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Vaccine Economic Boom and Bust :: The Market Oracle ::

By the numbers, the US looks much better than it did than a few months ago. Jobless claims dropped to their lowest levels of the pandemic; COVID-19 vaccine shots went into arms at a record rate. But we’ve seen how this goes. The virus spreads in waves that recede and then return, often stronger. Some areas of the US are experiencing their fourth wave of coronavirus cases. Vaccinations are supposed to break this cycle. And maybe they will. Unfortunately, that looks less likely as vaccine ...
New York United States John Mauldin Stephen Mcbride New York Times Economic Boom

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We Need Infrastructure Spending to Avoid Another Texas-Sized Mess :: The Market Oracle ::

I just talked with one of the most successful hedge fund managers in the country (in terms of returns over the last four years). He will not allow me to use his name. But I can tell you he is a raging bull. He believes the stimulus that we already had plus what we will get—coupled with a major infrastructure bill, plus extraordinarily easy monetary policy, combined with significant new technology innovations—adds up to a new bull market. This is someone with 5X returns over the last fo...
New York United States John Mauldin Ginnie Mae New York Times Nadeem Walayat

The Case for Inflation :: The Market Oracle ::

overstimulation risk will far exceed the “output gap” shown in the latest Congressional Budget Office economic projections. What is an output gap? Gross Domestic Product measures (or at least tries to) economic growth. Economists also calculate “potential GDP,” which is how much the economy  could grow, if every available worker and other resource were fully employed. Inflation tends to occur when actual GDP exceeds potential GDP because the economy is “running hot.” An out...
New York United States Bill Dudley David Rosenberg John Mauldin New York Times

Will the Vaccines Be Enough to Save Us? – Investment Watch

That day will come. For now, the economy depends on the coronavirus. Both have cloudy forecasts. The best case: Vaccines, combined with previous infections, immunize enough of the population to let the previously normal economy return. We’ll travel, gather, and meet face to face without fear, and without pesky precautions like masks. That could happen, maybe even by mid-year,  if everything goes perfectly. More likely it would be late 2021 or early 2022. Unfortunately, the vaccine campaign ...
New York United States United Kingdom Patrick Watson John Mauldin New York Times

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