Pretty darn hard to refute that tide of public sentiment this carefully bullying of a case democrats can ignore deny all they want. Cheryl rfk, jr. , jump up in polls 14, 0 against incumbent president in his own party, that is surprising. All right. Next hour of mornings with maria starts right now. I am Cheryl Casone for maria bartiromo, monday, not tuesday it is monday, july, top stories earn time feels tuesday markets gearing up for a blockbuster week earnings Economic Data another s fed decision on tap tomorrow first day of Federal Reserve twoday meeting right now markets participants expect a quarter point rate hike after last months pause, the fed will also get on inflation this week june pce coming up durable goods, the first read on Second Quarter gdp. Later in the week that is going to be a big one, tech on deck some biggest market stars are the reporting secondquarter earnings meta amazon microsoft, alphabet all about a. I. , european markets, as you can see, right here they are now in the red mixed earlier ftse, cac 40 all negative in, asia overnight mixed story there nikkei japan nearly one and a quarter prns hang seng in hong kong down better than 2 , we are just weeks away from the first gop president ial dean on fox, seven candidates meeting requirements to take the stage fox business polls show former President Trump, with commanding lead any away South Carolina, maria asked minimum why best choice for independents on sunday morning futures. What is the most important issue about your policy and your leadership that you want independents to understand. Security for our nation they want security they want safety. You are going to close the border, we are going to create the greatest economy, were going to become energyindependent, nj price going down take being inflation down. Cheryl . Frr kicking off policy meeting pricing in 25 basis points right hike this minithe question is what happens after that, big week he con data june durable goods first read Second Quarter gdp, pce coming up joining me t. J. And Institutional Services director james i oria first what are you expecting, biggest piece of data that we are going to get is it the fed is it the powell speech, comments, durable goods pce . What with are you watching. I think pce, just i mean just has terrible we got to know what he is going to weve heard 25 basis points, going to leave the door open, by the way, i think a tremendous mistake i think lag, in effect, of rate hikes we havent seen really felt yet i think rates probably above level we consider restrictive right now, i think [line noise interference]. We are having trouble hearing you to be clear. Your connection a little choppy hold on we will bring in mike lee get his voice fixed there, mike jump in obviously, just about to talk about Technology Earnings coming out this week, obviously, fed big story, a question i gave to him as he fixes audio what is it going to be. Michael look. A everybody including myself thought we would be in a recession right now, somehow were not there this is most historic, fed rate regulates cycle in if early 80s raised greater from zero to 5 1 2 less than two years nothing like that on portional basis done how not in recession right now jim was making gie. Seen him make this argument the lag effect, from rate hikes havent kicked in fed should have been been down hikes ago let work do the way because of shelter component, of the inflation calculation. Cheryl body yes dramatically just because of of lags in that, so, you know from from there then inverted yield curve so what yield curve looks at, the two, 30s probably 70, or 80 base vertdz, what is the average when negative implying there is going to be a recession some point, almost imminent what bond market is predicting right now, why havent we seen it . I dont know may be so much liquidity 8 trillion dollars in economy, maybe should you just never underestimate the consumer in america, maybe as dan has been saying ai trend is like a 1995 moment with internet, or apple iphone. Cheryl jim i understand your back respond to that if you can. I think mike hit on something really, really important extra money pumped into the economy he said 8 trillion lets thumbnail say the o money supply since 2008, you know huge, so, of the 8 trillion that was put in, lets say theres three trillion extra dollars of liquidity in the market i think that is keeping out a recession that is keeping Prices Higher we seem seeing hold out as quickly as we thought when rate, usually 12 to 4 months recession starts we are about a year into it clearly in that window i am on recession island i think coming through the fed will pivot. Recession island sounds like a good game. [laughter] okay, on to oil, i point out we havent seen talked about this Goldman Sachs projecting alltime high demand in oil globally, saying in note that is equal sizable deserts going to take brent to 86 bucks maybe by end of the year going to boost up wti as well secondaryly what us do. I think crude was depressed we believed recession coming pushed back, crude to head up, if above 80 heads higher now if thing people are missing i think is that i think opec is kind of irtaitsdz with u. S. For selling if last year and a half what probably political reasons product they sell dont like one of the allies pushing the price down i think could cut production as prices start to rally, the potential is there for kind of perfect storm for crude to head back toward high 90s. Cheryl we havent seen gone into to your point i am going to say political reasons question about talking about we will see you next time. All right. Coming up we are just 30 days away, 30 days from the first republican president ial debate will the candidate leading in all polls be there . To participate on that stage . You are watching mornings with maria live on fox business. You need to be you need to be i was told my Small Business wouldnt qualify for an erc tax refund. You should get a Second Opinion from Innovation Refunds at no upfront cost. Sometimes you need a Second Opinion. [coughs] good to go. Yeah, i think ill get a Second Opinion. All these walls gotta go ah ah ah id love a Second Opinion. No. Im going to get a Second Opinion. With Innovation Refunds, theres no upfront cost to find out. So why not check like i did for my Small Business . Take the first step to see if your Small Business qualifies for the erc. Inverted the inverted the invert first republican president ial debate less than a month awaive, on 23rd in milwaukee wisconsin hosted by fox news, seven candidates have met both polling fundraising for first database President Trump ron Desantis Vivek vivek, tim scott former Vice President mike pence o former u. N. Ambassador nikki haley shg and new Jersey Governor Chris Christie all a qualified, President Trump, telling maria on sunday morning futures, why he is the right candidate for the gop in 2024 watch this. What is the most important issue about your policy and your leadership that you want independents to understand. Security for our nation number one that is very important issue for independents and for women, they want security they want safety, we are going to close the border going to get rid of all criminals that have been allowed to come into our country that are causing tremendous problem and privity that are going to cause problem problems many years creating the greatest economy energyindependent Energy Prices going way down going to take inflation down. Cheryl lets talking about this, the walsh when candidates take stage going to be about wallet economy failure of bidenomics. Liz why president is touting bidenomics hoping people wont notice of price is up 30 since he got elected the advantage President Trump has you can he can talk about economy he created talk about the fact Consumer Confidence all those polls about, the country going in right direction, were incredibly strong when he was president and they immediately torpedoed, with President Biden trump has a lot of advantageous i think going into think think will show up on that stage because yes he has, everything to lose in a sense because has such a tremendous advantage he loves limelight he wants to get up there if he talks the way he did in that interview, about good Economic Policy good security policies, he is not only going to win the nomination will win the election. Cheryl we found out on fox business polls republicans are saying, primary voters are saying very, very important, South Carolina we need somebody can beat President Biden in general the wall street journal talking about it over the weekend youve got to to look to general got to be on table now but back to bidenomics i ask about this what wall street journal writes basically voters are not buying bidenomics, they the main albatross for this president inflation, high prices turned Economic Issues that could have been tailwind for reelection, into a headwind. Look, the Biden Administration, is has done everything they possibly can, to drive Prices Higher other than draining Strategic Petroleum reserve only political reasons, bidenomics more they talk about it more laughable talking point for the liberal media echo chamber, half democrats i believe critically insane, to delude themselves. Take back to general election only one candidate that can beat any democratic nominee that is donald trump. He is the single most popular republican in history of the party to suggest another candidate has better chance is laughable, not backed by any fact or reason or logic up to 20 voters will simply not turn up vote if he is not on ballot he is one man turnon machine democrats donors are busy take potshots at joe biden out there spending hundreds of millions of dollars building voter turn out operations get out the vote operations so that every single possible person could humanly vote democrat votes get that counted, the next election democrat or nominee north will 80 million votes infrastructure built instead the republicans are funding all other candidates in attempt, to try to take out donald trump, so far has been extraordinarily unsuccessful. Cheryl or could you say there is a group of candidates want to be president i think fair look. Anybody can run for president , there is several candidates tim scott, nikki haley, Chris Christie, they are saying i want my shot at being president they want chance i think that is fair that is why were going to have this debate with all candidates on the stage, whether or not donald trump shows up, dont know we shall see, but this is why we have, an he electoral process why next vivek vivek people were counting him out jumping up in polls it is earl. Liz another issue they are supposed to guarantee they will support the he convenientual republican nominee interesting thorny question Chris Christie the deflectedoff that a lot said not quite sure to mikes point if republicans have a shot everybody has to be onboard, everyone has to be onboard whether donald trump as nominee or desantis, or ramaswamy everybody has to get out there mike would i disagree with a little bit on trump a analysis unfacials are very, very high a good portion of United States that hates donald trump, democrats and some independents, that doesnt mean he cant change their view it doesnt mean that four years of bidenomics hasnt changes their view i think it has to some degree but that is why people are skeptical about a donald trump victory, to your point, i would say the most telling thing that happens recently is the polling. Donald trump never was ahead of joe biden, in the 2020 election. Not once. And no i he is on a lot of polls. Sentiment shifting, that is a big deal. Cheryl we are going to leave it there great discussion guys coming up, lets go back to another issue, that is probably haunting excuse me current president hunter biden business pattern expected to testify on capitol hill this week, devon archer could this intensify calls to beach our current president was a Border Patrol retaliated against, August August pfluger is go to join us next. Intensify cheryl House Republicans on oversight Homeland Security committees investigating possible retaliation charges against Border Patrol official a whistleblower says this happened after he testified, in front of two committees the committeechair borrowed protection say whistleblower indicated pattern consistent with common practice to get rid of problematic, forcing to relocate retire or resign bring in texas congressman August Pfluger member Homeland Security. Great to have you on set lets talk about the potential retaliation against the official Border Patrol agents they are texans suffering, at the border one brave enough to say things are bad there boom he is resigned. What is happening we knowe know a crisis Biden Administration is completely ignored this situation, thousands of migrants come across chaos fentanyl human trafficking, but what is worse to think chief would actually retaliate his administration would retaliate against somebody trying to do the right thing, implement policies to keep our country safe, that really is to me a disgusting thought, we are going to get to the bottom of it something American Public is demanding right now. Cheryl Governor Abbott is being criticized for the floating a bizarre what do you. Governor abbott has to do something federal government is doing nothing, when you look at constitutional to protect and defend this country our borders that is a federal issue, theyve abdicated that mayorkas testified saying border is secure we know it is not the governor of texas other, by the way, having to take measures in order to actually stand in the gap protect our country. Cheryl why doesnt Biden Administration ignore what is happening where is she . Last time went to border town to see day tragedy you no they talk about, this term about having empathy, being, welcoming, what they are doing is actually putting young girls young boys in human traffickers hands, it is a tragedy. Hundreds of people have tied trying to get into country illegally drowning in rio grande, stuff, we have read in not editorially i have read recently that whereas texas border people are repelling people trying to get into the country, Border Patrol, the federal people, are allowing them to come in even encouraging them to come in have you got any sense of that . And how can we change that . That seems absurd to me. You snow it is part of the administrations he efforts to basically process people. Liz there are not they are coming in. Mentality sign up for apps do what administration has gone to a loophole makes it he is essier. Cheryl Miranda Devine reporting devon archer expected to testify on capitol hill, he says hunter biden put thenVice President on phone with business are associates two dozen times speaking to House Committee this week canceled i believe two times curious here do you think devon archer is going to testify this week. Good question i am so proud of the sores who are these have keep, because, if he does, he tells the story about what is actually happening, the American Public deserves to hear the story they deserve to hear what has happened what biden family has done millions of dollars paided to the biden family i hope that he can do that. Maria talked with the issue Merrick Garland came up in possible endorsement, i want you to listen what maria had to say. Are you removing to impeach toning Merrick Garland. Question for conference Speaker Mccarthy said if we have to go to impeachment we will do that it looks based on all evidence piling up senator grassley released with 1023 form what we heard when whistleblowers convicting statements agent Justice Department looks moving in that direction pretty quick pace. Maria jamie raskin said this is already done in trump doj all over, you say what well it is administration saying nothing to see here, you have a attorney general who fails to prosecute, even the most basic things, you remember when 2019, 2020, Democrat Party liberal media said just there is misinformation there is disinformation nothing to biden family hunter biden laptop all things have actually come true. Cheryl right. If Merrick Garland has not prosecuted this if he had knowledge we know now there are dodge fbi, and irs kwlbz have come capitol hill told truth normal people some cases democrats normal people telling truth Merrick Garland deserves to even be impeached our country has off if faith in institutions right now American Public does not. Cheryl congressman here in new york city, great to see you, warm for you this week youre used to that in the u. S. Led trip to new york going to hear from nypd, about counterterrorism in new york. I lead trip with representative esposito mike waller great members from new york talked to nypd counterterrorism, Law Enforcement important to understands 9 11 happened the committee was developed as a result of that tragedy we cant go back there again we have to focus, im proud what nypd is doing good men and women who serve this community we need to make sure our eye is on the ball, because radicalism extremism especially coming from middle east other terror groups throughout the world, they do want to undermine our we have open border. Exactly right that is a worry, people on watch list. I am glad you brought that up 128 people have come through our borders just this year, that have matched that terror watch list in perspective when trump was president less than 20 people in the fouryear term when President Trump was president came matched that list. By the way, those are people we know about. Ones we know about, exactly right. Congressman great tough on set thank you so much for coming in all lies on frvr this week officials kicking off july meeting tomorrow we are going to speak to former atlanta Federal Reserve president ceo den ifrs lockhart, disturbing details he about suspected gill bo beach killer youre not going to believe it. Were on it. Our Financial Planning tools and advice can help you prepare for todays longer retirement. Hi mom. Thats the value of ownership. upbeat music [narrator] what if there was a hearing aid that could keep up with you . notification dings this is jabra enhance select. Its a smart hearing solution that makes hearing aids more convenient and less expensive. It connects with your phone so you can stream calls and music. With jabra enhance selects premium package, better hearing doesnt have to start in a doctors office. It starts with a free online hearing test you could take almost anywhere, so you can get your hearing aids custom programed for you and delivered in days. 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She has no idea shes sitting on a goldmine. Well she doesnt know that if she owns a Life Insurance policy of 100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. Even a term policy. Even a term policy . Even a term policy find out if youre sitting on a goldmine. Call Coventry Direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect. Com. Cheryl well discoveries inside new york home alleged impelgo beach seller killer, gesture imperfect. Gerri that is right people finding a soundproof room basement saying evidence at least one victim was killed there, dogs brought in to check the property, heurmann charged with three Murders Police say connected to fourth seven others in long island marches. Iconic bitter bird logo if coop changes to x, the picture reflecting the change our headquarters tonight with new logo superimposed on the building. Universal studios denying accusations trim fic u. S. Leaves workers clang they are to make strike uncomfortable in heat wave universal saying we understand the tree trimming created unintended challenges for demonstrators not our intention, the l. A. Subcommittee controller saying trees are managed by City Companies need permit to do work on them he claims never obtained. This u. S. Soccer team win in friday nights game. That is me in front of on the go, [cheering and applause]. Gerri beating vietnam 30 on track for third illustrate world cup title the night marred by controversy majority did not bother the signing National Anthem at the start of the match. Gerri averaging over 5. Million viewers for the night and that is me in front of our building not jool i turned around a seb ago she is there, it is cool. Gerri only flying by looking at her exciting. Hats off to fox sports doing a great job covering womens soccer, anthem thing ladies come on just you know what is embarrassing Vietnamese Team singing every word of their anthem. A hard match all right. Thank you gerri, Federal Reserve is kicking off its two day july policy meeting tomorrow. On wednesday fed chair jay powell will announce rate it is asking fully pricing in 25 basis points hike, the 11th toll increase since march two fwo after fed paused cycle in june all this as inflation is cooling, price up 3 annually, that is slowest in nearly two years is it enough . Joining me now former atlanta Federal Reserve president ceo, Sam Nunn SchoolInternational AffairsDennis Lockhart how are you very good. Always great to talk to you on reports i cover on show as far as fed what do you think is biggest takeaway that we need to have this week from the fed meeting of course, the presser after . I think big takeaway will be whatever we get from jay Powells Press Conference of the path of policy for the coming months, they signaled in june that likely to be two more one would be wednesday another rate hike sometime in the fall. Then possibly a long term pause. So any indication we can get of the thinking of the committee forward would be help. Big question here because weve had several guests one this morning saying she believes we are heading into recession, that recession could be in the fall according to her Kathryn Rooney vera, could be spring fair enough 19 out of 106 polled by reuters say fed will continue raising Interest Rates beyond july do you really need that . Because the lagging indicator is data, he says datadependent but that is in the Rearview Mirror everything forward from analysts perspective economists perspective that the economy is going to take a setdown theyve done their job they should stop raising rates. Let me first comment on the recession recession thought. You know. I dont know how you come to the conclusion this economy is in recession or headeded in recession, imminently, the employee is resilient to all rate increases that are occurred. And, is really motoring along, at a in a very i would say a very healthy pays in fact more than the fed would like, in order to try to slow the pace of inflation. So, you know, i have to doubt that recession perspective. The what the fed will be looking at is not only the yearoveryear that is number that you cited 3 cpi head line inflation a number. But also looking at shorter term measures to get a sense of the run rate i think you should i think we conclude inflation is still a problem, and the run rate of inflation is above what the fed would like. And, therefore, perhaps more policy tightening is just the. Goldman sachs slashed he odds next year to 20 to give quick to viewers this isnt everyone says recession is just some say soft landing maybe no recession, liz peek. Liz good morning, the case for recession is looking at leading indicators have been going down for many months in a row a steeply are inverted yield curve bank credit tightening, 2001, 2007 was fine until labor market got soft has rolled over even janet yellen talked about that i am puzzled why you are so dismissive. Yield curve, signaling recession, recession hasnt arrived if you look at some measures of Second Quarter growth, one comes out of atlanta fed called gdp now, that is above 2 2. last i looked annualized number 2. 4 growth indications economy remains strong i just have to be very skeptical that were on cusp of recession, now. To be fair, the fed staff not board of governors nor president but staff continue to forecast a mild recession later in the year. I guess based on cumulative tightening to date, to be fair to everybody, this is a debatable question i am giving my view, a recession is not going to develop tomorrow. Cheryl well yeah thank you, certainly we do respect your view as former member of the fomc thank you Dennis Lockhart great to have you on the show as always. Thank you. A lot more coming up this morning, more than 300,000 ups workers threatening a strike. Could bring u. S. Economy to a halt a live report what this could mean for inflation supply chain next you are watching mornings with maria live on fox business. To you, baby, new projects means new project managers. You need to hire. I need indeed. Indeed you do. When you sponsor a job, you immediately get your shortlist of quality candidates, whose resumes on indeed match your job criteria. Visit indeed. Com hire and get started today. I dont want you to move. Im gonna miss you so much. You realize well have internet waiting for us at the new place, right . Oh, we know. We just like making a scene. Transferring your services has never been easier. 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I am at philadelphia hub if you walk over take a look at ups trucks ready to go out day will today but a week from today that is when deadline is could be shut down, yeah they are very ready, only here but alsowhere across the country pictures of practice picketing going on, there is picket locations set up, captain ss dont have a. C. , companies agreed to put a. C. In new trucks not to force overtime they want to share in profits of, a bigger share making a lot of money ups these days next profitable 11 1 2 billion dollars last report revenue over a hundred billion dollars we talked to member teamsters 623 said he worked through pandemic without getting compensated properly. Everybody got to stay home families had to sacrifice we had to worry bringing this covid19 walk to families out there, in environment all day long, 10, 12, 14hour days, so this is very, very important, our members demand we get what we deserve. You ceo didnt sacrifice tournament didnt sacrifice the members sacrificed. Popular chant in Labor Movement these days that were going to shut stuff down, when saying stuff another sh word temperatures say going to shut ship down if they dont get demands played. Cheryl a jeff flock nice report thank you, sir. Serious story but, very well said, yeah. To be serious as jeff alluded to, about this they want to shut everything down mike, can they. Michael look, i personally know two union ups drivers that work incredibly hard, this is not typically union stereotypic three watching one guy working throughout the day you work really hard, we live in ecommerce society, not only do they have the upper hand against ups right now they have upper hand against economy if a deal does not get done there will be severe knockon effects to our empire economy ups responsible for a large amount of shipping, not only amazon packages but commercial and also important stuff hope they get a deal done. Cheryl he makes a good point people kept us going during pandemic uups. Liz essentially workers remember that term essential workers turned occupy kept economy going because everybody was buying online in those days nothing was open, only thing i say sort of political lens joe biden talks about him being most pro Union President ever if weve a lot of strikes beginning with this impact the economy make things hard for people, that is not going to look good for joe biden. Because, up until now, unions have sort of ceded ground i think to please this president this administration this could be a turning point if these guys go on strike. Cheryl i think that you bring that up mike, weve seen something change, in the last several years within the Republican Party they have become the ones that are representing, are the the every day man, that and woman out there struggling that person democrats always claim was their voter, now republicans are actually speaking up saying were glowing to help you care about you whether a union member or not i dont know. Michael this is Like Tea Party then rise of trump here we are like somehow the republicans have become the party of the working class. They have taken that directly from democrats not a democrats who are party elites party of wall street party of corporate boardroom. Amtrak joe might have an issue with voters. Liz by the way, he donations political donations so far kind of back that up small dollar donors not showing up for joe biden. Showing up for republican candidates, you are right all right. We are taking a quick break when we come back running with purpose how a retired Police Officer is honoring a fallen brother, making a big buzz this morning. Well be right back. This magic moment, while our hopes in mind, will last forever, forever till the end of time. C elebrating 25 years of Affordable Care with an epic summer of smiles event. Right now, new patients without insurance get a free full exam and xrays. Plus, everyone can get 20 off their treatment plan. But hurry, because while these Summer Savings wont last, the memories you make together will. Aspen dental. Book today. The first time you made a sale online with godaddy was also the first time you heard of a town named dinosaur, colorado. We just got an order from dinosaur, colorado. Start an easy to build, powerful website for free with a partner that always puts you first. Start for free at godaddy. Com i got this 1,000 camera for only 41 on dealdash. Dealdash. Com, online auctions since 2009. 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It is unbelievable to do Something Like that i had a friend that did a full ironman for a buddy that died of cancer. If i had something tragic happened one of my friends i would hope i could do that spectacular but i probably can it. Especially for the family. I have got to say all these different races that i do whether the new york marathon, there is always people that are running for a cause especially in the Running Community within the new york road runners, whether cancer, alzheimers, dementia, whether its pedi pediatric, its amazing the Running Community, i dont think they get enough credit for how much they care and how much money they raise giving this man credit. I think its another reminder of the bonds of blue the police to cover each other and they need support right now theyre not cutting much from politicians these days. The physical toll of your body is incredible, 50 marathons. The last new york marathon in november. He is retiring. By the way speaking of big things happening. Mike lee, the orlando open in its jiujitsu, you won your age group and your weight class on friday night. Congratulations. Hats off to you. Mike lee, liz peek great to have you here. I do want to point before i send over to see what the markets are doing, the dow is at 43, is looking pretty good yet the fed meeting this week pulling the futures up, what else is happening, first read, Second Quarter gdp, jay powell, the list goes on and on mr. Varney. Stuart yes it does work to put all untapped, good morning,