Page 4 - Bradley Effect News Today

In washington politics, important people go on the sunday public affair shows and really important people if theyre in the middle of a big story, they go on all of them. it is called the full ginsburg named after monica lewinskys lawyer. another is the bradley effect. the situation where voters tell pollsters theyll go one way, only because they dont want to admit their real choice and thats nailed after tom bradley who lost despite the big lead in the polls before hand. or supreme court fans kn...

Values. many of the things that president trump just put in here, while they may not be true, like weak on crime, do you know anything about doug jones, are not true, but will resonate with a republican in alabama. could polls be wrong? could there be more people who are going to walk in and vote for roy moore and they just dont want to admit it? >> they could be. it could be a version of the bradley effect we might call the trump effect. people dont want to be associated with that person and so...

Race, 50% to 47%, as "the washington post" has it. but there are a lot of concerns about polling in alabama right now for this race, especially because this is a special election, special elections dont occur regularly, so theyre hard to poll for. this one has the allegations of sexual misconduct, which could create a huge variable. those allegations you just mentioned at the top. alabama generally has been a place thats tough to poll in. also, this is during the holidays, another variable, and ...

I mean, that is a challenge that has the most catastrophic possibilities of any weve seen since the end of the cold war. >> this reaction isnt new. we saw it during the campaign and we saw people questioning his confidence and his temperament and this isnt new. in some ways, you remember in 1982 when mayor bradley ran for california and we had the bradley effect and there was the social desirability progress, and he was leading in the polls and he lost and we need to talk about the trump effect ...

Big tests for both the hurricane relief and the response to north korea. they want to have the feeling that he has some control in these two big challenges and especially north korea. i mean, that is a challenge that has the most catastrophic possibilities of any weve seen since the end of the cold war. >> this reaction isnt new. we saw it during the campaign and we saw people questioning his confidence and his temperament and this isnt new. in some ways, you remember in 1982 when mayor bradley ...

Temperament and this isnt new. in some ways, you remember in 1982 when mayor bradley ran for governor of california and we had the bradley effect and there was worry about social desirability bias, and he was leading in the polls and he lost? we need to talk about the trump effect. there are folks who will tell us that hes incompetent and that tmz video is hornt, brible, bu the end of the day, theyre going to support him. >> for his supporters, they tolerated the tweets, some of the chaos during...

And he cant afford to lose anybody. do you think that that is still an argument to be made? after all, she might have won the popular vote, bt he won the electoral vote. he won where the votes mattered most. >> theres an argument to be made. id like to make an analogy. remember the bradley effect where folks would say that they would vote for ael black mayor. >> and then they wouldnt actually do it. >> and then they went into the voting booth and they didnt do it. we might want to talk about the...

Polls. how can polls accurately measure what likely voters are thinking? they did not do well this year. why? one phenomenon to consider here, the bradley effect. that term was first coined 35 years ago when african-american tom bradley, by the polls, looked to be a shoo-in for californias governor. only he lost. some political scientists reasoned thereafter voters were saying yes to pollsters over the phone or in person, but when in the polling booth with nobody around, could not and did not ...

Percentage points lower on average in live interviews compared to digital polling where they didnt have to talk to anybody. perhaps why his surprise win in the primary and later in the general just days ago. voters sing one thing, but doing another and in big numbers. joining me is john meechum. thank you for joining us. didnt we see a reverse bradley effect this year that favored trump? >> i think we also saw polling itself became part of the establishment, that the trump vo voters some accou...

Where people said they would never support ronald reagan, hes an actor and governor, said trees cause pollution. those polls are fairly even. he ended up winning by a landslide. im not saying there were different factors there, but i am saying sometimes you read inflexion points in elections where people say one thing and do quite another. what do you think? >> you make an excellent point. the technical word for that is the bradley effect. and im sure youre familiar. basically what happens, yeah...