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January 2, 2023
This week’s simulation shows that the most likely range for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield in ten years is from 1% to 2%.
December 26, 2022
The negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has now persisted for 125 trading days, widening this week to a negative 91 basis points.
December 12, 2022
The negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has now persisted for 115 trading days, with the spread steady this week at a negative 76 basis points.
November 28, 2022
The negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has now persisted for 105 trading days, with the spread wider this week at a negative 74 basis points.
November 7, 2022
1-month forward U.S. Treasury yield now peaks at 5.60%. Read why future expenses that all investors are trying to cover with their investments are an important part of investment strategy.
October 31, 2022
The negative 2-year/10-year Treasury spread has now persisted for 82 trading days, widening to a negative 39 bp from negative 28 bp last week. Read more here.
October 24, 2022
This week’s simulation shows that the most likely range for the 3-month U.S. Treasury bill yield in ten years is from 1% to 2%. Read more here.
October 17, 2022
The 2 year/10 year spread in the US Treasury market has now been negative for 72 trading days. The spread is currently minus 48 basis points.
October 3, 2022
A rational extraction of market expectations from the US Treasury yield history since 1962 shows an upward shift this week. Read more here.
September 12, 2022
The forward 1-month U.S. Treasury yield now peaks at 4.98%, up 3 basis points from last week. Click here to read more about the weekly forecast.