But i think there that was clearly the question that was asked and when they came back after the break he went in a completely different direction. I surmised thats what happened in the moment. Thats why you need pros in the courtroom watching these things for us to explain it to dopes like me. Barbara mcquade, former u. S. Attorney in meche mitch. Thank you so much, barb. I really appreciate it. Thanks for having me. I even got to ride in an elevator with brandon van grek. Did you really in the Counterespionage Prosecutor guy . I did. Did you say hi to him . I did. Its been great fun. I love your life. Thanks, barb. That does it for us tonight. We will see you again tomorrow. May we all someday have the opportunity to ride in an elevator with a veteran Counterespionage Prosecutor when were in a position to know who that is. Imagine the thrill. Now its time for The Last Word with lawrence odonnell. Good evening, lawrence. Good evening, rachel. And imagine the thrill for Rachel Maddow viewers who finally have you back. I have a message from your fans, rachel, from coast to coast, from massachusetts to california. Please dont ever take a
Analysis and discussion of the days top stories and compelling issues from Lawrence ODonnell. Evolve as we push through this part of the testimony for sure. And theres going to be a lot more. And we have to get straight from you to Steve Kornacki with about one second in between because its too close to call, as you know. Right on. Thanks, man. Thanks, rachel. It is too close to call in ohios 12th Congressional District. And that means joining us now with the latest on the Ohio 12th Congressional Race is Steve Kornacki. Steve, where are we . Almost everything is in, lawrence. Right now we are almost entirely down to one county, basically its this. Danny oconnor, the democrat, just in the last two minutes before i came on here, he took the lead in the overall count. You can do the math there at home. 201 votes is the lead for Danny Oconnor. Now, thats the good news for democrats. The bad news for democrats is he did it by basically exhausting what was left in Franklin County. Franklin county, it looks tiny on your screen but its a third, at least a third of the vote thats going to be cast tonight in this district. This is densely populated columbus. Very near columbus suburbs right here. And Danny Oconnors been
were worse. There were certainly some that were worse. I think balderson oh, wlaushs, let me just do the math right here. We just got a burst. We went from 66 to 82. About half the outstanding vote came in as i was talking. It took it to about 3,900 votes districtwide. Countywide. And that does put balderson back in the league by. 4 of a Percentage Point. That is a margin, 677 741. 741 votes is the margin right now. 741 votes is baldersons lead. 17 of the vote still to be counted in Delaware County. And just making sure we didnt get any updates here. Still a sliver here in Franklin County. Im curious to see what they are. And then look. Theres two things to keep in mind here. And i want to just get the countywide up here. Number one, state law in ohio, if you are within. 5 of a point
thats a recount. Its. 4 right now. Thats one thing to keep in mind. The other is we say this when theyre this close at the end of the night. Provisional ballots. Were trying to dig up some statistics here. We do think that democrats are likely to do better than the republicans in the provisional ballots. About 2 . If you looked in 2016, about 2 of the countys totals here ended up being provisional ballot. So there is probably a couple thousand that might be floating around there. We would expect the democrats to do a little better. That could be a source there for oconnor. Its really got to be in the hundreds of votes for that to kick in. It might be, though. Weve got to see what comes in here in Delaware County and whats remaining if they happen to be good precincts for oconnor, he can keep that margin where it is right now, squeeze a little bit more out of here. Hed be within that. 5 and wed be talking provisionals. Obviously, if youre a republican youre feeling better now than if youre a democrat about where this is going to land. But this is still this is still a little suspense here, lawrence. Steve, what is that name at the bottom of the ballot thats pulling 1 of that vote, and who does that affect . Thats manchik. Thats the Green Party Candidate. You can theorize all you want. You would certainly say the Green Party Candidate on the left, the sort of obvious thing youd say is the Green Party Candidate more likely to draw votes from a democrat than a republican. You could also make the case, know, that hey, are there republicans out there, they dont like donald trump, they dont like the Republican Party of donald trump and they dont want to vote democratic, do they just use the other name thats on the ballot. But obviously when you get this close that becomes the question. 1,102 votes. It is less than 1,102 votes that are separating Danny Oconnor and Troy Balderson. Zplt green party once again possibly making a difference in the outcome of democrat versus republican. Its starting to look that way. Steve, thank you very much. Were going to come back to you as this develops. Were joined by amanda wurtz. Democratic strategist and Vice President of the Remington Road Group and a Political Consulting group based in ohio. David jolly, a former republican congressman from florida. November. And democrats have a lot of reason to be optimistic. Cornell belcher, what are you seeing in the Ohio 12th Tonight and what do you think it means to democrats if the Green Party Candidate in effect snatches away a victory tonight for democrats . I want to underline whats just been said here. Look, there are 60plus seats that are more competitive than this one. And if im sitting at the Republican Congressional Campaign committee, ive got to hit the panic button. Right . This is not a seat that should in fact be close at all. This is not a seat that has even been competitive. But i think youre seeing the pattern that were seeing in other places. And i think governor kasich, republican governor kasich, hit on this. Donald trump can fire up the base of the Republican Party. But you need moderate republicans, especially in those suburban, sort of upscale suburban seats. You have a lot of moderate women, collegeeducated women. And you see the pattern of this, sort of these especially women, especially collegeeducated women breaking hard away from the Republican Party. Even hard grert Republican Party this year than we saw in 2006 which puts a lot of districts like this, makes a lot of districts like this competitive. And if you carry that trend over where you see these upwardly mobile suburban districts breaking away from republicans at this clip its kind of time to hit the panic button and as a republican you have to choose, do i want to save the Republican Party or do i want to stick closely with donald trump, right . Youre going to have to choose between the two because this is a Panic Button Sort of moment. Lets go back to the numbers. Were going to go back to the numbers with Steve Kornacki. Its changing by the minute. Steve, what do we have now . Yeah. So i can tell you what the situation is. First of all, just again, the margin were looking at is 743 votes right now for balderson. Youll note it still says too close to call. Why does it say too close to call . Look, you get into these situations when theyre this close and, you know, nine times out of ten the party that ends up losing starts saying
provisional ballots, provisional ballots, provisional ballots. But this is so close right now and what we know about provisional ballots and were still learning a little about it suggests we need to understand how many provisional ballots there are in this district because we expect them to break more for the democrat than for the republican. Its 743. There are still some precincts, not many at all, but there are still some precincts in Franklin County where oconnors been rung up the score. So with whatever is left there you would expect him to make a small but eat into that 743. What else is left . Only one thing in tonights vote. 18 of the vote still to come in delaware. The way things are going that would be padded a little bit for balderson. You would expect that. You would expect that. And then the question then is provisional ballots. What we have is the counties are starting to tell us. Thats why our Decision Desk is not changing this from too close to call because we are finding out what is out there and we know whats happened in the past. We have a sense of it. The counties are telling us one by one how many provisional
ballots they have. Weve only got two. Its not very useful right now because theyre very small numbers. These are very small places. Morrow is there are 68 provisional ballots here. But morrow is rural. The entire population of this county, population is 34,000. But there are 68 provisional ballots there. Muskingham you can come close to doubling it again. Small but this is baldersons neck of the woods. 117. But what we want to know really this is the heart of the district pb these three counties account for 80plus percent of the population. In Franklin County, in Delaware County, in loink county, how many were there. If you look at the math for these things in the past they break in the congressional race heres what i mean. The last time you had a congressional race where we could track these things a little bit the republican candidate did 17 points worse on the provisional ballots than he did in the overall vote. So there was a pretty big dropoff there. Thats why were looking at it this way. The other thing i said is again,
if youre within half a point, 0. 5 , there is a state law on the books that says thats, it youre going to a recount, were not calling a winner, we cant call a winner. Theyre within that right now. Theyre signature at 0. 4. Thanks, steve. Well come back to you as you have more developments there. Amanda wurst, you were about to Say Something as we went to steve. Go ahead. In terms of republicans hitting the payne button, these two have to match each other again in november. And we have all five statewide Executive Offices on the ballot as well as a u. S. Senate race. And each one of those candidates going to have to look at this race and say how do i thread that very delicate needle, by embracing president trump, thats critical to securing my base, and incorporating grofsh john kasich, whos growing to help me with moderates and swing voters. Troy balderson has frankly faltered every time trying to thread that needle. Amanda, just to go back to
whats going to happen in ohio, this is a Special Election. Special elections for congressional seats dont carry you any further than the end of that particular congress. So this seat is going to be up again in november. Do you expect the same two candidates to run . Do you expert loser tonight to run for this seat in november . So we had a very unique process in that the primary for both the special and the general took place in may. These two absolutely will have a rematch in november. And Troy Balderson has been greatly supported by the republican establishment apparatus. Millions of dollars have been spent to support his candidacy. Thats frankly just not going to be an option as the map expands and theres more fires to put out for National Republicans. David, thats a very important point that amanda makes, is that the thing about safe seats is you that dont have to spend money on them and the party counts on not spending money on safe seats so that they can spend their money on the
contested seats on the difficult pickups. If they have to spend money, as they did in this campaign, the Special Election, if they spend this kind of money again, around ohio 12th in november. To amandas point, theres not going to be the resources for it. I was the productive a Special Election, and god bless these two candidates but particularly their supporters who are probably arriving at the finish line exhausted and put their Heart And Soul into it. Novembers going to be very different. Its not going to have the national focus. Nor is it going to have the resources. Whats going on at the National RepublicanCongressional Committee in real time right now is they are looking at their current incumbents and already having conversations about which ones theyre going to write off, which ones they know are going to lose in november and then they shift resources away from those resources to the races they have to save. Were in an environment going into november where youre wondering where the cut line is. Is it incumbent republicans favored by three or four or five . How high does the water in the
blue wave actually reach . Thats what theyre trying to assess right now. And at some point very soon three months out now the National Republicans are going to begin to cut their losses, Move Resources away from certain races. This may simply be one of them that they cant continue to spend on a race that should not be competitive. Joining our analysis now is Democratic NationalCommittee Chairman tom perez. Chairman perez, what are you seeing in Ohio 12th Tonight . Its amazing, lawrence, that were having this conversation. As youve pointed out, 35 years or so since a democrat has won this seat. Its gerrymandered beyond all get out by john boehner on behalf of one of his friends in congress. And here we are in a dead heat. And whoever wins theres going to be a rematch in 91 days. And what excited me, and i was out in ohio last week, what excited me was the unity of purpose on the democratic side. Danny oconnor had six opponents in the primaryll. And after that primary everybody
came together. Everybody was united. The local indivisible chapter supported one of his opponents and they were all in. The swing left. The labor movement. The d triple c. The dnc. The Ohio Democratic party. Everybody together. And that is why we got so close. And well see what happens here. If ever we need yet another reminder of the importance of getting out there and voting, here we are in another nailbiter. Thats why its so important for people to exercise their right to vote. And frankly, thats why republicans like the republican Secretary Of State in ohio engage in such constant shenanigans to make it harder for people to vote. Were going to have to go right back to Steve Kornacki with the latest numbers. Yeah, lawrence, we just got a bunch of them. Im processing it with you. Baldersons lead has expanded in basically all get this. This is Delaware County. So basically awful Delaware County there is still some left but almost all of its in. Balderson you can see hes expanded his lead. This has been trump got 55. Hes sitting at 54. 96 of the vote is in in Delaware County. What thats done districtwide is its put him up by 1,680 votes. The lead for oconnor is 1,685. That is 0. 8 . What is sorry, i just spilled some water. What is left here is a very tiny sliver of flaink, a scattering small scattering of precincts in delaware, but also this. Im not kiding when i say absentees and provisionals. Were tracking these. What we have right now that we know of, and we know of the counts for everything outside of the two major the two biggest counties here. Delaware and franklin account for 60 of the population. We dont have any counts on whats still to be counted there in terms of absentee and provisional. Outside of that, though, we are sitting at 3,730. This is in 40 of the district populationwise. 3,730. What are they . About 1,000 of them are provisional ballots. And we do expect on the whole districtwide those to break democratic. The other 2,730 are absentee. A very, very, very small portion of that we expect to be military ballots. Those we assume would break republican. This is the question. Those other Absentee Ballots, are they early votes, are they votes a huge church, of votes in this district were cast early and oconnor won the early vote by a very large margin. Folks who were watching earlier saw this as it played out. He won the early vote very big. 3,730 in the rural part of the district. When you add whatever we get out of franklin and delaware you can expect that number to more than double. Youd be talking Ballpark Figure 8,000 total, 8,500, Something Like that. And again, at that current split that would be what, about 6,000 absentee slash military plus about 2,500 provisional. With the provisional expected to break democratic. And the question then that looms is if the bulk of those absentee we have to understand exactly what they
mean by absentee. Were trying to find out right now. But if the bulk of the absentee are from that category of early vote that we saw earlier, that would be the thats an if. Were trying to find out right now. But thats why again with numbers like this where you still see too close to call on your screen. Steve, were going to be back to you, steve, whenever you have more to report to us on those numbers. And tom perez, i want to go back to you on what this means for other Democratic Campaigns, what youre looking at tonight, what it means strategically. What did you see in Danny Oconnors campaign that you think you want to see duplicated in other campaigns around the country . Well, listen, Danny Oconnor was fighting for the issues that mattered most not only in his district but frankly across america. Fighting for access to health care. He wants to make sure that if you have a preexisting condition you can still keep your health care coverage. His opponent wants to dot opposite. Fighting to bring down Prescription Drug costs. Fighting to Preserve Medicare and social skourt. And his opponent wanted to raise
the eligibility age for those things. These are nuts and bolts fdr democratic issues that we have been fighting for and thats how weve been winning. In response to your question, again, there were Something Like 60 congressional seats that were tighter than this district, and you see were in a jump ball here. If theres one thing weve learned over the last 18 months on this job, lawrence, its that we can win everywhere in this country. We have been winning everywhere. We flipped 43 seats in state races, federal races from red to blue in places like oklahoma and elsewhere, where donald trump won by quite a bit. And were doing it by fielding great candidates, by organizing everywhere, by Organizing Early, by leading with our values. Were fighting for an economy that works for everyone. Were fighting for health care. Were fighting for our democracy. Thats why we are winning. This gives me great confidence not only In The House Races but weve got opportunities to take over governorships. And this is a 12year cycle. We have an opportunity, and weve been Organizing Early in wisconsin, in michigan, in ohio. All of these places. Great opportunities for democratic pickups. South dakota, polled the other day. Guy named billy sutton, best candidate theyve had there since the mid 70s, down by four points and surging. Were organizing across this country and were talking about those values that are quintessentially american values. The values of opportunity. The values that say were all in this together. Were not going to play this zero sum politics of i succeed only if you fail. People want their leaders to fight for everyone. And thats exactly what were doing as democrats. David jolly mentioned earlier that the republican candidate, no matter how this comes out tonight, will be the republican candidate in november and will have much more difficulty getting financial help from the national Republican Party when you get into november because of
the various demands and extended demands we have around the country. What are you going to do from the democratic candidate in this district when its harder for to you concentrate on an individual district like this . Thats why these coordinated campaigns are so important. And thats why what i said a few minutes is go is so critically important bep dont know whats going to happen in this race. Its a jump ball. But heres what we do know. Democrats were united in their purpose. They were united coming together. It was the indivisible chapter, swing left, the d triple c, the dnc, the Ohio Democratic party, the labor movement. Everybody was coming together. And we see that in ohio with rich cordray running for governor. Great candidates for attorney general, Secretary Of State, treasurer. And sherrod brown, who is a brand in himself, such a leader, such a titan. So when we invest in coordinated campaigns, and thats the essence of the dnc. Our investments in infrastructure are designed to
everybody up and down the ticket. Weve already invested in wisconsin in a coordinated campaign. We dont know who the governor nominee is going to be on the democratic side. We will know in about a week. But we didnt wait for that. We invested early, we invested prior to the state Supreme Court race that was held earlier this year where Rebecca Daallet won by 11 points. I think we can beat scott walker. I think we can elect a democrat in michigan. I think we can win ohio and were going to compete everywhere. And those coordinated campaigns where were all in this together, thats how we win. Democratic Party Chairman tom perez. Thank you very much for joining us tonight. Really appreciate it. Always a pleasure, lawrence. When we come back, well have more with our panel on this Election Night and Steve Kornacki will be the first thing we see when we come back with the latest numbers. A hotel can make or break a trip. And at expedia, we dont think you should be rushed into booking one. Thats why we created expedias addon advantage. Now after booking your flight, you unlock discounts on select hotels right until the day you leave. Addon advantage. Discounted hotel rates when you add on to your trip. Only when you book with expedia. They wont hike your ratest foover one mistake. See, Liberty Mutual doesnt hold grudges. For drivers with Accident ForgivenessLiberty Mutual wont raise their rates because of their first accident. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty. Liberty now im gonna tell my momma that im a traveller im Gonna Follow The Sun now im gonna tell my momma that im a traveller transitions™ light under control™ essential for the cactus, but maybe not for people with rheumatoid arthritis. Because there are options. Like an unjection™. Xeljanz xr. A oncedaily pill for adults with moderate to severe ra for whom methotrexate did not work well enough. Xeljanz xr can reduce pain, swelling and further joint damage, even without methotrexate. Xeljanz xr can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. Serious, sometimes fatal infections, lymphoma and other cancers have happened. Dont start xeljanz xr if you have an infection. Tears in the stomach or intestines, low Blood Cell Counts and higher liver tests and cholesterol levels have happened. Your doctor should perform blood tests before you start and while taking xeljanz xr, and monitor certain liver tests. Tell you doctor if you were in a region where fungal infections are common and if you have had tb, hepatitis b or c, or are prone to infections. Needles. Fine for some things. But for you, one pill a day may provide symptom relief. Ask your doctor about xeljanz xr. An unjection™. It is another dramatic Election Night in america. This time in the 12th Congressional District in ohio. Which has been in republican hands for over 35 years. Tonight the democrat is within one Percentage Point of the republican as the returns stand tonight, Steve Kornacki is back with us now to give us the latest on those numbers. Lawrence, let me just take you through the numbers. The margin, what happened is the final few precincts in Franklin County, the democratic stronghold, came in. Thats all in. The margin right now sits at 1,688 for balderson. You can say everythings counted except theres just a few precincts, 96 in delaware. Where are those precincts in they look like theyre in areas that are pretty good for oconnor relative to the rest of the county. Were not talking places where hes going to be getting 60 , 65 , 70 of the vote. I think were talking places where he may not lose thatch more ground, may make slight gains, eat into that 1,688. That leaves you with two questions right now. Number one, its the provisional ballots. We certainly expect these to break for democrats. We certainly expect them to break for democrats by a pretty solid margin. We think we dont have numbers from every county. We think theyre going to be in the neighborhood of 2,500 provisional ballots here. If you gave a realistic guess, if you said democrats, you know, got 60 of the provisional ballots here, maybe a little on the low end, they got 60 , they would net from that 500 votes. There would be a 500 Vote Plurality. If they could get 2 3 of those youd be getting close to 850. Maybe they get a 900 vote trying to eat into that figure. As you can see, that would start to get them there. That would take a big chunk. Wouldnt quite get them there. Then that leaves the other issue here. This is a bit of mystery. And our folks at the Decision Desk, im waiting on word on this. The state of ohio through the
Secretary Of States website and the board of elections theyre saying they have uncounted Absentee Ballots that currently number 2,750. And thats not even counting delaware and franklin. So from the rest of the district were being told individual in these counties theres nearly 3,000 votes there. What are those votes . Are those early votes that just havent been counted yet . We think some of them, a small number, not nearly 2,700 are Military Votes. So what are they . Are they actual votes that were counted . Are they early votes . The early vote went democratic. Were trying to find out. I will pass word as soon as i know it because that becomes the key question. If the provisionals break democratic solidly, if oconnor kind of treads water in whats left in delaware youre looking at a gap then of potentially under 1,000 votes. It does raise the question of would you be within 0. 5 and have that automatic recount and it raises the question of are there other votes out there that are falling into this category of uncounted absentee that the
Secretary Of State of ohio is telling us are there. Steve, were going to let you go back to studying the numbers and find out more about those Absentee Ballots. Were going to go to the panel. Well come back to you, steve, whenever we have new numbers there. Were joined by amanda wurst, democratic strategist in ohio. David jolly, former republican congressman. Cornell belcher, democratic strategist. And amanda, you know this district better than any of us do. Im just reading this tweet from frank luntz, republican pollster, whos pointing out that the Ohio 12th District has only once, only once since 1938 has it gone to a democrat. That was once in 1980 when it went to a democrat. So the hold, the republican hold on the ohio 12th goes all the way back to 1938. And in the most recent redistricting, as raich maldow was pointing out in the last hour, it was wildly
gerrymandered to make it more solidly republican. This is probably one of the most of the reddest districts in the count in the state. Particularly when you look that it does have part of Franklin County, which is trending more and more progressive. Columbus in particular has Ohio State University and a number of other economic drivers that are bringing Younger Voters to stay in the city. I think also what you see in this district and in this race in particular is you have really seen i know weve talked a lot about the coordinated campaign, but also you are taking a look at a lot of Progressive Organizations, independent Progressive Organizations that have been on the ground since 2016. And because theyve been building this progressive infrastructure in central ohio and throughout the state, one example is for our future ohio that has been canvassing in this district, was able to flip a switch. So not only were they able to
engage in this race and add capacity where there hasnt been in previous elections, but also this was a Great Trial Run For November and a great opportunity to see what the progressive infrastructure can do when it flexes its muscle. Yeah. David jolly, this is unlike other Congressional Elections where when these two candidates, the winner and the loser if we have one tonight, wakes up tomorrow, they are both running fullscale congressional campaigns just as hard as they were running yesterday. They will be running tomorrow for the november version of this election. Thats it. I woke up the day after my Special Election and had five or six months until i faced reelection in an equally competitive district as the special. Thats when Party Leaders told me your first job is to go raise money. And not to legislate, not to do anything you that expect to do as a member of congress but go raise money for november. Lawrence, i think one of the interesting things we may be talking about tomorrow david, lets just pause on that. Youre talking about you win a
Special Election as a republican in florida, you go to washington, you get sworn in, and they say to you forget about showing up for committee hearings, forget about your duties that you just took an oath to here in this building, your job is to raise money for yourself because you are much more on your own now when it comes to the november election. Thats it, lawrence. You can imagine when i first said that publicly. It was actually on 60 minutes. Party leaders kind of put me in a corner. Yeah, look, i had a meeting with a member of Party Leadership and my deputy Chief Of Staff over at the nrcc where i was told your first job every day when you wake up is to raise money. And i believe they set the target at about 18,000 a day. They wanted me to raise 2 million in about six months. And understand i couldnt rely on Party Resources or outside money because everybody had just given everything they had. I got called to the carpet by the nrcc. They said that never happened. So i provided the outlook calendar, the date, the time and the room. And ever since then theyve shut up about it. But that is whoever wins this
race tonight is going to be looking at a serious fundraising hole. Lawrence, one thing to watch in the morning is this. What does the donald trump wing of the party actually it is the party, the 90 that is donald trump republicans. What do they say about this . Because the republican candidate in ohio, though he has notionally embraced donald trump, he has not gone full make America Great again. I actually think youre going to see the president and his minions say the reason this was so close is because our candidate in ohio was not donald trump enough. And theyre going to lay the blame on the candidate in ohio for underperforming. Theyre going to say if he was closer to donald trump he would have done better tonight. And cornell belcher, we have a report from governor kasich, republican governor of ohio, who said that the republican candidate Troy Balderson did not invite donald trump to come to that district to campaign for him but donald trump came anyway. Well, the problem is and you were saying its all across the country. Is donald trump does in fact turn off moderate voters, right . And you have a whole swath of those particularly moderate women whove been leaning republican right now who clutch their pearls every time donald trump speaks. And governor kasich is right. In these swing moderate districts where you do need to win, you know, College Educated women, donald trump is a problem. But i also want to go back to something you said you that pointed to earlier, lawrence. Were looking at an election here thats probably after the provisionals is probably going to be less than a point. Right . So i have to say to my fellows who are voting the green party, look, we are facing an existential threat to our climate and to our democracy. Right . And i know the Democratic Party isnt perfect. But these elections are too close for you to not make a choice between the lesser of two evils. And in the end you know very well theres a party that doesnt even believe in Climate Change and one party that
embraces science. We cannot allow the party that does not believe in Climate Change to continue to win by these narrow margins. Right . People voting third party. And we saw the protest vote in 2000 in the last president ial election, 2016, which i think sort of swung the election away from hillary. I hear you green party. I hear youre not happy with the democrats. But at this point you have to make a choice between the lesser of two evils. Were going to squeeze in a break here. When we come back, well have Steve Kornacki and the latest numbers. vo why do subaru forester
we are back with our breaking News Coverage tonight, of tonights big Special Election in ohios 12th Congressional District. Steve kornacki is back with us and he has the latest numbers. Steve, what do you have . They are all the same all the votes that were cast today, they are now all counted. So youve got 100 reporting from all of these counties and you can see the margin there, the margin is 1,766 votes for balderson. So the question is right now you can see that 0. 9 points. That would be north of that 0. 5 that triggers a recount. The question now just becomes can that survive the provisional ballots, the Absentee Ballots, the Military Votes that are out there . We think theres going to be probably a little bit north of 2,500, maybe, say, around 2,700 provisional ballots that are cast in this district. If they break democratic, you could do the math reasonably speaking if the democrats netted
700, 800 Vote Plurality out of the provisionals. That would take a big bite out of that. It would raise the question are they going to get within 0. 5. It would not overtake balderson. We also had the question of Absentee Ballots, did they exist. What is the Secretary Of State telling us . We think now theres a small number of Military Votes. We expect they would break republican. A very small number. And the thinking now is those Absentee Ballots theyre probably ballots that were mailed out and not returned and then listed as encounted absentee. It looks like provisional military basically whats left. Balderson ahead. It looks like the democrats if you told them at the start of the night they were going to get turnout and support they got at franklin theyd say they won. The republicans getting bailed out by the rural areas where trump surged in 2016. Steve, so are we going to have more votes counted tonight . The procedure and the rule in ohio is that no provisional ballot is counted for at least ten days after the election. Okay. So youve created a bit of suspense there. Were going to come back to you, steve, in a minute. Msnbc Correspondent Garrett Haik joins us from the oconnor headquarters in westerville, ohio. Garrett haik, a group of democrats there waiting for their first victory in over 35 years in this district. Whats the latest from there . Well, lawrence, it sounds like theyre going to have to wait a little bit longer. Theyre trying to keep enthusiasm up here, but as steve pointed out the numbers are just really, really tough to make up for this Democratic Campaign here of Danny Oconnor, who by a lost accounts really ran pretty much errorfree baseball. Essentially the last couple of days of this campaign. But really ran into a wall with the math. I can tell you by being on the ground here the last few days the enthusiasm for this candidacy and for the idea of taking back the house is absolutely real here. And its something thats going to buoy democrats across the country, that they outperformed
here, regardless of the final result. But that said, moral victories do not a majority make. And republicans i think will look at this and say their theory of the case, of bringing in president trump, juicing turnout in rural parts of the district, and then holding on tight might have been enough to get them through here. Can they replicate that in other parts of the state . I think theyre less excited to test that theory than democrats are to test the theory of taking good candidates and running against this president in a lot of suburban districts that look a lot like this around the country. The one thing we know were going to hear in both candidates speeches tonight, garretts that theyre going to ask their supporters to get out there first thing tomorrow and keep this Campaign Going because theyre both going to be running for this seat in november. Garrett haake at democratic headquarters in the 12th Congressional District. Thanks for joining us. We are now joined by republican strategist mike murphy. Mike, joining us by phone, really appreciate you getting in here. You have run president ial campaigns that needed to win ohio. Youve campaigned hard in ohio. You know the 12th Congressional District. What are you seeing in that district tonight . Well, its an interesting one because nothing beats winning. So congratulations to balderson, who i think is going to take it. But this is a very close race deep in the republican end zone. There are more than probably 45 republican incumbents who have worse districts than this generic generically. So its a win for the republicans but its a chilling one because were not supposed to be having to spend millions of dollars to defend a district like this. I think both parties can find something to brag about. The republicans held this seat. That counts for a lot. But this thing shows there are bad headwinds for the gop, mostly driven by the president. You can see it, we need a little more time to look at the precinct by precinct numbers. Clearly the rural affection for the president is still there. The base republican affection is still there. But the suburban affection is eroding and giving the democrats a real opportunity, and the more democratic areas are really worked up and i think were going to see when we really analyze this some turnout there, which is another sign that these fall elections are going to be super competitive in a lot of places they normally arent. Mike, we always try to interpret special Election Results for what they mean for the next Congressional Election, but we rarely get special Election Results this close on the calendar, 90 days away from the november election. Is there something more important in tonights message than we would have gotten if this was six months ago . Well, i think this is the pennsylvania 18 trend. This time it went our way. But these are, if you look at the bigger picture, almost margin of error elections, both in the republican backfield. So there is a blue wave. Its up against . Fairly safe republican seats to get beyond the 24. But theres no doubt the majority is very much in play. And i talked to a bunch of republicans in swing districts, and theyre nervous as hell. There will be fighting because this is also a wakeup call for the gop. Both sides have something here. Mike murphy, thanks for joining us tonight. Really appreciate it. Were going to have more on this special Congressional Election in ohios 12th district straight after this break. Steve kornacki will be back with us. Wait at the counter. And choose any car in the aisle. And i dont wait when i return, thanks to drop go. At national, i can lose the wait. And keep it off. Looking good, patrick. I know. vo go national. Go like a pro. Crisp leaves of lettuce. Freshly made dressing. Clean food that looks this good. Delivered to your desk. 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And were back with our special coverage of tonights special Congressional Election in the ohio 12th congressional
district. Steve kornacki is back with us with the latest numbers. And what youre reporting, steve, on when were going to find out about the rest of these ballots. Yeah. Okay, boy. Certainly balderson is feeling good now, leading this thing by 1,266. We have a number of provisional ballots for the county. 3,435 is the number districtwide of provisional ballots. One, thats basically double the level of baldersons lead in this thing. We expect provisions to break democratic. Would that be enough to break the 1,276 . It doesnt seem likely. Will it be enough to trigger a recount . That certainly looms as a possibility. 3,435 is what were looking at
for the provisionals. The Secretary Of States website says the provisional ballots are not to be counted for ten days following the election. Were making sure thats not a typo. Were checking the books on that. Joining our discussion now is Brian Williams who will be seamlessly taking over this coverage at 11 00 p. M. And brian, were going to ask the Secretary Of State, would they please consider counting those ballots during your hour instead of waiting those ten days. First of all, i was going to ask you, what about tonight is seamless . Why start now . And secondly, oh, it looks like we oh, we have Danny SullivanDanny Oconnor, sorry, speaking at his election headquarters. Lets listen. Of our country. I am so grateful. I am so grateful for all of your support. You believed in us. In a race that the pundits said we had no chance even being in. You proved them wrong. They gerrymandered, they gerrymandered and carved up a district to favor the establishment. But you know what . They never saw you coming. And ill tell you what. And i want to Say Something. I want to thank the people behind me, my family, my parents, my sister, my uncle buzz, and the love of my life, my fiance spencer. We just good engaged a couple of months ago, nothing else going on, right . Ill tell you what, this campaign, it is truly something special. We have gone to every corner of this district, because we know if you want to represent the seven counties of this district in congress, you need to fight for Delaware County. You need to fight for lincoln
county, merion county, richland county, Franklin County. Thats what were going to do when we go to washington. As i went across this district, i heard over and over that the people of central ohio are sick and tired of the same Old Washington politics. Folks want new leadership. A new generation of voices that arent concerned with Party Politics but with whats best for mansfield and Delaware And Columbus and newark and everywhere in between. And as we see division and discord tearing apart our country, we must remember that each and every one of us are gods children and that all of us need to be treated with dignity and respect. And i think we can use a lot more of that spirit in washington these days. We have to work. We have to work to find common ground. We have to not only listen to
but respect one another. And thats why ill work with anyone that wants to deliver solutions for central ohio, because too often folks retreat to their partisan corners and arent focused on getting things done for Working Families right here in our community. In our fight, weve rejected, weve rejected corporate pac money, because big money, we know that big money from big corporations is just one part of the problem with our election. This is a grassroots campaign. Powered by small donations. Powered by people who just want to have a chance at winning the future for their community. We had seniors on fixed incomes writing us 10 and 20 checks. We had young people saddled with College Debt Chipping in because they wanted to be able to afford
health care some day. There was a woman who had severe arthritis who could only write two post cards a day but every day she wrote those post cards. She kept fighting. She kept fighting because she and all of us are fighting for our country. Were fighting for a better america. We went door to door. We went house to house. We made our case for change. Were going to make that case tomorrow. Were not stopping now. Tomorrow we rest and then we keep fighting through to november. Lets go out there. Lets get it done. Lets change this country. Thank you all. Brian williams, the one predictable line in both of these candidates speeches tonight was were going to be out there tomorrow, fighting. They are now, no matter who is the ultimate winner of this thing, running for that november election about 90 days away from now. Lawrence, it seems like youve worked in politics
before, because even though its an august night, that was a November Pivot if ive ever heard one. And youre right, the incumbent member of congress will get a stapler and a desk and a chair on capitol hill but they wont feel like moving in because nothing will feel permanent, because well be back covering this race at some point. As you know, as youve been saying, Special Elections are special animals. Because the politics industry has diminishing terms for every different demographic. Youre dealing with low information voters, as they are affectionately called, because theres no incumbent to market. There is no incumbent to run on. Youre telling life stories in real time. So that is part of the interesting story weve seen play out here tonight. And brian, we just saw this 31yearold candidate making his first big Election Night speech. And he obviously is going to be running pretty hard against the 56yearold Troy Balderson in these next 90 days. We may not have a winner. Given that the results of this election cant be certified until at least these provisional ballots are counted, and so were not going to have a seated member of congress for possibly a couple of weeks. Yeah, tonight you had me at good evening. Ive been sitting in my office watching lawrence odonnell, and i still felt the need to be honest to our customers. We love having folks as we bridge the hour into late night, this is going to go well beyond late night. We are very likely not going to have a result tonight. When we wake up tomorrow, to your point, if the Recount Triggers are in fact triggered, well be at this a long time. Brian, i have some scripts about the manafort trial that you can use. Ill have them sent over, that we could not get into this coverage tonight. Steve kornacki, i want to get a last word from you about what remains to be done in ohio when it comes to counting votes and certifying an election. 1,700 votes is the margin for
balderson. 3,400 is the number of provisionals. It may take them ten days to get those counted. If they break democratic in bringing numbers which you kind of expect, that could drop the margin lower enough that its within 0. 5 . Then theres the mandatory statewide recount. Listening to oconnor there, that wasnt a concession speech, that wasnt a victory speech. One way or another, hes moving on to november. For the next couple of weeks, potentially, possibly, the fate of this Special Election still remains officially unresolved. I want to thank all of our guests who joined us in this live coverage tonight. Amanda wurst, Brian Williams, thank you for coming in here to create what were going to do our best to be a seamless transition into the live coverage that continues on this Election Night. Thank you so much. As a member of your audience, thanks for a great hour of political coverage