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October 19, 2023
Latest report reveals financial watchdog missed the mark on inflation and growth
January 31, 2023
More people stung by threshold freeze than expected as pay growth boosts tax take
November 23, 2021
The purpose of our paper is to describe a probability scoring rule that reflects the economic performance of a hypothetical investor who acts upon the probability forecasts emanating from a given model or human expert by trading against a market-clearing consensus of competing models and forecasts. The probability forecasts being compared are aggregated by an equilibrium condition into a market consensus reflecting the wisdom of the crowd. A good forecaster (model or human expert) is measured as...