot that turkey can do to put itself become on track. Its time for Straight Talk and an adult relationship. Ive written this book because i want to contribute to that conversation. David i think thats a great way to end. So just a reminder david will linger, and sign some books and take your informal questions. The book is an uncertain hour turkey under erdogan dictatorship and David Phillips. Thank you for joining us. [applause] how do i spell your name [silence] [inaudible] when the class is over director emily will speak with us about the Publishing Lab and the creative writing dpght. Somebody suggested this last week and i cant remember who it was. But i loved it, the idea that the nonfiction pieces have the little sin