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Nate virtually 538.com says hillary has an 84.7% chance of winning. and yet are they to be believed? trump accuses that the polls are crooked. he says they are rigged. the usc-"l.a. times" daybreak tracking poll consistently shows trump doing better than the others. as of this morning, 44.2% for trump, hillary at 44.1. what explains the difference and how well do pre-election polls match the final results? i think youre about to be schocked. david lauder is "l.a. times" washington bureau chief. ...

100% and early vote kicks in, i think you may see clinton move up. the other big difference in the poll and why cnn doesnt use our poll, rather than asking a different sample every week, we go, we have a panel about 3200 people. we go to them every week and ask the same questions. so as a result, when you see the poll move, you know its people actually changing their minds rather than just a difference of who answers the poll one week to the other. >> understood. >> the risk -- >> if i misstated...

Outset you said in 2012 he would win by 3.32, he won by 3.85. i wish i had more time. i dont. im fascinated by your poll and like everybody else ill keep watching it on a day-to-day basis. now columbia professor andrew gillman. youre the stats guy i find remarkable your analysis. tell everybody what you just did and with what result? >> we looked at above average of polls for various offices over the past several elections looking at polls during the several weeks before the election occurred. e...

Atm fees up 25% from eight years ago. atlanta has the highest fees, san francisco the lowest at $3.85. whats behind the discrepancy here. overall are we just paying more because banks simply want to make more money off of us sh. >> well, not everybody charges the same price and not everybody charges the same price in every marth so you do see some regional disparities reflecting sort of the competitive makeup from one place to another. but regardless of how high these fees go -- i expect theyre ...

Now. christine romans in the money center. >> higher interest rates are coming be warned here. according to a new "the wall street journal" poll experts think the federal reserve will wait until september to begin hiking interest rates. rates have been rock bottom for so long. you can be sure everything from credit cards to car loans to home loans are going to eventually get more expensive. right now the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage by the way 3.85%. you expect that to slowly start to ris...

Student loan rates. students going to college in fall taking out a new loan they will pay an interest rate of 3.85%, only slightly higher than what was being paid last year. and caps have been imposed so that in the future the rate will never go above 8.25% for undergrads, over 9% for graduate students. if its the parent taking out the loan, just over 10%, 10.5%. thats all the good news. weve rolled back the recent spike. to answer your question, we have not solved the underlying problem which i...

A bipartisan group of senators held a news conference to announce a tentative deal to restore interest rates on federally subsidized college student loans. those rates doubled to 6.8% after congress failed to act. under the deal rates for undergraduates this fall would be rolled back to 3.85% and for grad students, 5.4. the deal would offer the rates through the 2015 academic year but then rates could climb if the economy improves. democratic senator joe mancion. mark murray is joining us. good ...

Be a step forward. >> under the deal the undergraduate students will be able to borrow at a rate of 3.85% this fall, though that rate will climb in coming years but will ultimately be capped at 8.25%. lob loans are a boon for the federal government which is on track to make $51 billion in profits on student loans this year alone. that fact does not sit well with massachusetts senator elizabeth warren who yesterday ripped congress for balancing the books on the backs of poor students. instead of ...

In from outside gallup, the university of michigan, texas, maryland. weve really taken the hood off to look at what we did last fall to try to answer your question. four things, likely voter estimation. we had obama up by three points among registered voters, which is about where he was at the end. won by about 3.85%. moved it down to a one-point romney lead, and that was more than the average for all other models of a similar fashion out there and we think we overcorrected. so the model itself ...

Temperatures meaning americans are using less oil to heat their homes. all that pushes prices down further. prices also spiked after hurricane sandy and have fallen since, shepard. >> shepard: so right now theyre headed down more, right? > >> reporter: thats right. theres a difference between lowest and highest of 80 cents a gallon. 3.85 in long island, in mems me, tennessee, its less than 3.05. the average price of gas in the u.s. has fallen 10 cents in the past week, dipping 3.38 for a gallon ...