Intensity Numbers News Today

Lets keep that on the screen, and, ed, explain why thats important. >> first of all, in terms of intensity, that is going to dictate who is more likely to vote in the election, number one. number two, that gets into all the economic models -- i mean all the political models in terms of can he win, can he not win, which all the political models are predicting that president trump will not win re-election where the economic models are predicting hes going to win. but i think the key is, is that sh...

Kind of held back initially, hoping that maybe the president would come to him and nancy pelosi and do revitalization of american infrastructure and cut a big deal with them. there was none of that. there was no compromise to bring better health care thats cheaper and that covers everyone. there was -- go back to the old playbook of tax cuts for the rich, and tax cuts for the rich that are even more skewed than those under reagan and bush. so i think that is why youre seeing these numbers move t...

Of them showing the president leading. in the face of that, the sea of blue, why does the romney campaign see that theyre going to win in the face of that. >> theyre looking at the intensity numbers and the fact that the president on the ballot is at 47.5, 48.1, 48.2 in state after state. i think thats at the real danger point. if youre at 49 or 50, thats a very different deal. at that 47 or 48 number, romney campaign believes the numbers are going to break for them on election day. >> do you th...

The writing was on the wall. we were going to lose the election. and so it brings out the best in some people. it brings out worst in other people. the senior people on the romney campaign, both sides are confident that theyre going to win the election on tuesday. so that isnt coming from the top echelons in the romney campaign, for sure. >> the confidence of the romney campaign, we both know both sides project confidence. theres more reason for romney than for you guys at this point in 2008. bu...

Seeing the leaks about paul ryans future in this we didnt want you, we want ed when you look at the swing state polls overall, why does the romney campaign see that they are going to win even in the face of that? >> they are looking at two things. they are looking at the intensity numbers and the fact that the president on the ballot is at 47.5, 48.1, 48.2 in state after state. and i think thats at the real danger point. if youre at 49, youre at 50, its a very different -- thats a very different...

30% of those are strongly opposed to path to citizenship. on the other side, if you look at people who favor that, intensity numbers, those who strongly favor it are 13%. much lower. >> it shows you that height now its probably okay for republicans to oppose this. the demographics are against the republicans. over the long-term they have to solve this problem. >> bret: last word. >> i think the republicans have to demonstrate sincerity. and to propose measure where if the governors of the four s...

30% of those are strongly opposed to path to citizenship. on the other side, if you look at people who favor that, intensity numbers, those who strongly favor it are 13%. much lower. >> it shows you that height now its probably okay for republicans to oppose this. the demographics are against the republicans. over the long-term they have to solve this problem. >> bret: last word. >> i think the republicans have to demonstrate sincerity. and to propose measure where if the governors of the four s...

They want to say yes. voting is an active affirmation. saying yes is basically the kind of expression that when you vote for an incumbent youre saying yes, things are fine i want to keep going in this direction. the wrong track numbers are bad for the president and his party over the big issue, big economic issues are very bad for the president and his party. it may be, looking at the intensity numbers mark is talking about, you saw them in june 2006 when democrats took control. you saw them bac...

Intensity numbers. >> theres a tsunami. >> frankly, i think 32 is the floor. its not the midpoint and not the ceiling. i think this things going to going north of 32, but 32 is like the defensible number. my gut is this things going higher. >> thats when you saw where the poll was taken, the 60, 70 districts look at charlies list of the most competitive ç districts. it wasnt just polling in once they say these are the tossup ones. a lot of ones were ranked right now as leaning democrat. if tho...

When you start taking the bigger numbers, the intensity numbers, all these other -- >> if theres a tsunami. >> frankly, i think 32 is the floor. its not the midpoint. its not the ceiling. i think it will go north of 32. my gut is this thing is going higher. >> thats when you saw where that poll was taken in the 60, 70 districts. look at charlies list of the most competitive district. a lot of those were in the ones right now ranked as leaning democrats. if those go, then, yes, were up to 45, 50 ...