What transpired with the EUR/USD pair last week? It behaved as expected on Monday, 01 April. However, starting from Tuesday, the situation deviated. Let's delve into the details. On the first day of April, data on business activity in the US industrial sector from the ISM for March showed the economy is on the rise: PMI increased from 47.8 to 50.3 points, crossing the 50-point threshold that separates growth from contraction. This marked the end of a downward trend lasting over 15 months. With this sector accounting for over 10% of the US GDP, the PMI growth is a vital indicator of an economy that easily withstands high interest rates. Thus, logically, this data benefited the dollar, pushing the pair to 1.0730 - its lowest since 15 February. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East also supported the strengthening of the American currency as a safe haven.
Dollar Weakness and Investor Demand Boost Gold Futures Gold futures basis, the most active April contract (GC J24) gained $9.10 or 0.45% as of 4:40 PM ET. Dollar weakness contributed approximately half of today’s gains, with the dollar index (USDX) declining by 0.24%, with the remaining 0.20% directly attributable to investors bidding the precious yellow metal higher. Exchange volume was rather subdued today, with daily volume falling well below the monthly average. Advertisement Rate Cut
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The dollar extended its drop on Friday after the Feds preferred gauge of underlying inflation showed muted price gains, affirming the central banks pivot toward interest-rate cuts next year. The Swiss franc rose to the strongest level against the US currency since 2015, while the euro and Norwegian krone rose to their highest levels since August.
“There is nothing called sitting on cash because this is a bull market. You will have enough opportunities maybe coming your way but you have to see where you can deploy your cash. Also, the dollar weakness is here to stay. I see no recovery. I would say the dollar is going to double digits over a period of time.”