Seth s graphic [click for big]:
We ve gone with Gabe Brown and Rocket Watts as starters, because who starts is always up in the air and they ve played the most minutes recently. Also we ve got two rows for the bench, because MSU.
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THE THEM
One thing you can say for Michigan State is there sure is a lot of it. A whopping twelve players have played at least 10% of MSU s minutes; Kenpom s lineup guess shows six different bodies playing some minutes at center. Tom Izzo has been running a blender all year as he tries to find lineups that work and frequently ends up starting guys who play 10-12 minutes. Only two guys are significantly above 20 MPG. Most assertions of who will start and what role they will play are low confidence.
@OSU (46%)
Illinois needs Michigan to lose at least twice to have a chance. Going by win percentage, 15-2 (88.2%) edges out 17-3 (85.0%), which would be the case if M drops a game and the Illini win out. 14-3 is an 82.4% mark, so running the table would do it for the Illini if the Wolverines lost two of their remaining games.
About that last bit: given the above win probabilities, Illinois has a 7.2% chance at winning out. Say Illinois goes 4-1 down the stretch; that d put them at 16-4 (80.0%). Michigan could lose two games to close the season and still edge them out in win percentage, albeit just barely. It s more likely Illinois goes 3-2, which would make them 15-5 (75.0%), and that d allow the Wolverines to drop three games and still take the title at 13-4 (76.4%).