a calculation we may make, but wars never go the way that you expect them to. you're fairly confident, though, that this is, that in effect, russia is not going to win. yeah. does that mean president putin is ousted? no, it doesn't. but i do think that if he's forced into some kind of a humiliating political retreat or, you know, an actual military retreat, it's going to be very hard for him. his whole persona is one of a strongman, and if a strongman isn't strong and actually, you know, faces defeat, i think that, you know, it's possible that somebody in that elite is going to move against him. 0k. and he'd be replaced by what? in this world that you envisage where the criticaljuncture, where russia doesn't win president putin is weakened, what happens to him or who is he replaced by? well, it's hard to imagine that there's going to be another right wing dictator waiting in the wings that's going to be