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So you think that despite the fact that your models are less confident of a hillary victo victory -- >> i dont think the main difference between the models is how far clinton is ahead. the difference is how far the results could differ from our current estimate of the race. >> you still think, in other words, on the coin toss, trump might win. >> it could happen. >> really. >> guys, thank you. real pleasure. >> thank you. next on "gps," america has never seen an election like it, but surely, t...

International affairs, im also aware of how fragile democracy is. look at poland. the poster child for democracy in europe over the last 25 years, where a new party in power has subordinated the judiciary courts and media to its authority. look at russia, where the democratic tradition so promising in the 1990s has almost vanished. look at turkey, where a once reformist leader has decided to accumulate power and erode traditions of freedom and democracy that were rare in the middle east. it does...

I believe hillary clinton will win. i dont think it will be by a large margin, but she will win. i believe the senate can go democratic, and if it does, you have a very interesting dynamic in the senate. you have a progressive caucus for the first time. senator warren, senator sanders, senator sherrod brown, jeff m k merkl merkley. i think you also have the ability to hold hearings on things that matter to the american people. bernie sanders asked the department of justice to hold hearings on dr...

At this point, the most likely outcome is probably a 50/50 senate with whomever the vice president is breaking the tie. >> we keep talking about tuesday as though its election day. but in fact, 40 million people roughly have already voted. what do we know from the early voting? what conclusions can you draw? >> i think that we know this is a presidentialelectorate. this will not be a low-turnout election. many parts of the country, the turnout will surpass that of 2012. a presidential electorate...

In this election in ways we have not seen in a long time. the stunning absence of any policy discussions, maybe on immigration and trade a little, the trivialization, the obliteration of the line between news and entertainment, the abetting of donald trump. now there has been fine reporting, but until we have a media which illuminates and its not left/right. its about public interest and what is in peoples communities, whats on peoples minds. were destined to have a kind of demagogry which affli...

Refusing to legitmo mimize the election by threatening investigations, inquiries, impeachment. these poisonous altitudes have also infected law and justice, such as the fbi. these might seem like small erosions, but each one takes a hammer to the foundations of democracy. until the cracks become too deep and the entire edifice begins to cr crumble. the founding fathers of this consistentry, choof among them, alexander hamilton, worried that it was week. after the constitution, a woman in philade...

Destructive to me because its very difficult to compromise when you think your opponent belongs in jail. >> it is destructive, it is intense. there are pres dnlts, and they were also dangerous. i think we should go back to 1800 and look at the politics that led up to that election, the contest between adams and jefferson. adams had passed acts in 1878. it turned to great violence in france and a growing paranoia, to quote jon meacham, about french refugees. there was a concern to keep french ref...

How good the 90s were for the united states. for all of the political -- >> but to brets point, the 90s were very good on the surface, but there were already serious planted seeds that caused a lot of problems over the next couple decades. i think what either for hillary clinton to govern effectively or for trump to win to govern effectively, they need to start with a massive dose of humility. the recognition if they won, they won because the other pa partys candidate was so bad, and with that h...

Threw the election to jefferson. it was sort of in the electoral college context, and that produced the bitter enmity between bur and hamilton that led to hamiltons death. we have seen similar politics. it was a paralist state of affairs. the country was in a dangerous state and required aggressive work to rectify. adams at the last minute tried to reduce the number of supreme court justices on the court so jefferson couldnt make appointments there. there are a lot of close parallels. it took ha...

2016 campaign? has there ever been a more divisive election? have there ever been two candidates as unpopular as today, and what about the explosion of populism, has the united states seen anything like it before. well talk about all this and more with a great panel of historians. jon meacham is the author of destiny and power, a biography of bush 41. danielle allen is a government professor at harvard university and a columnist for the "washington post." conrad black is a former media tycoon an...