Upticket Voting News Today

Sit there and say, huh, im going to sit at home and give it to him. i dont think anyone has ever bullied the presidency away from another party or scared them away from voting. and im just saying look at those lines today. people are waiting two, three, four hours. they dont seem to be afraid that were going to head into a morass. well deal with that when the republican radicals get back. >> its interesting, clinton during impeachment when bill clinton was quite popular and i think hillary clint...

>> we have some bad hombres here and we are going to get them out. >> who is going to pay for the wall? >> mexico! >> whos going to pay for the wall? >> mexico! >> youve ripped out that mexican thing again. >> and some, i assume, are good people. >> the groups donald trump has insulted and threatened during the course of the campaign, mexican-americans were the most consistent of his targets. lucky for trump, they have typically voted at lower rates than other demographic groups. 2012, 48% latin...

Conducted there. if you look at indiana, you see evan byes chances dip. so its been a very bizarre thing where it almost seems like voters are voting for candidates instead of for parties. isnt that a wonderful thing? or maybe not. >> i think it goes both ways. i think parties are a pretty useful proxy. evan is a revolving door senator and he went and worked in d.c. and hes getting hammered for that. in nevada, thats a race that, again when you look at the math, you think joe hack who is running...

Arent competitive, so they dont give you the same electoral bang for the buck. they are not turning out at the same rates. but the flip side of that is if you have latinos voting what african-americans do, that would be a massive change to the structure. >> it would be a huge change. democrats are expected to do better there in large part because latinos are finally motivated to vote in that state. arizona is a key example of that. at this point, joe arpaio is favored to lose re-election and tha...

Through history where we know most voters vote early in that state, and we know that party affiliati affiliation, which tends to hold through election day. there are a percentage of people who voted and if that holds to election day, its difficult for donald trump to win that state. so, matt, what is your sense from the early voting data and the polling and then stuff in arizona and i think the arizona story is fascinating. if you look at arizona, i said this the other day, georgia looks more ...

Pneumonia. there was this big friday-saturday blow-up when hillary had a pneumonia. bout. the polls went south for five days and it was a major interruption. weve seen that same thing. some early polls, after this comey shocker, people like my barber told me the fbi had reopened this investigation, when that false information got out, i think it interrupted the race. i think were back to where the race was now. i think she clearly has the momentum, as you talked about the early voting states in ...

States when you compare what the numbers say in early votes versus a model or polling would predict about the composition of the electorate. spell it out for us. >> absolutely. were seeing far greater early voting numbers than most of the mainstream models are predicting latinos, in particular, in florida and also in nevada are overperforming theres also the data polling from dan smith at the university of florida put out that 30% of the latinos were either new registrants or no voting history. ...

Screw the data up. >> sure. >> we know partisan affiliation, we know some demographic information but what we dont know, the campaigns know, the clinton campaign, the propensity. you want to them to vote early as opposed to to moving a person who is definitely going to vote on election day is moving it up two weeks. >> exactly. a vote on election day is worth the same amount as a vote cast early. there seems to be a lot of low-propensity voters voting early. heres the question for hillary clinto...

Its possible they pull from the same pool of people. who usually vote on election day. in other words, they are voting early instead of adding to the electorate. early suggestions suggest thats not the case. on thursday alone, 82.5% of hispanic early votes were considered low-propensity voters. thats literally nuts, in his words. those are people who may have voted in the last presidential elections, who may have been excluded from recent polls of likely florida voters. joining me now, co-founde...