Worst of Both Worlds: Are the Risks of Stagflation Elevated? Part II

We presented a simple framework to characterize stagflation in the first installment of this series. Using that framework, we identified 13 instances of stagflation in the United States since 1950 (Figure 1). Episodes vary in severity, but each posed unique challenges to monetary policymakers. In this second installment, we briefly review historical instances of stagflation and their accompanying monetary policy decisions. The distinctive experiences point to an economy whose structural drivers of growth have shifted over time, which underscores the idea that a policy enacted back in the 1970s may not have the same effect today as it did then.

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