Intensity Forecasting News Today

Will come from. zero to 4 in 21 hours, wow. >> janice: rapid intensification and a lot of reasons why it exploded so quickly. national hurricane center did a good job in measuring that, that is one thing that is hardest in forecasting to do intensity forecasting. they knew we were going to have rapid intensification from 1 to 3, borderline 4 before making landfall and part of the reason is warm temperatures of gulf of mexico. normally warm, that is high octane fuel for the storms. we knew if an ...

The bahamas, the southeast coast. most reliable computer models have it moving out to see but we have to watch this because we are days away. a lot to talk about in the tropics. you never know what they are going to do. intensity forecasting is one of the hardest things in meteorology. even tropical storm imelda was the depression and the storm and made landfall yesterday. >> donald trump continuing his fundraising push in california expected to attend a private fundraiser in la today before hea...

Yeah, its going to slow down, its not going to be a 4, it will be a 3 or a 2. this was as advertised, my friend, if not fiercer. i kept watching and thought theres not much room for it to slow down. i think we were all stunned by how quickly it spun up. it felt like it went from zero to 60 or in this case zero to 150 in a couple of hours. >> ill be the first to admit, we have a lot of development to do for intensity forecasting. three days ago this was supposed to be a low end category 1 hurrica...

Caribbean, tropical depression nate could gain steam before it make landfall this weekend. rob: jenna steam is tracking its path. >> we will have to watch this, the area of low pressure is close to land. it wont have a lot of chance to develop in the next 6 to 12 hours but we expect it to be named, it will be nate and we expect potential for a hurricane as it moves over the gulf of mexico. if theres a difference between the big storms we have seen this season it will be a quick mover and we thin...

Where everyone wants to wait and see. >> yes, intensity forecasting is not good. >> yes. thanks a lot for that, bill. >> still ahead, epic battle in the wild card. including something that has not been accomplished since the very first world series. wnba. people are starting to use the word dynasty in minnesota. tell you about that next. :. both: kimchi bbq! amazing honky-tonk! i cant believe you got us tickets! i did. i didnt pay for anything. (sigh) you never do. send me what i owe. ive got it...

Just dont know which way its going to turn out yet. depends on the details of this track. >> how can you explain to folks how it is that you are able to collect the data you need and model it to get ever more accurate predictions of f the storm track? >> welsh thats the wonders of science. in the past 25 to 30 years, the advances in meteorology. only a third of what they were 30 years ago in terms of the error and track. so much smaller and were making progress on intensity forecasting as well. ...

Considering its five days out. it still looks like florida will have to deal with isaac as we go throughout sunday night, monday and all day tuesday. let me give you a closer view now of the end of the forecast cone. remember, the cone of uncertainty is the storm could be anywhere in the yellow. thats like the margin of error. the center line the most likely predicted path of right now. the hurricane center thinks possibly a category 1 storm. i still think the high end would be probably a cat 2 ...

Outs so there is the cone of uncertainty, a large margin of error five days out and it makes up all of the computer models, some, again, are best at forecasting long-range forecasts and some are better in intensity forecasting, and some are better at the track, so we take all of those interest account with the cone of uncertainty, and i want to show you a more reliable models in terms of forecasting long-range, and take a look at the possibility for tropical storm hurricane coming very close to ...