and he s actually committed the larger part of the entire russian military to this operation. so it s not like he s got infinite reserves that he can keep pouring into this battle. 0k, you ve described this as a criticaljuncture in world history, and if russia is defeated, it could lead to a new birth of freedom, which paints a picture of what i imagine you consider a very positive goal. i wonder then what you think about the west sitting by, if this fight is so important? how do you feel about the fact that the west has been united, yes, on sanctions, supplying arms, but not going any further? well, i think that s probably prudent. i think a no fly zone or some of the other interventions that have been suggested would require directly attacking russian forces on russian territory. and i think there are enough uncertainties and dangers to escalation that that s probably a prudent position. i wouldn t exclude it in the future, if the humanitarian
a calculation we may make, but wars never go the way that you expect them to. you re fairly confident, though, that this is, that in effect, russia is not going to win. yeah. does that mean president putin is ousted? no, it doesn t. but i do think that if he s forced into some kind of a humiliating political retreat or, you know, an actual military retreat, it s going to be very hard for him. his whole persona is one of a strongman, and if a strongman isn t strong and actually, you know, faces defeat, i think that, you know, it s possible that somebody in that elite is going to move against him. 0k. and he d be replaced by what? in this world that you envisage where the criticaljuncture, where russia doesn t win president putin is weakened, what happens to him or who is he replaced by? well, it s hard to imagine that there s going to be another right wing dictator waiting in the wings that s going to be
keep pouring into this battle. 0k, you ve described this as a criticaljuncture in world history, and if russia is defeated, it could lead to a new birth of freedom, which paints a picture of what i imagine you consider a very positive goal. i wonder then what you think about the west sitting by, if this fight is so important? how do you feel about the fact that the west has been united, yes, on sanctions, supplying arms, but not going any further? well, i think that s probably prudent. i think a no fly zone or some of the other interventions that have been suggested would require directly attacking russian forces on russian territory. and i think there are enough uncertainties and dangers
forced into some kind of a humiliating political retreat or, you know, an actual military retreat, it s going to be very hard for him. his whole persona is one of a strongman, and if a strongman isn t strong and actually, you know, faces defeat, i think that, you know, it s possible that somebody in that elite is going to move against him. 0k. and he d be replaced by what? in this world that you envisage where the criticaljuncture, where russia doesn t win president putin is weakened, what happens to him or who is he replaced by? well, it s hard to imagine that there s going to be another right wing dictator waiting in the wings that s going to be worse than him because he s got unlimited ambitions and he s been willing to use the most brutal means to do that. i think that, you know, if he is removed, they re going to come to some kind of a peace settlement that will involve a withdrawal. but, you know, we don t know. i mean, it s impossible
half of them are abandoning their vehicles rather than standing and fighting. so i do think that there is a fighting chance that the ukrainians could actually force a withdrawal of the russian army and impose a pretty humiliating military defeat. and there is a chance, though, backed into a corner, that president putin could ramp up the weapons he s using, whether it s chemical or even nuclear. the nuclear part, i think, would be so suicidal. and i don t, you know, he. we can t exclude anything that he might do, but i really doubt that that will happen. chemical weapons, unfortunately, may be more plausible, but militarily, i don t think that s actually going to buy him very much, and he s actually committed the larger part of the entire russian military to this operation. so it s not like he s got infinite reserves that he can keep pouring into this battle. 0k, you ve described this as a criticaljuncture in world history, and if russia is defeated, it could lead