The white house rolled out the red carpet for south koreas president so cookie on yoon sukyeol, a six state visit underlying how important this guest is to washington. [singing] his ignorant [cheers and applause] nastasya american pie was far from the only thing on the menu, discussions are set to cover trade, security and geopolitics. The trip began with the signing of a new accord promising u. S. Protection for south korea against the threat of Nuclear Attack from pyongyang. So what will this declaration mean for the asiapacific . And what has the reaction. In . We will discuss with our guests, but first, we are taught through the details of the deal. Reporter a show of military strength underscoring a powerful alliance, as a u. S. President joe biden welcomed south korean president yoon sukyeol to the white house on wednesday. It is the first u. S. State visit between the two in 12 years, designed to project a united front in the face of increased missile testing by north korea, and growing alarm in the south. Pres. Biden Nuclear Attack by north korea against the United States, its allies and its partners, is unacceptable and will result in the end of whatever regime would take such an action. Many the two leaders have signed a new plan called the washington declaration. They say it is an annex precedented they say that it is an unprecedented expansion of their Nuclear Deterrence in the region. It includes joint exercises and the regular deployment of u. S. Tactical assets to the peninsula, even though south korea is officially a nonproliferation country. Our countries have agreed to president ial consultations in the event of a north korea Nuclear Attack, and promise to respond swiftly and decisively, using the full force of our alliance, including the United States stuffy up there weapons. Reporter for the first time in 40 years, American Nuclear submarines will be deployed to south korea. For its part, so obama has committed to not developing its own weapons, seoul has committed to not developing its own Nuclear Weapons, instead remaining under washingtons umbrella. We dont know how long they will stay around the area. The whole point of submarines is that all of that information will be kept in the dark. So those who wanted stronger protection for this are saying that what came out this time is not exactly satisfying. Reporter china has condemned the move, accusing the two leaders of provoking confrontation, and the liberty deliberately storing up tensions with north korea. But just how much influence has is up for debate. For many south koreans, the priority is simply whos doing more to defend us. Alexandra byers for inside , story. Nastasya joining me now are our guests. In south korea we have sean omalley. Hes a professor of International Studies at dongseo university. In washington, d. C. Greg , scarlatoiu, hes the executive director of the committee for human rights in north korea and in beijing, we have einar tangen, senior fellow at the senior fellow at the tahoe institute, a nonprofit think tank. A warm welcome to you all. Thank you for joining u. S. On inside story. There is plenty to discuss, but i do want to start with the technicalities of the agreement. One of the big topics we are talking about is these regular deployment of u. S. Nuclear submarines to south korean waters and harbors. But correct me if i am wrong, if a u. S. Nuclear submarine is at a south korean harbor, i believe its too close to actually target north korea. Sean, is this then really just for show . Guest thank you. In some sense it is for show. It is a show of commitment and resolve from the United States that they, too, have the capability, much like north korea has tried to demonstrate lately, of submarine lunch capability, and that they will deploy it to the peninsula if necessary. And it makes for a strike on north korea that could be a surprise or anticipated or not anticipated. The United States of course would not launch an attack against south korea, but it is a warning that the technology is there and that if north korea wants to flaunt the technology it has developed, the United States can do the same thing and it will do so to protect its alliance partner. So in a sense, it is more for show. Nastasya sean, he said that this is about flaunting technology. But it is also about deterrence. For the deterrence to work, its not just about showing capabilities, you also have to demonstrate your will to retaliate. Does this do that . Guest not really. The sobs would be better off in an unknown location remember, the submarine is a delivery vehicle mostly for secondstrike if there is an attack. Submarines are supposed to be hidden and they would follow our u. S. Code but frankly send missiles to north korea from mainland america. This is not an issue. Strategically its a very bad move, because north koreans can park their underwater drones outside the harbors and just follow these nuclear subs around thereafter, also exposing them in a port where they will not be able to be retrofitted or they could be resupplied. They spend about twothirds of their time at sea, onethird in a facility where they do repairs. It is purely for show. But i dont think the pentagon is going to be very happy. Nastasya greg, i know that you want to jump in here, how is this going over in north korea . Guest according to a 2021 study by the rand corporation, north korea will be in possession of 200 nukes by the year 2027, which is comparable to the uk for the French Nuclear arsenal and half of chinas way that time. We have seen that the south korean public has grown increasingly worried about north koreas new their program. North korea is a black hole in the map of northeast asia. South korea is the worlds 10thlargest economy. According to a study, 53 of south koreans are in favor of developing a domestic deterrent. Well, that would be a really tough proposition. South korea will have would have to pull out of the nonproliferation treaty. South korea is all about the economy, all about samsung, lg , and other successful companies. South korea would come under sanctions. So of course this is an emotional reaction on the outside. South koreans are very interested in taking charge of their own national defense, which is great, but this recent move of docking u. S. Nuclear submarines in south korea n ports, it is more than just a show. It reinforces the belief, confidence in extended deterrence based on a rocksolid u. S. Alliance. And if you look at the washington declaration, what it says is that the republic of full confidence in u. S. Extended deterrence, and expresses and recognizes the necessity and benefit of its reliance on the u. S. Nuclear deterrent. So this is all about boosting south korean confidence in the alliance. You said it is a historic meeting, first state visit in 12 years. This meeting has been focused on the economy, and also be extended turns and the alliance. Nastasya clearly this is all about trust. You mentioned that a majority of south koreans are keen to develop their own nuclear arsenal. I mean some of those poll numbers go up to 70 of south koreans want a Nuclear Weapon. We have talked about this getting a message to pyongyang. This was clearly also a message to the south korean public to try to appease them. Sean, does the declaration do that . Guest i dont think so. I think for the time being, they are trying to placate a domestic audience in south korea that is pushing for an indigenous Nuclear Deterrent. Those numbers have been going up the last 10 years here in south korea, and the majority of south koreans would rather have an Indigenous Program than relying on the United States. And i think in the short to mediumterm, that interest by the public is going to have to be addressed with something much more concrete than washington declaration presents. Nastasya i could see that you were not in full agreement there. Guest no. I think his comments are good, but the previous men in washington, i understand those are the talk points of the state department, and quite frankly, lets address the elephant in the room. The reason south koreans want their own Nuclear Deterrents because they dont trust the u. S. They look at what happened in afghanistan, iraq, everywhere around the world the u. S. Has gone, it has not fulfilled its promises. It has walked away from treaties, whether it is kyoto or paris or the j. C. P. O. A. Not the kind of stuff that would make people feel that the u. S. Is going to honor its commitments. I think they are saying, we have to do this ourselves. Im not in favor of it. I dont think anyone else is. If south korea gets it, itll only be a matter of time before japan and perhaps countries in Southeast Asia decide that they also need to have a Nuclear Weapon. Nastasya so we are talking about a potential arms race. Before we go down that path, i want to focus on little on south korea at the moment, because watching president yoon saying american pie there, it seemed like a fullthroated embrace of america, even after the recent revelations that the u. S. Has been spying on some of its allies. We thought it might be awkward, but they seem to have moved on from that. Is there the political appetite in south korea to try and start an Indigenous Program within the leadership . Greg, what do you think . Guest well, i think that those interviewed for those surveys need to put in serious thought and realize what the consequences would be. Doubt u. S. Commitment to the u. S. Rock alliance. This is a Strong Partnership alliance, friendship, brotherhood and sisterhood forged on the brutal, bloody battlefields of the korean war. And as the other speakers have mentioned, despite what the perception might be about what has happened elsewhere in the world, the commitment to the alliance is rocksolid. This is the message the two president s are sending right now, President Biden and president yoon. Extended deterrence surrounding the Korean Peninsula has been an accomplishment of the Biden Administration strengthening that extended deterrence. I dont know what more the two president s can do to enhance the confidence of the south korean public. Nastasya one of the things that they could potentially do is to put in Nuclear Weapon on south korean soil, but President Biden has been very clear that they are not willing to do that. That was not the case several decades ago. I am curious what has changed. Is this about stopping Nuclear Proliferation in the region, or is there another strategic consideration here . Guest the United States has always said that their primary concern about south korea having their weapons is that it allows for greater proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and it would lead to an arms race in the region. Not sure if that logic actually holds up, but they are not interested in south korea having Nuclear Weapons indigenously, and the Biden Administration is not interested in putting Nuclear Weapons here. That said, as we look at some of the phone numbers you asked about the political will in south korea to create a Nuclear Deterrent, i dont think there is political will to go that far yet, but the numbers do show that the south korean public, the liberals Affairs Council had an excellent survey back in 2022 that showed south koreans, the primary reasons of a threat except for north korea, so its right outside north korea, it is 50 55 of the main reason for people believing in Nuclear Deterrent is necessary indigenously, mostly focused on china. The second most popular answer was the prestige of south korea. South koreans are well aware that they are the only nonNuclear Power in the region. Japan has enough plutonium processed that they can have a crash course and have Nuclear Weapons within weeks. And so, south korea is really on the outs as far as an equal partner when it comes to sitting at the negotiating tables. And i think the south korean public would like for that to change. Nastasya that is interesting that you say, sitting at the negotiating table. Because it felt like one of the big wins for south korea was that inclusion of what they are calling the Nuclear Consultative group, to get involved in Nuclear Planning with the u. S. How big a big deal is that for south korea . Guest again, we are talking about a pantomime here. If you are going to be involved in nuclear policy, it is whether you push the button or not. I dont know how to simplify it anymore. Lets look beyond outside. The u. S. Is also pressuring south korea in other things. China has started an action against macron, it sells about 25 of its memory chips in china , 15 billion against micron. And all of a sudden there is this nuclear talk. This is a precedent. He has a 36 Approval Rating. He and biden have a lot to talk about in that area. And it is a little odd that it is coming on the heels of china announcing that they had a very nice phone call with zelenskyy after they have been trying to push peace in the middle east. And the response is we are going to put Nuclear Missiles somewhere near south korea. There will be a legal case involved in this, because the base where these submarines go in, these are territorial waters. Its the same thing, it doesnt matter if the u. S. Is controlling it or not, does Nuclear Weapons will be in the sovereign territory of south korea, so i am sure there will be some complaint that says this is in fact a violation of the agreement. Nastasya greg, i will let you jump in, i know you wanted to talk about the other economic considerations for south korea. Guest thank you lets remember the fundamentals, the reason why there are 20,500 u. S. Servicemen and women in south korea is that on june the 25th, 1950 north korea invaded south korea. We dont have a peace treaty in place, just an armistice. South korea is an academic powerhouse, absolutely right. The sacrifice would be great, developing Nuclear Weapons. That would be borderline insanity. Of course, this is a very emotional reaction. These people in the north are blackmailing us, we are the worlds 10th largest economy. Why not have our own their weapons . I disagree that south korea is the only nonNuclear Power in the region. Japan is not a Nuclear Power. South korea also relies on Nuclear Power and has the capability to develop Nuclear Weapons in about 12 months. And remember, article nine of the japanese constitution outlaws the resolution of International Disputes through armed conflict. So the price to pay would be great. South korea is not going nuclear. South korea and south koreans will be reassured by this state visit by president yoon to the white house and the United States that the alliance is strong, that the United States continues to be committed to extended deterrence, to containing the north korean threat. Why are we doing this . Because they will have 200 Nuclear Warheads by the year 2027. They just tested a 3stage Ballistic Missile capable of reaching probably any point within the continental United States. So, the tension is not driven by south korea or the u. S. Rok alliance, the tension is being driven by the north korean provocations. Nastasya let me ask you the question greg is alluding to, have u. S. Risk calculations potentially changed now that we are seeing increased north korean capabilities to hit cities in the continental United States . Guest i think any good unitary strategist would say that things have definitely changed over the last two years. The military first policy of north korea has seen a number of successes in the past couple of years, including Cruise Missile technology, tests of submarine, lunchbased missiles. Recently, a solid fuel rocket launch. So they are moving ahead and evolving. And the United States will have to evolve with it, and so will south korea. I would like to piggyback on what was just said, however, and say that although south korea may not get indigenous Nuclear Capability and may not have the will for it, the United States right now currently enjoys an Approval Rating of about 90 here in south korea. And china has a negative approval of about 80 , as far as friendly countries towards south korea. And the south korean population within that perspective politically, it is a very authorized environment right now. Already, the opposition party, the Democratic Party is attacking president yoon, that this summit has been a failure. That it is a blow to National Interests and a blow to national security. , the People Power Party says it is a great success, that extended deterrence has been extended. That south korea is in a better position. So i think south koreans have a lot of soulsearching to do. President yoon needs to build consensus about what the vision is for south korea diplomatic policy and foreign policy, because his vision is not really agreedupon yet by the public. This drawing closer to the United States and seemingly pushing away from china and russia, although he has not said that himself, that he wants to push away. Nastasya i feel like this is a good time to look specifically at the chinese reaction to all of this. Obviously, beijing does not seem furtively pleased. A from the Foreign Ministry what the u. S. Is doing provokes competition between camps, undermines the nonproliferation regime, and Strategic Interests in other countries. There does seem to be a paradox here, because the policy the u. S. Has of extended deterrence means china is essentially the only country other than north korea with an active Nuclear Program in the region. Surely i know that has not gone unnoticed in beijing. Guest yes, of course. Right now as we discussed early on, it doesnt matter where these nuclear arms are, they can be fired from anywhere, from the continental u. S. , from navy ships, airplanes and submarines. So this issue that bringing them closer is an issue for china, i dont think it is correct. As i said, there is a very stark difference. China believes it is going forward. It was very noticeable. Very little press time was given to this particular issue. Instead they doubled down on what is happening in ukraine and the fact that xi is appealing to the central asia and states to be part of this peace process, trying to assemble a group of unbiased and trustworthy countries that can intercede. So, china will stick to its idea that pushing peace is far better in terms of appealing to the global south and central asia. The u. S. Believes that offering more Nuclear Deterrence and things like that at a time when the world is already fraught with problems, trust, et cetera, will suddenly help i dont believe it is. I dont think any of my cohorts believe that more arms are the answer for everything. Just like in the u. S. , more guns are not the answer. Guest i think we should keep in mind that both south korea and the United States have stated they are interested in talks with south korea unconditionally and that north korea has not taken them up on that yet. So in the vacuum, the alliance feels that they have to take certain positions. The washington declaration is one more evolution of those positions until they can sit down and do more talking. Guest the fact is that every president since world war ii has said they are not going to allow another country, especially one north korea became an issue, to have Nuclear Weapons. Now we are all sitting here acknowledging that they do have Nuclear Weapons, that they can hit the United States. Where is the responsibility for this . It has been failed efforts, on both sides, that have led to the situation where everybody is in danger. Nastasya i want to take a pause. You just mentioned a number of president ofs said the same thing. We are talking about a number of potential different president s dealing with south korea. There is the u. S. Election next year and we are talking about the washington declaration as if it will continue indefinitely, but that may not be the case, this could be mpoot. Greg, you are talking to north koreans and south koreans. How anxious is seoul at the moment . Guest it is so important to remember that since the end of the cold war, from more than 30 years we have been dealing with these extraordinarily serious issues, north koreas nukes and Ballistic Missiles, the lives of millions at stake. Its also important to remember that in order to address the north korean conundrum, one needs the application of all elements of National Power the dime. Diplomacy, i agree, continues to be in order. We need to be open to that. We need to continue to send information to north korea. We need to continue to empower the people of north korea through information from the outside world. This information has to be customized based on north korea ns understanding, on north koreas social classification system which is based on loyalty. And military power through extended deterrence is important. And economic power through sanctions. This has to be a comprehensive package. My organization is making an argument for a human writes upfront approach, including human writes nastasya very briefly, you are in south korea, how nervous are people there about a potential trump residency . Guest oh. [laughs] i think that is a bit of a worry, probably more for economic reasons than security reasons, however. The economic policies of the Trump Administration were a problem. Some of them have carried over into the Biden Administration, and south koreans believe that has hurt them economically. That is much more important to them regarding a Trump Presidency than the security , implications. But we will have to wait and see how that plays out here. Nastasya we will indeed. I imagine beijing is watching closely as well. Is there anxiety over there . Guest i dont think they see trump as a viable candidate. He can win the nomination for the republican side, but it is very doubtful that he will unite his own party behind him, and additionally, get the independence that would be necessary for him to become president. Now it is shaping up to be of not very great race shaping up to be not a very great race. If trump can not win, he will throw his weight behind another republican he does think can win in exchange for pardon. Right now his legal troubles are mounting and it is hard to see that he will escape unscathed. Nastasya clearly an election that will have repercussions for the region that we are talking about. We will leave it there for now. Thank you to all of our guests, sean omalley, einar tangen and greg scarlatoiu. And thank you, too, for watching. Remember, you can see the program again anytime by visiting our website, aljazeera. Com. And for further discussion, go to our facebook page. That is facebook. Com ajinsidestory. You can also join the conversation on twitter. Our handle is ajinsidestory. From me, nastasya tay and the whole team here in doha, bye, for now