Region and for security in europe and one syria offensive. Price. Hello and a very warm welcome to the point with the focus on turkeys offensive in Northern Syria im peter craven and my guests. Saida served t. W. Foreign policy editor who says a military operation in syria wont solve your problems out. Also with us is military laming senior contributor. Meltzer argues that the middle east is facing further escalation the loses of the kurds and donald trump. And a very well welcome sir. You know gala an editor in chief of the middle east magazine zen if you believe that everyone has already achieved his political goal but militarily this offensive is very dangerous full. Thank you thank you all for being here today and id like to begin with you say. The long awaited offensive against kurdish positions in Northern Syria has begun as president has wanted is turkey now out war well we can say that a very dangerous phase has started so basically are 2 on once to with this military operation 1st get rid of the why peachey which it considers a terrorist organization affiliated with t. K. Which turkey has been fighting with over decades and at the same time he also wants to create a safe zone where he wants to bring the refugees that are currently living in turkey there are 3500000 Syrian Refugees number huge number and hes saying he wants to bring about 2000000 of these people in the socalled safe zone most women whats your take on why the invasion why now its cold and after all operation peace bring is it a Peace Mission. Definitely not if you asked me why now it is the direct result of a telephone call that one had with the american president on the trump. In which trump promised to pull out as we just heard american troops there so it was regarded as it was meant to be the green light for for going ahead with this operation. Even though the president after that made kind of retreat and saying it should not be a better deal should not be 0 what i would regard offensive all things like that but its very way vague terms like that so its a Peace Mission no i dont think so because i dont think you will could ever fulfill all those goals theres a strong kurdish opponent on that side to resettle a 1000000. 5 or even 2000000 refugees its a task that he wont be able to fulfill. You say the president out of one has already achieved his Political Goals how come there forever we have to explain his political motivation in my analysis. There is a very strong domestic political motivation which is and weve seen this in turkish politics for decades since the p. K. K. The fight with the p. K. Has been going on to always use the conflict the kurdish question in the conflict with the p k k for domestic purposes he has 2 very strong opposition parties against him and recently we have seen a very interesting rapprochement between these 2 political opposition parties in parliament and these parties can agree on many things in particular on the fact that they want to get rid of the other ones government but they can absolutely not agree on the kurdish question in particular the military operation in syria and so we saw the Turkish National assembly the Kemalist Party the Republican Party that they have paid one of his fiercest opponents potential opponent also maybe even the potential in the sense that they might run against him successfully for the next elections they voted for the syria operation to extend is not dead and the h. P. P. Which is a party which is voted by many Kurdish People not Kurdish People alone that many people voted against it. Just this question about one of the president s everyone has got the go ahead for for from President Trump or not does he need it hows he going to whats your take well its really hard to say what kind of a message she got from trump because his tweets are changing daily if not hourly. So you know way he did get the go because. American. Military had to move from certain positions so that the 2 nato countries would not be facing each other in situ in a potential clash so of course that was very very important but at the same time trying to saying no im going to you know crash your economy you cant do this so hes saying he should not cross certain lines ok very mixed messages from the u. S. President there has been one truly astonishing trump from a tweet from among the others here it is with talk about in just a 2nd lets listen in. As i have stated strongly before and just to reiterate if turkey does anything that i in my great and unmatched wisdom consider to be off limits i will totally destroy and obliterate the economy of turkey ive done before i must with europe and others watch over. The course mind boggling stuff say what does it mean with off limits well its really hard to know exactly what he means with off limits but there was information that he does not he wants turkey to Pay Attention to civilians to villages minorities and he wants he doesnt want another humanitarian crisis thats one of the things. Daniel what do you make of the relationship between President Trump and president. I dont think. Im not an expert in reading trump tweets and the language that he uses to be honest i dont think he understand he knows himself what hes up to hes just like this is a spontaneous reaction to criticism is that ok i was still in charge im still what im doing. Obviously i dont promise to have a personal conversation that hes going to take care of the Islamic State detainees of terrorists that everybodys afraid of and trump said ok view the america the europeans are not taking care of you going to do it and this is an easy task for turkey and the most important aspect for trump and that is no surprises he doesnt consider syria a valuable asset and last year he already wanted to withdraw the troops from syria and now its that they would be withdrawn many of his top diplomats and Security Experts resigned over that decision because they were scandalised an outrage but it comes to no surprise to the kurds that american support for them would one day expire now the point is why doesnt he why did he stay for so long after the announcement last year because i think americans realized he himself realized that it. A very inexpensive and cost Efficient Mission to keep a foot in the door to keep a ball in the game and american troops didnt die like in vietnam moneywise the whole mission was somehow ok and it was a very cheap way of somehow keeping leverage so his own advisors kept him in the in the in the game by convincing him that its not very expensive but later on when one of his like top Security Experts. This National Security advisor was kicked out his minister of defense was resigned and eventually trumped to decision but again with all the confusion about it i think to the leadership of the Kurdish Forces it comes to no surprise that americans would betray them one day talk about them just a 2nd month or you want to. I would say it was very very personal decision of his because he didnt consult with anybody not with the state department not with the Defense Ministry not with congress not with allies with nobody so i think it took everybody by surprise and i think it took the kurds by surprise as well because thats why they speak about betrayal and all these things and they really its going to the heart because they were left alone they paid the highest price namely 11000 fighters against us died in the war for the United States gold to get crushed about the i. R. S. So i think it was very very hot what im thinking turkey saying about this well if you look at turkish Mainstream Media you can see kind of celebration off this military operation but if you listen to few what is left of the opposition media then you can see people are serious is causing the issue they are worried that this is going to of course be bad for turkey. They dont see the safe zone as a realistic solution how are you going to move these people are you going to force them to leave turkey and to go to areas probably which they didnt even come from so its theres a big discussion going on in turkey of course how is this going to be financed not just the safe zone but even the military operation how long is it going to go so there are a lot of questions. I think however there is a certain degree of consensus in turkey that such an operation however it is conducted is necessary in order of 2 to pursue goals of national selfdefense now why is this timing from the purely military perspective interesting and maybe why could the could the timing be conducive to the operation to the goals of the operation. Of course the kurdish question of the kurdish resistance in turkey in an atoll the turkish territory would flip but at the moment most of the higher high ranking operatives of the p. K. K. Of the kurdish. Underground its the of the kurdish resistance and now present in syria so i think from a strategic consideration turkey would say lets crush them thats them lets attack them as long as theyre still in syria before their troops and their weapons are moving back in and i think there is another consideration which is or another calculus which i find interesting they are speculating on the fact that could send syria and the population of the north east of syria would become disenchanted frustrated and even angry with the p k k that has come to syria from anatolia from turkey to build up this semi autonomous statelet and after all most importantly the y. P. G. Forces so they had that turkey is trying to drive a wedge between the syrian kurds and the p. K. K. Kurds because of course theyve always brand whats happening in North Eastern syria operation but they know very well and the turkish intelligence. Knows it best that there is a difference between the syrian kurds and the p. K. K. However powerful the p. K. Might be operating and then he can always count on the fact that none of the states occurred to living in iraq iran no torquey no syria is interested state in more autonomy is curtis aspirations ok well lets go by the president had one just for a minute weve talked about its already what is his motivation was driving at this point in time we got the short report before we continue the conversation. Northern syria is largely under the control of the kurdish y. P. G. Peoples Protection Units they and American Forces have long supported one another in their fight against the Islamic State terrorist group but turkish president everyone follows his own agenda he wants to ward off any recognition of the autonomy of his region he labels the kurds terrorists and opposes them. For some time hes been demanding a security zone along turkeys border with syria 30 kilometers wide 480 kilometers long now he plans to resettle some of the nearly 3600000 Syrian Refugees which from turkey. And one has been coming under increasing pressure at home because of the refugees the mood among the turkish people has changed. We want them to get out of here is false as possible we dont want them around us anymore even now more and more refugees are being repatriated to Northern Syria. Is and one security isnt just power politics. Most or just want to come back to the kurds on the question of power they feel very hard done by they feel as though theyve been stabbed in the back a very. Often of the western media theyre presented as the good guys in this story are they the good guys the poor guys say i would say good i mean there are certain elements of the p. K. K. But organizations who use terrorist means to to come to to fulfill someones they are right now the poor guys because they in the way profited from the civil war in syria from from from destabilization in iraq things like this because that gave them the opportunity to finally come close to i wouldnt say state but to autonomy. Kind of governing themselves. And that is that is put in question. If they can hold these things twitter stand on your my side lets come back to the point were often told that the kurds have democratic structures equal rights between men and women better schooling and all these kind of things you smiling yeah because its so particular in germany of course this is often a mantra size and if we look at the regional context if you look at the other countries around and the way the states are managed you can say ok. This standards are pretty low so notwithstanding the p y d p k k and these codes organizations are far from being democratic though they use the word democratic a lot for of for for self marketing self at the thais know because they think that this is actually the implementation of democracy you know this is the basic ideology is a leftist extremist. Pockley maoist stalinist influenced ideology that is far from being democratic that is even ruling in a very author terry in a way even though it differs from continent to continent from region to region of course they have been trying to involve all the other groups but human rights record of the of the people id is. A disaster but again you can think of the ones who pulled the main brown to come back saying you know youre something of a womans who are now holding our us in custody and they say they no longer will we have a very big problem and people refer to them and people say ok if we look at whats whats around us if we look at the assad regime for example then probably this people idea rule is not the worst of all options on the other hand theres also many Kurdish People that suffer from it there is a lot of arab tribes that are very frustrated with this with the rule of the people id and even i think inside the people at the structures there is many who understand that this experiment doesnt really work and however. Western governments and the United States in particular have created false expectations and they have said lets build up something new an alternative to the assad regime lets build something with what we have there and lets see that life in syria is possible we can build up something and this is also one of the reasons by the way why keen to crush this experiment because it should not however i dont think its going to be a success but it should be of the risk that it could be a success must must be totally eliminated and then he has other countries in the region other governments in the region notably the Syrian Government that she has you so. And suzanne how worried are you about a possible resurgence of Islamic State in the region well of course the u. S. Is already except trump of christianes this warning and also the e. U. Is warning that if y. P. G. Has to take its fighters away from these camps that isis fighters are being held that the y. P. G. s guarding right now theres a high possibility that these camps will be freed somehow and theres a big probability that isis fighters will be on the on the loose and sulking about tens of thousands of people and supporters yes we are also talking about their families women and children but we should not think of them as innocent families because theyve also been radicalized so its a its a big mess which if trump will stick to his word and say well ok are gone and the e. U. Now has to take care of their. Areas in the in the middle east then its a big problem for everyone its a big headache for everyone sort of irony because i mean the kurds by and large have been a reliable partner of the west especially in the United States in the fight against the house and they they were successful in crushing the i asked since march i would say. And so President Trump is always saying that this is one of his big successes that he together with the kurds trying to crush the yes though his green with. The kurds lost 11000 falling to the americans we dont know. But it was the kind of 2 as i said earlier bore the brunt of the fighting. And so thats the part of the bitter irony that now that bites back in the. B. B. Trait of course others in the region would say yes and they were the most efficient power in fighting the Islamic State and the other had the presence of the socalled Islamic State was the reason why they succeeded in building this autonomous stable because otherwise they would never have received such as to mental International Support and this is an argument that of course made a lot of turkish sources you see that. All sides in this conflict are accusing each other of being the main profiteer from the presence of the Islamic State and in a way this is one of the reasons why these jihadist organizations always research because one side is always believing that they might hurt the other one more than they actually hurt me and this is a 0 sum game thats been going on and many many powers in the region were part of it and certain what about these mussy for Resettlement Program that appears to be part of president calderons plans as many as 2000000 people being removed from refugee camps in turkey back to syria regardless of where they came from originally its. A project of turkey and. Dimensions almost well we know that turkey has already sent some people back to syria not to this current zone but to so some people are said to have gone on their own willingly some are said to be forced to go back to syria but were talking about the current safe zone what one at the moment is talking about is about 220 kilometers long 30 to 32 kilometers deep safe zone so when you look at it in that sense it does not cover too well to the end points to closer to the iraq border then you see where the i ask camps are so right now trying to keep it in a smaller area if you will but exactly how he wants to send these people over who are these people of course this is creating a certain insecurity in Syrian Refugees living in turkey its going to be its never going to go to work and its actually a typical example of hybris of a middle Eastern Power that believes the deportation policy can work it is against all International Conventions where conventions to deport ethnic groups from or to a region of war and this security or safety zone that he wants. Established contains all the major cities and the major strategic and economic assets of the region so by no way the kurdish militias the by p. G. Of the people id code to sit there and let them do this there is another historical implication which i find very important to mention which also understands the trauma of people in the region the cities that were talking about obviously or us ally in where the turkish troops have been operating now these are partly originated in the Armenian Genocide they are there because of a big ottoman project to exterminate and entire nation christian people from from the displaced christian people from the tolly a settled there and founded some of these towns and build up the culture in this region now to have the turkish government say were going to resettle a certain number of Syrian Refugees there were going to build houses and gardens for them sounds cynical and also of course brings back a lot of the trauma that our president down to one of these points in time has metaphorically back to the war on refugee policy within turkey itself so there is a real incentive for him to make this scheme work and perhaps use the leverage the house with European Countries like germany to get them to. Become Financial Support well thats what he wants of course hes already called on to help him and and yes there is the turkey e. U. Deal but of course all of the e. U. Countries are extremely skeptical if not against the safe zone theyve already said they want turkey to stop the military operations but at the same time at the moment i dont see anyone in the e. U. Investing so what i dont want because whos going to finance. Well im not so sure about that whos going to do is going to invest in these areas whos going to live there it has to be there has to be. You know according to. International incident turned around has frightened to open the floodgates for as he puts it some open the gates as he said it more neutrally for a few jews moving to europe and that could intensify and he did that of course it could intensify of course there should be a plan for each and turkish to sit down and think of a plan how they want to take care of this the refugee crisis but that does not automatically mean that he is going to say ok well we agree and this inhumane way of finding a solution moving people to maybe even where they dont belong its a very complex issue we cant just say ok now you has to be on board with this but whats clear i think is with the e. U. Turkey deal the Financial Support that you gave is supposed to end at the end of this year which of course the payments are going to continue until end of 2020 but i think also fred once important to see that he will get support for refugees inside of turkey as well so thats another thing i dont think much of it very much of use president promised mexico will pay for the ball and mexico doesnt pay for the wall so there is this this agreement between the European Union and turkey concerning refugees and both sides are. By and large keeping this agreement intact you pays billions of money and turkey with some exceptions. Let the refugees cross the border to be in union but but the Resettlement Program is not part of the agreement so the e. U. Is not obliged to pay for the vote. The final word were running out of time slowly yeah i think you know out on has been has been in the region in the business for much longer than trump so i think hes a bit more serious with his projects but i dont think hes as naive as thinking that this is just you know he can really implement this big refugee plan i think its a way of trying to talk to market his idea and he does that successfully however i think we have to take the sea of the refugee issue in turkey seriously we have to or not lecture the turks all the time telling them how to deal with refugees that doesnt mean that we dont control opinion but we should just understand that it is a serious issue and we should also not lecture the cas on the human rights records because i think also it is a serious issue they find themselves in and then we can implement our policies much better when were trying to get down from the moral high ground and to the point today be looking a very very incursion by turkey into Northern Syria i hope we can you can do you think those are some companies we can someone by by choice. Of a. Be in good shape 1st they can save lives. In which unseen can aid us anywhere on the highway and a rock concert and its very hard to beat it out. Once the best way to treat someone whos been hurt we tell you how. Good shape 30 minutes. A duel with words. Where i come from we dont want a way from a call from taisha. When i was 5 years old my father took me to his fences and i was hooked on the spokes of. A sport that few months sold into a soul. Fencing as a language and a good source for it is a conversation. Must be your opponent on the stand that i think you knew of a man to get close otherwise consecrates. Its not unlike a tough interview really 20 viewing politicians all corporate c. E. O. s you have to wait for the right moment just to get around that defensiveness then make your own fear. Yes you take risks to get results. Ive got alphas and i work i do doesnt. Lead. To the book you are now in the world you can learn from the local me flew the coop exposing injustice global news that matters to me for months the luckiest time to take months to play and play time here on just such steel plate and the fine for the translate. To overcome trends and to come here to complain that its time to work. And you dont really use coming up ahead. Mines the odd. Place blame. Your news life for letting the Prime Minister of ethiopia win some Nobel Peace Prize ill be on that has been recognized for his initiative and dissolving the border conflict with neighboring eritrea the 2 countries resort relations in july last year after many years of hostile. Also coming up a circus forces of bassem to syria for a 3rd