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July 16, 2024
Kennedy nixon. I dont know if we will see element of that, but you will see way over the 80 million four years ago for clinton and trump. The interest is ginormous. Jonathan it is a spectacle. It is golden tv. Does it have consequences . That is the question. Monmouth university come out with a pole that said just 3 they are very likely to hear something that will impact their eventual vote choice. We will all be watching. Will it have consequences . Tom let to get the theater out of the way rig...
July 16, 2024
Fed kicking off its meeting today. For more on what investors are watching, sarah hunt is here from alpine woods capital. What could the fed due tomorrow that would most upset the markets . Give i think they did not a lot of detail about how they were going to make sure when it was time for them to change their inflation standpoint, when was too much over. If they narrow the window and say we are looking for a tiny bit of on the inflation side. I think they are expecting inflation to run hotter ...
July 16, 2024
Euroyen shows you the dynamic away from the dollar, translated. It is all about the weaker dollar across the board when i look in yields, i really look at the inflationadjusted yield as a 0. 92. 2012. Reaches the jonathan 2 trillion and 99 days. A 2 trillion spread between democrats and republicans, and 99 days until the election. You have to believe the president steps forward and says it needs to be bigger. Tom no question about it. The president just reads the riot act to his republicans abou...
July 3, 2024
Poised potentially for of for the week of losses. In the bond market, the epicenter of the headlines. 170 is the estimate on wall street. Tom we will conflate a lot of economic talk. My major message is that the market still matter. It will be fascinating to see the reaction to the jobs report. Is a good news or bad news later this morning . Tom you know how much i hate that. I get confused by it. Employment is a big deal. 170 is a generous number and the Unemployment Rate matters. Jonathan lisa...
June 30, 2024
Current is performing well are a risk on currencies, dollaryen lower by 4 10 of a percent and the question is why . We will tackle that. And yields in the u. S. On the tenterhooks, pretty much going nowhere. 50 a barrel for crude oil. David and it is the big one, we will get the cpi numbers and they will give us a read on inflation. And then retail sales figures for january. 11 30 a. M. President trump meeting with members from both sides of the isle to talk about the infrastructure plan. Alix a...
June 30, 2024
Economy that is about to get more tailwind from the tax policy. It suggests the job market is going to heal and i would be surprised if the bond market did not take this into account. Is 4 . Unemployment rate in the last 70 years, we have never seen Unemployment Rate at 4 when the deficit spending is set to increase from 4 deficit to 5 so this is an economy , running hot right now. Wages are gradually beginning to pick up and there is evidence we are closing in on full employment and this is the...
June 30, 2024
We think it is a overall positive backdrop for the economy that is about to also get more tailwind from the tax policy. It suggests the job market is continuing to heal and i would be surprised if the bond market did not take this into account. This Unemployment Rate is 4 . In the last 70 years, we have never seen the Unemployment Rate at 4 when the deficit spending is set to increase from 4 deficits to 5 , so this is an economy running hot right now. Wages are gradually continuing to pick up as...
June 30, 2024
We think it is quite solid. We got quite good news today. We think it is a overall positive backdrop for the economy that is about to also get more tailwind from the tax policy. It suggests the job market is continuing to heal and i would be surprised if the bond market did not take this into account. In the last 70 years, we have never seen the Unemployment Rate at 4 when the deficit spending is set to increase from 4 deficits to 5 , so this is an economy running hot right now. Wages are gradua...
June 30, 2024
Policy. It suggests the job market is going to heal and i would be surprised if the bond market did not take this into account. The Unemployment Rate is 4 . In the last 70 years, we have never seen Unemployment Rate at 4 when the deficit spending is set to increase from 4 deficit to 5 , so this is an economy running hot right now. Wages are gradually beginning to pick up and there is evidence we are closing in on full employment and this is the start of a more pronounced acceleration in wages. I...
June 29, 2024
Urges patience as the economy continues to outperform. It is hard to talk down your currency when fundamentals are improving. The currency has found a headwind, but we believe we are justified by the domestic strength of the economy. The reason they are not too concerned by the euro is it exogenous shock. It is a manifestation of the confidence of the eurozone and their policy. The eurozone is now growing as much as the united states. I dont know if you change Monetary Policy if it affects that ...