Page 5 - First Midterm News Today

Back now with "end game." i want to put up a simple chart which is presidential approval and number of seats lost in a midterm. first midterm. we have donald trumps rating, 46%. we dont know how many seats his party will lose. check out barack obama. his approval rating, 47%. 63 seats were lost. bill clinton, 48%, 54 seats. hugh hewitt, 46%. i have some republicans going, well, hey, thats survivable, but if you look historically, and i think one of the things we failed to do in 16 was remember h...

Back now with "end game." i want to put up a simple chart which is presidential approval and number of seats lost in a midterm. first midterm. we have donald trumps rating, 46%. we dont know how many seats his party will lose. check out barack obama. his approval rating, 47%. 63 seats were lost. bill clinton, 48%, 54 seats. hugh hewitt, 46%. i have some republicans going, well, hey, thats survivable, but if you look historically, and i think one of the things we failed to do in 16 was remember h...

Its the latter. well see what the final result is. but even a final result where democrats lose is still not going to ease the concerns republicans have and know about this fall. theyre facing big head winds. historically that is true for the party in power in the presidents first midterm, but obviously because of trumps polarizing effect and upside down approval ratings, thats having a bigger impact for republicans. >> what signs do we get specifically from this district? its a more educated di...

So what could be behind this? one possibility, simple. its the economy. its the economy, stupid. remember when the democrats said that in 92. seems to be in pretty good shape right now and trumps approval on the economy up over 50% right now. thats up from a few months ago. we just talked about north korea. a lot of suspense there. but until the developments in the last day or two, things seemed to be heading in a potentially positive direction. trumps approval rating was up to 53% on north kore...

Obama was president. first midterm. at this same point in 2010, you took that generic ballot, democrats were ahead. they were up on average in the generic ballot. they had good news they were pointing to. the democrats were saying theres not going to be a republican wave. then look at what happened in the end. republicans gained 63 seats, one of the most catastrophic midterm elections a white house party has had. that really didnt take off that republican advantage in the generic in 2010 didnt r...

Hes sitting there at 44% now. you dont put presidents on mount rushmore being at 44% in the polls. but if youre at 44% heading into a midterm and you were at 37% before, that could make a big difference for your party. so what could be behind this? one possibility, simple. its the economy. its the economy, stupid. remember when the democrats said that in 92. seems to be in pretty good shape right now and trumps approval on the economy up over 50% right now. thats up from a few months ago. we jus...

Democrats. that might not happen. i did not happen in george w. bushs first midterm, largely because of the post 9/11 atmosphere, which is leadership was generally well received. it helped him and his party. i dont know we have a cause here that would replicate that. i think it is uphill for the republicans all the way, no doubt about it. they would be well advised, if you suggest, tucker, more powerful than running against the out of office out of luck, beaten candidate, hillary clinton. >> tuc...

Six senate seats of the house, nancy pelosi would go on to become speaker. 2010 is many year for president trump. 46% obama. lost 6 senate seats and 63 seats in the house. republican capture the house. hold it to this day. so look at the 46 for president clinton and obama, those were first midterm. president trump will step in the clal about 46% approval rating well below president obama and a little above george bush in second midterm. easy for the democrats to get it back? no. but republicans ...

Box -- although they feel like ive got more money in the bank, more foot on the table, i can buy more christmas presents. things are feeling. good. >> confident and normal would be good. if republicans look competent and governance is normal, it will be good. they can expect to lose some seats. the end party loses seats in the presidents first midterm. thats just how it rolls. lets say republicans are lying to lose 10, teen seats. they can handle it. what they have to be worried about is does it...

Republicans love him? >> well, the republicans have to come to grips with the fact that in the presidents first midterm, historically speaking, the party thats out of party gets really mad that they just lost the election and they all get together and try to win. when youre in that position, as the democrats are in now, they dont have to be for anything. they just have to be against something. what theyre against today is the presidency of donald trump. hes got a low approval rating. theyre agai...