A presidential election will take place in Iran on June 18, and it is rumored that Ali Khamenei prefers one candidate above the others: Chief Justice Ebrahim Raisi. While Raisi has never belonged to the IRGC, his election would nevertheless represent a victory for the hardliners. Despite his lack of religious credentials, Raisi is also considered a serious contender to succeed Khamenei as Supreme Leader.
Iran’s Threat to Iraq Is a Threat to the US
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,061, June 2, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
a
“diverse array of threats” facing the US. Iran is moving toward its goal of full domination of Iraq and the expulsion of the last remaining US forces from that country, a result that would represent a great success for the Islamic Republic.
The annual threat assessment released in April by the US Office of the Director of National Intelligence states that “Iran will remain a regional menace with broader malign influence activities.” The Islamic Republic is expected to continue those malign activities all over the globe, but its focus will likely remain its immediate regional surroundings particularly Iraq. Tehran views Iraq as a key country over which it must establish and maintain complete supremacy.
The Strategic Genius Behind Allowing Qatari Suitcases of Cash into Gaza
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,053, May 27
, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
Qatar and Hamas were duped when, on the fourth day of the Guardian of the Walls offensive, Israel destroyed the Qataris’ billion-dollar investment in the terrorist organization in 40 minutes. The question is, can Israel leverage this success into disarming Hamas? It all depends on the resolve of Israel’s leadership.
Qatar’s head of state and his cronies no doubt felt duped as nearly a billion dollars of investment in Hamas went up in smoke or, more precisely, caved in and was pulverized into dust.
Iran’s newly appointed Deputy Commander-in- Chief of the Quds Force, Muhammad Reza Fallahzadeh, is not only an experienced military man but also a politician with diplomatic experience. He is a vital asset for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which wants to see its own man elected president in the June elections.
Russia Pressures Ukraine, to Little Avail
BESA Center Perspectives Paper No. 2,029, May 20, 2021
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:
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undermin
a
stronger economy.
Ukraine is once again a focus of Russia’s foreign policy. Many theories have been put forward to explain Moscow’s massive concentration of military forces along the Ukraine border: it is preparing for invasion, it is testing the Biden administration, and so on.
It is unclear why Russia should have mounted a major offensive at this particular moment. Moscow has been consistently strategic in its thinking about military actions since 2008. It has always pursued a concrete military objective: prevention of NATO expansion to Georgia (2008) and protection of its military bases in Crimea (2014) and in Syria (2015).