Base Effects News Today

Projection that we present today is very much into parts. Im going to begin with the first part. Starting near term outlook. This chart shows the evolution of Consumer Price inflation and its components since 2018. It shows that inflation has come off the peak in october last year and that it continues to fall over the rest of this year in our near term projection. Thats the piece showed in the shade of part of the chart. This fall can be attributed in large part to a full on contribution from e...

This came through in the early hours, a release for forward, not signed and sealed but it would seem tough negotiations have ended in an agreement. Good morning. Thank you for having me. This is good for the workers, this deal, because it is a 25 Wage Increase for workers, a Reference Point for the other Car Companies that are still striking and i think there is a lot of pressure to negotiate with workers and come up negotiate with workers and come up with a deal because the financial cost to th...

Bills comes through. as your correspondent just told bills comes through. as your correspondentjust told us, household energy prices are already up household energy prices are already up a lot. 28% year on year for gas and yet we have that on the huge rise coming through again in april. if the peak comes then it is going to be probably in the region of 7%, it may be a bit higher, and hopefully inflation will start to come down after that.- hopefully inflation will start to come down after that. ...

Written by Jim WelshMacro Tides Weekly Technical Review 16 August 2021

Jason, what is your reaction to the new inflation numbers and were aware theyre coming from last year when things were way down, because of the pandemic. but lets be honest, prices are way up and people certainly feel it. >> look, last week we were talking about how jobs were way up. today were talking about how prices are way up. to some degree those are related. the united states had a huge, huge responsibility response to covid. that policy response is creating jobs at a rapid clip and also c...

Increase In Core Inflation Wont Be Transitory Bad Timing For decades the Federal Reserve anticipated inflation whenever the Unemployment Rate fell to a low level. In 9 of the last 10 recessions since 1954 the Fed hiked the federal funds rate over a period of time until they went too far. The Unemployment Rate subsequently jumped as the economy entered a recession causing the Fed to slash the federal funds rate. This pattern is consistent especially with benefit of hindsight. The one exception...

Cnbc steve lehman is digging into this report. makes sense prices are up a lot from last year. we were staying at home in lockdown doing nothing and buying nothing. what does this mean for the american people? because we dont remember what we paid for milk or gas two years ago. we remember what it was a week ago and people are freaking out. >> i think thats right, stephanie. here what is happening. you mentioned the concept of base effects. what happened is prices fell like a rock last year. you...

Horrific. base effects will trail off which leads us to 2022. 2022 youll likely see a rollover in economic growth because the base, which is 2021, is so high. at 6.5% in growth this year. next year a slow down in economic activity. higher taxes and higher inflation. while times are good and 9.3 million jobs out there, perhaps people dont take them because the government has now put the market clearing price of going to get a job at 32,000. so youre making less than that, doesnt make sense to go ...

Written by Jim WelshMacro Tides Weekly Technical Review 02 April 2021

Written by Jim WelshMacro Tides Monthly Report 01 June 2021