Page 23 - Sam Wang News Today

The Politics of Counting Civic organizations worked hard to spread the word about the census in hard-to-count communities. On December 31, 2020, the Census Bureau missed a crucial deadline that caused a huge sigh of relief in Democratic circles. Statutory law dictates the Bureau must report the data that will determine reapportionment of House seats to the president by the end of the year. But a global pandemic and administrative interference combined to make this impossible. It was the first m...

In Wisconsin, hidden flaws in new proposal for electoral votes January 12th, 2021, 1:56pm by Zachariah Sippy State Representative Gary Tauchen (R) has introduced a bill in the Wisconsin General Assembly to change the way electoral votes are allocated. Instead of a winner-take-all system, his proposal would dole them out by congressional districts. At first, this plan looks like it would help Republicans. But the real long-term beneficiaries might be Democrats— and take Wisconsin off the nat...

Hold a press conference in july recommending no charges for clinton while castigating at length her conduct, particularly for being "extremely careless." comeys now infaus letter to congress on october 28 saying he was looking into new e-mails discovered on a laptop shared by clinton aide huma abedin and her husband anthony weiner. then he sent a letter two days before the election to congress saying nothing new has been found. in a statement today comey said "i am grateful to the department of ...

Investigation are the actions of fbi director james comey, specifically his decision to hold a press conference in july recommending no charges for clinton while castigating at length her conduct, particularly for being "extremely careless." comeys now infamous letter to congress on october 28 saying he was looking into new e-mails discovered on a laptop shared by clinton aide huma abedin and her husband anthony weiner. then he sent a letter two days before the election to congress saying nothin...

For the democratic candidate. even if hispanics are coming out, thats not a seal for hillary. a vote cast on election day is worth the same as an early vote. with some of the cutbacks in the alrea early vote hours, say in north carolina, we cant exactly know how the electorate is going to change too much with african-americans. it wouldnt be surprised if turnout was down given of course that barack obama was the first major party nominee who was black. >> will both of you agree this will get res...

>> you did laugh. >> i did laugh. >> 538 thought he had a zero r percent chance. >> uncertainty is smart. i have no problem with being less incertain and most people should be humble and recognize polls arent perfect. we have a polls plus and a polls only model and theyre showing the xablth same thing. >> i think that people have often focused on the differences between the polls. those differences are fairly modest compared to indifferences between either of our models and what sam shows. you k...

38-yard field goals. it happens. we have all seen it. there was a game on sunday night involving my seattle seahawks two weeks ago in which there were two kicks missed from even closer in overtime. you know, i dont want to bring up a hard moment for a bills fan, but the bills lost the super bowl in a game winning kick. >> but the kickererize more accurate. >> let me ask you what very respected polling expert at princeton university says. he says you guys on 538 are overcounting polls. "huffingto...

Kick. >> but the kickererize more accurate. >> let me ask you what very respected polling expert at princeton university says. he says you guys on 538 are overcounting polls. "huffington post" says you are actually deliberately unskewing data in a way that, again, pl e places your thumb on the finger for trump. not doing it for trump, but the effect is to overrepresent trumps advantages. sam says that most important thing you should look at, first of all, he thinks this model makes no sense. the...

Up something like 53 seats plus or minus two. they picked up 63 seats. so it was well outside of his margin of error. the fact is we work very hard on these models. ill tell you this much. if you go back to early in 2015 and told me donald trump would be the republican nominee for president. i would laugh at you. >> you did laugh. >> i did laugh. >> 538 thought he had a zero percent chance. >> uncertainty is smart. i have no problem with being less urn certain and -- uncertain and most people sh...

Than later on tuesday, because some of the crucial states are in the eastern time zone. if she wins north carolina, its over. if she wins florida, its over, right? im going to ask you now, i am going to go with sam wang, 312. you must have an electoral vote count that you have figured out. >> ill go with 318. >> okay. >> 322. >> higher. all right. so you think that despite the fact that your models are less could be if i dent of a hillary victory -- >> i dont think the main difference between th...