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Money and the investment in state operations and turnout is going to make a big difference. >> hers is much more. >> look at ohio, the reason hes doing well there he talks about trade, jobs and change. thats what he should be talking about. >> end of story. >> end of story. >> i want to put this up. i want to look at cnns electoral college map. hillary clinton would have 272 electoral votes without winning florida, north carolina or ohio. or nevada. if that stays the way it is right now, what ar...

Is the race in some of these must-win states? >> erin, we tested three of the most contested states. so these are a lot closer races than were seeing nationally overall. lets take a look first at nevada. where clinton has a two-point lead here. 46%-44% for donald trump. 7% for gary johnson. its one of his better states. we also looked at north carolina. another very close race, basically tied. hillary clinton at 48%. donald trump 47%. johnson lower here down at 4%. and ohio, which is sort of don...

Definited and dramatic if he did make that deficit up on that favorability issue. >> he has three weeks to go. three week and a day. david, magic number, 270 electoral votes. look at polling. where do the candidates stand in reaching that goal of 270? >> well, right now its still advantage clinton. no doubt about that. if you look at all of the states that are currently leaning in her direction or solidly in her corner, she is pretty much over that threshold already. about at 272 electoral votes...

Points mock women who describe themselves as republicans. donald trump is bleeding support from women at a critical time in this race. how to do the national numbers translate in the state levels? call it a case of the battleground blues. remember early trump was going to win across the rust belt. ohio is the best state. plus one in the latest poll. it is not enough. losing in wisconsin, losing in michigan. losing big in pennsylvania. winning in indiana where his running mate mike pence is from ...

Winning in indiana where his running mate mike pence is from but only by four points. that is a very conservative state. tells you how the republican ticket is struggling. clinton is leading in north carolina. clinton is leading in new hampshire. so you switch maps and watch how it plays out. if the election is today we already have clinton at 272. trump is not there. look at the match. clinton leads in nevada. clinton leads in florida. clinton leads in north carolina. trump maybe leads in only ...

Welcome back to "the lead." were going to continue with politics and take a detailed look at each candidates path to 270. last week the numbers leaned barely in favor of clinton. we could see just enough states for her to win election day with 272 electoral votes. that was before the second debate, before trumps explosive "access hollywood" tape, before he started a war within the republican party. to be clear, it was also before clinton started facing more of her own struggles. specifically sto...

Obama and romney. clinton with a three point lead in florida. that is within the margin of error so you would call which a statistical dead heat. this poll was taken before the debate and before the tape came out. so we need to see updated and see if it moved but clinton with slight lead beforehand. this is a very competitive state. hillary clinton trails among men to donald trump. she has about the same size lead among women. so you have your gender split there. this is why clinton has the lead...

This is why clinton has the lead. florida is a moderate state among independents. and the you see among moderates she has an 11 point lead. a centrist state in florida. if you are winning the middle, independents and moderates you can win florida. >> a comeback for trump, can we do it without florida? >> no. ill give you some math, it would be crazy to get him there without it. we have clinton at 272. that would be winning. donald trump at 196. the gold states are the toss up state, including fl...

State, including florida. say donald trump won them all. wins florida, north carolina, ohio and nevada. that gets him in play. 264 to 272. then he would just have to find six more. gives him a lot of options. win colorado, virginia, win new hampshire and something else. but if you take florida, it is 29 electoral vote, anderson. if you take that off the map, if hillary clinton wins florida it puts her over 300. then it is almost impossible. can donald trump do it? sure. hed have to win pennsylva...

By double digits. theyre moving toward the exits, at least temporarily, in the aftermath of this video. thats whats pushed him down from the low 40s into the mid-30s where youre talking about republicans really looking at panic. >> so ron, lets look at the real numbers here. of course, the electoral vote counts. let me pull that up. the road to 270. this is how the math is looking today. it looks like a lot of red, of course, on the map, but it doesnt get him there to 270. at the moment, clinton...