Page 491 - 08 News Today

Which, however you believe it, the papers influence the electorate or not, it reflects what all of us know. we all know people who were for the republicans in 08 and who have not shifted. we know almost none who have shifted, but we know a lot of people who were for obama in 08 who have shifted and thats going to determine the election, how many of them are there? if there are three out of 53, romney wins. >> megyn: charles, thank you. >> bret: a live look now at president obama speaking in cinc...

8-point swing. they have a 7-point margin different from the gallup polls. thats why its distorted. megyn: larry sabato and charlie cook come out and say we see a slight advantage obama. they are not going to call it obama locked up but they dont sight like you do. >> they are not willing to make the jump of saying that obama will not get the same turnout of blacks, latinos and young people that he got in 2008. and they are assuming he will get a turnout at the 08 levels or approximate the 08 le...

Effectively. i think its within six hours he had the ad out. what, why should you vote? obama says for revenge, i say for love of country. and that is the perfect contract of large, contrast of large versus small and i think it was a mistake obama will regret. >> bret: i think, charles, both campaigns tout newspaper endorsements all across the country and both campaigns have a long list. but the romney campaign has some interesting recent endorsements, especially in the state of ohio and the sta...

Little over 1,000 above what the margin of obama victory was in 08. historically republicans tend to vote in ohio on election day in larger number than democrats. every poll shows the state dead even for the most part. reaction? >> first of all you hit the nail on the head. i heard the earlier segment with karl he had the numbers right as well. he wrote a book on this. we are trying to put together an unprecedented ground game. we are far, far ahead of where we were in 08. they were far behind f...

Over their turn out in 08. bill: thats specific to ohio. >> its happening everywhere. there is a usa today story today pointing out that there is a decline for the democrats in early voting. the numbers im looking at indicate that roughly a 10% lead in early voting last time around has been more than cut in half. remember the president won last name around by 7 points. if you drop his number down 5 and grow his opponents number 5 he goes into deficit and loses. bill: is that specific to ohio? an...

Changed minds at national convention. i think it was the pivotal moment for the barack obama campaign that they invited this former adversary in 08, they were adversaries to come in and give a centrist message and also to be gracious to the other side. he said nice words about mitt romney. he still does. even talked about george bush in his speech at the national convention. thats whats been missing in the obama campaign is the transcend ant above partisan politics that made barack obama such a ...

Knows, and young people. because in any telephone survey you way under sample those groups. you oversample women and under sample minorities. they are weighting to the ethic parameters of the 2008 vote which was record high minority and young people turnout. then that falls out into a democratic party advantage. they are technically right. they are not waiting for party, they are waiting for ethnicity and age and it has the same connect. guam which did not do this waiting but took a real sample ...

In 08 against president obama. president obama said they bit early cling to their guns and the like. they are putting in clinton to bolster the swing reagan-clinton democrat vote in pennsylvania. i dont know that that is going to work. ive talked to people in western pennsylvania in particular as well as people in the philadelphia suburbs, i think that could be amazing if pennsylvania goes by half a point or a point for romney, or ohio go that way, mitt romney may not have such a close victory i...

Polls giquestionable. wall street journal and nbc in ohio had a 6-point lead for obama, but 9 points more democrats than republican, meaning the turnout for democrats would be more enthusiastic than 20 08. national poll, use the average of 10 polls, take all 22 polls as of midnight last night, romney leads in 12, obama leads in 4, tied in 6. romney is at or above 50% in 3 and in the average, 48.2 to 47.5, thats pretty darn close. but you get a sense underneath a strength for romney that might be...

I hope he accepts christ like you have and i have. tomorrow is about the soul of america. megyn: the evangelicals did not come out for john mccain. they did for president george w. bush in 2004 when gay marriage was on a lot of the state ballots. but we are told it could be 1.6 million to 6 million voters on the evangelical vote including critical numbers like ohio, and virginia. if they are offering a groundswell of support tomorrow do you believe thats being reflected in the polls? >> not nec...