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Weather, to understand fuels better. So there are things that can be done at the federal level. But you know what, when you look at what happened at redding, when you look at what happened at santa rosa, when you look at what happened in ventura, where fires have gone from the wild land urban interface right into the suburbs, right into towns, thats at the state level. We have to look at our zoning. We have to look at our construction materials. We basically have to look at where we have people on the land and how we protect them. Right now we just have to thank those 14,000 firefighters that are on the ground. Incredible. Glen, thank you. Thank you for watching this hour of velshi ruhle. Ill see you tomorrow at 8 00 a. M. I turn you over to Andrea Mitchell for Andrea Mitchell reports. Former Paul Manafort deputy rick gates back on the witness stand. Reporter theyre going to say hes damaged goods, he comes to court as a convicted felon. He was convicted of lying to the fbi when agents were investigating manaforts Political Consulting in ukraine. And theyll argue that because he cut a deal with the prosecutors, he would be able say anything to save his own skin. Election day, the last special election before november. Today in ohio, will president trumps Weekend Appearance there help or hurt the republican . He definitely brought major excitement. And they were excited to see him up here. He is the president of the United States. Reporter how much is donald trump on the ballot in this race . Well, hes not. And california burning. 14,000 firefighters struggling against the states wildfires, including now the largest in california history, taking lives and leaving thousands homeless. Theres a lot of fire on the landscape and not a lot of good ways to catch it. They say evacuate, go. Take what you can grab and go. Good day, everyone. Im Andrea Mitchell in washington. President trumps former Deputy Campaign manager back on the Witness Stand today in the Paul Manafort bank and tax fraud trial. Rick gates revealing new details on criminal acts he says were committed at mr. Manaforts direction, including Falsifying Loan Documents and hiding millions of dollars in overseas accounts. The manafort legal team is waiting for their chance to crossexamine gates, hoping the jury will ignore a long paper trail and believe that their client was not involved in any of the wrongdoing. Joining me now, Nbc National Security reporter ken dilanian outside the courthouse. Former u. S. Attorney joyce va e to essentially avoid taxes. I cant stress enough, andrea, how badly this trial appears to be going for Paul Manafort. A week ago the Washington Nationals were beating the New York Mets 190 in the fifth inning. The mets had a chance to cam back, technically, but the mets won 54. Thats what it feels like, there is a chance for the defense to make a case that gates is lying but there are these documents that seem to buttress what hes saying. It will be interesting to see how they crossexamine rick gates. I wont forget that game. The defense has had their chance at bat, to keep the metaphor going. Joyce, what are you seeing, especially because of the very prominent role judge ellis is taking in keep the prosecution from what it seems to feel is key evidence . Well, the prosecution would i guess to stay in tune, have to hit the ball completely out of the park to get an acquittal in this case. Former intern. If the Documentary Evidence against manafort is so strong, why hasnt he cut a deal with prosecutors . Manafort has always had a sense of impunity, and when you watch him in the courtroom you do get the sense that manafort still believes, against all the evidence, that he can get away with it and that he can still win. And you described him, i just want to read a little bit of your description, after spending more than a month in lockup so he hadnt had access to the high style designers, but you wrote that while his hair maintains the same sweeping part, the edges are jagged in an imprecise, Jailhouse Barber way that the unincarcerated Paul Manafort would never abide. Sitting at the defendants table, he not infrequently i Interviews with political figures and news updates. But phil rucker, you say know better than anyone, the president has been trying to say oh, he was nothing, he was on the side, he was only there for a little while. And thats just not true. He was the chairman of the campaign. He was close to donald trump and had been around donald trump for years. But he was leading the Trump Campaign at a really critical moment. It was as trump was nearing the end of the republican primaries but had not yet sewn up the republican nomination. There was concern in trumps orbit that the establishment forces of the party would try to play a delegate game at the convention to install a different nominee. It was manafort who worked the system on behalf of trump at the convention and helped develop the strategy for the General Election through that summer. So he was a key figure on the campaign. He saw a lot, he knew a lot. He was in a lot of meetings including that Trump Tower Meeting with the russian lawyer. Thats why hes of such great interest to Robert Mueller and the Special Counsel Team Investigating the russia component. Ken dilanian, one of the of this trial and perhaps manafort and his attorneys learned about it when they received discovery from the government, because the government is obligated to turn over all this information on gates to manafort. But there is a little bit of doubt here. Perhaps gates was late to disclose this. And so if that in fact is the case, the later that he disclosed the embezzlement to the government, that might give manaforts lawyers some opportunity to crossexamine him. The bottom line here, andrea, is the government will suggest to the jury the reason they can trust gates is because the deal he is getting from the government is contingent on his truthful testimony during this trial. If he is found to have lied in any way, even in small detail, then he will lose the deal he has with the government, the greatly reduced sentence that he will expect the government to recommend for him. And that will be the circumstantial guarantee of gates truthfulness. So just switching gears for just a moment, another figure who reappeared over the weekend was hope hicks, traveling to ohio with the president and back. A lot of lawyers are suggesting that that really was not smart because she could subject herself to being reinterviewed by mueller. She and the president could have been talking with the president about the key explanation for the July 16th Trump Tower meeting that is of course such a key part of the mueller investigation. They could have been, andrea. We dont know if they were or not. Regardless, the optics were very bad for hope hicks because of everything thats swirling around, because she was on the plane the very weekend there was this heightened focus on the Trump Tower Meeting and the false explanation that the president dictated for his son. I know from my reporting that she was sort of there on a friendly visit. Shes living in new york now, shes not looking to come back to join the Trump White House in any official capacity. But she of course remains close to the president. His daughter ivanka, soninlaw jared kushner, others on the white house staff, were taking advantage of being nearby to check in on them. Thank you so much for being here. Coming up, the last special election before the midterms. Can an ohio democrat pull off the first upset over a republican in this district since the 1980s . Nbcs steve kornacki, the one and only, joining us at the big board right here on Andrea Mitchell reports on msnbc. Ng. Hey dad. If hed taken tylenol, hed be stopping for more pills right now. Only aleve has the strength stop tough pain for up to 12 hours with just one pill. Tylenol cant do that. Aleve. All day strong. All day long. Now introducing aleve back and muscle pain, for up to 12 hours of pain relief with just one pill. Home Political Base is here in columbus, in the past, but they cannot get behind donald trump and they cant get behind his version of washington. Youve got a democratic candidate who is not using any special sauce here, hes running on core democratic issues, leaving the Trump Bashing to others and saying if you want a more sane washington, vote for me. And it seems to be resonating. Here is one voter i talked to about this this morning. I really think the republicans have just totally caved in to trump. We need a break from somebody like that. Reporter do you normally vote for republicans or democrats . I tend to be a conservative determine. Reporter was it something about oconnor or about trump and the republicans . This is more about sending a message. The republicans have to wake up, you know . If theyre not going to be a break on this guy, then we vote for the other side. Reporter so andrea, bottom line, if thats the sentiment that prevails here, voters want that check on donald trump. You might see a democrat go to washington from this district for the first time in a very long time. As i heard you say earlier, this is kind of the stefan of snl, something for everyone. Thanks, garrett, for setting us up. Steve kornacki, lets take a closer look at how this breaks down. And especially baldersons stumble on the leave of the election, dissing voters in Franklin County. Its interesting, balderson saying that is a gaffe, sure. But it reveals the giant Cultural Divide in this district. Look at this 2016 2012 president ial result, it looks like nothing changed in four years. The reality is that everything changed politically in this district in the age of donald trump. Here is what i mean. Take a look at this map. These are the counties that all or some of them are part of the district. Balderson who says we dont want somebody from Franklin County representing us, he was saying that in his Political Base, zanesville, blue color, working class, noncollege whites who flock to trump. Where balderson is from, this is his county here. When barack obama ran in 2012, barack obama won this portion of the district. When trump ran four years later, donald trump won it by 30 points, almost 30 points. So that swing, when balderson is saying that, hes talking about this part of the district. Culturally this is lightyears from zanesville. The columbus suburbs, were talking upscale, college educated, white collar, professional class. Hillary clinton won it by 20 points. This was a major swing. When barack obama ran in 2012, it was basically a tie in the Franklin Portion of the district. Then clinton wins it by 20. So there is a cultural and demographic chasm between these parts of the district. What are we looking for tonight . Its a question of how much energy, how much turnout is going to be here in whats become the democratic heart of this district. Will that Swamp Everything . Also these voters who went from obama to trump, are they still with trump and the republicans tonight . Or are we starting to see them go back . Steve, when are we going to see results tonight . 7 30 eastern, the polls close. By 8 00 well start to get it. One cautionary note, there is a lot of early Absentee Voting in this district. That is expected to be strongly democratic. Ill expect early on youll see Danny Oconnor ahead probably by a wide margin. It doesnt mean the thing is over. It means those votes are being counted first. Thats why we have to keep watching and watching and watching you through The 11th Hour at least. I hope so. Thank you, steve kornacki, we will all be there. Coming up, party down . How will president trumps Support Impact Races around the country outside of ohio . Youre watching Andrea Mitchell reports, Election Central right here on msnbc. Youre turning onto the street when you barely clip a passing car. Minor accident no big deal, right . Wrong. Your Insurance Company is gonna raise your rate after the other car got a scratch so small you coulda fixed it with a pen. Maybe you should take that pen and use it to sign up with a different Insurance Company. For drivers with Accident Forgiveness Liberty Mutual wont raise their rates because of their first accident. Liberty mutual insurance. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty president trump, testing the limits of his popularity with the republican base, now supporting kris kobach, the controversial kansas Secretary Of State running against an incumbent governor, a republican from kansas, the president ignoring the advice of his own aids who are concerned that kris kobach is so unpopular. Joining us now, the new cohost of the new words matter podcast. And jim massino, welcome both. What were watching, violating what used to be the commandment of ronald reagan, you do not get involved in a primary and oppose another republican. Thats the problem with donald trump, no one ever really knows exactly what hes going to do at any given moment. While it seemed possible he might endorse kris kobach, he was advised against it because there is a sitting republican governor. Donald trump has such strong views on his personal allies and the need to support people who strongly stuck with him, that you really can be nothing less than a trumpab so lawsuiti ab s his endorsement. People talk about the trump effect. Theres really two trump effects. One inside the republican primary and one with General Election voters. Inside the republican primary voters, hes changing these races. Look at florida recently with ron desantis. Exactly right. Another race, former congressman adam putnam is by far the best General Election candidate but trump endorsed a guy who cant win the General Election. Democrats are sitting back, having a great time, loving this, watching donald trump nominate people like kris kobach who probably cant win a General Election. Elise, what does this mean for the mitt romney, jeb bush traditional republicans . Theyre basically facing extinction if theyre not already basically extinct. Mark sanford of North Carolina voted with the president pretty much all the time, and he was ousted in his primary. You see strong candidates like that that just even the slightest dissent against donald trump, they are no longer tolerated or welcomed in the Republican Party by donald trump, who is, for better or worse but i would say for worse, the standard bearer these days for the Republican Party. And taking a page from meet the press, chuck went through the data download, and weave seen a big increase in the number of democrats voting since the midterms of 2014 through the june primaries, 13. 6 Million People voted in democratic primaries, that was an 84 increase over 2014. During that same period in republican primaries, there was also an increase, 10. 4 Million People voting. That was up 24 since 2014. Now, we dont want to put too much stock in these numbers, but jim messina, what does this say to you about democrats hopes in the midterms . That were looking at a blue wave. In 2006 the democrats took the house for the first time in 12 years and took the senate for the first time in eight years. Year seeing in race after race, 46 seats around the country have gone from red to blue in the past year. And in every single one of those raises, including alabama, virginia governors, et cetera, youre seeing mammoth democratic turnout. Tonight in ohio is another good bellwether. Even if Democrats Dont Win tonight, there are 60 congressional seats up in november that are more democratic than the seat that is currently tied in ohio. This blue wave is starting to look bigger and bigger. If dems win tonight, if youre a republican, youre in serious trouble. If youre a republican, elise, what are the issues youre hoping the democrats stumble on . Lets say youre a traditional republican. Some of the issues that they perhaps, if you look at Danny Oconnor in ohio, should not be talking about. They should not be talking about mueller, they should not be talking about trump under fire on these legal issues, they should be talking about pocketbook issues, right . Right. And they shouldnt talk about abolishing i. C. E. They need to keep the strength away from donald trump on security. It hasnt been resonating, these tax cuts. They only have been getting more unpopular with voters. So its hard for republicans to brag about and laud the tax cuts and theyre increasingly unpopular with the electorate. Jim, i was listening to Charlie Cook Last Night with lawrence, i believe. Is this now a case where this is a small blue wave, where lets say they win the house but by such a small number that you still have a Center Of Gravity with mark meadows and jim jordan and the others in the Freedom Caucus and you cant get anything done, or its a large blue wave . Thats the question. History teaches us were probably looking at somewhere between 25 and 50 seats. 25 would be a very small wave. They need 23 seats to take it back. Usually the house moves back and forth on big waves. I think were probably looking at somewhere north of 30. And thats still not a huge majority for either party. I think what the country is saying is, we want to be able to work together, we want to put a brake on donald trump, hes starting to scare swing voters. And well see how big that wave is in november. Of course the issue is whether this becomes a National Race with trump as the main figure, but also whether democrats can figure out their own, you know, mood swings, lets say, between the progressive wing of the party, what happened in the bronx, and what happened in Western Pennsylvania with the conor lamb district, whether they can tailor their message to the districts rather than figure out their National Message this far ahead of 2020, elise. You look at the candidates who have successfully navigated local races, and they have managed to, you know, speak to the concerns of their people. Doug jones is the premier example of that, even though he was running against an historically terrible candidate in roy moore. But also conor lamb, the other example you gave. If National Democrats give space to local candidates to tailor their messages, they are in a much better place. Jim messina and elise jordan, its great to have you both, thanks to both of you very much. And now a terrible situation on our west coast, california, more than 14,000 firefighters are battling 18 major blazes across the state, one of which has become the biggest the state has ever seen. Here is nbcs correspondent. Reporter this has become the largest fire in state history. Some 450 square miles has now been torched. Thats larger than new york city and philadelphia combined. This fire is 30 contained but still threatening 11,000 structures. Its a blowtorch on the front lines. Firefighters say today they will be dealing with tripledigit weather. They say they wont is containment for a matter of weeks. Back to you. Miguel almaguer, thank you. The president tweeted about the wildfires, blaming environmental laws and water policy in california. Well talk about that, and why instead of offering home, the president is criticizing californias governor, democrat jerry brown. When my hot water heater failed, she was pregnant, inlaws were coming, a little bit of water, it really it rocked our world. I had no idea the amount of damage that water could do. We called usaa. And they greeted me as they always do. Sergeant baker, how are you . They were on it. It was unbelievable. Having insurance is something everyone needs, but having usaa now thats a privilege. Were the bakers and were usaa members for life. Usaa. Get your insurance quote today. The doctor just for a shot. With Neulasta Onpro patients get their day back. To be with family, or just to sleep in. Strong chemo can put you at risk of serious infection. 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Oh yeah one bottle has the Grease Cleaning Power of three bottles of this other liquid. A drop of dawn and grease is gone. Change, julia . Pretty close, andrea. We understand this will be published in the federal register in coming weeks. It doesnt need to go through congress. What theyre doing is redefining the term Public Charge that was first used in the 1800s, Think Ellis Island time. They didnt want immigrants coming in who would be a burden on the country and not able to support themselves. But under this new rule, they would vastly expand that definition, meaning that any immigrant likely to become a Public Charge, whether they themselves have been on a social program or someone in their family has or their household, that could now be used against them getting citizenship or green cards. These are people who entered the u. S. Legally and are following the steps. What a lot of Immigration Lawyers have pointed out is the programs on this list, the drafts that have been described, it seems that the programs actually would increase that Poverty Level. Right now if you make about 125 of the Poverty Level, that may hurt you getting a green card or citizenship. Now when you throw in programs like obamacare, you could make as much as 250 above the Poverty Level and still have a hard time getting citizenship. Again, obamacare, s. N. A. P. , food stamps for a lot of families, as well as some tax credits theyve been using for some time. These are all things that a lot of migrant families depend on, particularly when theyre doing low wage jobs that a lot of people born in the United States dont want to take. Ruth, this goes against the whole well, more than 100 years of history of what we how we treat immigrants and how we welcome them to our shores and how we provide these basic support systems. You know, the meanspiritedness of the Trump Administration, particularly when it comes to immigration policy, just seems to know no limits. We see the parents and children. We saw this just appalling story of the wife of a veteran, Service Members being deported after years of living separating a family. Separating families. And now this, which is one of the examples in julias story which she didnt mention is the immigrant father of an American Citizen, who the American Citizen daughter is disabled. And so she receives public benefits. She was born here. She is entitled to those benefits. But that is being used or potentially being used against the father. Were a better country than this. And its just appalling. Jeff, what is the political resonance of this, though, does it reverberate in the midterms and in other ways . How do you see it being a benefit to the white house to continue doing this . It certainly might reverberate. One of the key points here is the word legal. These are immigrants who came to the country legally. When the president cracks down or uses rhetoric against illegal immigration, thats very popular with the base. But talking along these same lines and following this program that stephen miller, one of the president s top advisers, has been pushing, also attacks in a way these legal immigrants, because they want to reduce the number of people who are here or are allowed to stay here legally. That could resonate with the base as well. Julia and team, i also want to talk about what we referenced earlier. We saw the devastation in california, the wildfires, the worst in state history. The president Tweeting Today and blaming jerry brown, the beleaguered governor, saying he must allow the vast amounts of water coming from the north to not be foolishly diverted into the pacific ocean. I dont know what hes talking about, but apparently, julia, this is a republican issue and has nothing to do with fighting the fires. Yeah, i mean, this is an example of a president who is taking anything thats making headlines, whether they be natural disasters, and using them to try to pull in people to and really make these issues divisive and make them very political. I never thought of a wildfire as political before but it seems were able to make it that way in this case. And especially if you think about certain districts in california that are major Swing Districts going into the midterms, it seems that this would resonate as really annum pathetic twe the an unempathe. Peter gleick wrote that the idea that somehow State Water Policies are leading to a shortage of water for fighting the fires is too stupid to rebut. The Los Angeles Times writes that the most likely explanation is that the president is confused by demands for more i go for more Irrigation Water hes hearing from republican officeholders in california. Fire agencies havent been complaining about a lack of water, especially water, quote, diverted to the pacific. The key thing there is the firefighters are not complaining about a lack of water, that is simply not the issue. There is a dispute in california about water policy between republicans and governor brown, about water thats being diverted for agriculture and water thats going to the ocean to help keep up and replenish fish stocks. But that is a separate issue. It is not related to fires. It has nothing to do with fires. And by the way, could we point out that people are losing their homes, people firefighters are losing their lives, others whose job is not to fight fires, family members, homeowners, are losing their lives. Why do we not hear any hint, i know this is a dumb way to ask the question, but why is there not any inter ohint of empathy e president for these americans who are in harms way . He only knows how to point fingers at political opponents. Weve also asked the white house for clarification on that. And we got nothing. You got nothing. And the fact is hes on his beautifully manicured estate in new jersey where im sure theres no shortage of water. Julia, it seems to me water has been an issue in california ever since the movie chinatown which wrote about the Water Disputes in the 20s and 30s. Anyway, thank you all. Julia, congratulations on another big exclusive for n nbcnews. Com. Thank you. Coming up, short term solution. The white house continues to chip away at obamacare, now touting cheap medical plans that critics say amount to junk insurance. Nbcs Anne Thompson breaks it down for us next right here on Andrea Mitchell reports. Stay with us. An Energy Company helping cars emit less. Making cars lighter, its a good place to start, advanced oils for those hardworking parts. Fuels that go further so drivers pump less. Improving efficiency is what we do best. Energy lives here. 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So what makes an aarp Medicare Supplement plan unique . Well, these are the only Medicare Supplement plans endorsed by aarp and thats because they meet aarps high standards of quality and service. Youre also getting the great features that any Medicare Supplement plan provides. For example, with any Medicare Supplement plan you may choose any doctor or hospital that accepts medicare patients. You can even visit a specialist. With this type of plan, there are no networks or referrals needed. Also, a Medicare Supplement plan goes with you when you travel anywhere in the u. S. A free Decision Guide will provide a breakdown of aarp Medicare Supplement plans, and help you determine the plan that works best for your needs and budget. Call today to request yours. Lets recap. There are 3 key things you should keep in mind. One if youre turning 65, you may be eligible for medicare but it only covers about 80 of your Medicare Part b costs. A Medicare Supplement plan may help pay for some of the rest. Two this type of plan allows you to keep your doctor as long as he or she accepts medicare patients. And three these are the only Medicare Supplement plans endorsed by aarp. Learn more about why you should choose an aarp Medicare Supplement plan. Call today for a free guide. But he has plans today. Ain. Hey dad. So he took aleve. If hed taken tylenol, hed be stopping for more pills right now. Only aleve has the strength to stop tough pain for up to 12 hours with just one pill. Aleve. All day strong. President trump lost his Battle To Kill Obamacare in a series of votes in congress. Now hes trying to undermine it administratively by letting Insurance Companies sell scale down, bare bones plans that do not include basic coverage, including preexisting conditions. That would eliminate coverage for as many as 20 Million People. Critics are calling this junk insurance. Reporter for the 28 million uninsured americans, shortterm health plans may sound like an attract imalternative. Certainly the Trump Administration is playing up the positive. They may be as much as 50 to 80 cheaper than the Obamacare Exchange plan. Reporter for example, in los angeles, short. Term premiums start at i 141 a month versus 264 for the cheapest obamacare policy. Critics warn you get what you pay for. People really need to know exactly whats in these policies. The reason theyre inexpensive is because they dont cover very much. Reporter what dont they cover . The Kaiser Family foundation found 43 offer no Mental Health coverage. 62 dont cover Substance Abuse treatment. 71 Dont Cover Outpatient prescription drugs. And 100 , all of them, dont cover maternity care. The policies may also contain annual or Lifetime Benefit caps. Unlike obamacare plans. We reached out to some of americas largest insurance providers, but none would comment on camera. In a statement, Americas Health insurance plans, an Industry Trade group, said consumers should clearly understand what their plan does and does not cover. The new requirement for shortterm plans to make clearer disclosures to consumers is an important improvement. That knowledge, critics say, is crucial. In the case of a lot of Cancer Patients, when they get a cancer diagnosis, they found out they were not covered for things they thought they were going to be covered for. Thats the problem. Reporter critics fear the alternative plans could divide Insurance Risk pools. With younger healthier people opting for shortterm coverage, while driving up premiums on obamacare plans because they have older, sicker patients. The better solution would be to have everybody in the same insurance pool. Nbcs Anne Thompson joining us now. Anne, that was the whole theory behind the obamacare, the american Health Insurance plan, to have the larger insurance pool. So you, you know, scale back the cost for everyone. Right, thats why there was individual mandate, andrea, so that younger, healthier people, would pay into that insurance pool. Now, because that mandate has been repealed and now because they have extended the time that these shortterm policies can be offered under obamacare, you could only get these shortterm Health Care Policies or under the obama administration, could only get these shortterm health care policies for three months. Now the Trump Administration is saying you can get them for a year and you can extend to three years. So the fear is that people will go and buy these policies because theyll buy them on price, not looking at whats covered, and if they get sick, theyre going to find out these policies dont cover very much. Democrats are at least talking about making this a big issue in the midterms because it is a significant change in what was obamacare. I dont know if you have seen that on the road in terms of a political debate, but it really is a basic issue that democrats say theyre going to embrace. It is. And the other thing to remember about these shortterm Health Care Policies is that they dont cover preexisting conditions. And that was one of the big benefits or one of the big positives that obamacare stressed, is that policies, then, did have to cover preexisting conditions. With these policies, they dont cover preexisting conditions. Some may offer a 500 benefit or some kind of coverage eventually, but they will cost you more. But as far as these barebone policy, no preexisting conditions. And that will be an issue for a lot of americans. And how do they define preexisting conditions . Anything you had before. If you had cancer, if you had diabetes, if you had a heart attack before, that would not be covered under these policies. A really important consumer warning. Thank you, Anne Thompson, great to see you. 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