Business news and analysis.
Business news and analysis.
1186, and this is 1998, it toppled 19% by august 31st. a lot of anxiety there. but then, it mostly move sideways during the senate hearings which began early february, ended on february 12th, 1999. look at the chart, you can see the stock market was up to the races after that. >> neil: you have a good economic or market backed up. i think it helps if you are president to base of the like his. richard nixon was not so lucky, if you think about it. >> if he had to kind of growth that reagan had, clinton had, he might have survived, for sure. >> neil: you never know. certainly, all of these rattling barks, could it rattle your money? sam, what you think? >> hey, neil, good to talk to you again. i think that newspapers are sold on headlines, but stocks are purchased on bottom lines.
this really does not affect the overall bottom line. i think it certainly is something that will be selling newspapers and causing people to turn on fox in the coming days, but our expectation is economic growth will remain healthy, earnings will continue to rise. as a result, solo stock prices. >> neil: you have to wonder, john, with this concern or outside the box of the development, it will be like the black swan development that you see coming. what would happen if a house switch, democrats begin impeachment hearing, you know the drill, then what? >> i think the house will switch to democrat. the president's party has lost each in the house. i think that is likely to happen. i'm not sure that they will start the impeachment process. but one of the probabilities of that, two presidents impeached, one resigned, the market did not change long term because of those political scandals. the market will change on basic
economic fundamentals. the economic fundamentals right now are very strong. plus, you have to understand that president trump, his economies are so pro growth. the cutting of regulation, the cutting of taxes have already been put into place. we will see that to benefit even if the house switch is to democrats. >> neil: do you get sense that the president's own performance of the market and the economy, people objectively has said it is very strong is hurt by the ongoing drip, drip, drip of development of "the washington post" story out a few minutes ago that there are president saw the possibility of pardoning paul mena for? but again, it is part of the ongoing pattern. here's another development. here is another drip when you think? >> thought that the market cares at all, neil, i question the uncertainty. what is the uncertainty? at the democrats take the house, the president is more than likely not going to be impeached. we know that he will not be in the senate.
vice president which is donald trump without the tweets. the same policies are getting put forward. >> neil: [laughs] trump without the tweets. that's pretty good point. you are looking at hypotheticals, and i agree with catherine, we are a long way from that. there is no way to play something like that. >> no, there is not. the market is pretty much ignoring it. the market was flat pretty much from november 2014-new bar for 2016. the reception at least of a business pretty administration. the transferred trump was a positive one. the capriciousness for mr. trump for trading something on amazon, when he went after amazon, i thought this would blow over, sure enough, it did. there is a little bit of a trade in that, but i would not recommend trading on the
probability of president trump's timeline. >> neil: would you adjust the trade here? >> in fact i have. neil, when i was last on your program, i said i don't believe that the trade war is all for nothing. i think it is a negotiating tactic. i actively recommended my clients to invest. that is proved to be a very lucrative trade. >> neil: you said that now. we won't get into that. >> we have gotten into nastiness, but trade war, and semantics. a trade war is catastrophic. right now, we are talking about negotiations and proving and getting fair trade. i think you can trade on some of the headlines and headline news. >> neil: scott, on those earnings, the economy, and the performance, the rumors, back-and-forth on trade, is just noise to you, right? >> if the market, neil, remains a forward-looking indicator.
i don't want to spark the good party punch here, but you guys got to wonder, with all of the shots that trump is taking, if one of them hits, after all, that was a worry that we had a couple of months that didn't happen with the trade stuff, especially with vladimir putin. but they are throwing more and more at him every day. >> neil: thank you all, very, very much. with the drama around the news development and the drip, drip, drip, the president was considering a pardon melted off his lawyers for paul mena four. his team saying that they did not consult him about any of that. about pardoning manafort. much ado about nothing. after this. we protected your money then and we're dedicated to helping
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dicey. i did not come out of the campaign, and that is fake. it has not even a campaign violation. >> neil: all right, if no campaign funds were involved, it was just the president paying the lawyer, and of story, is that the whole story? there is no legal quagmire there at all. tom, is he right? >> he's part right, but i think it may be a little bit more complex. the fact is, campaign finance law is a little bit complicated and byzantine law that there is. i love complexity as much as anyone, but oh, my goodness, it could be very difficult to decide in a particular case what is our campaign finance violation and what isn't. often the question turns on intent. we know from this plea, michael cohen affected these please to circumvent campaign finance law. but it is not affect someone involved like the president also had the intent to violate camp and finance law.
>> neil: even if you're not paying with campaign funds, you could be culpable? >> you could be, in other words, there are disclosure requirements. if you have a situation where a third-party reaches into his wallet and makes a contribution or a payment that is intended to affect the outcome of an election just because that money did not come from the campaign doesn't make everything okay. that is still something that would need to be disclosed. there would be issues about whether you are exceeding the authorized limits on campaign contributions and things along those lines. >> neil: all right, so the difference here is the difference between the candidate himself right in the check, or would it have mattered if it stopped with michael cohen writing the check with no involvement? >> the best way to answer that question is that it would be a different analysis. in other words, there would be one set of rules that could be applicable in a situation where the campaign is writing the check or the candidate is writing the check out of his own pocket. different rules come into play
if you are in a situation where the third party such as michael cohen makes the payment. i would say that the candidate or the campaign reimburses the third party doesn't somehow insulate that. i would still be a situation where the third party, even if he is being reimbursed, it was still need to reapply with the disclosure and the contribution rules. >> neil: i know that this gets a little bit of fuel from legal matters here, but if the idea was for this to be revealed in the election to hurt the president, you could have effectively made that argument and it didn't. everything was downhill from that by comparison. was that an issue? is that an issue? >> neil, this is why it is so dog are complicated. there can be a lot of expenditures that might serve dual purposes. in other words, you could argue that these type of expenditures are personal expenses, that these are the sorts of deals that donald trump would have made, regardless of whether he was running for office or not and that he should be put in the
personal expenditures category. then again, you have the other side of the school of thought that would say, my goodness, the guy is running for president and the reason why he did it was to increase his odds and the election. therefore, it should be counted as campaign expenditures. you should recall when john edwards was the candidate and he was making his payoffs, and ultimately, he was acquitted of these charges. but, again, i think it underscores that when you're talking campaign finance law, there are a lot of gray area, and at the end of the day, it will often turn on what the intent of these payment was. >> neil: let me ask you real quickly about the story that "the washington post" put out that the lawyers were talking about pardoning paul manafort. john roberts was able to contact gruber giuliani, and that he would never consider this. i don't know what is what's there, but what do you make of that? what would happen if the
president were to do that? >> it is tough to know what to make of it. the fact is that the president is signaling publicly that what happened to paul manafort was unfair. this is not a president who has exercised his pardon power, so i think the possibility of exercising a pardon at some point is on the table. paul manafort, of all the people who was willing to go to court, there might be a pardon at the end of the road waiting for him. i think that the president was getting good legal advice to the extent that the advisors were saying if you are considering the possibility of a pardon, decide who you want to pardon as opposed to doing it right now or doing so preemptively. >> neil: tom, thank you, very, very much. the craziness. have you seen this monster of a storm? just knocking on hawaii's door. that is the view from space. it is very, very close now. after this.
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at home, with internet essentials. >> neil: all right, adam is in maui, hawaii, right now with a hurricane that won't quit. as knocking on that beautiful door. what is the latest there, buddy? >> we haven't had rain in a few hours, and now, you're starting to see it pick up a little bit, and the rain come in with big drops. a lot of rain. we are expecting potentially 10-12 inches depending on where you are in the island. it has been a calm morning. for maui, and much of the island here in hawaii. on the big island, we have video for you. it is only 25 miles or so to our east from where i am standing, the big island of hawaii where hilo is located which gets a lot
of rain anyway. the moisture is coming from the hurricane and drenched 16 inches of water. conversely, on the other side of the island, on the other side of the volcanoes, it is pretty dry over there. only a quarter inch. they are expecting to get a lot of rain. people have not taken a slightly appeared that is important. we were here yesterday morning and saw people preparing then,, and we continue to pair as the rain comes. we talk to officials like mayors, and governors, they don't take the storm lightly. >> we haven't really faced a hurricane of this magnitude and as far of history as i can remember. it will be a new experience for everybody if it maintains its current strength. i am hoping and praying that it will diminish and strength. >> what is for sure, hawaii will be impacted, the question is how
bad? >> if the president, trying to get on the front end of this as well. he put out a tweet today saying i've put out an emergency disaster declaration to provide hawaii with our teams, closely closely -- tell people from fema have come in so far to help coordinate if necessary. the good news, we are getting bits and pieces of it from a local forecasters here. every 5 minutes or so, updating it. the storm is so big, the wind is helping. they don't believe that the wind will be a big issue as well. the hope that the probability of high winds are getting lower and lower. but the rain total still is a worry for every single island along this chain. again, the big island in one place has got 16 inches of rain. we are not sure if we are going to get that here in maui, or the others, but there is potential for that, neil. we are all prepared for it and see what the rain brings. >> neil: adam in hawaii.
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>> neil: all right, the president is saying go ahead and push me out and watch this whole bull market go away. in an interview earlier today on fox, he kind of made that clear. was it a threat, was it a reminder? when presidents are under duress, whether it is republican or democrat, is not good. we were looking at this a little earlier with the idea that wall street folks who were not red or blue, they like green. they like making money. they don't like any uncertainty that gets in the way of making money. the president's point is a valid one. we are throwing us out there as a possibility now. it is not going to be good for this market. what do you think? >> how do we know? we don't know what the market will do. there are forces around the market that are probably more important than what is happening in washington and partisan politics. there are a lot of people who said the market which crash if trump got elected. the market would crash if he's
out may not happen either. i think ultimately, for investors what is more important is looking at where we are in the current market cycle. it's not the longest bull market in history, we don't need to get into the semantics of that. but looking in the character of the economic market recovery, one thing i will say is that there are competing forces here. there are concerns about the midterm elections and what if anything at that refers to policy and policy changes. what is that due to the soft economic data and the hard economic data? the difference between surveys and the hard quantifiable data which is been less strong? we eliminate the animal spirits? we tend to have trouble in election years regardless of what is happening. post of the questions what we need to answer as opposed to making a bombastic call on a crash because of some political outcome. >> neil: the president said i
bombastic call? >> to say that the market will crash if i'm impeached, i would call it fairly bombastic. no one knows what the market is going to do. >> neil: you did, because that is why i'm happy. >> i absolutely do not. my crystal ball is not clear than anyone else. >> neil: the longest bull market because the last one technically started a few years earlier than we give it credit. can you explain that? >> sure, again, people will say that this is an argument around semantics. regardless of how long the correct phases have lasted, the 1990 pullback was 19.9%. people will say come around to 20. there was a correction then in 1998 there was 19.4%. does that qualify? no, that does not qualify because it does not perfectly round. in 2011, you had a decline in the market of 19.4%. by the way, that lasted almost twice as long as the one in
1990. why doesn't that matter? in the 2011 correction, get 70% of the s&p 500 stocks go down by 500% and crushed other indexes like the russell. he had one that declined that went well beyond 20%. what is the magic to 4:00? i'm a huge fan of the research, i have a two year research relationship with them. they have their own defined bull markets. to look at decline, bull and bear market, but also the calendar period of time. you have a smaller decline that lasts a more expended. time, and that classifies -- i think if you are arbitrary, an end that's a narrative, your missing out on the ability to look at history at what market cycles look like and understand the position we are in right now. that is really the only point. >> neil: i am very sorry that i asked that question. liz, in your view of the market right now and all of the other noise, notwithstanding whether you think this could continue, we have good honors and good
economy, good stocks out there. where are you? >> technically, the market looks pretty good here in this most recent rally. albeit, not to new highs. that is another factor. we have not taken out the january highs for the s&p 500. really, the bull market should be dated to that point. technically, the market looks pretty good. you are seeing more advancing stocks then declining stocks, the rest of the market has been pretty strong. you are saying support by things like the dow transports which tends to be a confirming indicator. you are starting to see what we call a second derivative change or rate of change, change an important leading indicators. the levels of these indicators are still quite healthy. the economy still looks quite healthy. but the market has a tendency to sniff out inflection points. what trips out investors more than anything is not understanding that when it comes to the relationship between economic fundamentals in the market, better or worse tends to
matter more than good and bad. that is why in the march 2000 talk, the economic data looked actually fantastic. at march 2009 bottom come out that economic data looked horrific. but the market senses when you're starting to see that inflection point and tends to move. i think we need to be mindful of some of these light cycle tendencies in the concept of a bull market. >> neil: lives, always good talking to you, thank you very, very much. republican congressman hunter, we are going to talk to the guy trying to make that happen. after this. for in a vehicle? sleek designs. performance. dependability is top on my list. well then, here's some vehicles that deliver on that. woah! wow. oh jeez! that's our truck! it's our truck! and they're our cars! that's my chevy! chevy's the only brand to earn j.d. power dependability awards across cars, trucks and suvs three years in a row.
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congressman and his wife outside court in san diego. shame on you, and you lied, they are accusing him of using money to pay for can patients and private school tuition. charitable donations and $600 supplies. business mistakes, partially blaming his wife, margaret, who was also his campaign manager. he pled not guilty. >> it is my responsibility, it is my chance, i did not have as much visibility on my personal finances as i should have. >> hunter comes from a slam-dunk g.o.p. district. but this makes this no longer true. will voters buy his argument if his case is a political witch hunt. they attended a clinton fund-raiser, but the current u.s. attorney in southern california is a trump appointee. we don't know if they will campaign together. they have six weeks to make the case to voters.
analysts say indictment or not, it is likely a jump ball. >> neil: thank you, very, very much. with hunter under scrutiny, now, shifted to 50th california district from solid republican. this democrat would probably be saying, how about no republican? running against duncan hunter, he joined us right now. >> hi, neil, how are you? spewing on the fox show, it is very good to have you. does this change the dynamic in your race question my caddy look at a question mark >> it does. the solitary republican thing or solidly democrat, as solidly american, this district that i belong to. i think that does change the race. i was talking to my pastor about how i should confront this issue. first, i want to say that congressman duncan hunter honorably served our country
abroad. he fought the battle so that someone like me could fight the battle for the ones that we have a home. i think the man that served our country never made it back from the battlefield. i think washington chewed him up and spat him out and he lost his way. i think people are looking for someone who will lead with their values, somebody who not only will pass laws, but follow the law. that is what i am trying to run for everybody in the district, not just for the resistant of them. >> neil: how do you know that washington won't chew you up and spit you up? >> i have served in washington long enough to know that is broken, but i did not break me. i am the son of a single class working mom who raised me. i did not speak for my father like duncan hunter did. >> neil: that is a little extreme. let me ask you. you are recently very critical of the idea that if you made it to washington, you wouldn't want nancy pelosi to be your leader. i guess you meant that whether
democrats are in the minority or the majority. who would you want? >> you know, that is a good question. i really appreciate that you have the confidence that you think i might be in a position to make that choice. let me first get elected. i would like to see another woman. >> neil: you are the one that stated that you would not support her. >> i am not backpedaling on that. i've not given enough thought on who would be a good replacer. i would like to see a woman in that position. to have another man as president in 2020, i would like to see a balance between congress and 2020 of men and women. trying to figure out what the best way forward is for our contribute i do think it is time for new leadership. for the people who disagree in my party it is inevitable. nobody is in office forever. that is why i am running for congress against a dynasty that has been there forever. >> neil: you agree with a lot of nancy pelosi espoused, but you think the tax cuts were tilted to the red, you would like them readjusted? you agree with a lot of her
politics -- >> you know what, duncan hunter and i agree that this tax cut would hurt california fanned please. it would hurt california families, but he said, why should i let the rest of the country suffer for california's poor decisions? as i checked, he was the congressman for california beard i want to put the 50th first. i'm not really thinking about what label that falls under. i want to be an independent leader who will get rid of the corruption, the greed, and the chaos that is in playing in washington appeared when you agree that there is a lot of bad and without looking at labels a party, i think we need somebody who will put the people's interest first, and i think duncan hunter has been too distracted. he wants to serve our country, but those days are gone, and he's lost his way. >> neil: the democrats want to go after him and the market is going to crash, what you say? >> i think you said bombastic, and you have been known to stand up to the president from time to time. i think it is what we need in congress. an independent check on the president, no matter who it is but i don't think they should be the threat of holding the
economy hostage and saying that if you impeach me, the economy will take. it is a weapon of mass distraction appeared we need to focus on the district. but on personal politics but personal safety, and financial dignity. that's what i care. it is not for me, i'm not a fan of it. >> neil: we watch it very, very close appeared thank you sir, very, very much. >> thank you for having me. >> neil: delay the nomination, but not for the reason that you would think. keeping me from the things i love to do. talk to your doctor, and call 844-214-2424. mom: okay we need to get all your school supplies today. school... grade... done. done. hit the snooze button and get low prices on school supplies all summer long. like these for only $2 or less at office depot officemax.
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what do you make of that? it seemed a little goofy to me, but the idea that we are getting distracted and it is one thing at a time >> spigot they wouldy that there is a hurricane in hawaii. delay the nomination, the sky is blue, delay the nomination. they were nominated by the president who was under some kind of investigation of the time, they know that that is not a real issue, they are trying to distract from a nominee who is one of the most qualified nominees we've ever had. he has number of amazing opinions to his name. they don't want to look at the actual record of being fair or balanced. they are just trying to distrac distract. >> neil: what is the realistic timeline on this? what you think and how will it go? >> we know that right after labor day we're going to start the hearings that tuesday through friday, we will be hearing from judge and witnesses speaking about him. we will hear from the 2020 candidates and the senate judiciary committee will be using a platform of their own. but there will be a couple of more weeks of votes in the committee and it will go to the floor. he will be seated and what i
think, by october can the supreme court comes again for its next term. >> neil: weren't the democrats waiting for some more details, paperwork, information, details about when he was working for president bush? >> yes, despite that we have the most extensive questionnaire, more pages have been produced already than any nominee previously appeared we had 170-180000 pages, she thought that was a lot. 250,000 pages and counting for him so far. they want to see more. they want to see emails that have his name in it, literally. it is goofy. of course, they have not seen everything, they are trying to delay this. they know that they do not have the votes to stop it. yet, this is something that chuck schumer has been pressed to make this as a crazy issue. people will be hurting, people like senator manchin, senator donnelly, they are in states where their constituents really want to see him confirmed.
him jamming this issue up will not make them any happier. >> neil: all three of them would vote for him? >> absolutely. all three of them voted for justice gorsuch. i think it would be very likely to see them again. they were the first to break ranks. even meeting with the judge, they said no, we are going to at least meet with him. he is so articulate, so thoughtful, for anyone who has spoken with him, it will be hard for them to sit down with him and talk to him with the questions that they have and not come away really impressed. i think we will see all of them over him eventually. >> neil: this will be like a pay-per-view event. on this network, hour by hour, day by day. thank you, very much. this gravy train of a market economy, all ends. the democrats try to make his presidency end. we are on that. i couldn't do it. i needed help.
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speed to go ahead, make my day. impeach me and it will ruin yours. president trump telling ainsley earhardt he would be a big mistake but not for the reason you might think. >> if i ever got impeached, i think the market would crash. i think everybody would be very poor. >> neil: lower the boom on me, there goes the boom for you. that's quite a threat that it might even happen. the bull market could be histor history. if democrats dare to make that president history. what the president is saying, we are all making gravy, so i stopped the train? i don't know. maybe because the train could be resting on shaky tracks. or the conductor of that train has said and done some shaky things or at least inconsistent things. good time should never be used to ignore bad things. i'm not saying unconstitutional things or even illegal things. but enough things to give pause. yes, even in the market rally. making money should never get in the way of simply getting answers, not answers that topple
the government, maybe just clarify it or force the government to clarify itself. that's all. all i'm saying is you don't prevent a constitutional crisis by threatening a financial one. mr. president, you -- your actions and words. could make people think you're hiding the crisis, like when you say you knew nothing about payments to a stripper and former "playboy" model and pleaded, that explain your former lawyer michael cohen made those decisions until we heard on tape that you did. just like you said you nothing about a trump tower meeting in june 2016 that included your son, donald trump jr., and russian officials. then clarified that that meeting really wasn't about dirt on hillary clinton. it was about russian adoptions. then clarified yet again that nothing came of the meeting of what you knew nothing, so there's nothing to see. move on. but you see, that's the problem here. we can't move on. lots of stuff like that keeps popping up.
getting re-explained. some are big and worrisome, other are consistent and tiresome. like when you are that ohio governor john kasich wasn't popular, when he wasn't radar u.s. steel was building six new steel mills when they weren't. or said your poll numbers weren't were higher than when abraham lincoln was president even though we didn't have polls when lincoln was present or argued crime was way up in germany when it's the lowest in decades. said that foreigners were screwing us with tariffs on our cars but not a word about the 20% tariff that we slap on their trucks. argued we have a massive trade deficit with canada when we are actually running a current salary surplus in canada. said you signed more legislation than anybody but you haven't heard love, love, love michael cohen until he didn't. he was a great lawyer until he wasn't. none of these make them or get
any impressive. maybe just a guy overseeing at all. mr. president, you are that guy. you're both those guys. you are right to be frustrated, but you are part of what's frustrating. it's not about stepping on your message. it's about constantly changing it. you are right to say your critic should be held accountable, but that doesn't mean you should be hold this economic boom you hold so dear hostage. it cheapens your argument tenant cheapens this country. i like tax cuts and soaring markets is much as anybody, but what good is it to fatten your wallet if you have lost your soul, if you forget your friends, and you embolden your enemies. you are right to say some arc to get you but all the some of the times the problem is you, what you keep changing. i know you call it fate, but the implications of what you're doing, mr. president, are very real. you are so darn focus on promoting a financial boom that you fail to see that you are the

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