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Slow, but solid US economic growth anticipated in Q1; inflation likely heats up

U.S. economic growth likely slowed to a still-solid pace in the first quarter while inflation accelerated, reinforcing financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve would delay cutting interest rates until September. The Commerce Department's snapshot of first-quarter gross domestic product on Thursday is expected to show consumers still doing the heavy lifting for the economy, thanks to a resilient labor market. The economy has defied prophecies of doom since late 2022 following the U.S. central bank's aggressive rate hiking campaign to snuff out inflation.

Slow, but Solid US Economic Growth Anticipated in Q1; Inflation Likely Heats Up

Fed rate cuts in doubt as rising housing costs stall progress on inflation

Expensive home prices and rents complicate the outlook for the economy and President Biden’s reelection campaign.

US labor market cooling; unemployment rate rises to two-year high

US labor market cooling; unemployment rate rises to two-year high of 3.9%

Modest slowdown in US job growth expected in January

U.S. job growth likely slowed marginally in January as a resilient economy and strong worker productivity encouraged most businesses to retain their employees, a trend that could see the economic expansion sustained this year. The closely watched employment report from the Labor Department on Friday could further diminish financial market expectations of an interest rate cut in March, with annual wage growth forecast to have maintained its solid pace last month. The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday.

Modest slowdown in US job growth expected in January By Reuters

US economy defies recession fears, showcases strength with impressive Q4 performance

US economy shrugs off recession prediction with strong fourth-quarter performance

Moderate US economic growth expected in fourth quarter

The U.S. economy likely grew at its slowest pace in 1-1/2 years in the fourth quarter as businesses throttled back on inventory investment and consumer spending cooled a bit, but the pace was probably enough to have kept a recession at bay in 2023. The Commerce Department's advance fourth-quarter gross domestic product report on Thursday, which is also expected to show inflation moderating last quarter, will reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates some time in the first half of this year. "We are expecting growth to come in right in the sweet spot for the Fed," said Scott Anderson, chief U.S. economist at BMO Capital Markets in San Francisco.