Transcripts For ESPRESO 20240703

That war can, this seems to me to be a very important factor, and no, well, they said yes , the representatives of the Member States of gsaven really are discussing their budgets to count on their rates of arms supply but the one expected by 2032 will happen but the thing is that there is a feeling that it will be a really long war and it will really be a war of attrition and obviously there are such things i think that here during this meeting with biden clearly the president the issue of security guarantees was raised because this is something that can help us receive stable aid regardless of who will be sitting in the oval office next fall, and this is the question that the president strategically asked himself in order to get an answer to this question and we need to sign these agreements these agreements before entering the active phase of the Election Campaign in the United States. By the way, one of the american politicians recently said that if for 5 of our gdp we can destroy the worlds second largest army, then this is simply incredible small costs compared to the benefits that it brings for money, yes , justice is incredible, just uh, the next moment is the conversion to people, the maximum of ukraine is much less people, well, in general , i have a question about the United States of america are they measuring or are they doing some kind of analysis . In this regard, and because well, we understand that strikes on the Energy Infrastructure are a hard winter, they can turn the opinion of the population 180, and it will be very difficult for ukrainians this winter and they are already warning about it well so that later they dont talk and we are not warned, we warn that it will not be easy for us, we will have to gather a lot of strength, patience and such strength of spirit to get through this winter. The fact is that if you look at the warehouses from that next tranche of military aid from the United States, it is precisely aimed at antiaircraft Defense System for missiles to antiaircraft Defense Systems, in contrast to the fact that we expected there to be some kind of offensive weapon, but they are already counting on the fact that the lady wasps lentil should be nearing completion. It is necessary to prepare for winter, but the masters sense of the game says that now the most important thing is that we have to give this is peru , all the others are putin yes, this is a key need , and it seems to me that the americans are at the level of the pentagons think tanks. They are researching what is most needed. Right here and now in ukraine and now if there is no potential to quickly liberate the territory, at least you need to defend yourself, but i dont have the feeling that someone is leaning towards victory, because if they were populated before the negotiations, it is unlikely that we would get the f16 planes that are being talked about now next spring we need them first of all for the offensive, so for me this is actually the main symbol of the fact that they are counting on the next stage of the ukrainian counteroffensive already starting from, well, next year, i have a slightly different point of view sensei, what exactly is the provision of weapons for the future, here is a small batch of attack f 16 no today, but tomorrow it is just such and such a preventive warning to the russians , for now, help for advances and for the future, so far, it is not realistic to help now, but a warning to the russians, or you refuse to plans to prolong the war for another year and a half before the us elections and come to an agreement, sit down at the negotiating table, otherwise we will give weapons to the ukrainians. This is how i interpreted these signals , but on the other hand, there is a feeling that the war is being prolonged, and it affects Strategic Development is another thing, but according to my observations, you are talking about the analysts there about the reports, but i have not yet read them, i only received the ee version of the corporation, another analytical report on the war of russia against ukraine, but i already see different opinions, different assessments, there is also a skazhem yes, optimists and pessimists. Yes, there is also pluralism regarding zelenskyis negotiations with biden, but in the context that we are discussing, i would like to draw attention to one important detail of the agreement that has been announced so far informally about joint defense production. That is why it is important why for formal disclosure yes, it was there, various things are listed, i mean the first well, i somewhat disagree with my colleague about the security guarantee, no one promises us a security guarantee and will not give it. I mean, within the framework of the socalled agreements, only the ukrainian authorities call it a security guarantee in in the statement of the family group, this means a bitter heart and an Agreement Regarding the matter. According to the results of the negotiations that something specific was agreed upon, it is not said about which systems, most likely , i think so, most likely it will be ammunition, it will also be Armored Vehicles , other things for ground warfare are possible, i am wrong, since it is possible for the ppu, yes, and if the ammunition is already for the last hour what about air defense was also the defense well, while we were still sitting, he simply listed what they give us, they are strengthening us now and this air defense is key and but there was actually a separate one but this is definitely a positive thing of market withdrawal will be signed in the near future because it is quite an opportunity then it must be signed because it is also Technology Protection of technologies other specific things then contracts with the relevant manufacturers its not they dont have ukroboronprom yet yes that is, in principle you work there a little differently and then thats all, everything else. Well, of course, there will be a question again about additional antiaircraft defense, because this is about power, we need to protect the metal in some way , he said that we will protect ourselves, you dont worry about us when you have little time for the russians they started to threaten then, and the production should be on the territory of ukraine, now they wont talk about it because this issue is very delicate, why give it to the regime itself, she pushed it, after all, i think listen, look in the depths of the ukrainian bathhouse. Yes , yes, zelensky is no longer interested in what is the production and by the way, in the interview with you, yes, what about the production that will be on the territory of ukraine, just about the agreement that was announced at the meeting with biden, why is it important for comparison, the 21st year, when zelensky first came to the white house and signed the agreement, the morning agreement, about the defense, about the defense, our cooperation was wanted for the morning, but the real agreement, the americans were not ready, and the question was well, according to some sources , what our sources wanted to negotiate, in particular, about Defense Joint defense production, the americans said no, they were not ready. Well, there are some sources they say they are familiar with the reality that the americans always have such a position buy from us buy from us why produce you pay then it is american i think no but now it took one and a half years of war and why yes and because, like the poles, selfish economic interests are in the first place, but the most important thing is nothing else, lets look at biden, the eve of the invasion and the first there are literally weeks of return, they understand they perceived that ukraine is not able to defend itself vishich and thats why stingers are very cool and javelins are very cool, then when they saw that we didnt fall apart , we didnt disperse yes, and they really like the really classic phrase in the textbooks will be that i need cartridges ani theres a taxi thats then quietly they started i call it they overcame their consciousness of the red line, which they drew, do you remember that the germans did not give us helmets, because it will be a red line, then there will be leopards. So now we already have 16. That is, this is the understanding that ukraine is capable of this, this is the first moment, the second that there is no turning back and russia cannot escalate, but now we have struck sevastopol, well, we have actually destroyed the control centers of the black union there, what will be the reaction, of course they will hit our peaceful cities, they cannot do anything on the battlefield, they do not have a wunderwaffe to strike a blow there at the bank, conditionally speaking, yes, that is, they cannot do anything, the only escalation can be a red button, but there will be consequences, and of course they are, that is, Nuclear Deterrence works, and this is the most important thing, but actually, what do we have to convince our friends in front of all the americans that we do not have these red lines. And by the way, the red lines do not end with our state border in the east. That is, we have the weapons that we have the ability to strike at the russian territory and it will not be an escalation and a conflict with the United States, because otherwise the next war will still be on our territory, how can we deter russia . If we have the opportunity to have ukrainian missiles only on our territory, we have the full right to the nose, and then the advice of the americans is that it is not possible american weapons are needed for that. North korea was able to do it in the system , iran was able to do it under sanctions, and this is the most important thing for us. Long ago, yes, that is, the russians violated it and trump withdrew from all the agreements. And this agreement also limited us, and now we do not have such a limitation. That is, we can build missiles of this class , and this is exactly what we need so that we can strike the daural mountains, and it will be a weapon of deterrence, it wont be there tomorrow, but from the resources we have, we can inflict certain blows on the cruiser moscow actually, well, recently, only what were there. That is, we can do it and we must do it, because there will be solarpolitical restrictions of the United States and therefore also on other partners who will provide us with help but it seems to me that despite all this, ukraine, with its efforts , cannot launch longrange missiles into mass production, unfortunately natalya says about gunpowder, we do not even have enterprises that produce these things, and our western colleagues do not the fact that they will agree to provide us with er, lets say the details, all this mechanics and technology and similar things, so it seems that it is the technology we have we do not have the technical capabilities to produce the same substance , we calculated that we cannot produce it well in principle, within the framework of this agreement, we are once again returning to the obama administration, a complete halt in all Foreign Policy directions and a de facto embargo on the arms of ukraine , including dualuse goods and Machine Tools that we need, the same from germany was the usual ms. Merkel says a big lie that she wanted to give ukraine time to prepare, not a single cartridge was given to us, how could we prepare for this before this war yes and actually now it is overflowing no no not de facto not de jure blockades, including i have access to at least the machines and the equipment we need. So what should we do in general . I think that we show ingenuity in the way that we can install commercial products from drones to others. I think that this is not a big, big, big problem with this, we need to develop those technologies that we lack. Moreover, we can also have others ways to access such technologies, well, only in the United States , for a minute, we have to think strategically and not even think about how we produce weapons during this war, but think much ahead and in connection with this issue, you named examples iran and how they produce and i want to take the example of israel as a reference. When they say that israel has never once implemented the decisions of the United Nations and says that if Nuclear Weapons are needed, we will find them there. I understand that we can there is so hype and repeating the examples of israel, but can we really get Nuclear Weapons as they will get them in one night . Is ukraine limited, for example, to the use of missiles of such a range or to the use of certain means or aircraft, or in other words , will they do to us what they did to us in the 90s , when our army was slaughtered, when our army was slaughtered metal, our tank factories, our planes, when the pilots had tears flowing and the pilots mourned every machine that was cut during the time of president kuchma and then the president was already cut, why should ukraine be in nato, because then all our actions will be synchronized with our allied future allies, otherwise then they cannot to count on the fact that we are in our national interests. And if the poles were so convinced that the fifth article is being acted upon, do you think they are spending so much of their budget on the Defense Industry in they are in fact an arms race in the field, and this is correct, because you know that russia is a country that attacks the weak, it never attacks the powerful countries, and if you want peace, prepare for war, the poles are actually doing it very correctly, so they have apprehensions and they looked at how the germans behaved. The germans are of course a great progress. Moreover, the social democrats are traditionally committed to crime. 60 are subject to participation , but still, that is, the decision is made by the chancellor. Of course, the poles are being bullied by this scandalous plan, which they do not know. How realistic is it that they actually had to give up 40 of their own territory before trying again yes or imagine and by the way , this is one of the reasons why the baltic countries were nervous because the same thing happened in the 16th year. That literally in two days the baltic will be occupied and then an additional force will be needed to liberate imagine what will happen to that unfortunate Baltic Baltic consort if mariupol is there, which means volnovakh and bakhmuts, of course, that is, the poles they are doing absolutely right and look at what they are buying and not buying the americans, well, we remember the ford tramp. They wanted to build, that is, drag the americans in, and secondly, they are bringing south korea here, first of all , they have hightech things, we will be in loans and in debt, precisely because of these agreements and that means reassurance, er, i avoid the question of guarantees, since no one will give guarantees there, it is a Nuclear State that is still fighting against us, and guarantees can only be within the framework of a Security Agreement with the United States or nato, or jointly, precisely because we are not israelis. We will not become israel is under such an umbrella and there are no restrictions in terms of the supply of technology and how they can be used. Countries, but they cant say anything except public condemnation of that. Actually, speaking of what we can do, we have been given such a tool. This is the statement of the group of seven, these are the morning agreements that will prepare us for of the future and constantly from the first day rammstein eh austin says the secretary austin says that we are here to help now on the battlefield to achieve an effect and also in the future, that is, they are not going to reset us extremely there may be problems if they choose the third number on the list of the republicans, uh, so this is it, well, i hope that the americans will understand that this is an empty matter and the Landing Force is silent, he realized that he made a mistake, he once said that he made a statement, then the documents are another question, that is, he can throw it there with hugging putin, but this may not be the case either, because it is the other way around. Yes, it may be the other way around, because he is not foreseen, she is a person, of course we do not want that, but this is theoretical, theoretically, it can be, and that is why such an agreement is important. Although, of course , any president can regulate them. Well, you know how much there are the same requirements. So there were several draft laws on the recognition by russia of an athlete of ukraine in terrorism, the administration does not want to go for it for good reasons, and then there are sanctions for other things, they do not do it because the executive power and the executive power. So we all the same, we have to go with this push. But the europeans are the same slow germans, and subsidization took place and they understand the importance of Central Eastern europe and they will slowly but systematically be there until 2030 , some year there and then 40, they will help us create this potential to contain russia so im more or less optimistic here, but everything depends on the success of our historical about germany, one of the reasons for such a nervous reaction of some polish politicians not so much to ukraine but to strengthen cooperation between in germany and ukraine, some polish politicians mention this very topic , well, by the way, even such problems reflect that when this exacerbation occurred, it should be removed , but this is the topic. Well, it happens to them during the research, its normal, yes, such an old play is not mentioned. Well, its an english play, but its still in soviet theaters , yes, the armor is worn its only teshentsy, yes, but i want to, what about your question about the 90s . Unique, i think no, then it was a completely different situation, i will remind you then we didnt just cut down planes, we gave away some missiles, planes are now used against us yes, strategically , yes, well, strategic bombers too, unfortunately , yes, and even then the usa saw the main threat not in russia at that time, giltsen had friendship and very good relations with clients and, well, in general, between russia and the United States, they saw a threat in other postsoviet regimes, which they considered unstable regimes that can develop democratically , so there may be weapons to go somewhere there terrorists and so on, we fed ourselves yes, but the situation was different now, i think that a certain and not certain significant overestimation of value happened, another thing happened. Thats why im a little afraid about that. Well, we use the term security guarantee. Yes, but in fact it is about the provision of that support they dont give us what can happen before signing an agreement about the same conditional security guarantees for us, this agreement can be tied to an agreement on the cessation of hostilities, it is possible to force us to disarm, no, i think so it wont be, but if only, well, lets just say so, there will be agreement on this from various parties. And the question can be raised, for example, about demilitarization along the borders of the border and not only ours, but also the russians. I am not sure that they will agree to this, and we are unlikely to agree to this. We will also agree, but such proposals can be studied completely with us. So, and in relation to this , the odessa conversation about the socalled security guarantees. Well, it seems to me that the guarantee can be in the financial aspect, and when we receive a guarantee for some money from our partners in this other this is, well, i would say that this is the deterrence guarantees of some there. That is, it is the deterrence tools , yes, in the statement, yes, in the statement of the group of seven. It was about the fact that we will be with ukraine again as long as we need and want to do everything in order to prevent repeated attacks from russia on ukraine, that is, they have already conceptually laid down in this document the understanding that the dismantling of this putin regime will not take place even if putin disappears from the political scene anyway political russia will remain in the configuration it is in. And this is the first important moment regarding these security guarantees , that is, they already understand that the end of such a war once and for all will not happen. As for this disarmament that we are talking about, it seems to me that this is a key issue of trust in things, during this event in the United States, yarmak went out in a marathon and said that there was a lot of praise for the trust trust from the United States and ukraine, and so that, potentially, after the end of this war, we would have the opportunity and to use weapons and to manufacture them must be trust, that is, they must take us as their own, they must understand that we will definitely not take any radical steps that will be unpredictable both for the United States and for the european union, as exminister of defense varshikov has already said that he dozens of times signed various documents in which he simply assured our colleagues from abroad that we will not hit them with missiles that they give on the territory of russia or at some other points that we consider necessary, so here it is necessary pass this moment of mistrust, which is still present in us despite the fact that we show the insane effectiveness of using this weapon , not a single sample got into the hands of the russians through some black markets, so the weapons that we receive from our partners tried to throw away absolutely this was not confirmed e in general, then the commissions that now come to ukraine every time, every time do not see any problems with the use of weapons , that is, building strategically from this trust, it is very important, moreover, ukrainian officials the president recently, the speaker of the parliament of the eu stated that ukraine should become a security donor for the world because the experience we have now during this war , the United States does not have it, the United States does not have it in the european union, therefore, after that, from the military militia and from the possibility the use of these weapons will also depend to a large extent on the security of the european continent, so it seems to me that these things are deeply intertwined here, but the key is to build trust so that we are accepted as a fullfledged partner and the smallest brother or sister who are now is fighting after that, it will be necessary to deal with him, but the construction of joint Defense Enterprises on the territory of ukraine will strengthen this trust, and it seems to me absolutely , i am already talking about we have heard in addition to the United States, the conversation has already started about the swedes, even during the last visit, where we spoke with the leader of sweden, it is stated about what we are going to do with them armored infantry vehicles in ukraine and create with poland they already exist in a certain form , it seems to me that the question here is simple and the turks what about hightech types of weapons now we are talking, that is, conventionally speaking, missiles for 1,0001,500 km are unlikely to be manufactured here until they are absolutely sure that we are playing by the same rules of the game, listen, well, at the meeting with president biden, i am sure, they definitely talked about reforms, they talked about the struggle with corruption and the rest of the things, i. E. Today we collectivize the event that today the collective event tries to lead us into those rules of the game in which we cannot simply leave or we work as the civilized world works or we forget about all those things about which we now fantasize, and they have no less than ours, how are they stealing todays story, who is a senator or a congressman, who is being billed for corruption today , so yes, well, they are in nato, and it seems to me that there is no need to idealize them either, and there are enough problems listen to her everywhere but how in america sometimes politics is implemented, well, you look at the Verkhovna Rada as a beacon of democracy in the world, sometimes this happens , well, of course, the audience on the other side of the screen laughed. Death is not written by the country, continuing the thousandyear tradition of statebuilding in ukraine, to proclaim ukraine an independent Democratic State on august 24, 1991 , the knights themselves, the great god, do not forget. Like children, like a mother. I have more or less everything , well, almost. Of course, at home, of course, insomnia, and in no case do not feel it, because the strength is here within us and in those who are close to us. We will overcome everything necessary, i also remember the first week. I seemed to preserve myself and lived only work , everything that brought me joy somehow happened to him, then the enemy started shelling our cities and our power system, we became days without light, communication and heat, i began to go on the air and explain ukrainians, what is happening and what will happen next, for a moment i remembered my old hobby of photography, because no matter what the crisis is, we must leave time for ourselves to be happy here and now, if you want to learn how to help yourself and others, go to the how website are you. Com we continue the topic, we discuss the events of this week and discuss the impact of what happened in washington , new york on the russianukrainian war, and it seems important to me to discuss, you know , what other issues are the initiatives of president zelensky , which were heard at the United Nations when he said that this organization should be reformatted, it no longer meets the challenges, this is the first thing i would like to discuss or not, this is the second thing i would like to discuss , lets talk about ourselves and what flew , so to speak, on the wing of the president ial plane together with him, washington is an article in remind me so that i am not mistaken. This is an article in reuters and what about corruption related to the ukrainian authorities, as it was written with reference to the director of the ukrbud and the rather scandalous Construction Company firm means er. And which er, the head of which is listed in vienna is hiding, but reuters nevertheless referred to his such testimony and his mentions of how corruption is organized. Flew on the wing as i call well, ill tell you so frankly uh without referring to sources a but different people say that its really not a coincidence that some people in the United States, in the states, its not. Im not saying that theres a white house or someone there, yes, but there are people there who consciously work to make sure that, lets say , to put our president in a framework so that he does not allow himself to do too much, that he is not too active , so that, lets say, there are deterrent factors. This conspiracy theory, i cannot prove it, but unfortunately, sometimes such tools work in politics, and with regard to the publication in reuters, i so i guess even there who it is