Barnstorm the hawkeye state, introducing them to voters. Hello iowa he willo iowa hello hello iowa after the Iowa Caucuses of course comes the New Hampshire primary, then the nevada caucuses, and then the South Carolina primary. All four fights are in february. And all four fights could decide the fate of the entire democratic primary. Or they could set this contest on a past of total chaos and confusion. As axios noted earlier this month, the democrats say there is a scenario where Pete Buttigieg wins iowa, Elizabeth Warren wins New Hampshire, Bernie Sanders wins nevada and joe biden wins South Carolina. Its not implausible. Michael bloomberg is all in on the super tuesday strategy so he isnt even factoring into all this just yet. All this hour well take an indepth look at those allimportant early state contests. Well look ahead to a general election matchup against the president with who else . There are four hurdles in order to sort of get democrats to understand the pieces of the electorate they need, whether its midwesterners in iowa, learning how to do grassroots stuff, appealing to independents in New Hampshire, the first time you get to do that in primary, latinos, an important constituency in nevada, africanamericans in South Carolina. When you think about these first four states, dont assume theyre four states randomly on a map. There is reason to this randomness. Ann henderson, the news director of news iowa, joins me. Eugene scott from the washington post, and msnbc contributor and former rnc chairman Michael Steele. Kay, first, let me delve into something about iowa that seems different this time, that is this desperation of the Iowa Democratic party to create a set of rules to appease National Democrats and progressive democrats that this will be a much more open process, much more diverse process, and theyve done so much with it, that its possible we have two different winners on caucus night because theyre going to track delegates and turnout. How confusing is all of this going to be . It may be very confusing. Or there could be a really significant result if one of these candidates sort of sprints out ahead of the rest of the pack. There will be delegate decisions released first and then well see the raw vote totals. Well see the raw vote totals from the first alignment where people go into parts of the room and support a candidate and a group. Then well see this second raw vote total if there is a realignment on a second round of voting. So actually, to complicate things more, there could be three victors. So you make gave us a third way to really confuse things on caucus night. Congratulations. If youre a data nerd, we can do all sorts of analytics and all of that. Exactly. Were in late december. And theres a new guy that no one ever heard of when this campaign started, mayor pete, who is ahead. Youve done this for a while. Pete buttigieg. Is he howard dean or barack obama . We dont yet know that. But hes been laying the groundwork in iowa for quite some time. He was here 27 months ago for his first swing through the state. Thats when he was trying to become the chairman of the Democratic National committee. Ive actually had some people who work on other campaigns say, gosh, we wish he were the chairman of the dnc, we wouldnt be dealing with him now. Hes a prolific fundraiser. Hes been a great campaigner. But as you mentioned, you dont want to peak too early. So all eyes have been focused on one of iowas neighbors, iowans like a neighbor, they liked barack obama, they liked dick gephardt. This time around theyre looking at Amy Klobuchar. And shes visited each of iowas 99 counties. You know whats funny about her, i had a bit of an 04 flashback with her, and the person in this role at this time was a guy named john edwards. While he wasnt a neighbor, he was sitting there where everybody said, we really like him but he hadnt bump yet, gets the Des Moines Register endorsement, and had it not been for the dean scream, edwards r edwards carey would have been more of a fight. Does klobuchar have that potential . I think in the debate earlier this month you saw that she did go up against mayor pete. She had more time because there were fewer candidates onstage to sort of present herself with that midwest sensibility, with a little bit of humor thrown in. Thats really working for her on the Campaign Stage here in iowa. The other thing is she has been staffing up. Shes been raising more money so shes able to hire more people. Shes hired key people from the beto campaign. Shes hired people to come in from other states. So i think she is the one to watch at this point. Very quickly. Impeachment, is it just sort of background noise, or does it have is it a motivating factor . Or is it just sort of an it is . I think the real impact of impeachment on this race will be, it could stall candidates like klobuchar and booker and warren who will be stuck in washington, d. C. At an impeachment trial. Very quickly, on turnout, the highest turnout ever was in 08. Pretty good turnout in 16, even, between bernie and clinton, that got to about 170. Will this top 08, will this get to 250,000 . Its hard to say that right now. Ive been trying to Pay Attention to the Voter Registration numbers in iowa. And i dont see an uptick in Voter Registration yet. My suspicion is campaigns like a Warren Campaign and the Buttigieg Campaign have been out there identifying new voters, theyre holding onto those voters and well see that result on caucus night. All right. Kay henderson, cant wait to see you when we get out to iowa. Wont be very long now. Well just get this impeachment trial out of the way and well get there. Thank you very much. Let me get the panel in here. Eugene, you know, every four years people try to say, maybe iowa wont matter much this time. Here we go again. The person that wins this first, whether it is biden, he shuts people down, or buttigieg, he shoots into the top tier, iowa will matter again. Absolutely. Midwestern voters matter, they always have. But they really matter when you have candidates competing for the white house whose brand is in part, im a midwesterner and thats what America Needs right now, someone who is, you know, mild mannered and even tempered, who is a unifier and who can Pay Attention to people like them, give them the attention they need and let them know that you have solutions for their concerns. One thing thats interesting about iowa, theres been conversation about iowa not needing to be first because theres so much emphasis on diversity in the Democratic Party and iowa is not the most diverse state compared to other states. Ive done some reporting and read how many iowa voters actually are mindful of diversity issues and it pushes back on the idea that diversity is only a concern if you are a woman, if you are a person of color, if youre some kind of a minority. Were seeing white people in iowa saying, we want to get behind someone who can win. There is evidence that white democrats are more sensitive on nonwhite issues than nonwhite democrats. When its topics like justice reform, youre seeing liberals in big cities addressing issues in ways that you would assume that black people workiare takie lead in and thats not what everything supports. Is iowa playing the role that you had hoped as a democrat, so far . It is. And to the point you just made, there was a big New York Times story that ran recently that talked about how iowa caucusgoers are very mindful to make sure theyre doing their part to pick someone who will do well in states that are not entirely white states but also someone who can a do well and potentially be the nominee for the entire Democratic Party. I do think in that sense iowa is doing its job there. Also at the same time, i do think the person who wins iowa, because there has been such a mix in terms of front runners in this election primary so far, i think the person who wins iowa is going to really, really matter. To the point you just made, it will matter more than it did in 2016, possibly more so than it did in 2008. Unless you get a 2016like result that its so close that two people can claim victory. I have a very contrarian view of things. Good. I dont think iowa is as important as it used to be. I think it will play the role that a lot of people think it will in this election cycle because of the external and internal dynamics politically, both inside and outside the Democratic Party. If iowans were so concerned about the diversity piece, then where is Kamala Harris, where is cory booker, where is Julian Castro . Theyre not even in the top five. So that dynamic for me, its nice on paper and its a good talking point for people to share, but at the end of the day, iowa voters will do what iowa voters do. I dont think its dispositive of where this case will ultimately go. Eugene, its not lost on me that if you look at the Democratic Candidates who have become, its been midwesterners and southerners, trying to be overly appealing, a bit nice or charming or whatever you want to call it, southerners play well in the midwest, midwesterners play well in these places and theres something about buttigieg and klobuchar, and barack obama, he won every state but two that touched illinois. Its true, this is a very policyrich debate and everyone has ideas and plans, and were talking about it. At the end of the day there are voters who are measuring their support by, can i have a beer with you, can i get coffee with you. People in neighboring states tend to know how to connect to people who live around the corner. All right, guys. Well take a break. Well travel from iowa to the route we all have to do, take a nonstop to manchester. Up next its New Hampshire. The Granite State has a history of not agreeing with iowa and even a second place finish there can be a game changer like it was for bill clinton back in 1992. He did not win the New Hampshire primary. But he won the New Hampshire primary after he got trumped in the Iowa Caucuses. I think we know enough to say with some certainty that New Hampshire tonight has made bill clinton the comeback kid. When you move homes, you move more than just yourself. Thats why xfinity has made taking your internet and tv with you a breeze. Really . Yup. You can transfer your Service Online in about a minute. You can do that . Yeah. And with twohour Service Appointment windows, its all on your schedule. Awesome. So while moving may still come with its share of headaches. No kidding. Were doing all we can to make moving simple, easy, awesome. Go to xfinity. Com moving to get started. Hello, New Hampshire hello, New Hampshire aloha, New Hampshire hello, New Hampshire, great to be here. It is good to be back in New Hampshire. It is so good to be here. Here in New Hampshire. Welcome back. Just eight days after the iowa caucus, New Hampshire will take its place as the first in the nation primary. Being from a neighboring state has spelled success for candidates from New Hampshire in past primaries. This year both Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren have those nearby advantages. As senator sanders knows well, success in the New Hampshire primary does not mean a lock on the nomination. Dante scala, happy quadrennial primary season to you, sir. Thank you, sir. So i have to admit, i think there are so many different scenarios of what could happen in New Hampshire. And i want to run down a few of them by asking you some questions, which is this. First, just forget any who has the best natural constituency in New Hampshire of the two neighbors, warren or sanders . I think right now its Bernie Sanders. By virtue of being on the ballot four years ago, and also so far, i think sanders is showing a better job of attracting a coalition of voters in New Hampshire, including young people still, progressive voters, and even some White Working Class voters who still vote with the Democratic Party, whereas Elizabeth Warren so far is in something of a box right now. Shes found a niche among those progressive, welleducated voters but shes having trouble breaking out of that. Im curious, the rising number of residents, of former massachusetts residents that live in southern New Hampshire in particular, is that a net positive for her or a net negative . I think thats a net negative. One group im watching closely are those voters in southern New Hampshire, maybe half an hour from the massachusetts border. They live in affluent towns. Oftentimes those towns lean republican in the general election. But they might be undeclared voters, theyre twoincome, collegeeducated families, and they will tend toward moderation. They may not like President Trump at all but theyre not going to be eager to vote for socalled radical progressive democrats. So they might be looking at one of those moderate democrats, whether its biden, klobuchar, or especially right now Pete Buttigieg. That brings me to the other unique test that New Hampshire brings and why its such a when you put it in as one of the first four hurdles you have to clear, its a good one whether youre a republican or a democrat, and that is winning over independents, undeclared voter and possibly even republicans who decide on primary day to vote in the democratic primary. First, have you seen much evidence of campaigns actively trying to appeal to that group of voters, beyond just messaging but literally door contacts, looking for republicans for buttigieg or things like that . I havent seen republicans for buttigieg, but youre certainly seeing mayor pete with a ground game thats been developing for months now. And keep in mind there is a republican primary. But no one expects it to be competitive. So i expect there is a very good chance that record turnout, eclipsing 2008 totals in New Hampshire, so there could be as many as 300,000 voters in the democratic primary next february. Thats going to include in 08 we had two competitive primaries that did that. So you expect it even higher than 08 . On the democratic side, yes, around 300,000. So there are a lot of voters who are going to show up who are just tuning in right now. And they could be eager to vote for the new kid on the block. And if Pete Buttigieg succeeds in iowa, he comes here with momentum, he could very well go two for two for the first two contests. So theres a fifth candidate in iowa that a lot of us think could pull this off, do the slingshot, pull the rick santorum, right, where they didnt campaign anywhere else but there, and thats Amy Klobuchar. If she pulls that off, finishes first or second, gets that momentum, give me a sense of her operation there. Will it be too little, too late . Or could it super charge her to at least get in the top three if she pulls off an iowa upset . I think an iowa upset could yield klobuchar dividends in New Hampshire. Shes got a decent operation here which could translate, i think especially among former Hillary Clinton voters from 2016, you know, women who are in their 40s, 50s, i think they could find they voted for jeanne shaheen, they voted for maggie hassan, the two incumbent senators. They would find Amy Klobuchar a very nice fit for what they would like to see in the white house. Look, i dont have a lot of time, but weve barely mentioned biden. Youve noted hes not even advertising in New Hampshire, hes got a finance issue, that may be part of the problem, so hes focusing on iowa and South Carolina. Do you have a sense they know theyre not winning in new. And thats why they have a light touch . I think its the case that joe biden you know, john kerry endorsed joe biden a few weeks ago. I think biden will try to take a page out of kerrys playbook. You remember in 2004, kerry decamped, went to iowa, and came back and won New Hampshire after surprising. I think biden hopes to do the same, win iowa or surprise in iowa, then come here and a lot of New Hampshire democrats say, okay, i guess its biden. Dr. Scala, you did exactly how i had hoped and then some. Good to see you, sir, well be there soon, looking forward to it. Sound good, sir, same here. Up next, its a little bit of a longer flight. Were going west. When it comes to the nevada caucuses, all bets are off. Im happy to give you the tour, i love doing it. Hey jay. Jay . Charlotte oh hi. He helped me set up my watch lists. Oh, hes terrific. Excellent tennis player. Byebye. I recognize that voice. Annie . Yeah she helped me find the right bonds for my income strategy. Youre very popular around here. Theres a birthday going on. Karl he took care of my 401k rollover. Wow, you call a lot. Yeah, well its my money were talking about here. Joining us for karaoke later . Ah, id love to, but people get really emotional when i sing. Help from a team that will exceed your expectations. Thats ensure max protein, with high protein and 1 gram sugar. Its a situp, banana bend at the waist im tryin keep it up. Youll get there. Whoahoahoa 30 grams of protein, and one gram of sugar. Ensure max protein. Hello, nevada hello, nevada it is fantastic to be here with nevada democrats. Nevada democrats its tremendous to be back here in nevada. Its good to be in nevada. The silver state. Thank you, nevada. Thank you, nevada. Youve done a hell of a job here out in nevada. Welcome back to this special edition of meet the press. Were looking ahead to the first four fights. After iowa and New Hampshire comes nevada. Dont say nevahda unless you want to suffer the wrath of my next guest. Neva nevada has a sizable his panic population. T john, good to see you. Let me start this way. These caucuses, this is the third i guess competitive version of these now. Does this feel like a statewide event right now . The last a couple of times it seems like it was getting its sea legs. Do you feel like this is now a statewide contest . I think so, chuck. The democrats have put more and more work into this each time but i still think theres some uncertainty about how its going to go off, not just the uncertainty of the election itself, but theyve added early voting this time, and theyre trying to really juice the turnout. Its uncertain how many people are going to come out, how its all going to work. But this is, as you know, chuck, one of the most welloiled democratic machines in the country and theyre pretty confident they can carry it off. Look, im pretty confident, watching it the last couple of times at this point, i was skeptical at first, and it seems at each time smoother. Harry reid has been sort of the godfather, the guy everybody has to visit, pay homage to. Is he going to put his finger on the scale for anybody . Its a very good question. He keeps insisting hes not going to endorse before the caucus. But as you remember, chuck, when Bernie Sanders was running against Hillary Clinton, he said the same thing, they were his colleagues, he likes them both. And then after bernie won in New Hampshire and Hillary Clintons lead started evaporating here, reid made a phone call to the Culinary Union, which as many of your viewers know is the most powerful force here in democratic politics, and did put his thumb on the scale behind the scenes, and that helped clinton hold on. And that could have been a serious problem for her if bernie had won here, gathering the momentum for New Hampshire, as you know. Who has made the most inroads with the Culinary Union . Theres always the Old School Way of working a union, biden knows how to do that. I note grassroots in this union is younger, its hispanic, and im going to guess sanders has some inroads in there. Are they going to end up being split, the Culinary Union . Its another good question, chuck. And i think its hard to tell. The culinary also likes to play it almost as coy as harry reid, were busy, were doing contract negotiations, weve got other things going on. But they are now, this time, doing something that i dont recall them doing in the past, chuck, which is inviting each of the candidates to come in and do town halls with their members. Of course the members are not sheep, theyre not just going to follow what their leaders say to do. But the big issue for them, as you know, is medicare for all. The culinary has negotiated some of the best Health Care Benefits in the country for its workers. There is a fear there about lubricatio losing their benefits under medicare for all. Warren and sanders have had to make the case, dont worry, you wont lose your benefits, where is biden exploits that. Whether it makes a difference in the election, its still too early to tell, chuck. We havent mentioned the mayor. Hes got a good presence in New Hampshire, a really good presence in iowa. We know hes got money, im guessing he has a decent presence. His name hasnt rolled off your lips yet. Are you talking about Bernie Sanders . Really . Is mayor buttigieg just not making an impression in nevada . Actually i think those are the two most underrated candidates, chuck, both the mayor and Bernie Sanders. Let me talk about the mayor first since thats who you asked me about. He has not done well in the polls here. We had a poll done for the independent about a month ago, it showed joe biden with a tenpoint lead over warren and sanders and mayor pete is still in single digits. But, and this is a big but, chuck, he has set up the infrastructure here. He has dozens of staffers. These been out here a lot to take advantage of any momentum from iowa and New Hampshire. Thats going to be important because what happens in iowa and New Hampshire is going to affect nevada. Having said that, i think that Bernie Sanders may be an underrated force here, especially if he can do well again in New Hampshire, coming here. You know, Bernie Sanders has these adherents and theyre going nowhere else, chuck. They are fervently devoted to him. If he can win New Hampshire, he has those folks here and he has more professionals running his operation here than he did before, some former harry reid acolytes are helping him. So i think both sanders and mayor pete, who are not showing up in the top two in most of the polls here, could do well here. And you mentioned the latino vote could be important for Bernie Sanders. And it could be a key to california next door. Jon ralston, my friend, sorry about your wolverines, i had to do it once, but im guessing youre loving your bills, so thats awesome. The bills are doing well. They sure are. Thanks, chuck, happy holidays. You got it, you too, man. Our upcoming nbc news debate will be hosted in las vegas in partnership with jons organization, the wonderful news organization, the nevada independent, thats february 19th. Watch it right here, after the first two contests have actually taken place, a debate after results. Up next, were heading to South Carolina, the end of the road in our fight for the first four. Last time it was the end of the road for the man who many thought was going to be the republican partys nominee. South carolina is always full of surprises. They make up their mind late, and they do shape elections. So thats why we came here. The people of iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina have spoken and i really respect their decision. So tonight i am suspending my campaign. Ight i am suspending m Campaign Like rich, butterpoached Maine Lobster and crispy crabstuffed shrimp rangoon. How will you pick just 4 of 10 . It wont be easy. Better hurry in. We dont see who youre against, our or for, whether tomorrow will be light or dark, all we see in you, is a spark we see your kindness and humanity. The strength of each community. The more we look the more we find, the sparks that make america shine. Wean air force veteran made of doing whats right,. Not whats easy. So when a hailstorm hit, usaa reached out before he could even inspect the damage. Thats how you do it right. Usaa insurance is made just the way martins family needs it with hasslefree claims, he got paid before his neighbor even got started. Because doing right by our members, thats whats right. Usaa. What youre made of, were made for. Usaa were going to do well in South Carolina. South carolina. South carolina. South carolina. South carolina. South carolina. Welcome back. South carolina will be the fourth primary contest of 2020 or fourth contest, second primary, but it will be the first state in the south to vote and the first state in which africanamerican voters will comprise the majority of that primary electorate. That will likely help former Vice President joe biden who leads the democratic field by double digits among black voters according to recent polls. It could potentially also be a rough place for Pete Buttigieg who while hes leading in iowa, hes been struggling to win over black voters. The Columbia Bureau chief for the courier in South Carolina, eugene scott, adrienne elrod, and Michael Steele are back as well. Theres a part of me that thinks, boy, this race is never going to be that close, its going to be impossible for them to catch joe biden at the end of the day, theres just none of the other three major candidates here who have any kind of traction. Ideal that conventional wisdom be wrong . Well, joe bidens lead has been shrinking in South Carolina over the year. Essentially at one point he held a lead well into the 30s. Its now down to 7 according to the latest Courier Research poll. Do you sense which other candidate is making inroads among africanamericans, and if so, is it specific, is it by age that youre seeing a split . What splits are you seeing . Essentially the africanamerican vote is still very solidly behind the former Vice President at this point. With Kamala Harris getting out of the race, the biggest candidate among africanamerican voters was Elizabeth Warren, shes third in our latest poll, neck and neck with Bernie Sanders who is also doing solidly with africanamericans in South Carolina at this point. Organizationally, i know how much effort biden has put down there, if hes got spare time and its not iowa, he tries to go to South Carolina. Who has a Good Organization and who in the top tier have you been surprised have not been so good there . In the top tier, warren, sanders, biden, they have Good Organizations. Cory booker has a very solid organization here. Pete buttigieg has been building a Good Organization here, a solid one at this point. Hes playing catchup, he hasnt been here as often as other candidates, but hes coming here more frequently and hes trying to build that support base as hes seeing success in the other early primary states. Finally, is there any issue thats cutting through more than any other . Health care remains the top issue among likely democratic voters which is why i think sanders and warren have both been doing very solidly and have been eating into that lead with joe biden at this point. In fact its interesting, if one of them were to drop out, they probably would surpass joe biden in support in South Carolina based on what were seeing with the polling. Its going to be interesting to see if that dynamic changes. Thats interesting, that it can happen there, because that dynamic is different between the two of them depending on a states electorate. Andy shain, the other important part of South Carolina is a chance for us to warm up after iowa and New Hampshire, as long as we dont have too many weird cold fronts there. Andy shain, thanks, much appreciated. Aid rehe kn adrienne elrod, South Carolina is joe bidens firewall. Yes. I dont think hes going to lose South Carolina. He possibly ends up winning it bigger than we think and its sort of like the way obama won it over hillary, it ends up almost not being relevant. Hillary clinton won resoundingly in South Carolina over Bernie Sanders. We were obviously very excited about that in the campaign because we had narrowly won iowa, we lost New Hampshire, we barely one nevada and in South Carolina we had a blowout. That moment carried us into super tuesday. That will are the interesting dynamic there because you also look at the fact that youre not going to have a clear front runner coming out of the first four states. Youve got the first four taken care of. Super tuesday, not trying to jump ahead here, but bloomberg is spending so much money, how are those dynamics going to come to pass . If buttigieg hits the mark in one of the first two, were going to find out if he can do something. Whether theres that obama thing, you know, you get love in iowa, or New Hampshire, and it sling shots you to South Carolina. Maybe. This is not that electorate. And hes not that candidate. As much as i like him and know him, i think that there are systemic issues in the black community relative to him that he hasnt overcome them by now, i just dont see that worm turning before South Carolina. Eugene, can anybody really make inroads with the africanamerican vote other than biden, of who we have left . Bernie sanders hasnt had a great history winning over africanamerican voters. Elizabeth warren hasnt ever really had to appeal to africanamerican voters. Pete buttigieg has and we know how hes done. It feels like biden will be here by default. People can make inroads. Can they replace biden . I dont think thats the case. I think what a lot of black voters are doing is making themselves more familiar with the candidate options they have, even if theyre not going to back them. Whats really interesting is how early people have been talking about who they would like to see as Vice President. Before even some of the debates were happening, or who they even want to see in the cabinet. So weve seen people on the ground paying attention to candidates but are they going to be their first choice more than biden . Probably not. If biden starts floating things like stacey abrams, does that come across as desperate, or is that a smart strategy . I think it depends on the timing and where. If youre a president ial candidate, especially if youre the frontrunner, you never want to make it seem like youve got to have a certain person for your vp to propel you forward and keep that frontrunner status, you have to be careful about that. You have to make sure youre not putting the cart before the horse. There were times during the campaign, the primary cycle, that we thought, oh, this person might be better as the vp but as the primary played out we realized where our strengths and weaknesses were. The other factor, we didnt know who our republican nominee was going to be, this time around we do. Michael, what will be the most of the which state matters to you more to see who can do a general election . South carolina. Thats what you want to see . Yeah, i want to see how you stir the pot in South Carolina. I get the other states and i appreciate it, but South Carolina speaks to a new truth thats going to be realized in this upcoming election, and that is the power, influence, and impact of the black vote, specifically black women. And if you cannot turn that corner with the black everybody says, oh, black men support donald trump. Thats because they havent had a conversation with the black female in the household. Its 10 . When you see that, oh, its not 1 , its 9 . Theres one quick wild card, charleston and the suburbs. They may start coming into a democratic primary. We just dont know if they will actually vote in the democratic primary. Its possible. Suburbs are fascinating because suburbs nationally are so different. A lot of times when we talk about suburbs, as if theyre just this homogenous community. Theyre not homogenous, theyre different, its a different makeup depending on the community. Not at all. But people are really interesting in seeing what will happen there. Adrienne, michael, eugene, this has been fun, i appreciate it. Next, we cant do a Campaign Preview show without talking about november. I have the big board, i have kornacki, and another terrifying alternative snore. Scenario. Create your own ultimate feast is back at red lobster. With new creations to choose from; like rich, butterpoached Maine Lobster and crispy crabstuffed shrimp rangoon. How will you pick just 4 of 10 . It wont be easy. Better hurry in. With moderate to Severe Ulcerative Colitis or crohns, your plans can change in minutes. Your head wants to do one thing, but your gut says, not today. If your Current Treatment isnt working, ask your doctor about entyvio. Entyvio acts specifically in the gi tract to prevent an excess of white blood cells from entering and causing damaging inflammation. Entyvio has helped many patients achieve longterm relief and remission. Infusion and serious allergic reactions can happen during or after treatment. 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To show folks, if you did that, if you gave the democrats all three, because remember, the margin was just 75,000 votes across all three, thats all to. You do that, thats it. So there you are. Lets do that for a second here. What would trump do . He couldnt do this. He needs to find what does he need to find . 10 electoral votes. Yeah. Where is he going to find ten . One easy place to find 10. Hes looking in minnesota. But the thing is if the democrats are flipping wisconsin, pennsylvania and michigan, i dont think hes flipping minnesota. But of these big three, theres one were not so confident in for the democrats and one were not so confident in for trump. I think thats fair. I would argue, michigan, wisconsin. Exactly. Lets say the democrats do get michigan, but wisconsin, remember, democrats barely, i mean pabarely won that governor race. There it is. Here we are. Look at that. So trump would get there. Yeah. Thats whats scary for the democrats. Of the three that he swept, if he holds everything, loses michigan and pennsylvania, he gets there. Now, there are other won electoral votes. Lets not forget nebraska. Lets show what would happen if that one Omaha District goes democratic. Clinton only lost this by two points. So the likelihood of this is probably a 5050 coin flip. Now youve got 269269. You think our politics cant handle impeachment and the first four . Throw 269269 at the end of the calendar year. And we go to the house of representatives and its done state by state. California with 50 some members, one vote. North dakota, one vote. Well be waiting for recounts in arizona and North Carolina to see who controls that delegation. Yeah, because its the new congress, the new house that gets elected in 2020 that would vote to break the tie in a president ial election. There are other paths for the democrats. Right. They seem to have more than trump has. Yes. Explain. Part of that is if you look at how trump won, he got all the breaks in 2016. The closest states broke toward him by and large. Thats one of the reasons theres more upside for dems. We talked about the second congressional district. The one after that is arizona. Arizona suburban phoenix, democrats had a big breakthrough there in 2018. The margin here in 2016 was 3. 5 points. Youve seen an evolution in arizona. I think for a while now suburban toward the democrats, certainly away from trump. Arizona 11 electoral votes, that is a prime target. If we go back to the 16 map, how fast can we whip the 16 map here. I want to show people where we are when it comes to where we were. So if you take the 16 map and talk about the importance of arizona. There we go, we got it. Just put arizona in the blue and add pennsylvania, and michigan. Pennsylvania gets to 263. Michigan if youre democrat puts you over the top. And thats the thing here. Democrats believe they can cede wisconsin. You can trade that for that. And they actually net one on that. Look, they like georgia. We know florida is going to be whatever. Georgia if you look at the governors race, that was about a point and a half in 2016. We always overlook North Carolina. Three points. So there is this we look at what trump did. There is a electoral landslide scenario for the democrats if they catch every break, isnt there . You can say point and a half in florida, thats probably the hardest point and a half in politics. Lets say a democrat got 54 nationally. Youre over 300. Thats not even giving them wiscons wisconsin. In a scenario like that, youre probably with wisconsin. Throw in North Carolina, these are big states here. Go georgia. Now youre up to nearly 350. That district in nebraska too. What if we had 1980 in reverse . Here you go. What happens in that one . If the democrats ever flipped texas in 2020, i mean now youre at a level of thats probably thats higher than obama 2008. The best Case Scenario with President Trump probably having huge problems and a democratic nominee being well liked. Thats the bottom falls out plus adds in the Second District of nebraska and thats probably the max out point right there. There it is. Absolute max out point. And we did a trump max out point. Yeah. We got him up to 330 without winning the popular vote. Thats right. Because again, point and a half in minnesota, less than a point in New Hampshire, a couple points up in maine and couple points in nevada. Youre up to 330. If he can grab 20 plus electoral votes and still lose by 3 million votes. All right, that was fun. Always fun to break it down with you. I look forward to all next year doing this. Well be right back with more meet the press daily. Daily. How about that, a focus not so much on impeachment but on the campaign. We will of course we closely following this february fight for the first four throughout all of january and february. If you live in iowa or New Hampshire, look out for us, well be visiting soon. Thats it for this special edition of meet the press daily. I want to thank you all for watching today and every day. Wish all of you a very happy holiday season. Before we go, we want to share with you all the people who make meet the press daily happen and make me look not so dumb. Good evening and welcome to a Holiday Edition of the beat. We have some very special things planned for you tonight. Americans have been leaning into the holiday, stepping back from a year where Donald Trumps actions certainly caught up with him, facing a december impeachment and existential crisis for the Trump Presidency after a news year consumed by his mistakes and scandals. Im announcing the house of representatives moving forward with an official impeachment inquiry. They are under fire from all sides for this whistleblower complaint. What