Page 5 - Bradley Effect News Today

When national security issues become more and more relevant, like in paris, san bernardino, look at the threats going on for new years eve, experience, on-the-job training, donald trump, the voters in the early states might say, i dont know if he has what it takes to be the commander in chief. so its not inevitable that he could win. >> i know of the infrastructure in place, anything could happen. the bradley effect goes both ways. its been showing their support for fear of retribution for fear ...

Something. >> i think redemption matters and this is an old story. the fact that the left have to trump up mediocre and ridiculous stories like this this proves to me that racism in america is not as prevalent as people would like to believe and i do believe this is going to lead to black racism fatigue in 2016. if you consider the bradley effect in 1982 where a bunch of white voters said they were going to vote for bradley and stay home. >> apples and oranges, elisabeth, with how black people v...

Call but bill the ay any t cm@u pa thats issue of intensity and how is mitt romney performing against the margins in2004. 2008 isnt the2004d very well in the you remember back he part of the that mitt romney did he was and over again. but if he has a strong performance in the panhandle, well have a good @xindication i think, about republican enthusiasm in otherts. nelson had a terrible debate. so much for debates. >>right. >> you know whats pcwowerful watching? the numbersnsioning there hasnt be...

Campaign. which one is you, ed? >> im the fat guy in the middle. megyn: you look great. dont laugh, joe we have one for you, too. that was tom bradley, 1981. megyn: everybody talks about the bradley effect. >> all three exit polls said we won the governorship. i remember watching on tv our chairman being asked on the floor what it felt like to be the new chief of staff to the governor of california. that was one where no one told him. we knew -- we were looking at returns coming in over the comp...

Wisconsin and either iowa or new hampshire. >> he will win iowa, wisconsin and colorado. no question. the minimum elect tore really votes he has and he has a shot at ohio and pennsylvania. >> i was there all weekend. i can make your argument and that is the scott walker recall. >> yeah! >> no, no, but thats a big thing. but you look at the policy, its very tight. its very -- >> screw the policy. give me a break. the. >> you have to look at them. >> the polls basically are these states, its a tie...

>> then he has to win colorado, wisconsin and either iowa or new hampshire. >> he will win iowa, wisconsin and colorado. no question. the minimum elect tore really votes he has and he has a shot at ohio and pennsylvania. >> i was there all weekend. i can make your argument and that is the scott walker recall. >> yeah! >> no, no, but thats a big thing. but you look at the policy, its very tight. its very -- >> screw the policy. give me a break. the. >> you have to look at them. >> the polls basic...

Racist. if you are against obama, you are a racist. if you are against the testimony plus bill. >> and you think it has oppressed people in terms of telling people who they are really voting for? >> thats what the bradley effect is naming over. tom bradley in california, it happened to denkins and doug wilder himself. the polls overpredict a victory for a black candidate. we havent seen it go the other way. we havent seen an in couple pant helped by a tie. we havent seen a republican helped by a...

Of the 538 blog. as of this morning, silver methodology gives president obama an 85.1% chance of receiving the majority of the electoral college votes on tuesday. and winning another term in office. mitt romney has just a 14.9% chance according to silver. those numbers are generating a lot of controversy and part of the issue is trying to understand what silver means when he talks about probability. so cornell x you said we got it talk to the people. im thinking yeah, but he seems to do well pre...

All that, but dont discount the enthusiasm issue that ends up overcounting some exit poll votes. and i dont buy the bradley effect on an incumbent anymore. i just dont. not an incumbent. >> we will see. i will tell you, mika, the romney campaign has expressed concern about what david said, and that is the mormon effect. what i tell them is i think theyre dead right, and that means that theyre probably going to only win oklahoma by 39% instead of 41%. thats something they do need to work on. utah...

States. but in ohio, as chuck says, the obama team is looking at even if theyre losing some of that support, until those numbers start to dramatically change in the state and tighten up, thats where they feel everything gets won. >> so lets talk about an issue that we havent heard a whole lot talked about this year. it was talked about four years ago. and i want to ask you guys if were going to see any residual effects of what happened four years ago. i remember walking around every primary nigh...