Small Lassen County News Today

>> all right, steve kornacki what? >> ventura county, next to l.a., another big one, 800,000 people. 2/3 came in in ventura county, trump was 38, recall is 36%. target for recall to succeed, about 54%. if recall is running 54% in ventura, its looking good statewide. 36% in the mail vote right now. again well see. is there a flood of same day that could move it up dramatically? would have to be extremely drat dramatic. thats the fourth county short of the benchmark. santa clara, overwhelmingly de...

Significantly under where it needs to be. when you ask could we get an official result here, i think its a question, brian, of place like los angeles county, seeing little bit of the same day vote to make sure theres nothing going on there we werent expecting. unexpected votes, bigger margin than expected, something to bring 23.7% up to 40%. that would have to happen in county after county. fresno, a million people. heart of the san joaquin valley. we got 60%. trump at 45%, recall at 46%, needs ...

Country. trump 28%, 27%. seeing if theres exceptions to the pattern. far northern california, tiny counties, rural northern california, trump 75%, recall running at 82%, this is largest swing in positive direction from trump to yes on the recall weve seen. see how small lassen county is, 6700 people. and theres millions of votes in los angeles. this is most republican part of the state, also the smallest part in terms of where population is. geographically big counties, population small. santa b...

Recall needs to be close to 70% to have a chance. sacramento suburbs, placer county, outside of sacramento, trump won this county. it has highest concentration of college degrees for a county that went for trump in california in 2020. got 52%. yes is running 3 1/2 points below trump, 48%. again, for the recall to have a chance statewide, probably has to be 64%, 65%. around there. its running low. expect it go up a little bit with the same day vote but would it go where it needs to go? just dont ...

Potentially to narrowly win riverside county. but whats the target? whats the benchmark for the recall to be succeeding statewide? remember what we said, take the trump number and add 16 points because he was blown out in california. 45% in this county, recall would need like 61% in riverside county to be on course for narrow win statewide. recall right now based on the historic math is on course for about 50, needs to be over 60. notice the pattern in county after county. did we get -- san bern...

Now, 31.5% might go to 35%, 36%. theres more republican counties in the area, curran county, we dont have numbers yet. shasta, where redding is, dont have number theres, could get number up into higher 30s, but big picture, brian, mail-in vote coming in county after county, seeing mail-in vote recall is nowhere near the targets it needs to be competitive statewide. early mail vote is totally consistent with exit poll that showed gavin newsom comfortably surviving the recall. its consistent with ...