Great Alignment News Today

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Joe Biden’s approval numbers are weak and are reminiscent of the numbers from some recent presidents who lost reelection.— However, Biden is still very competitive in polling with the current leader for the Republican presidential nomination, Donald Trump, in part because voters still have less negative attitudes toward him than they do toward Trump, according to the 2022 American National Elections Studies Pilot Study.— A key bloc of voters who would prefer...

Race, education, and partisanship from Reagan to Biden.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— The American electorate has changed dramatically over the past 40 years, and a pair of factors — race and education — have driven the changes.— The electorate has become more diverse and more highly educated. Democrats rely heavily on nonwhite voters and have improved with white college-educated voters, while Republicans have cut deeply into Democratic support with non-college whites.— Racial and cultu...

Race, party, and ideological congruence in the American electorate.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— One of the big stories of American politics over the past half-century has been a growing ideological divide between Democrats and Republicans.— This has also led to more ideological cohesion within parties, including a dramatic increase among Democrats between 2012 and 2020. Democrats are now as ideologically cohesive as Republicans, which is a big change from a decade ago, when Republicans wer...

What a predictive model tells us about the last decade of results, as well as 2022KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings.— Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization.— Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the ...

Democratic share of the Latino vote has been highly variable from election to election.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— One key question in American politics is the trajectory of Latino voters. Donald Trump performed better in 2020 with Latino voters than he did in 2016, particularly in places like South Texas and South Florida.— However, an analysis of the longer-term trend in Latino presidential voting shows that this growing voting bloc is not necessarily trending one way or the other.— Pr...

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE-- Based on presidential voting patterns, a much larger proportion of U.S. House districts strongly favor one party and a much smaller proportion are closely divided than 50 years ago.-- However, gerrymandering is not the major reason for this trend. Partisan polarization has increased dramatically in U.S. states and counties, whose boundaries have not changed.-- Moreover, despite the growing partisan divide evident in presidential voting, the competitiveness of House...

The country seems more polarized than ever. Here’s what that means for the next election

Decision makers need to address the framework of their traditional hiring processes and update them with hybrid hiring strategies.

Voting procedures, turnout, and vote margins in the 2020 election.KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— In the aftermath of the high-turnout 2020 election, many Republican-controlled state governments have passed legislation that Democrats believe will harm their party’s voter turnout.— However, voting rules did not appear to have much impact on turnout and had no measurable impact on vote margins at the state level in the 2020 presidential election.— Both voter turnout and voting decisions in 2...

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE— National House generic ballot polling can be a useful tool in projecting the overall results of House and Senate elections.— The president’s party often loses ground in midterms, but the magnitude of those losses varies greatly depending on the national political environment and the seats held by each party prior to the election.— A model using the generic ballot and seat exposure shows that a single digit lead on the generic ballot would give Democrats a go...