and so we ve downgraded the growth number. the number for the second quarter was 2.1%. so it s not stalling out but it s becoming less impressives a talking point about how effective president trump has been. a lot of trump supporters say i don t find his behavior very admirable, but the tariffs and other things may be robbing him of some of the force of that argument. brand new polling out from quinnipiac. biden at 53% of african-american democrats and democratically leaning voters. closest trailing him is sanders at 8%. and where s kamala harris? kamala harris is at 7%. that s surprising, isn t it? what is it? i think it s name recognition. and if there s something about again this whole election is going to be heart versus he. we want to win. joe biden is a known entity. he may have had some stumbles, but there s still this feeling
because there are a lot of conversations obviously with a slowed growth number with the 2.1%. still better-than-expected though. but it s down from the 3.1 and president trump promised 4% or 6% he said. neil: but they destroyed that. well i do enjoy when they do that but it s an interesting conversation i feel like democrats are going to have to be having when they are talking about this economy because the economy is neil: but is their spending plan and initiatives going to really be a good counter argument? i don t know if you have to make the counter argument when you have the $16 billion bail out for the farmers which their analysis is saying it s like too much of a bail out they went above what they needed to, to compensate for the impact of the tariffs. i think there is a whole for democrats to be talking about hipocracy on that side obviously about the spending and the priority. neil: but if they are spending one about spending and they are talking about blowing all of
gdp in the second kwart ter. gdp at 4%, sometimes he said higher. economists estimate 1.8% growth in the second quarter. the atlanta fed, its estimate just about 1.3%. the new york fed 1.4%. that s down pretty decidedly from 3.1%. several factors may affect that number. boeing. anymore delays and approvals to fly the 737 max could jeopardize production. the timing of the max crisis couldn t be any worse. tariffs also dragging on the economy. despite the slowdown in manufacturing, consumer sentiment is strong. that s crucial for the growth
down. but we haven t seen it hit quite yet. there are positive signs. productivity is growing. that s a good sign for the economy. it means that those wage gains may be sustained. so we re seeing a foreshadow, not a flat point? exactly. yesterday, lydia, the president, he shrugged off the jobs report, at least the growth number. and he says the economy is doing well. watch. the economy is very, very strong. if you look at the stock market over the last few months, it s been great, certainly since my election, it s been up to getting close to 50%, the stock market. so we re obviously very happy with that. president obviously will take credit for all of that, how much can he, should he take credit for, considering his policies over the last two years? well, the president conveniently left out the giant dive in the stock market at the
working. let s talk growth. i know you guys are happy and america is happy about the growth number we saw this week in terms of economic growth. you told the wall street journal yesterday you think we ll see 3% or greater growth for the year. my question to you is what could stop that? what could get in the way? namely in a china trade deal doesn t come together would you still foresee 3% growth if the tariffs are ratcheted up? well, again, the reason we see 3% growth is the model that 16 months ago said we would have 3% growth in 2018 is actually saying we ll be a little bit better in 2019 than last year. we think maybe 3.2 this year. the model has worked well. it s based on peer reviewed science. last year we got 3.1 though there was a lot of uncertainty about trade. if you think about champiina, ee and the rest this year it s upside that we get great deals and celebration about access to