not bound by any if limitations in the state constitution. the other side says that that is a delegation to the legislature, but the legislature can mean anything that is in the law making process of that state, so the gubernatorial veto and judicial review. so the immediate question is whether this house map in north carolina stands, but there could be broad or consequences as we get toward 2024. paul: dan, some of the commentary on this from the political left in particular has been, i should say, hyperbolic in the sense saying democracy itself is in jeopardy if they, the justices read the election clause as favoring the state legislature dominating, having the dominant say over election law. or it even could empower donald trump to help him win the election in 2024. is any of that credible? no, it really is not because
them more competitive. by looking at the house map, the other thing i point to, that speaks to the candidate quality, the independent vote, the exit polls, independent voters trended toward democrats by 2 points and if you look at a share of voters who somewhat disapprove of the top president biden is doing tended toward democrats by four points and those are remarkable figures when the issue set should have played toward republican hands, the crime and inflation figures that are elevated, 7.7% year over year was the report that came days after election day and voters made distinctions and look at these candidates who are not telling the truth about the 2020 election and looking for somebody else. jerry: president biden s midterm take away, he s doubling down on his policies saying the election outcome doesn t change a thing.
only for a house majority but to knock off the very prominent democrat and the deputy of the speaker nancy pelosi. so, jake, as we go back to you, we are still working on a house map. it looks okay for the republicans but it does not look like a blowout. not necessarily. not and we have another big projection for you right now. cnn is projecting that in the state of new hampshire, live free or die, democratic incumbent senator maggie hassan we ll be reelected, defeating retired general don bolduc. maggie hassan will be reelected, cnn is projecting. this is a seat that republicans thought they could win. they thought they could defeat hassan. they were very bullish. they were talking all week about momentum being their way. and instead, maggie hassan, the democratic senator, holds on to that seat, cnn is projecting. let s look at the balance of power right now in the u.s. senate. you know 100 seats democrats currently controlled 43 of those seats, with the senator hassan keeping her
that region. if you look at the house map, where the competitive house seats are in new york state, yeah. there s two on long island that are currently democratic held that are open seats that voted for biden, won by eight, won by 12. the hochul is getting blown out on long island, those can be republican pickups. and there s three, the 17th, 18th, 19th, and one is the chair of the d seat. if hochul has a close call statewide, if she s winning, it s areas she s probably losing. and yeah. three democratic-held house seats on long island. that could be on an ideal night for republicans a net gain of five seats out of new york. what do they need to win the house? a net gain of five seats. steve kornacki, all of the early warning signs to look for tonight. thank you so much for laying it all out for us. and joining us now, charlie sykes, founder and editor at
homestretch. but when the money, and where they re spending it, speaks the loudest. a really fascinating house map, taking shape here, as we head into election day. but look, the other thing that s important to follow, in addition to the money, is the surrogates. where are these parties putting their headliners in the walkup to election day, look no further than how the first lady spent part of her weekend, in sean patrick maloney s district, happens to be my hometown, clearly a sign that this is a place where democrats and republicans both are putting their resources ahead of eave election day. that s right, i ve forgotten you re new york girl. thank you. senior editor with the cook political report joining me now, david wasserman. good to see you again. so do you think a red wave is possible? probable? or likely, in this midterm election? it depends on your definition of a red wave. we think the likely gain is a dozen seats but not the 54 seats that the republicans gained i