Page 202 - Methodology News Today

Unemployment rate, if you take the last ten years prior to the 2009 recession, the 10-year average of lets call it the participation rate, how many people are working temporarily, full-time, and you take that number and take the ten year average and ran it now, work for us, you would have an unemployment rate close to 11% and thats what the real unemployment rate that people are feeling out there, not discouraged workers walked away all that stuff, but thats the real rate. now, this number of 7....

Most polls ippedicate the president is ahead there. but the romney people are arguing that they are missing this republican enthusiasm that has been animated by the great debate and a lot of work . if that is true, there will be an examplation - examination of the methodology of national polls that were taken there. but he will have to put together the 270 electorial votes and he will need to win most of the other major competitive state. wisconsin, and nevada, and obviously florida and virginia...

You cant go diving in front of a microphone with someone who says i like to fire people or you didnt build that. these campaigns have gotten to an absolute dead heat and we may be up for a long time. if ohio has to wait 10 days to count provisionals we could be looking at this for a long time. they may have a lot more to go even after they hit the tape. megyn: he says both cams in his estimation are genuinely convinced they are going to win. could that be? >> sure it is. it depends on your own p...

353,000 americans filed for first time unemployment benefits. this report is supplied by the government every week. one of the things were watching every day is another report that a private company provides on what is happening in the job market and apparently theyre changing the way theyre calculating some of their data and that is raising some questions. all of this ahead of the big october jobs report coming out tomorrow just four days before the election. liz macdonald is on this from the f...

Theyre trying to grapple with something that im sure there are going to be a lot of studies about six months from now. but seems like everybodys whistling past the graveyard, their methodology seems suspect, they cant figure out how many early voters to put into the mix, cant tell how many cell phone people -- it seems like an absolute mess. whats going on here? >> i know, i think its wobbly. you just described the problem and the answer to the problem. the publics a bit adrift right now and try...

Good degrees. >> and they havent pulled out all the stops are to the obama backers campuses around the state. but they are very close to it they managed to pull out busses to get folks three times a day campus to do early voting as well. they have been using all sorts of methodology to try to make sure people know they have got to get in to help the president in their view and they want folks to know that the effort is still there. >> we have been out here every single day almost since school st...

Our methodology is extremely solid. were open about how we do it. so i would say what were doing is great and not the unusual that people would fight back that dont hike what you find. >> lets talk and get into the weeds. people seem interested in polling methodology. the big complaint made about the gallup poll is how you judge whos a likely voter. they say you put too much emphasis on how enthusiastic is voter is and may overstate the effect of a big event. the first debate which may have boos...

Decisive a victory as romney. >> when you look at the wall street journal poll they take polls in one day period of time over two-days. gallup poll is rolling average. wall street journal we look at as a rolling average as well. there are other polls very similar. this is a very very close race. the gallup poll in distinguished organization but i would not take that. its too far off the mark from where the wall street journal poll is which is a poll i have followed a long time and trusted. >> th...

Decisive a victory as romney. >> when you look at the wall street journal poll they take polls in one day period of time over two-days. gallup poll is rolling average. wall street journal we look at as a rolling average as well. there are other polls very similar. this is a very very close race. the gallup poll in distinguished organization but i would not take that. its too far off the mark from where the wall street journal poll is which is a poll i have followed a long time and trusted. >> th...

Slashed his wifes tires. yesterday morning he apparently went to his wifes work place and opened fire there. >> we seen about 10 people leave the building with their articles up, running out screaming. we saw a woman crawl out of the front door and roll down the hill. the cops scooped her up and taken her to the ambulance and taken off with her. bill: three people were killed, four others were wounded. police have not said whether the suspects wife was among the victims. >> i think other methodo...