Open Hazards Com News Today

Now we actually do forecasting ourselves on our open hazards.com website. weve done some calculations that you can go there and see. ive written a blog about that that says theres a chance, 4 or 5% chance a year of 6-magnitude earthquake within 60 miles of downtown and 30% chance within three years. that is still not certain within the sense we dont know for sure those things are going to happen. all we can do is calculate probabilities. bill: northridge was 20 years ago this year,. >> i thats c...

The literature, but on a website called open hazards.com. we are actually going to establish an advance, i think, in earthquake forecasting technology and time. the way we do that is by counting small earthquakes we expect a six for every 1 house. the technique is to couldnt the number of small earthquakes since the last large earthquake, and then you can develop probability laws that tell you what the chance is of a larger earthquake in any given time. >> do you think well be able to narrow tha...

Time. gregg: any way to know how large? >> well, not exactly. thats not an exact science yet. we actually do forecasting on our own web side called open hazards.com. what were talking about is a triggering probability. another possibility, by the way, is that this mexicali earthquake occurred on the southern extension of the el señor fault, less active than the san andreas fault but still very active. gregg: and what does that mean? very quickly, im almost out of time. >> if that thing goes, th...

And i guess this one particular volcano is pretty dangerous because it caused floods the size of the amazon, sent boulders as big as houses tumbling down into valleys and roads, and the last major eruption was 1918. floods followed in as little as an hour. how do you handicap it that were going to see katla explode? >> well, you know, we spend a lot of time trying to understand risk, and there are various places like the santa fe institute in new mexico where were interested in risk. we also hav...