Transcripts For CSPAN2 Soner Cagaptay Discusses The New Sultan 20170423

[inaudible conversations] good afternoon. Welcome to the Washington Institute. I am robbed that last comment there and im delighted to welcome you to this special event. Before you begin, if i can ask everyone to take your iphones or sam sans or whatever and turn them on island because we are broadcasting live on cspan 1. Please watch your language, speaking clear tones of people around the world can hear us today. You are free to to eat as much as you like because we are eager to get the message of todays discussion out far and wide. It is not often that one can time the publication of the new book so precociously to an International Event or perhaps i should say its not often one can arrange an International Referendum in a faraway country to be time perfectly with the publication of a new book. But as it turns out, we have today this confluence of events. We have the referendum and hurt you in turkey that although the results and process where provocative and remain controversial, im sure youre going to hear more about that. The result seems to be to elevate the existing president of turkey into an even higher for elevated position. That one might be able to call the new sultan. Surprisingly enough, that is the title of this new book by the Washington Institute new program, soner cagaptay, the new Sultan Erdogan and the crisis of modern turkey. Brandon l. Right away we know that the subtitle of the Outstanding New work suggests in the subject of todays discussion is what type of crisis . How lasting a crisis . A crisis at home, crisis abroad, crisis getting worse were crisis Getting Better now for the provocation and controversy that there may even be some clarity about the direction of turkish leadership. And to talk about these questions, first i am going to be quite delighted to welcome to the podium the author of the new sultan, my colleague at the fellow in the two, soner cagaptay. And then we have an outstanding array of turkish expertise on the panel and i say look around the audience, a remarkable array of turkish expertise within these four walls. But after return to stoner soner, im delighted to welcome gonul tol, adjunct professor at George Washington University Institute George Washington University Institute for middle east studies here in washington. And then well turn to the Amberin Zaman, as a Public Policy fellow at the middle east program, veteran journalist writing for the monitor. 15 years turkish correspondent for the economist. Really delighted to have this panel, which bring such indepth knowledge of the current political situation and the likely direction of politics in turkey and special interest to this audience of course the direction of the u. S. Turkish relationship in this new era. Weve already seen the first sign of the direction of the u. S. Turkish relationship of course with President Trumps outrage to the newly reempowered president erdogan just yesterday. I will now call the podium by kali soner. Soner has been at the institute for many years. Hes the author of several books on turkish domestic and Foreign Policy. One of soners greatest claims to fame is there is a generation of American Foreign Service Officers who have gone on to serve america abroad in turkey who have passed through soner is a set instructor of american diplomats abroad and i think we are better served for that, that americas representatives in turkey have the benefit of soners wisdom. Thats one of the things we do at the institute is not just a pine in books, author and television, but to do what we can to improve the quality of American Foreign policy by such things as teaching american diplomats. I am really delighted to have soner. Soner, the podium is yours. Thank you, rob. Im so pleased to see my friends and colleagues from around town. They really appreciate you out here. I also want to thank Amberin Zaman and gonul tol for joining me. If you havent seen it yet, gonul had an excellent oped on the referendum then. A frequent commentator very fishy is that ive been a follower of her work for nearly two decades. Im very pleased both with me at this panel today. I also wanted to start of course by thinking president Tayyip Erdogan farwell timing the referendum with the launch of my book. I couldnt have done it without them. Literally and figuratively. This is obviously critical time in turkish history. I want to talk first about my book, the new sultan. I decided to write this book in june in the original idea was i would write it over a year. It would be edited sometime this spring and published in the mix somewhere. As i was writing the book ,com,com ma the editors reached out to me and asked me to pull up the deadline i agreed, saying that it coming back from the beach and i guess, christmas in december, form a period and then it was edited and copyedited in proofread typeset and printed in the last three months. There you go, it in my hand, trained 10. Very proud of the book but i want to thank once again a number of people to whom i of gratitude. First of all, i boss rob satloff because he is my boss. Thank you, rob. The institute and my colleagues come a great place to work and probably the best intellectual. I enjoyed tremendously my tenure here. And mikey to be surrounded by so many smart people in colleagues as well as research assistant. I have been last in the last decade and a half by a very Impressive Group of interns and research assistant. Some of them in this room. You guys are both in the book. Thank you. The biggest banks goes to foia. What you get up for a so i can embarrass you . You deserve a round of applause. Thank you. She was with me at every stage of the writing of this book. I hope i did not drive her crazy. They are buried with me. We went through every sentence together to the instances i would tell his sentence and she finish it. Have a look at that typo . Yes and i fixed it. I should also mention i have dedicated this book to the loving memory of my mother. Was born into a workingclass family went to uniform a phd. My parents have raised me and my siblings deserve gratitude and this goes to my moms memory. What i wrote it and what its really about. Ill go to my colleagues and have a good discussion on. All in turkish politics as a student for nearly two decades every time it in the last 15 years have been at the institute analyzing and writing turkey. For those of you who follow my work, youll find traces of our discussion in this book. In many ways, the new sultan follows my previous book as rob has mentioned, the rise of turkey. I looked at turkeys Economic Growth currently Prime Minister and the development party. After having to be as a weakness for Economic Growth in the last decade that after being transformed, it transformed politically turkey politically. I think erdogan went to make sure and be a great power. The path to that poster becoming an advanced economy. Erdogan is make and sell cars. Turkey has to become a hub for google antipasti that goes through an open society and a liberal v. I argued in my book, the homer was to get to that of the society, economy and open society to the new liberal democratic order, one that would provide for freedom in the two halves of turkey that ill discuss that in a minute that is freedom of religion or the religious path and freedom from religion for the secular half and that this new constitution with provide broad liberty for all citizen. I concluded that the perennial secular religious tension in the bird of the kurdish problem inside and outside of the country, turkey within our, avoid idling, economy and become a great power. I dont think erdogan wrote my book, so i wrote this one now, the crisis of turkey. That may tell you where its heading. The book is a story of the consolidation in turkey since 2003 when he became Prime Minister. Attract various steps. Happy to look at it in the q a. I argued that erdogan has become as unassailable meaning hes the most powerful turk. The problem is half of turkey loves him and the other half of turkey looks and and that is the crisis in which turkey has found up as a result of erdogans trajectory. But its more a erdogan wants to shape turkey in his own image. So i suggest that is following what i call the editors motto. In the early 20th century, he set up a modern state and initiated an aside image using state power including education policy at the secular western europeans society. Erdogan wants to use the motto but of course hes taking a cue from the countrys founder but he went to both emulate and replace. Of course he does not share other turks values, just methods of is topdown social engineering you want to use state power once again including educational policy to shape turkey in his own image in a very different than a country that would therefore become in erdogans vision to the core islamic, religious and middle eastern and conservative. But if they topdown method that i think erdogan aspiring out of turkey. Erdogan is a problem. Erdogan has a democratic mandate for should say he had one until this sunday. There is widespread consensus that election process is not fair and emerging consensus there were irregularities during the voting. Erdogan has suggested to move forward. We are not going back to the election. So he had a mandate and question her half of the country that doesnt report had with deep societal polarization and does not alleviate it and exacerbate the divide. Turkeys memento, therefore it would be proerdogan camp. I also argue its unlikely the Erdogan Turkey has email, domain experts administering. I see some of my friends and farmers in each of the state department to discuss this many times you do very complicated question of political, ethnic religious and social groups and its going to impose its vision on the entire country. We saw this in sundays referendum. Near majority if not a majority of turks voted against it and whats more importantly we have a map of turkey on their. They go. You can see on the map an overwhelming number of turkish provinces along the coast of northwest representing an overwhelming percentage of turkeys gdp voted against him. He last assembled. Our three large cities. A symbol of his home city. Which i track in my book in 1994. And why they gave them the benefit of the doubt so is five obviously but more importantly as well as losing in the kurdish area, has lost istanbul including his own neighborhood in a symbol. This is Significant Development on the entire society Going Forward. I argued that the turkey is too large demographically and economically complicated politically and it entirety. Despite erdogan suffers to create a crony capitalist instincts, which controlled economic clout. But overall democrats and values. It will be hard to move forward. That may look no trajectories that i highlighted my book Going Forward. I see three to reject or is moving forward and i am going to the food looking at press referenda which observes referendum as well. The first is the current affairs. Deeply polarized society in its half of the country, conservative, islamists and nationalists, three groups who believe that turkey is having and the other half, a coalition of opposition figures, socialist , liberal muslims who believe that turkey is power. This is the best case in my view fortunately going over to see permanent state of crisis that turkey is secondary. There is a chance that he might become even more autocratic Going Forward. Theres a chance he might and democracy going for. That is a second project tree. The third is an extension of this i can societal polarization coupled with attacks from the right from the far left. Together with nefarious neighbors that surround turkey from russia to be assigned treated to regime. That is the scenario we need to hash out for you. I really want to turn now and look at the Foreign Policy challenges because we havent discussed again. I spent a lot of time in the book about how rush of course is the nemesis that keeps coming despite the fact the russians are friend lay. They are making up the deploying troops in setting up a nonclay which is allied with the pkk. The u. S. Policy also works with ipg, but only i says. It is surrounded by assad regime, turkey basque rebels turkey back to rebels. Going forward, russias going to be erdogans nemesis as well as a most feared enemy. But does this mean erdogan is coming to the western world . He is not. Both the western European Union became a punching bag in the runup to the referendum and this is going to continue. Theres a lot to do with the next step, yet he has become a president that he also wants to obviously come up. He has to win those elections before the parliament. Something interesting happened in the last election. Some of the voters of the nationalist action party, which is a smaller faction in the Turkish Parliament oppose about 10 in the referendum and some of them voted the referendum. Hairsplitting. The foot is happening where borders in anatolia are flipping for erdogan and many voters in the coastal provinces have large cities are flipping again erdogan. That is music to the ears because they can solidify the popularity with voters flocking to his party. This is an ultra nationalist party. He also suggests that they not only string in an mhp will fail turkey pie 10 electoral threshold. When that happens, akp a supermajority in the parliament with the little as 45. I think that is the rule Going Forward. That means ultranationalist and policy issues on the European Union. I anticipate major problems. Hes just suggested he might want to bring back Capital Punishment would end up with turkey being kicked out of your. The highest good of the country. Turkish defense will not have access to that and it changes the political dynamics in the country because he controls the chorus. I also anticipate a hard nationalist policy line towards u. S. Cooperation with why pg because that is in line with the hardline policy on the kurds in general to make sure that voters dislike for him in the referenda become permanent akp voters. That is his game Going Forward. I have provided you with so much doom and gloom. I want to bring some good news, so there is a poor trajectory for turkey. Ive given you three in my book. The full trajectory exclude erdogan. It is because of him, but despite him. Thanks dan this is a middleclass society. Turkey has grown. Its a better. Citizen are better off than before. My previous book that i like most of the rest of turkey went erdogan came to power, infant mortality rate was comparable to prewar syria and now it is comparable to spain. Now they live like the spanish. That is why they are voting for erdogan. I also argued that its growth has built a middleclass base and and nothing makes it very middleclass demands. It is along the mediterranean, e. G. It seemed that is that you can remember rightparen. That is a good sign Going Forward. I dont want to get carried away with the case for liberal turkey because number one, the opposition of course is an extremely divided one. Its very divided. It includes turkish and kurdish nationalists. Secular and conservatives here sent their right and center left. Sometimes the gap between them is wider than the gap between them and erdogan. Go back to the leadership issue. They lack a charismatic leader. Conservative, islamist turks have their own endquotes. That is until the day that such a man or woman emerges who can make a case for liberal turkey. Liberal turkey would have a constitution that would provide freedom of religion and freedom from religion simultaneously. That would provide row liberties for all individual liberties including cultural liberties than the current. Until that law might have remained deeply worried about turkeys future. I do think that while liberal turkey remains, it is thought both given the Economic Transformation that turkey has gone under. Interface to him that im going to write my next book as well. Thank you, everybody for coming. I appreciate it. [applause] good afternoon, everyone. First of course, congratulations. I think he is one of the most productive in town who makes us look lazy and my boss loves you. Aside that i do enjoy reading your book. But of course, when i picked up the book, the first thing came to my mind was which sultan . So i think at this point after the referendum to come and many of us can live with this reformer, but what about a truly authoritarian ruler. The book is a great job of opening a no into the psyche of erdogan. This is a narrative of 1800 which resonates very well among the constituent and beyond. Is showing us interaction between ideology and the reactions to it. So that is why particulaparticula rly enjoyed reading the chapters on kurdish nationalism and islamism, both reactions to the ideology. But i think turkey right now theres been a postislamist era. And one would expect this year or two to embrace liberal values because they are both radical authoritarian ideologies. The best postislamist era is not truly embracing liberalism values on the opposite is actually hot anime. Ive soner mentioned in the book, there is now a growing middleclass in turkey and they are demanding middleclass values. So this is striking because at a time when there is a growing middleclass in turkey, they are not demanding middleclass values. Instead, there is a growing authoritarianism and i think it is because they resent inherently authoritarian and political culture. Some might blame for being essentialist, but i believe that is at the heart of the issue here. I think the original sin of turkeys political culture is the statist ideology. The state occupies a very unique place in the turkey say key. The society, everything has been done through state. And even was created by the state itself. And that is why we have the middleclass. Thats why we have a Business Class that is not really standing up on the authoritarian policies in the 21st century. Instead, many are aligning the government. So i think starting from the 19th century in the rebuilding by the state itself, i think that was problematic. And again, that explains the state of turkish democracy at the moment and the people who are supporting erdogan. Because going back to islamism versus secularism debate, the people who wrote it on sunday in favor of the referendum and come with a 50 were not voting for islamism. Those opposed to it, they are not obviously either. Theres Something Else going on here. The 50 voted on sunday. They just do not wind up for terry and has been. Of course, this is a very dark picture. Where do we go from here . Im a bit optimistic about sundays results because i am the majority that he captured on sunday gives me hope. And at the end, electoral politics will play a role. But i think more than not, of course we dont know what erdogans strategy will be moving forward. But i believe despite his big three, he has lost ground. He has lost ground in his own constituents to you. You have some major cities including istanbul, which is a very import place. He launched his political place and he hasnt lost since the 1990s. So the fact that he lost his symbol is very telling. And some of his base, the educated urban base i dont think a 100 happy with his authoritarian tendencies. And also in the runup to the referendum, he plays to the nationalist at his main strategy was galvanizing the nationalist vote. He employs this very ultranationalist stick and yet i think the strategy didnt pay off. He could not out to mobilize as much as he wanted to. And instead, he increased the kurdish region compared to the november election, which is surprising. Of course right now it is very fluid. Its very difficult to be sure about the numbers. But what we are hearing from journalists is that hundreds of thousands of people, the ruling party increases does by around 400,000, which is almost 1 . And i think in his big kerry speech, the one before that on the day of the referendum, he said that we increase in the kurdish region. So i think that is good news. Instead of aligning with the nationalists, this time he might have to recalibrate the strategy. And maybe work with the kurds. And that could mean, and i know my friend and a colleague here, and you make a batch of negotiation, resume the peace talks with the kurds. Of course if you choose to play a set of aligning with the nationalists working with the kurds. So that is good news. That would be good news not only domestically, also the turkish economy is been hit hard by terrorist attacks here that would be good news for an economy as well because i think the economic down turn is going to impact his popularity as well. And also, that would take some room to maneuver syria and that would also remove some of the tension from turkey u. S. Relations as well. So i would like to be optimistic , but on the other hand, knowing that hes a pragmatic leader gives me hope. Yesterday there was a panel at the bipartisan policy center. For one of my colleagues mentioned is that hes always been pragmatic everyone always know him as a pragmatic leader. But these been empowered for so long that hes become the state himself. And that captures have now. So now hes not the attic leader that we always thought he was. Instead, hes going to be more ideological. Its going to have the ideological reflects which may prevent working with kurdish nationalists. It is difficult to make predictions when it comes to turkey. It might be a little bit easier now that officially we have a president ial system and it takes authoritarian countries. When it comes to erdogan comment it is very difficult to say what the next movie is going to be, but that 1 , the thin margin gives me hope that i would like to end it there. Thank you. [laughter] i think im too short for that podium. Youre not. Okay, if you say so. Thank you very much for hosting me here. Id like to return the compliment. Ive been following you for around 20 years, too. And so, here it is what i would like to say about your book. If i were a journalist and editor told me to go and cover the referendum and then i never set foot in turkey before, didnt know what was going on, this is be a godsend. I mean, this is really great. It sort of brings you up to speed. Its take the written. It has saw the name point. It is really, really fantastic book. Very timely obviously and some of the most Critical Issues in turkey today and above all the whole issue of polarization, which of course is a huge challenge for Turkish Society. Being the last obviously of everything that needed to be said has pretty much been said already, but i would just like to add a few of my thoughts. In terms of yesterdays results, i think that it was not tired. That was probably, you know, the least bad result we could have had in summers thanksgiving that we all assume that erdogan would witness reprimand a period so the majority he has his not really much of a majority. Its razor thin as my colleagues pointed out, which means in turn he can bask in the glory of this huge popular mandate that he was handed the idea during turkish people. On the other hand, he settled with the responsibility of power because he did when and now he has this baby in his lap. So, where will things go from here . First of all, this is a cake and at november 3rd 29 technically. What will then is weighing heavily on his mind. He last istanbul, that is huge, which in turn sent just that his Grassroots Organization were not working very hard. As soon as he gets invited to leave the party again, which is one of the provisions of the new system that kicks in immediately, as soon as the results are made official, people said about two and a huge sort of shakeup within his own party. In doing so, probably generating a fresh batch of disgruntled. The pilot rd days and thats not going to work that well for him necessarily depend a nonwhere the disgruntled are challenged, and coalesce around a leader in people of the mhp, it is too early to say yet. I think it is probably too wildly optimistic about the first is aligned against him and who goes as their cortices. So very difficult. Heres the thing. For the First Time Since 1982, the legitimacy of turkish democracy globally has not been questioned in this way. The way the referendum is being framed in the International Press is all about fraud, about irregularities. I think the lse reported and i followed a lot of press conferences when i was living in armenia and those were really bad, yet what they said yesterday i was quite taken aback. Ive never heard something as harsh before. Im imagining the president said three ceiling and tents are grateful for President Trump. Im very troubled as to why President Trump would give him back, being that he knows how to desperate he was for that stamp of legitimacy and you wouldve thought the United States would of leverage that. So what happens next, we cant really talk about a stable situation. My colleagues described why. This in turn means he was instrumental lies more in policy which is the turkish relationship in the u. S. E. U. Relationship. And in order to deflect attention away from all of these big question marks and why he last istanbul, et cetera, he may embark on some crazy adventures. He may decide that its time to attack Northern Syria are maybe diving to singe our in iraqi kurdistan. We simply dont know. But the good news is really despite all the are city, with all my colleagues, the journalist who couldve put forward the case must effectively against this referendum in jail but allowed thousands of kurdish politicians in jail. The fact that the government height of the airways, despite adversity ensuring that we should have this result is extraordinarily and points to the strength of civil society. Also, it shows that turkish started maturing and the army will come to the rescue. Thats not a given anymore. It falls upon turks to fight the fight and thats very good manners. I think this is by no means over turkish and remains very much a work in progress. The arab springs was triggered by turkey by erdogan, challenging the establishment, the army that came full circle and is more like them. And then you have this result with people pushing back. Im proud of my country and you now for this vote. Lack xon. Thank you very much. Three fascinating and insightful present haitian which gives us a lot to talk about now. If i can pick up really with an intriguing comment that you made in your remark and ask you all about the direction of u. S. Turkish relations, now that we do have this outreach, from president erdogan, do you expect turkey to be a deep hurt and more complete partner with the United States in the lead the white house is trying to do in syria and iraq or do you expect more approach for a erdogan as we go ahead . I think it might be President Trump. Im under the impression that he might not have consulted the state department before he decided to make that phone call. I think President Trump seems deserted that done in post and perhaps that is what just happened. I dont know. The case remains as to defeat ices in. Particularly, tensions will remain because the partner of choice to do that remains already yesterday we heard before the phone call president erdogan against countries to work with terrorists. So i think that will remain a point of friction. The whole case is something we need to watch. I find it very interesting that mayor giuliani is now in the mix, bobby and i guess im turkeys behalf get two sentences about what this is. The whole case has to do with this very turkish iranian trader who is basically besting u. S. Buying gold with money and then selling the gold and sending the money back is how it works to iran and hes sitting in a jail in new york somewhere. Most recently the deputy manager general one of turkeys largest stateowned banks was also arrested in new york in connection with this case. But these were all couched in Turkish Court and the man who had been arrested in connection with that case was free but then got arrested in this country. Us turkish relations inthe new era. I think two bones of contention in turkey, the first one is the bye us connection. And the second one is of course the extradition. So when trump was elected, trump was, the current turkish progovernment media was quite happy thinking that now this be a reset in turkey us relations because with the other administration, he wanted to work with the pi we, it was obvious they would not interview him in the Legal Process thats involved in the extradition process so they were hopeful that things would be different. But that i doubted and thats what lies at the heart of what turkey us relations will look like moving forward so the first question is whats going to happen to us cooperation and how will that affect turkey us relations. I think it depends on all sorts of decides to deal with the turkish question. If he moves forward with the Turkish Peace process i think he might pursue a more pragmatic approach viscvis pye in syria and that could help turkey us relations but on the other hand, the extradition of gulen is difficult. Turkey has been trying to make this case, trying to move him personally to a coup attempt on july 15 and sending boxes of turkmen and its a Legal Process so the us court as to decide and that will take years so i think that it will remain a problem in turkey us relations. Thank you, i dont have much to add but before i do that, i realized that ive dedicated my book and to my mother, i may have been overly emotional because i was scanning the room at the same time to see who was going to be here but who do i go gratitude to but over the years ive had the privilege of working with an Amazing Group of Research Assistants including amberin and others in the room and im indebted to all of them. I bring them fruits and yogurt in the morning and so when i need a favor i can ask them so my former assistant tyler is in this room, thank you so much. Tyler helped me write my previous book as well as drafting chapters for this so im grateful. Im grateful to do other people in the room, those who know me know one of the things i like more than writing his teaching. I like teaching more but thats okay. Over the years ive acquired a large group of students at the state department, rob mentioned at the side and other places in two of my students are in the room, theyre both reading the book. Rachel and i appreciate it. And my thanks go to a whole bunch of other people in the acknowledgments and im grateful to all of you but i wanted to have a question on us turkish relations, i think this is now a subset of turkish Foreign Policy regarding what is a subset of erdogans political agenda. We talk about polarization, i was not able to go into the depths of that to provide a link to Foreign Policy. Its various groups demonizing them, brutalizing them physically, striking them down in their rallies and shutting them out in the media. And that list started in the last decade, i look at it in my book the pretrial years with the secularists and military. He added both leftists and liberals to the rallies of 2013. Then the kurds were added to the list and it went on and on so if you add these groups demonized by erdogan, physically brutalized by the police, blocked off in jail, track on in the media, they make up half of turkey, thats what we saw on sunday. They cannot continue to demonize further groups and slip unless they take the majority of the country against him which i think hes going after the internal enemies have run its course, now he needs external enemies and this is where hes going to incremental lies Foreign Policy even further. Theres little domestic process of snatching the meadowlands or germany or europe but this is the benefit of Getting National assistance to make orders to support his party and i think were going to see the same regarding the kurdish issue, us cooperation with wide pg and the curtis process, i think hes going to be unfriendly on all these accounts which will harm relationships with the United States because at this point its almost a given that washington is going to move to take rocco with ypg support but mostly with this support. If turkey delivers to the table magically 12,000 welltrained groups who can take raqqa, russia would love to do raqqa with the turks but i dont expect this to happen in the next year. Including its unlikely which i think puts the us in and turkey on a collision course. I want to second the comments on the election, outcome. Turkey has had, this is not something i foresaw when i wrote the book, the idea that the democratic mandate would one day be questioned. He has won elections free and fair until this time. So the issue was not ever a question but thats something that came out with the book. Is that the election that took place on sunday were not only not fair but increasingly with these irregularities throw into doubt whether these elections were free and fair and if thats not the case, they will be ashamed. Turkey has had free and Fair Elections longer and turkey has started in 1950 but it would be in incredibly important development. Us policy puts turkey on the mark for that Going Forward and turkeys not a country that is used unFair Elections, thats there be grudgingly our seal of approval to get Fair Elections, this is the first time and if elections are unfair and unfree it all goes back to being fair. Historians in the room, political scientists, help me. There are some of these questions where elections are not free. I think thats a crucial time. Good, thank you all very much. Let me turn to all the turkish wisdom in the room and those who lack some turkish wisdom and help get some from our panel. Questions from the audience. If you could wait and identify yourself to our members. Thank you very much, my name is Albert Kinsey and i have a small question, i know from the math that the total number of votes is much fewer than 64 million but turkeys population is over 70 million, that suggests a low Voter Participation rates. I think its a mistake, thats an error. It must be there error. Turkeys population is 80 million people, turkey has 58 registered voters. There were 1 million clerics that were not validated so the 48 million in the house, thats those that are counted. When erdogan got about 1. 7 million more balance so the opposition is called into question, 37 alice could be recounted. One is that came over, hes become president , thank you very much. On the far right, sorry. Speaking about Foreign Policy, all these relations between the free leaders in ankara, the Supreme Leader in tehran and theres some emerging rivalry and competition it seems to me. Theres always been competition. For centuries between turkey and iran and they manage to internalize their relationship i think. And i mean, they were on the opposing sides in syria and yet they find trade deals and Work Together so i dont expect that to change because officially turkey needs iran to, its dependent on iranian energy. So i dont think, no matter how, this is a variance in syria obviously prevailed but i dont think that they will come to a point in turkey and ran relations. That said, i agree completely with gonul that turkey has been effective in compartmentalizing that relationship. But increasingly you hear much more sunni, sectarian tone in the rhetoric which is causing i think quite an annoyance shall i say in tehran. And i think the, a lot will be determined by the position of the Trump Administration takes on iran whether its much more aggressive than the Obama Administration and whether turkey sees that more another way of redefining, resetting its relationship with the United States by siding with it. Ehud asked about relations with the Supreme Leader in tehran. Let me ask about the Supreme Leader in jerusalem. Theres been this pragmatic trade relationship that has been sustained even while the politics has been rather sour in ankara and jerusalem, how do you think this relationship will evolve in the new era. Im happy to take on that. I think its also another compartmentalizedrelationship where theeconomic part of it is going to grow. That is driven by necessity. Of course, with a growing economy, its all the g 20 economies except for paris a, its the only one that has no natural gas and no oil so it dependent on energy imports. For its growth and yet it gets three quarters of its gas and oil from russia and around, you adversaries in the region. Everywhere, the russians are undermining him and i think thats why theres compartmentalization, russians are acting not very happy but extremely unhappy with turkey in syria. Theres analysts with suggested that iran could take axis in the center and what have you so the sufficiency of a warning sign Going Forward but that compartmentalization also means what the rivalry with the ran in the background, filaments ligation means he doesnt want to buy as much gas and oil Going Forward, he wants to buy gas and oil moving forward and guess what . Hes going to buy kurdish oil from curtis dan and israeli gas, i think thats his ultimate goal and the israeli side has an interest in there, they have a lot of gas to sell. But most of its a large market that will absorb israeli gas and has the money to pay for it, and the political will to do such a deal so i think theres some prospects on that moving forward but politically, their relationship is always going to be undermined by continuous plots. And so i would say depends on to what extent the israelis are able to tolerate the economic relations with turkey to its ultimate benefit and turkish sides with hamas and whether this will be a breaking point. Okay, very good, thank you. And in the center . You seem to be sitting. Please identify yourself. He seemed to be setting in descending order of optimism with the old declaring herself out right optimistic. Fair saying this may be the best of a bad scenario and the numbers acting little more pessimistic, thats the problem but especially for the two of you, im curious what you see as the basis for optimism given that youve got consolidated power now in the president , he got fractured and weak opposition, a significant crackdown on journalism and civil society. What are going to be the remaining levers from the country that are going to enable people to continue to fight back against the greater authoritarian rules. And an example of ballistics, i mean there is on being mentioned for this, what we saw on sunday, the results of the institutional changes will not continue through 2019 and there are still elections. That is patently unfair but theres still elections and elections still do matter so i think thats why weve seen, i dont know if you are following twitter on the day of the referendum but i remember seeing pictures of erdogan and his close advisors looking quite sad so i think that they had taken no of how much ground is lost in its stronghold like istanbul so i think this would require a new calibration of strategy and also even the story is not sustainable. Officially weve been saying this, economists access was achieved under erdogans rule and thats the most important reason for the attention hes been receiving and in the absence of that, that loose coalition that he has would fracture so he have to make sure that he can resolve structural reforms. He have to make sure that you dont have bombs exploding in major cities. Chaos is going to hurt him electorally so thats why i think he has to change course and weve seen that before. Because hes a pragmatic so my short answer is electoral politics is the reason why im slightly more optimistic than the rest of them. And all order of optimism and height Going Forward, yes. I agree with electoral politics, but a point ill add to it, i have decided not to give you any more stickers from my book but ill give you one more. I argue in my book that the ataturk model has passed. One of the reasons is you can shake societies anymore, but that was attaturks time, thats why it doesnt work anymore. I like and dislike what hes doing, it will not work. You cannot shake this country top down in your own image as a leader, especially if that society is 97 percent literate, thats turkeys literacy rate, it will become universally literate by the end of the decade and it will become the first large muslim Majority Society and the first ever to attain universal literacy and in a society which is completely literate, its 80 percent urban which is largely middleclass, its going to be so hard for this guy to shape the whole country in his own image. He can try but it wont work. Half of the country will not fold under him, hopefully it will be democratic and state democratic they want opposing and that will balance it out and i think my sense of optimism is that this despite the fact that erdogan controls a large part of the media, people say 90 percent, probably more than that but its a complete media blackout and the erdogan option in the referendum, resources devoted to the pro Erdogan Campaign far outweigh the resources voted to the no vertical option. You only got 51 percent. It back. Maybe not even that so that tells me you have to have faith in turkey, its a great country. You have millions of people who despite the fact that the information and their access to evil campaigning was limited , they unfolded in large numbers and i think it sends of course the ground for optimism so im bettingon turkeys diversity , the fact that it economically is too big, demographically too large and politically too complicated for one person to shape it in their own image and that time has passed. Id like to think that the attaturk model that erdogan is emulating where he repeats a method but will also concrete his legacy is therefore not sustainable and i have a lot of faith in the electoral process moving forward. The question is whether you have a centerright option because you know turkey is mainly a country and in any election year, the parties do about 60 percent of the vote, sometimes up to about two thirds. Other parties do it 30 percent vote so its hard for me to see a single Party Getting him out. I think it will have to come to challenge from the centerright and in this regard i think what will really happen is what happened to nhp, the nationalist section that we talked about earlier which i think issplitting. So the mhp survey phases basically in two parts of turkey, one is in central and northeastern turkey which is conservative and rural and one is coastal and urban turkey in northeast and central turkey, the parties electorate completely or maybe for the most part folded under erdogan but its voters in the coastal provinces and bigcity had voted against him, meaning where are they going to go next . Thats important if you see turkey centerright leadership but will the leadership take over that power . The proposal is led by erdogan who comes from the ministry, is not in his islamic party, is mainly centerright figures in it. The voters are overwhelmingly centerright and conservative. The question is whether you will have a centerright option that could bring bring together voters to challenge him so i think there is this history of turkey Going Forward and thats my worst case for turkey which im going to write. Want to get in on this . Terry good, robbie. Thank you, im Robbie Danzig a consultant on consultations. With my book, but to rob me of my main question, were going to ask about my backup question. That is that turkey is now negotiating with russia on buying the f 400 and i was wondering if this is a tactic to get better terms, do you think they mean it or whether it would buy arussian system . You can put this into even more general context about who you think the future of turkish nato relations are going to go in this new era. I think its hard to answer that question without knowing what the future of nato itself is. Moving that aside, i see these negotiations with russia on the s 400, i think theres posturing involved and that turkey is keeping its options open and in case itself that the United States was aligning more fully with its own interests in syria in particular area but we wouldnt be hearing so much about me ask for hundreds anymore but i was just looking at the situation on the ground in syria and russian behavior. Despite this alleged bloodlust between erdogan and after erdogan pretty much apologized to him, what you are seeing on the ground is russia really acting against turkish interests when turkey tried to make a move on gannett, russia sent its forces together with the Regime Forces and some people say that the white dj stop uniforms and thats not exactly what happened but russia is doing the same on the western flank with arian and really having turkey in on both sides. Not allowing turkey really to act the way it would like to in syria and also seeming very ready to sort of throw up turkey the minute that turkey shows any sign of again shifting back to regime change, especially when you saw the enthusiasm displayed by erdogan. When the cruise missiles it, the russian response to that and we have what happens with whatever youd like to call it, i cant remember. But obviously lots of pressure on turkey to move against that ended it its in a position to do so because it is right there on the turkish border. And i think there is also a lot of tension, even on the trade response. There were bands on original exports for instance, they had been removed yet and turkey was expecting tourists to go back to turkey and i think in just a few weeks ago the charter flights, russia decided to cancel themso even , theres tension on that front for theres just that implicates that contrary to what weve been seeing in the progovernment media, neither side trust each other and doesnt really trust erdogan. Im not sure about erdogan because he was quite optimistic, he thought that if he could change the russian calculations with syria which obviously he couldnt but i dont think its moved as projected by the government certainly. Quickly on russia, i think erdogan thinks he has muscle, and its wrong and its a big mistake. I think putin looks at the region in the middle east is his main concern among of course with Everything Else going on is the success of political islam, specifically success of sunni political islam which is one reason why i think he sunni with egypt, its not here but is dissent in libya. Putin is preferring or actually picking a secular politics and entities of government, doesnt matter what the nature is. For the brotherhood , political islam alternative and for him, erdogans success is a success of political islam in russianear and abroad. Hell do everything he can to undermine it. His support is opposition which is why he is linked with both wide pg and people saying the pkk and will he will have stronger ties Going Forward because that shifts for putin against erdogan. Which is also why hes as i mentioned, theres no reason for the russians or anybody else to be offering, the ypg enclave surrounded by isis. But the sr regime means you are fighting turkey, thats repositioning so i think he sees erdogan falling in his ultimate goal and thats why i think erdogan is mistaken to think that putin is a friend Going Forward. Theres another reason why think its adversarial to the success of erdogans experiments, russia is about 20 percent muslim, in the Muslim Community has either historically or ethnic ties to turkey. Qatar constitutes a majority of muslims closely linked to turks and the chechens are historically turkey expelled by this is ours and they have a large backing in turkey so putin of course knows that any, what happens in turkey resonates stronger from these, much stronger inside russia than what happens in egypt and libya and thats why the ultimate goal of his goal is i dont see how they can be friends Going Forward and i think russia is going to be his main adversary as the polarization continues and the scenarios that i looked at in my book include of course russians are trying to undermine turkeys civil leave. Interesting, and that begins differed on my right. Thank you and congratulations soner, i enjoy the panel. Heres something that you didnt mention or at least i didnt pick up from any of you and maybe thats because you consider the issue nonrelevant to the outcome of the referendum but im going to give you the opportunity to help get better educated and that is what happens in the true or the quarter two, the third two, whatever you may want to call it, whatever happened as a result of the, what has been the impact since that was all we were reading about, the hurricane was supposed to round up. But one has the consequences been on this referendum and the situation in turkey Going Forward because it almost sounds like you almost are separate since none of you brought the two into your discussions as to what your views are goingtoday. I think that the failed coup almost tended to have victims captured on sunday so im sorry if i forgot to mention that but i think its safe to say its played a huge role because once again, the victim would that he talked about in his book, and once again that was at play. Because of that failed to, he could be able to do recreate that narrative and now he is the victim of enemies not just out there but also within the state. So i think that played a very important role. In terms of the gulen supporters, i remember in the runup to the referendum we saw scholars in turkey were talking about whether this he alienated thousands of people after the failed coup and people were asking whether that was relating to local votes. On sunday, i dont think i can answer that question but is clearly, the question comes down to how much support they have. , were they a real political block, because what we hear is that its a quality based thats going on and they oppose the government and the purges themselves,their mostly within the elite of the movement and many of them , those who are not in jail they managed to keep the country and the rest , they just do not see the difference. They share the same base and ideologies but thats why they did not in the purges tried to take that into votes for erdogan on sunday. Also on the impact of the crew . I dont think any of us really knows what happened. That night of the crew, who actually participated, who actually plan it. I still think that remains of a mystery. I think the narrative is that a significant number of glyniss were involved and that the coalition between them and various other anti erdogan officers in the army but i dont think we know because the government has seen to it that we dont know. Parliamentary inquiry that was supposed to be conducted on this has been very opaque. And of course, the media has been muzzled and is unable to do its job. So i think we really dont know whats going on inside the army itself as a result of the crew and i think that is the more important question. What impact has this to had on the army and what is the chance for its future in terms of the ability to intervene again. If it so chooses to. And what its role will be in turkish political life but perhaps most importantly of all, what the army is, what kind of people are joining this. Whats the new ideology and there are suggestions out there that its very different for the army of your that its much more conservative, religious and the new inductees are much more in the mold of erdogans position but this is just speculation. Okay, thank you. Yes sir. I have a couple quick questions. We heard about the Peace Process, after what happened in the gulen goal, do you think its an opportunity forward . My other question, of course it was shortened and a couple, about 80 votes to get approval for the 18 to the change or the change of the constitution and it got support from men, and hp. What kind of deal between the islamic route and the catalyst to get to that deal and has the draft of the constitution also in this matter. Why do we just take two questions. So for nonturkish aficionados, this was the Peace Process between the government and the kurds in the south and the second question on the relationship between the islamists and hard nationalist secularists, and hp. That deal was struck. Ill take the second one. Well, im in the contrary here. On the curtis issue, first of all we need to be very careful about which kurds do we think that president erdogan would be talking to. If indeed he feels this new magnanimity or is just compelled to as dinesh said because he has no other choice. First, hes, you know, already talking about the death penalty. The fact that hes lashing out at the dangers of ypg. Just within hours practically of the results announced. I dont think, i dont think that suggests that hes Ready Anytime soon resume peace talks for the erdogan inspired Kurdish Political Movement is how i roughly defined it which in turn i think is bad news for people like dinesh, especially between now and the time that this president ial system fully kicks in and he has new parliamentary elections where he hopes to drive the hp and the nhp below the 10 percent threshold. So that you know, he will have an absolute majority in parliament and the chp will end up looking pretty much like i guess the opposition does in russia. I dont think that hes ready to talk to them at all. On the contrary, i was saying a panel that he hosted the other day i think hes creating his own kurdish nonledger, it will be a mix of pious kurds, we already saw that they voted for him in this election and that might explain part of the ball although some would argue that irregularities for the fact that the kurds were prevented from campaigning effectively, monitoring campaigns. He will create i think by awarding contracts in all these cities and towns that were destroyed, he will through patronage create some kind of ace for himself among kurds but i dont think hes going to go back to talking to either the pkk or the hpv unless erdogan if completely rolls over and agrees to do everything he tells them to do which again i dont think is very likely because if you were to do so, hed lose all credibility with the Kurdish People for his own followers among the Kurdish People. We are unlikely to see a reconciliation there. Soner . When he talks about death penalties, i think hes referring to the glynis because you can see them apply retroactively. You think you can when you talk about severing ties with europe and told the osc to mind their own business and you know. This is my point, if you read i mean, if you think that just because he talked about those penalties, he cannot also be talking about returning to the Kurdish People because what im saying is maybe thats not relevant because maybe hes not referring to then and instead referring to the gulenists when he talks about death penalties. And yes, i made my point. Im more optimistic and especially if you look at, the hpv has lost ground so i think because they dont have many options to turn to. If you look at places like atari and the border town, its an hbd stronghold and in fact that is being the only party there and places like were not for instance, the fact that its such a context where erdogan has been restoring this internationalist, if you could be able to capture those towns, at the expense of the hpp, that tells me that security also, they think that hes the only person who can build that so if theres a tour of politics, i think you might end up going back and. But thats presuming that election was free and fair. It wasnt free and fair, but also i think compelling the results of a referendum whether there is a yes, sir no, is those parliamentary elections where they sit and it would be voting for him, not off on but in this case, yes. Its kind of apples and oranges and i think we need to be very careful and need much more information of what actually happened before we draw a firm conclusion about voting among the kurds. Also if i can chime in, its a great discussion. So i think what happened in the kurdish area is a little bit of a mystery. Overall, 85 percent turnout. The turnout was much higher in the area where the referendum failed, to reach 90 percent. Although with coastal provinces where they all failed had 90, thats pretty impressive. Turnout was lower in turkish areas than the national average. It was about 80 and in some provinces higher, upward of 70. So lower turnout in kurdish areas but its the only area where erdogan, pro erdogan made significant gains compared to those in the election before and the votes i think is part of the ball but they dontexplain the gain of 20 percent in some provinces. Overall erdogan spoke , the vote compared to a kb boat or vote for him in the president ial elections, which ever one you take made me stagnate across the country and drop into the provinces but in istanbul it dropped a little bit ended and cara, it dropped a little bit. It increased in kurdish areas so its still a mystery. I think its an irregularity but it will be there. My nonpulse view of looking nonsophisticated lee at the secretary observation of politics and i love to see if theres anything that happened. I would like to cause the pkks decision to carry the water. Of course, its a lot of optimism among ordinary kurds, they were very upset that the pkk did that. So in that sense if you had a free and fair election, i think youd still see the hpp votes go down. I absolutely agree with that. Lets take a couple more questions and were going to bring this to a close. Were going to run out of time on this. Congratulations soner and congratulations to the panel. I wanted to go back to soner scenarios and also his remark about erdogans strategy. I think you said that his strategy was to or have the effect of creating about half the country as enemies and now that hes run out of domestic enemies, he has to turn towards foreign enemies but it also seems like he has nothing but foreign enemies. So im wondering how he handles a situation which he has no friends, no sterol friends. What that would mean for your three original or for original events. Dave pollock up at the front. Thank you very much. And i want to congratulate you on a great book and a great panel. About islam, we havent really had heard all that much of the specifically religious islamic aspect of erdogans program Going Forward, his bill with voters. What effect that has on Foreign Policy. And i guess my conclusion from what youve been saying is that after 15 years in power, erdogan and the akp have not managed to further divide turkish policy ands politics. Is that your conclusion and what else can you say about what the specific aspects of islamic influence might come up in the future . Implications of having no friends, islam and turkey and lastly, for the record, is this the last election erdogan wins . Or do you expect them to win again when he comes up for election in 2019 . Were going to market in the history books. I can take the last question on islam. I think he managed to islamized society but he hasnt even tried to islamized the states so thats why especially if you look at, ive always argued that turkish islamism is different than the middle eastern islamism in the region in other parts of the region. And again, that has something to do with the tradition i talked about. I think whenhe came to power , he became part of the progress and hes socializing the state culture so he didnt even tried to islamized the state institutions itself so the islamism literature in turkey for instance doesnt really make reference to the concept like sharia for instance that often. And that tells you something about the Turkish Islamic society so i think there is no threat there. Thats why when we say the problem is not islamism but the problem is authoritarianism. So i dontthink thats going to be the problem. Again, his whole project has revolved around raising pious generations and turning the Turkish Society into a more religious society and he has managed that. Of course, we need to do more research on this is a nine and the rise of religion but maybe turkeys got an exception in that regard. I dont know if erdogan, of courses time yes because he changed the wholeeducation system. Making the dynamics in society but when it comes to creating a sharia type state, i dont think he does that much. Before he came to power he was critical of institutions like the Political Affairs for instance because you are always argued that the on it as we call it in turkish, the on it has always been a chemist tool. On the suppressed religion but also controlled religion. And he promoted getting rid of that institution but he came to power and now its even a bigger the odyssey with a bigger budget. So i think that points to his status instincts. He became a bureaucrat in that regard. I just like to add a few words. I think he does answer to many of islam though and that can be quite dangerous as weve seen it manifested in for instance videos posted of Police Cadets training where they pronounced islam is slogans or the people there training who do the same. And the fact that when the crew was unfolding, he rallied people around religion. You had the imams blaring islamic slogans, making a call for jihad essentially so a lot of instrumentalization of islam, much more so than any of its predecessors clearly. And the other thing that i would point to as a risk is the system and the fact that groups like isis have established Networks Inside turkey and seem to be wreaking havoc at least recruiting with great ease and so thats something that obviously needs to be watched. I have a final word before we conclude, of course i agree with amber and i think that if turkeys neighbors were luxembourg, the netherlands and belgium i would not be worried about that. Turkey has middleclass educated peopleconnected to the world and to luxenberg. How about canada russian mark. Thats not the case. It has been a neighbor for a while but the jihadists next door make turkeys islamization dangerous for turkey because that to me means it becomes a recruiting tool for jihadist ideology and theres a chapter in my book but i wont tell you more about it. I want to take the other question before finishing on foreign enemies. I think that because the polarization of politics will help you win another election, he has to win that one. Because otherwise ill have to do what the french call passion, hes going to be a president and parliament will come under his party and the system is not set up to function like party so that will have a majority controlled by the president and that will collapse so he will have to have a solid majority in the next election and not in the. To get there he has to win elections. Whenever the elections are this year, sometimes fragmenting, foreign enemies is the only way Going Forward so nationalism will drive his agenda. Unified and i think thats really a question about hp and akc agreement comes in. Theyre different parties but i think his base and nhp space in certain areas overlap significantly in turkey. If you look at the map, the area of central and military turkey, where support for erdogan was strong from hp is rare and nhp bases significantly more conservative than other areas but thats why the deal works. I think this is going to be the game Going Forward, is going to consolidate the National System in his strongman image so that means problems with europe and the United States and at least in the short term, a significant problem with the us on the kurdish account. I want to take one final word, i was extremely delighted to see some of these friends and colleagues here today, thank you for coming. Its a great afternoon and this is a great turnout from last year. Youve been great and thank you for bearing with my crazy work hours and is a wonderful project so im happy to launch this book with you and finally before i conclude, i want to thank im a buyer family fellow, theyre working out there and their generosity makes this work. Theyre watching me, hello. And thank you all for coming and ill be out there if you want to buy copies, otherwise we will do more advanced on the book. Great, thank you. Thank you very much, congratulations soner. Thank you very much for joining us today. That was excellent