not win iowa, it matters but not as much as people think it matters. it mattered for barack obama. >> he came in second, can we show that graphic. bush in 80 surprised everyone to beat reagan. he was not party nominee, and i actually, was covering that. i was a young wi whipper smallsnapper reporter in kansas. mitt romney was nominee and ted cruz in 2016. and who was the n nominee, donald trump. we continue now, ben what to we 11 from iowa and what is applicable about that
not win iowa, it matters but not as much as people think it matters. it mattered for barack obama. >> he came in second, can we show that graphic. bush in 80 surprised everyone to beat reagan. he was not party nominee, and i actually, was covering that. i was a young winne whipper small cappsnapper reporter in kansas. mitt romney was nominee and ted cruz in 2016. and who was the noo nominee, donald trump. we continue now, ben what to we 11 from iowa and what is applicable about that election rat to general
virginia voted democratic 14 of 17 times. carter beat reagan there. dukakis beat george h.w. bush there. that was then. this year, west virginia was the reddest state in the country going 69-27 for trump. no other state has swung in either direction as dramatically or as fast. this week i traveled to the mountain state to find out, did west virginiians abandon the democrats or was it the other way around? west virginia has become quintessential trump country. but it wasn't always that way. white working class and religious west virginia spent most of the 20th century as a model new deal state. those days are long gone. today the mountain state has flipped from blue to red. in 2014, west virginia elected shelly capito, its first republican senator since the eyes eisenhower depression.
the white working class vote. voters who used to define its base and no place symbolizes the blue to red switch more dramatically than west virginia. the mountain state used to be the most reliable of democratic states. from 1932 through 1996, west virginia voted democratic 14 of 17 times. carter beat reagan there. dukakis beat george h.w. bush there. that was then. this year, west virginia was the official ly the reddest state i the country going 69-27 for trump. no other state has swung in either direction as dramatically or as fast. this week i traveled to the mountain state to find out, did west virginians abandon the democrats or was it the other way around? west virginia has become quintessential trump country. but it wasn't always that way. white working class and religious west virginia spent most of the 20th century as a model new deal state. those days are long gone.
said carter would beat reagan. hamilton jordan white house chief of staff, said the am scan people are not going to elect an almost 70-year-old, former actor who is a right-winger to the presidency. pat kadell said i am sal vagt over the data on reagan there is so much here we can use to defeat him. as it turned out. it didn't work out so well. >> david, one of governor kasich's advisers tweeted saying regarding trump. iffage in age >> and all of the publicity, that was the best tweet. and that's what i -- >> i should point out that donald trump does not actually drink. >> that's true. that goes to another point, anderson. the person who may do well against donald trump, is not straight on hard hitting. someone who does it with humor.
classic heads i win, tails you lose policy for republicans. immigration has been framed as a referendum as to whether you accept the role of latinos in american society, and republicans are viewed as having placed themselves on the wrong side of the question. i don't think that would change if you were to vote against legislation. we do have some experience with this type of legislation in the past when what was openly described as an amnesty passed in 1986 and the post-amnesty cohort was more democratic in its voting preferences than the hispanic americans prior to that. it didn't really benefit the republicans. >> this is just important. can we show this line graphic again? i think you're making an effort from a descriptive level, an important political case. in 1984 mondale beat reagan among latinos 24%. in 1988, after the amnesty, dukakis beats george h.w. bush by 39%. so the swing towards democrats was plus 15% in between the two elections in which the amnesty
it was a stunning but i think the key now for the obama campaign is not to panic. remember, walter mondale beat reagan in the first debate, went from 18 points down to 4 or 5 down, and wound up losing 49 states. don't panic. stay on message. put surrogates out there to rebut the things that he talked about in your opening. but don't put david axelrod and david plouffe out. >> he's a little too late on that one. >> i'm saying from now. they're very good guys, they're smart, but they're in the campaign. put ow elected officials, put out deval patrick. put out jennifer granholm and have them deliver the message. >> we are going to talk a lot about style and substance, and the president and what he did and did not do last night. but in terms of the response to mitt romney, i think part of the problem was nobody was expecting mitt romney to say things like, there's no $5 trillion debt to
>> i'm going so ask you both for your assessments looking at the field. is the republican party now so red hot they don't want to hear from a cool-headed middle of the road type? >> no, there's always a turn in the campaign people start looking at electability. >> already? are primary voters and caucus voters impulse voters? >> people we hear from now are emoting and as the calendar goes on and pool of candidates expand, they are more sensible and pragmatic. >> smarter to run romney? >> romney's making this case, and i think there's an open question as to whether perry -- >> alex, i've heard the argument democrats love to run against the far right because they can beat them easily. carter thought he could beat reagan. is that your general view, do you accept that view? >> i don't know of the the next debate is in florida. go down there saying social security is a ponzi scheme,
from a cool-headed middle of the road type? >> no, there's always a turn in the campaign people start looking at electability. >> already? are primary voters and caucus voters impulse voters? >> people we hear from now are emoting and as the calendar goes on and pool of candidates expand, they are more sensible and pragmatic. >> smarter to run romney? >> romney's making this case, and i think there's an open question as to whether perry -- >> alex, i've heard the argument democrats love to run against the far right because they can beat them easily. carter thought he could beat reagan. is that your general view, do you accept that view? >> i don't know of the the next debate is in florida. go down there saying social security is a ponzi scheme, you're going to have a hard time winning the message war in that one, chris. >> we'll see, i'm betting perry.
>> i think romney is making this case. i don't think that there is an open question as to whether perry -- >> all my life i've heard thing a umt that democrats love to run against the far right because they can beat them easily. carter thought he could beat reagan. is that your general view? i think the red-hot guy off then wins the general. >> the next debate is in florida. that's senior country. you go down there saying that social security is a ponzi scheme, you're going to have a hard time winning the message war on that one, chris. >> we'll see. i'm petting on perry. i i'll see it again. i think people vote their gut. anyway, sasha issenberg, you may both be wrong. wait until you hear what i say when we come back opinion i think this will surprise people. you're watching "hardball" only on msnbc.