For years, it was taken as a given that fantasy replacement level varied by position, such that a C, a SS, and a 1B with the same exact line would have…
April 1, 2021
Bold prediction season is the best. Just a chance to lay it on the line and lean in on the guys I am most excited about (or most unexcited about). For my bold predictions, going to go with an Ottoneu focus. And let’s get right to it.
1.
Nick Castellanos is a top 10 FanGraphs Points OF. His Depth Charts projection pegs him at a .337 wOBA, 32nd highest among OF. The market likes him a bit more – his $19.50 average salary in first-year FanGraphs Points leagues is 24th among OF. I think those are both too low. I was going to boldly predict a .360 wOBA, but THE BAT X has him at .361, so I feel the need to be bolder. Top 10 OF. Castellanos has been hitting the ball harder dating back to August 2019 and posted a career-high walk rate in 2020. He chased fewer pitches, too. I think he brings the strike outs back down, gets better batted ball luck, and breaks out in a big way.