edge on national basis according to gallup and pew interesting swing. obama led mccain this time four years ago by 15 points according to gallup or by 19 points according to pew. so it s been a 22 or 26 point swing in the republic s favor. they get this from exit polling. how do they get the data. try to read by party registration. x number of democrats. bill: they have to have that on the ballot. on a lot of the states not all of them. bill: their projection is that romney is winning by how much. 7%. that s on a national basis. and then when you drill down on specific wing states it differs, some polling of actual vote in nevada and iowa that shows president obama is doing better than mitt romney in those states and those are the states that going to decide the election. i think that s because and this is karl rove speaking now not me more democrats ordered voted early than republicans.
edge on national basis according to gallup and pew interesting swing. obama led mccain this time four years ago by 15 points according to gallup or by 19 points according to pew. so it s been a 22 or 26 point swing in the republic s favor. they get this from exit polling. how do they get the data. try to read by party registration. x number of democrats. bill: they have to have that on the ballot. on a lot of the states not all of them. bill: their projection is that romney is winning by how much. 7%. that s on a national basis. and then when you drill down on specific wing states it differs, some polling of actual vote in nevada and iowa that shows president obama is doing better than mitt romney in those states and those are the states that going to decide the election. i think that s because and this is karl rove speaking now not me more democrats ordered voted early than republicans. bret baier will be anchor next
edge on national basis according to gallup and pew interesting swing. obama led mccain this time four years ago by 15 points according to gallup or by 19 points according to pew. so it s been a 22 or 26 point swing in the republic s favor. they get this from exit polling. how do they get the data. try to read by party registration. x number of democrats. bill: they have to have that on the ballot. on a lot of the states not all of them. bill: their projection is that romney is winning by how much. 7%. that s on a national basis. and then when you drill down on specific wing states it differs, some polling of actual vote in nevada and iowa that shows president obama is doing better than mitt romney in those states and those are the states that going to decide the election. i think that s because and this is karl rove speaking now not me more democrats ordered voted early than republicans. bret baier will be anchor next
reporter: let me just a warning the way in my experience on exit polling is the more enthusiastic group, the more excited voting group, the more anger, sort of the more angrier even sometimes when it s smaller will sometimes overperform. so what did we notice? for instance, you had in the scott walker situation, the anti-walker vote. that was a more fired-up base, so they were gung ho to get to the polls even though there wasn t enough of them. and they overperformed, if you will, in the exit poll. we saw that with obama. we saw that with john kerry in 2004. i think here s the thing. i wouldn t be surprised if romney is overdone a little bit in the exit poll. if he overperforms with the real vote is because don t forget election-day voters are going to be more republican than democrat because democrats have done so much of the early vote. and we compensate for it. we do our best to survey it and
what is this, exit polling of people who have mailed in their ballots? right. when you ask in the poll you say, have you voted early? if they say yes, say who did you vote for? look, you d rather be up 15 points in early vote than not up 15 points, i ll say that. now, i talked to republicans before because i knew we were going to talk iowa, and republicans say, yes, we are losing the early vote, we knew we were going to lose the early vote in iowa, but we re losing it by a declining margin from last week. we re losing it on a declining margin as it compares to 2008. it depends which side you think is more important. i would say mitt romney, unlike john mccain remember, john mccain took public financing. mitt romney had $183 million in the bank at the end of september. my guess is that kind of money pays for significantly more volunteers, more ground operation.