or another but when that 50 miles means making a direct impact on florida or not there are big impacts one way or another. this was hurricane matthew a few years ago and the forecast, all the guidance was saying it would go up florida in land. it ended up skirting just offshore sparing florida and causing hurt in the carolinas. this is a similar possible scenario with the storm and it is moving to the west, a lot of good agreement on that westerly track in the short term. where it makes that turn we don t have great agreement between our models, don t have great agreement between each model runs and that s why we don t have confidence in his forecast. there is a possibility the storm turns before it gets to florida, gets very close, big impact on the coast but not as big if we had the landfalling system in florida and then potentially a
towards south carolina. right now the national hurricane center isn t jumping on that and we totally agree and concur because we need more model runs and consistency. put the two together and what do you have as a scenario? almost like matthew which caused historic flooding in the carolinas. we still have landfall. this is the new track. now it goes straight up inland along the eastern coastline and that could be catastrophic because of the population to feed the system with heavy rainfall. keep in mind florida has had an incredibly wet year, especially this month of august, so it s s saturated. also the winds, it stays as a category 2 to the north, let s hope that in the models they continue to trend east and offshore. because when this system moves in, this could be, depending on the speed, it s not going to be harvey like being so slow, but
florida coast ahead of dorian. we start with cnn meteorologist allison chinchar. so dorian s newest track will come out within the hour. what do you expect to see. we may see a change in that track. we ve had new model runs come out for both the american and european model and both of them showing changes which may in turn result in an official track change from the national hurricane center. but here is what we know now. hurricane dorian winds at 115 miles per hour. that officially makes it a major hurricane. the movement is still to the northwest at about 10 miles per hour. we re going to have to focus on that direction and that speed over the next 48 to 72 hours. because that is going to answer two very essential questions, where it makes landfall and when does it make landfall. but as of now we still anticipate additional strengthening up to a category 4 storm. unfortunately it will be that strength as it crossed over the
it could still drop a lot of rainfall because it s already saturated. the feeder bands will hit it and then that core of all that rain moves up to the north. there s still a lot of changes. we re going to see that. because it s shifting east, we maas may see some heavy rainfall. irma was such a mess, people were traveling from one side of the state to the other because the track kept changing. we ll see what happens in the next couple of model runs. thank you, tom, with the latest forecast. let s head up to florida s east coast to the city of sebastian where martin savage is. residents i take it are stocking up, boarding up, sound the alarm of the danger and it s a real danger from dorian. yeah, they are, wolf. in fact, they re in the final stages of this home. this is the last piece to be put in place, the front door. yoou you ve got to get every single opening closed up because any weakness means it will be exposed and the home itself is a
orleans isn t there today because of that northerly sheer. it goes away tonight and the storm does turn to the north and heads towards louisiana. the southern coast. but where it does it go after it makes landfall inthat s the ban key. here s new orleans right in the midd middle of the new model runs. we always think the newest model should be the best because it s the shortest distance because the area where they are now and where it will be. 50% of the u.s. offshore platforms are in the cone right now. here s the radar for the day. this is what it should look like. the rain mainly offshore, but there will be storms that pop up in the heat of the day everywhere across the southeast. by tomorrow morning this thing gets its act together. it doesn t even have a real center yet.