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Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary.

May 5, 2021 Cole Wilcox started to say “two-seamer” when bringing up the fastball he threw at the University of Georgia. The 21-year-old Tampa Bay Rays prospect then reversed course and called it a sinker, which it really wasn’t. Featuring mostly arm-side run, the high-velocity offering got only a modicum of depth. Given the grip, that kind of came with the territory. More on that in a moment. Wilcox was selected in the third round of the 2020 draft by San Diego, who subsequently shipped ...

May 5, 2021 With a revamped lineup, rotation, and front office, the Mets were supposed to rank among the NL’s top teams, ideally while offering at least somewhat less dysfunction than during the Wilpon family’s tenure as owners. Given an offense that has wheezed its way to an NL-low 3.30 runs per game as the team has stumbled to an 11-12 start, however, the Mets’ brass decided to shake things up by firing hitting coaches Chili Davis and Tom Slater after Monday night’s 6-5 loss to the Ca...

Daily baseball statistical analysis and commentary.

May 5, 2021 Just like we are usually better off using xwOBA over a small sample to evaluate a hitter’s performance, the same concept applies to starting pitchers and using SIERA instead of ERA. So much could happen outside a pitcher’s control, such as balls finding holes through the infield or routinely finding fielders, strong or weak bullpen support stranding baserunners or allowing them to score, etc, that ERA just isn’t a very accurate measure of performance this early. So let’s div...

Ariel is the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. His ATC Projections were ranked as the #1 most accurate projection system in 2019. Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). Ariel is a me...

May 3, 2021 Looking at five big performances from unexpected sources to determine their staying power in the coming weeks and months. Arroyo has been a surprise standout for the Red Sox, hitting .302/.353/.413 in 69 PA and occasionally hitting atop the lineup. He was a top 100 prospect multiple times back when he was the Giants but has become a bit of journeyman since then moving from the San Francisco to Tampa Bay to Cleveland and finally to Boston. At the risk of being simplistic, the fast st...

May 4, 2021 NEW FEATURE ALERT! We have added an upgraded version of RosterResource’s Closer Depth Chart to FanGraphs. Read more about it here. We will always include a link to the full Closer Depth Chart at the bottom of the Bullpen Report each day. It’s also accessible from the RosterResource drop-down menu and from any RosterResource page. Please let us know what you think. The 2021 version of Bullpen Report includes five different sections, as well as the closer chart, which can be found...

May 4, 2021 Wander Franco is the latest prospect to be discussed as a top player in the game before stepping on a major league field field. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was likely the recipient of even more hype in 2018, though he has reminded us at times that there are no automatic superstars in baseball. Franco and Guerrero Jr. have the unique distinction as the only two players to be given the maximum “hit tool” score of 80 on MLB.com’s prospect rankings. Guerrero Jr. (in 2018) scored higher ...

Quick Hits Dustin May will undergo Tommy John Surgery on May 11th after damaging his UCL. He will miss the rest of the season and likely a portion of next year.  Alejandro Kirk will miss 6-8 weeks after injuring his hip flexor. Kirk was starting to come around after a slow start, so this is disappointing. Danny Jansen is in line for more work in the meantime.  Luis Arraez left Tuesday’s game with a concussion. Arraez had a collision at home plate and later was removed. Consider him day-to-d...